The Fallen Premiums – Rd 8, 2021

Last week we were here for forwards. This week we run all the way up the other end of the field and see a plethora of defenders sticking their hands in the air. There are a couple of outstanding value picks in the back half this week, and a quick peek at the break-evens suggests there’s plenty more where that came from! Ladies and gentlemen, the Fallen Premiums.

DEFENDERS

Steven MAY (MEL), $408 600 (-$99.3K), avg 87, BE 5 – The textbook definition of a Fallen Premium this week, May’s last three scores read 145, 94….and 7. That single digit bomb came courtesy of a Tom Hawkins elbow that left poor Steve looking like he’d just called Mike Tyson a sissy. But after a week off, the Dees lynchpin has come back and barely missed a beat, highlighted by his 25 possession, 14 mark blitz of the Kangaroos in Hobart last weekend. Averaged 95 last season and his penchant for kick ins (he has taken 48% of Melbourne’s restarts this year) bodes well for his scoring again this year. Can you really ignore this once-in-a-season bargain? PS WHAT MONTH IS IT RIGHT NOW? OMG GOOSEBUMPS

Caleb DANIEL (WBD), $412 400 (-$133.1K), avg 81, BE 51 – It’s been the weirdest of weird seasons from the diminutive Dog in 2021. He started solidly enough – and then he scored 19 against Brisbane. 19! And he got himself suspended! For a dangerous tackle! How can a bloke in a helmet make a dangerous tackle???? Anyhow, last week’s 34 possession outburst against the Tigers went a long way to placating his long-suffering owners, and if you believe that was a sign of things to come then Caleb is unparalleled value this week (if you forget about May, that is….).

Callum MILLS (SYD), $528 800 (-$16K), avg 109, BE 78 – The ill-timed injury to Dane Rampe was supposed to be the end of the joy days for Mills owners this season, as Cal was going to have his scoring stifled by a forced move back into defence. Wrong! Scores of 136 and 101 in the past fortnight have Mills on the verge of returning to his original value, and with Rampe coming back early he must be a very tempting upgrade option this week. At least he would be, if he weren’t being ignored by 91% of Supercoaches! What’s the matter, don’t you like points?

Jayden SHORT (RIC), $480 300 (-$39K), avg 98, BE 109 – The biggest compliment I can give Shorty is that, as a non-owner, he has been simply infuriating to watch for most of the season. This weird little tiger-seagull hybrid (tigull? seager?) runs around the backline every week, racking up uncontested possessions and booting the air out of the footy, and nobody tries to stop him! Fourth in the league for metres gained, yet averages a measly 4.4 contested possessions per game. I think it’s time to buy.

Backing it up…
Jordan Ridley, $541K, BE 204 *blue light special next week*
Shannon Hurn, $477K, BE 170
Lachie Whitfield, $561K, BE 147

MIDFIELDERS

Tim KELLY  (WCE), $452 300 (-$65.1K), avg 92, BE 62 – How can anyone have 42 possessions in a game without taking a single mark? Did Kelly just run around the WACA deliberately dropping the ball every time someone kicked it to him? Seriously though, that’s a stupendous performance from a player who has struggled to match the standard he set while he was wearing the hoops. But there’s no denying his talent, and maybe something has finally clicked for TK? Injuries to key Eagles have given him more room to move and perhaps we can finally see Kelly’s best in blue and gold.

Andrew BRAYSHAW (FRE), $507 700 (-$36.5K), avg 103, BE 70 – I promise this is the last time I’m going to mention this young gun this year. This year’s performances suggest that if he’s not tagged, Brayshaw goes 110+. And how many decent taggers are there in the comp, anyway?

Josh KELLY (GWS), $508 600 (-$107K), avg 96, BE 105 – A strangely indifferent year from Jelly. No notable injury to speak of, which is odd, but he hasn’t scored well either, which is odder. BUT the return of Lachie Whitfield to the Giants’ lineup last week seemed to free up the free-running Kelly, who turned in his first score over the ton for the season. Insanely cheap now for someone of his capability, with a discount reaching into the triple figures, but still questions remain. Was last week a false dawn? Can the Giants’ win enough games to be a viable source of premiums? And just what mysterious strings will the mercurial Leon Cameron pull with his lineup this week?

Just quickly….James WORPEL ($355 300, avg 63, BE 23). Go on, please. I really want to see someone do this. I just don’t have the intestinal fortitude, but maybe you do?

Limbo land…
Jack Steele, $607K, BE 166
Jack Macrae, $666K, BE 150

RUCKS

Rowan MARSHALL (STK), $528 900 (-$28.3K), avg 86, BE 91 – I was all set to bring in Marshall this week, but last week’s rout of the Hawks left me a bit cold. Not that he played poorly – quite the opposite – but with Ryder back in the 22, I think Rowan still has a bit more cash to shed yet. Then again, his BE is very achievable this week and he does have that crucial, donut-saving R/F status this year. He will surely be in your team at some stage – why not now?

Timberrrr….
Max Gawn, $726K, BE 223

FORWARDS

No stand out options have emerged in the forward line this week, so let’s fire up the DeLorean and go back to last week….

Just quickly….Shai Bolton ($479 400, avg 92, BE 66), Steele Sidebottom ($494 500, avg 86, BE 91) and Dayne Zorko ($487 900, avg 94, BE 97) are among the last men standing in the decimated forward line this year. Bolton is my pick, but all three have sound scoring credentials and considering all those injuries, all will likely wind up among the top scoring forwards for the year.

Forward thinking….
Dustin Martin, $483K, BE 157
Taylor Walker, $464K, BE 132

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