Hello again from the darkness!
I’ve gone back to the future for the first iteration of what will be the winning entry in AFL Supercoach 2025. All these extra trades and boosts that the powers that be have thrown at us recently have made midprice madness a more viable strategy. However, I reckon this year’s crop of rookies and cash cows are absolute mint, and make good old-fashioned GnR the way to go (with the notable exception of one line, which we’ll come to shortly).
So here ’tis, with the usual disclaimer that this will probably change radically after we actually see some pre-season footy. Father Dougal’s First Defenestration and all that.
Defenders
I am aware of some negative health reports around Flanders, but he’s there until I get further info because he’s obviously an easy swap out if need be. Sheezel, while slightly over-priced, is a star and probably my first picked on this line. Short will see plenty of it in a developing Tigers side, and I expect Mills to play close to 100% mid this year. All the rooks are a bit speculative, but Saints’ horror pre-season means Travaglia should get plenty of game time, and Leake has posted great numbers in the VFL.
Midfielders
Bont and Butters require no explanation. I waver on Merrett every year, don’t pick him and then he smashes it, so he’s in. I expect Oliver to bounce back this year, although M4 feels like it might be a spot too high and if I was going to restructure, it would be to try to get another bonafide premo mid in there.
I’ve picked a bunch of rookies at the high end of the price scale to give myself a bit of wiggle room if any of them don’t make the opening rounds, but I think most will. I’m not sold on Ashcroft’s role in such a strong side despite his obvious talent, but time will tell. I’m excited to see what Langford can do, early whispers are he’s a Tom Green-type so here’s hoping the intel is accurate.
Rucks
Big boppers only in the rucks. The only question mark for me is whether Gawn can keep on truckin’ at 33 years of age, but I really don’t like many of the other options here this year!
Forwards
So this is it, the make-or-break line where all the madness will happen. Yes, I know most of these guys are popular picks this year, but there is still so much risk attached because if it goes pear-shaped, it’s hard to see an escape route.
Horne-Francis seems like a solid pick based on expected CBAs and his ability to go forward and score. I’ve gone with the Three Amigos of Macrae, Smith and Daniel – all are questionable for different reasons, but on the plus side I have already made the requisite chicken sacrifice to the perpetually angry Supercoach Gods.
I have very little clue of what to do with the rookies on this line, and its entirely possible that none of the four I have selected will be in my team at the first bounce.
Flex
I like this kid and the DPP is a nice added bonus. I think he will make some useful coin this year.
Final Thoughts
See, I told you there would be cookies!
Look, as an old Supercoacher, my controversial take is that starting sides are nowhere near as crucial as they used to be in the glory days of 30 trades and no boosts. Now, if you screw up, you can just burn through a few in the early rounds and there’s very little penalty for doing so.
Having said that, I really do like the new concept of the flex player. Emergencies are one thing, but having a player subbed out for whatever reason can ruin a season and tips the scales too far towards luck rather than skill. So it’s nice to have a security blanket there that still requires you to pick a good player, but provides a bit of cover for that glorious uncertainty.
Byes? I tried to avoid picking too many from the cursed Round 3 bye teams, which was hard because that group features some very relevant players (including my Swans!). Apart from that, I really haven’t spent too much time poring over the draw because trades, boosts etc.
I’m excited! Can the season start tomorrow please?
DEF : can’t argue with Flanders/Sheezel, very ballsy running Short, Mills, Reid together with their combined injury history but could be good, definitely up-side for Short/Mills if they play most games, as you said, time will tell.
MID : solid first 3, not sure what your “ITB$$$” are but some of your high-end Rookies could become another Premo to bump Satan to M5, or big Ashcroft, Peatling etc
RUCK : yep, the 2 big boppers, and we pay up for them
FWD : first 4 same as me, likely same as most, SPP is a big watch for me too with Berry
FLEX : your guess as good as mine…another Premo or cash-gen?? Time will tell
When you said GnR you delivered!
A positive I see with a GnR structure is best 18 in rounds 2-4. You have 9 rookies in your team. So, in Rds 2-4 you are running 5 in R2, 6 in R3 and 4 in R4. Which does give you some cover with rookie fluctuations.
The big question for GnR is the quality of the rookies. We are told by experts that this is a stellar crop. But the big question for SC coaches is not their overall quality, but what do we get in the first 6-8 weeks. Can they score enough to justify their inflated price tag? Will they have the juicy scoring roles from the outset, or will they be allowed to ease their way into AFL life: forward flank roles in poor teams, sub risks ( both starting as sub and being subbed off).
There is an argument that we may have enough experienced players at rookie prices who might have a more established role that might be better value- Lynch, SPP, Martin, O’Driscoll, Tsatas, Hewett, Erasmus, Sheldrick, Knevitt, Sharp. Then there’s the 200kers like Milera, Schoenmaker, Hutchinson, Maric, McInnes. This might still allow GnR.
We have also seen in recent times the success of value hunting with starting sides. Not starting the high priced premiums and buying them when they get cheaper. I know every year is different and what applied one year may not work the next. Given the total combined value of all players stays the same, there is an argument that a large pool of rookies all improving in value means that the price of premiums comes down quicker.
There is a real chance that GnR works this year. If it does, this team will do well.
Hey Chillo. Big thumbs up from me, scary how similar our teams are. I have Flanders as flex and NWM in place of Short with a few others different, no Oliver etc. Question is do you think short is as good a pick as NWM, be nice to bank the 100k!
Tu Short
Td NWM
Great team! Cheers
Thanks Tinka. NWM is definitely the better scorer and a safer choice if you have the dough.
Great stuff, Chillo.
Hewett will be one of the fee positives for West Coast this year. Will get solid MID minutes. Like him in flex.
Sticking with Flanders is a huge call though. Back issue over the summer, reportedly a sweat for him to play R0.
Believe me, my finger is hovering over the trade button. If he doesn’t show something during the preseason games, the Freak from Fish Creek is done haha
I have a few alternatives lined up jic
Lol.
Don’t think he’s even playing the pre-season games, Chillo. “Racing for Round 0” is the official word.
Torn between his great profile and fixture and trying to be disciplined in not starting underdone players.
Re Flanders and flex possy
I’m looking at it as a premo position as it covers your lowest score anywhere so why put a rookie or potential up down scorer in the position?
If Flanders doesn’t get up I will be trading to the next best averaged D/P player.
Thoughts
Totally agree. I do not see the point of having a rookie as flex. Flex covers your worst scoring on field player. Rookies are notoriously fickle, 100 one week and 36 the next. Your flex just might have a bad week the same week as an injury forced sub on field. Maybe I don’t understand the flex role well enough.
No, the Flex is just another player. Having a rookie in the Flex is the same as having them in the mids.
Everyone starts with the same amount of money so if you put a premium in the flex, it likely just means that you have to play an extra rookie elsewhere.
The flexibility of the position is that you can put anyone there – DEF, MID, RUC or FWD. More about this later in the week…
No. The difference is that the flex covers all lines, I think this makes it the most powerful position on the field. It will be interesting to see when we get to the end of the year and understand better how the flex should be used. Right now we are all guessing a bit. Thanks for your team Chillo you are making me re-think my Short pick. Just took him out but maybe I should put him back in. Cheers.
“As an old Supercoacher”
– Love it!!
“I was there, 3000 years ago”
– Elrond/Chillo
Same as Wighty !!