The Fallen Premiums – Rd 11

Written by Chillo on June 5 2019

Ugh, byes. Here’s the usual spiel: don’t trade this week if you can absolutely avoid it. Anyone you bring in is going to miss a game at some stage in the next three weeks, so on a points-per-dollar basis, you’ll effectively be over-paying for them. Hopefully you’ve all planned your squad effectively over the past month (and have avoided getting hit with the injury stick) and have at least 18 active players this weekend.

Having dealt with that ugliness, here’s some glass half-full stuff. A considerable amount of thought and analysis goes into compiling the Fallen Premiums each week, but I readily admit that my strike rate is best described as “erratic”. So when stuff like Round 11 happens, you’ll have to excuse me if I want to tell you about it! Listed below are the players mentioned in last week’s edition, and their weekend scores:

Lloyd 123
Pendlebury 135
Gawn 158
Lobb 98
Darling 135
Gray 122

Bang! Now, just for the benefit of those who do feel the urge to trade in Week 1 of the byes, I was going to write about some Fallen Premiums. But when I combed through the list of available players that could be considered under-priced, it was the same names that we’ve all been discussing for the past month: Seagull Lloyd, Laird, Danger, and so on. These guys are all blue-chip stock and will look good in any team, but they’re not the point of difference that will win you a league or boost you up the rankings. And isn’t that what Supercoach is all about? Besides, there’s only so many different ways I can write about the same two ruckmen every week….

So instead of those guys, I decided to change it up and look at players who may not exactly fit the standard definition of a Fallen Premium, but who I consider to be under-priced and under-appreciated. I know that’s sort of straying into Rare Gems territory (sorry Jack!), but I honestly believe that some of these are viable candidates for a coveted top 10 spot in their position. Given the carnage a lot of us are facing in the backline this week, you’ll notice that particular emphasis is placed on defenders….so here they are!


As noted above, Jake LLOYD (SYD), $580 200 (-$28.0K), avg 116, BE 108 and Harris ANDREWS (BRL), $455 000 (-$25.1K), avg 91, BE 23 were here last week, and are still excellent options again this week. What about the rest?

Bachar HOULI (RIC), $541 100, avg 111, BE 42 – After an injury-riddled 2018 campaign, Bachar started this season with a price tag just south of $400K. If you jumped on that then massive congrats, because Houli is a proven performer who is revelling in his distributor role off the Tigers’ half back line. Since missing three weeks with a hamstring injury earlier this season, Bachar has tonned up five times, and has a running three round average of 127 points per game. Massive! The downsides here are worth considering though: one, Houli has missed 26 games in the past four seasons due a variety of soft-tissue injuries and other ailments. And two, the Tigers’ regular kick-in exponent Jayden Short is due back from a dislocated elbow in the second half of the year, which may or may not adversely affect Houli’s output. Currently at 9% ownership.

A familiar sight in 2019: Jezza II dobs another one.

Jeremy FINLAYSON (GWS), $493 100, avg 93, BE 81 – Anyone who has watched the Giants play recently will know that “the other Jeremy” is a very ordinary defender this year…because he’s actually a very, very good forward! Finlayson has crushed his new role by kicking 24 goals already this season, and providing a very impressive marking target alongside his buddies Cameron and Himmelberg up front for GWS. At only 1% ownership he’s a interesting point of difference, although the caveat here is that the biggest scores of his season have come against the weak Blues and Suns defences.

Lachie WELLER (GCS), $458 500, avg 90, BE 93 – Gold Coast gave up pick 2 – PICK 2 – for Weller a couple of seasons ago, and I thought they were mad. Then a few weeks ago, an SCT regular (who shall remain nameless) brought up Weller as a viable defender, and I thought they were madder. Yet now I look at Lachie’s numbers, with the more fancied options collapsing all around him, and I think wow! I was wrong both times! Weller’s lowest score in his past six starts is 87, he comes with highly useful DPP status if you’re a Duursma owner (and you probably are), and he won’t ever get tagged, because Gold Coast. 1% ownership.

Backing it up….
Shannon Hurn, $600K, BE 161
Lachie Whitfield, $564K, BE 157 *injured*
Zac Williams, $505K, BE 145


Stephen CONIGLIO (GWS), $510 100 (-$78.5K), avg 106, BE 22 – Yeah this is a week late and is the very definition of points chasing, but so what? Cogs is still ridiculously budget for a man of his talents as he amply demonstrated last week in razing the Suns for 207, the highest individual score of the season. With Josh Kelly back and firing he is the first choice for a tag at GWS. This potentially frees up Coniglio to do his thing in the midfield, and then drift forward to snipe at the goals as you saw him do last Saturday. And that high score came with Cogs still doing his best to shake off that niggling finger injury – imagine what he can do at full fitness!

Limbo land….
Lachie Neale, $606K, BE 169
Rory Sloane, $561K, BE 160
Clayton Oliver, $559K, BE 159
Adam Treloar, $531K, BE 156
Elliot Yeo, $583K, BE 143


….you know what to do.


Jack DARLING (WCE), $417 000 (-$54.7K), avg 77, BE 10 has hit form and is still priced well below his starting point. Check last week’s write-up for further details

All you need now is green body paint.

Tom HAWKINS (GEE), $507 800 (-$45.1K), avg 98, BE 90 – Hawkins is a key position forward. He’s also a key position forward in the best team in the comp. Which mean goals, and lots of them, which translates to lots of points. There aren’t many fullbacks going around that are a relevant physical matchup for the Tomahawk, and the Cats play their SC grand final against the Blues. Strongly, strongly consider.


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16 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 11”

  1. Finlayson is an interesting prospect. Will whitfields our see him swing down back more often? More or less points?

    TU: More
    TD: Less


    1. I won’t be doing it Brad, but the backline is such a war zone at the moment that all options need to be considered. If you have a lot of ground to make up, you need to take some chances on some PODs now. Finlayson could fit the bill.


  2. Great write up Chillo, I do feel like I’d be point chasing bringing in Cogs, but it almost looks irresistible. The guy can play and started at over 600k . Haven’t owned him to date, what’s been his drama for this season? And has the double ton reignited his season? Or is he a flat track bully?


    1. I find it funny that he has only scored over 105 in two games this year but is still averaging 106. Rollercoaster ride.


      1. I started with him, he’s one of my favourite players and he played great last year. A combination of poor DE and lowish contested possession rate means he usually struggles to go higher than 110 – unless he hits the scoreboard.
        With Kelly back, I think he’s a great option at this price, albeit I’m a tad biased!


        1. Bloody shame about cogs does amazing once i traded him bloody had to was faced with a doughnut few weeks ago with him and Matt crouch out 🙁 #heldthewrongbloke


        2. Another upside is that he’ll never cop the De Boer tag (well, not this year, anyway).


      2. I started with him, was becoming increasingly frustrated with his scores, was almost relieved when he became injured so I could justify trading him out – then died a little with his 207 last week, when 6 of my opponents had held him – needless to say, I lost all those league games, but still won’t be bringing him back in.


  3. I know with Cogs it looks like chasing points but he’s a genuine fallen premium too being $80K less than his starting price.

    I’m therefore very tempted at only $510k and it would take a lot to be talked out of it.

    Can anyone talk me out of it?


    1. You take out his 207 and hes only averaging 96.1, I was very tempted but in one of those valuable midfield spots I want a premium that is consistently tonning up


      1. Add in his first up 150 odd and the rest are pretty mediocre. Started with him this year and he has looked troubled with niggles through a lot of games. A bye and Kelly back should freshen him up, but I’m not certain i’d bring him in.


    2. I need someone to talk me out of it too.
      $510k for a potential top 10 mid for the remaining games is such value. Even if he just averages 105ish, I’d be perfectly happy with that for a M8.
      And with cash generation being hard to come by to finish off teams this season, people will have to start ‘settling’ for their D6/M8/F6 players. Bringing in Cogs as a roughy is looking to be worth the risk imo.


    3. Any actuary will tell you that observations so far outside normal should be ignored. So, I reckon compare him with others around the same price, and make your own value adjustments accordingly to arrive at a decision.
      Two scores over 105 including the 207.


  4. Great point about the R23 games Chillo. My team is perhaps a tad too heavy in Cats and Giants for the bye rounds, and looking at Cogs and Hawkins in future will make it more so. But looking at the R20-23 draw for those teams it looks good, especially for the Giants.


  5. Great write-up Chillo. All potentially good picks, it’s more a question of which is/are the best; a bit of precautionary judgment and a bucketload of luck required!
    Anyways, I need to wait for team drops with Whitfield OUT and MCrouch and even Grundy still not certain this week.
    Plenty of food for thought, thanks!


  6. Great stuff, Chillo. Two other players I’d throw up as options would be Jack Crisp (DEF, $458,500, round 13 bye), and Brandon Ellis (DEF, $451,500, round 14 bye).

    Crisp had his customary slow start to the year, averaging 88 over the first 6 rounds, then averaged 93 from rounds 7 through 10; his 73 on the weekend has brought his post-round-6 average down to 89, but, given that the slow start followed by a strong latter two thirds of the season is a pattern that repeats every year for him, there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t average at least 90-something from here on out. But there’s also another pattern that repeats every year that I think makes him a particularly attractive prospect: he never gets injured. Like, ever. As in, “hasn’t missed a game since 2014” ever. Given all the carnage in the backline this year, I think that’s a pretty attractive proposition.

    Ellis, too, never seems to get injured. And after a horrible 2018, he’s back in favour at Punt Rd, having been moved on to a wing, and given a license to run and carry and do the all stuff he’s actually good at, which has done wonders for his SuperCoach scores.

    I’ve got a couple of other good, cheap defenders up my sleeve, but you’ll have to read my Rare Gems column to find out who they are. 😉



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