Hi Everybody!
It would be easy to throw out a lot of projections every year and then just do the same thing the next year, without bothering to mention how accurate they were. For one thing it takes time from this upcoming season. It also means having to write on of the below posts
1) I did good, I’m writing about how cool I am, I must be an asshole.
2) I suck, never pay attention to my projections again
3) I did ok, like anyone else could have, so why bother doing these?
None of those are actually sounding very fun, but I also believe in accountability and learning, so I’m going to suck it up and write one of those. I don’t know which one yet. I know I got some stuff right and some wrong, but that’s not very helpful. My goal is to see how I can do better, and I am sure no matter how I did I can do better.
Because I am biased and In the hopes of having this at least be fun to read, I’m going to get some outside and unbiased opinions from my Imaginary Interlocutor and my Hamster.
I’m the Hamster and I have a name you know. I’m To Mini Therion .666, the little beast! I like to say things and ask questions that make sense to all our Hamster readers.
And you do it well.
I’m the Imaginary Interlocutor, and I am looking forward to brutally pointing out all of FD’s mistakes and errors with no mercy.
Sounds like someone wants to go back into The Box
Oh….I do not like The Box, please do not put me back in The Box!
Is The Box fun? Are you all alone, like in your happy place?
I’m not alone; all the other Imaginary Interlocutors hang out there when not in use. But it isn’t fun, because I have to wear the pointy hat and clown nose for winning the “Who Has the Stupidest Master” competition! The other Imaginary Interlocutors make fun of me. Just in case you wondered why I am sometimes in a bad mood and eager to nit pick.
Which you will do at least mostly politely and suitably for all readers.
My happy place has shredded up toilet paper and pumpkin seeds
I‘m going to start out by sucking up and pointing out that the short quarters and other disruptions pretty much hosed year to year comparisons.
Yeah, I’m sort of cheesed off about that. I finally break down and do a bunch of projections and the game changes enough to make evaluating them dodgy. I’m going to do it anyways and try to deal when possible. Have to see how that goes. I’m hoping most of the time we can still see something useful.
So, anyways, links to least season’s stuff for those who want to see it all for themselves, with each position.
Wow, you gonna do those again?
I’m working on them. So yeah, I think so. If my brain doesn’t escape.
Escape again you mean
Yes fine, anyways , here’s a link to the post where I talk about the whole Breakouts and Frogs things that will help all the comments about Frogger and being hit by beer trucks make sense.
Could you maybe recap?
Yeah, so when guys get old, like 29 or more they could go downhill at pretty much any time. So, it is like they have to cross a busy street each year and not get hit by the beer truck of age related decline. Each year harder and harder to make it across.
I see.
It makes more sense if you read the whole thing.
So hit by a beer truck means they drop off from being old?
Yes!
And TLA means True Level of Ability, which I talked about previously as well. It means how good I think someone really is and has been, trying to take out luck and circumstances.
So, at last, looking back. Doing every one in detail would be a bit much so, gonna try and figure out how to sum up, and hit the high and low points
And you know what? I got done the forwards and partway through the defenders and it was soooo boring. I’m throwing that all away and just summing up everyone: Feel free to follow the links and see for yourself if you want more detail.
Forwards
I got Whitfield right and if you took my advice and didnl;t bring him in you were happy. Same with Walters, although he wasn’t as bad as I feared he was not as good as paid for. I totally missed Petracca, Hawkins, and Greenwood. Hawkins, well no way to see that coming I know of. The others, I think predicting breakouts is hard. But, looking at a lot of the others, I did get a lot of “Will not break outs” correct, like Dawson, Parrish, and Billings.
Defenders
Jake Lloyd: I was WRONG! Wrong, wrongety wrong wrong wrong. I suspect some of that wrong is from the short quarters but I was very pessimistic and he averaged 122.2. As a defender.
I got the very obvious Bachar Houli and Shannon Hurn dropping off from age. I did predict Ryan breaking out and he did better than I thought, so I am very happy with that one. I also got Laird rebounding and happy there too. A lot of yes will be the sames like Danial and Stewart. Some easier than others. Missed Crisp bouncing back. Got Brodie S. not bouncing back right though. Totally missed Haynes breaking out. Was down on Mills while at the same time noting he could break out. Was wrong on Saad. A lot of guys I was right about but really anyone could have been, because obvious.
For these guys, “no evidence of a breakout either way” may be all I can really say, if they are not yet old.
Midfielders
Lachie Neale: I hate that the short quarters will prevent me from even knowing if I was right or not about him. A lot. My feeling is his game was perfect for the 2020 rules and he would have done well but not that well.
I was right about Fyfe and J Kelly., And Macrea, although Jack was easy, the other two less so.
Dunkley. Sigh. That bizarre loss to the Pies then 131, 128, and an injury. I was higher on him than any other player and then 2020 happened. He came back socing badly, and did better by the season’s end. I’d love to know how he would have done without that injury. Hates not knowing. I suppose his going into the ruck (!) meant he would not have broken out further.
Cripps I sure didn’t see coming. Dangerfield I think I did, although I had hoped he would be better he did just what was expected, and got a bit worse at 29. Right about The Bont and Treloar. .
Oliver, oh yes, I so want to talk about him. I said:
“He is just 22 and still has a near unlimited upside. He is clearly underpriced. He has played 66 out of a possible 66 games in the last three seasons. The Demons are very likely to be better this year. Odds are very high he ends up in the top 8. I think he won’t go boom and turn into an uber premium before he is 23, but I am not certain he’ll wait either. Might be the first 22 year old who goes boom, which is low % but there being any % is really remarkable. Of course I could be mad, and he’ll just bump his 2018 average up 2-5 points to 116-120. Again, if you have Danger in and not Oliver, why? In fact, if you have Lachie Whitfield in and not Oliver, why? Oliver is cheaper, way more durable, and with a better ceiling and a higher floor. Points do not care what line they come from. The fact the Whitfield is over 40% more owned than Oliver is a sign that people vastly over value a player having had the best average in their line the previous season.”
So, not Uber-Premium but up to 122, and the Oliver over Danger and Whitfield point was dead on. Points do not care what line they come from and people do vastly over value a player having had the best average in their line the previous season. Expect me to say that a lot more in the future and point back to this. Same with young vs old with similar prices. Those there bits might have been the most important things from all those write ups.
Lets see, right on Gaff, Zorko,and JPK,. Right-ish about Merrett. Wrong on Pendles, who for the first time threw up an unexpected score, although I still would not have brought him in. Matty C did in fact average 110 missing just one match, so small yay but still meh. Coniglio was a bit off, big shock. Sloane was only 29 but got hit by a beer truck. Darn. I expected a drop off but not that badly.
Conclusions
I did well enough to want to do them again. The main thing I missed was breakouts in the forwards, which had a lot to do with who did and did not go to the mids, which is hard to predict ahead of time. So, I think I’ll use hope and low hope in the future and not try to go there in any detail. I was able to see Ryan breakout in defense so I’ll see how things look there this season with a little more confidence. A lot of predictions are “yes he should keep it up” and “no he probably won’t keep it up”, and that is I think useful.
I’m very curious to see what people not me or the CTAP (Cow Talk Advisory Panel) think, so if anyone feels motivated to read last years stuff and point out anything I missed or got wrong, please feel free!
Thanks for reading!
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I found this such an illuminating approach and wonderful read last summer, so that the very first thing I did this season (even before the prices came out) was to do rmtbis exercise. Now, whenever momentum is swinging up and down on players during the preseason, I go back to this “bible” and recheck my calcs. Looking forward to seeing your projections this year, and I will line them up against my own.
This content is honestly gold. Absolutely love the concept of TLAs FD!