Some sub-par premium scores are in the mix this round for popular and enticing players, which means there won’t be a shortage of upgrade targets over the coming weeks. If navigating COVID and a plethora of injuries hasn’t been enough to mess with your head, the impending byes should definitely set you over the edge. You can either plan accordingly for the byes, ensuring a nice balance is had and that any premiums being brought in only continue to compliment your structure. Or do what feels right, which is not even bat an eye, until we’re a week out and only fifteen players to be fielded are smiling back at you…
And with that grossly accurate tidbit, welcome to The Fallen-Premiums round 9!
More often than not, it’s rookie roulette that really gets me…
DEFENDERS
Jordan Dawson (ADE, 519.9k, (-$30.4k), 103.4 AVG, 75 BE) what can I say other than he’s played himself into “Sack Kennett @SCT” this week. 30 possessions, only 9 contested, (which has been a concern for him and his scoring). However, @87% DE, with a large kick/HB ratio, 10 marks, 577 metres gained and a goal to top it off. A well-deserved 134 points as a result in a 48-point loss to the Blues. Scoring relatively consistently, with a season-low of 81 points against the Dogs, it was a positive sign to see Dawson score 94 points when the Giants annihilated them in round 7. Many coaches have their eye on Dawson this week, and for me, I think you can lock him in for a solid 105 avg. from here-on out.
Jack “The Iron Man” Crisp (COL, 563.1k, (-$7.9k), 106 AVG, 104 BE) Mr. Consistent, Mr. Reliable, Mr. Stalwart… Anyway, before I get carried away, Jack “Mr Dependable” Crisp should be on the radar for anyone that’s seeking a defensive upgrade. The Iron Horse has played 171 consecutive games, yes 171. Iron Mike Tyson Jack Crisp is more durable than those old-school Nokia phones. With many opting to shift sub-par premiums such as Butters, Rowell etc. Crispy Steadfast makes for an ultra reliable selection. 121 points on the weekend against the Tigers and a 5-round average of 114.6. 563k presents unreal value for this Workhorse.
Backing it up….
Jack Sinclair, 540k, 147 BE
Steven May, 543k, 146 BE
Luke Ryan, 467k, 135 BE
Aaron Hall, 511k, 130 BE *injured*
MIDFIELDERS
Nat Fyfe who?
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE, 570.7k, (-$13.6k), 119.3 AVG, 122 BE) just a lazy 134 points against North in what was a blockbuster Friday night clash! It’s unbelievable to think Nat Fyfe is yet to return to this Fremantle team that’s on the rise. 34 possessions, (20 K’s, 14 HB’s), only 12 contested @74% DE. 10 clearances and 6 marks rounded off Brayshaw’s solid display. His 77 points last week may scare off potential buyers, but it should be noted, he had 5 FA’s and butchered the ball. @570k you’re getting Brayshaw in for superb value. However, with a 122 BE, coaches can opt to wait another week, but look at finding a spot for Brayshaw in your completed mids.
Christian Petracca (MEL, 559.2k, (-$47k), 114.4 AVG, 89 BE) The Dees are flying, and quite frankly, any and all Melbourne premiums present a solid selection in your side. 106 points for Tracca while going at 56% DE really sums up what owning The Norm Smith Medalist will be like. Those with Gawn and Oliver could still definitely fit him into their Midfield (assuming bye structure won’t be compromised). Monster scores can come against both bottom of the ladder teams and teams fighting to dethrone the Dees, with a semblance of consistency coming from a low-score of 85 points against Port (a game in-which Clarry scored 68) and a huge 163 points to open the season against the Dogs.
Jack Macrae (WBD, 630.2k, (-$69.7k), 125.4 AVG, 135 BE) only found in 53% of teams. Yes, there’s 47% of SC’ers that don’t have this man. I’ll re-iterate once more due to absurdity. Jack Macrae is barely in more teams than he’s not. 144 points on Friday night, making those that went with the VC on Jack happy buggers. Ultra-consistent and priced @630k, non-owners bring him in before he goes bezerk against the Pies on Friday.
Limbo Land….
Callum Mills, 686k, 201 BE
Tom Mitchell, 527k, 189 BE
Jack Steele, 637k, 175 BE
Zach Merrett, 600k, 143 BE
Ben Keays, 574k, 138 BE
I’m finally packing my picnic basket up off of the “Titch is still relevant” hill…
RUCKS
Sean Darcy (FRE, 595.6k, (-$47k), 107.2 AVG, 75 BE) with all the other ruckman going the way of the dodo bird, I’m thinking about starting a petition to rename the Ruck section to “Sean Darcy and others.” Firstly, I just want to mention, Fremantle games are a lot more fun to watch, when this behemoth is found sitting at R1 in your Supercoach team. 178 points! Darcy is well and truly SC relevant and a VC/C option, when he’s fit enough to play (notice my choice of words there). Missing the week prior vs The Cats with concussion protocols. Sean came right back in and reminded everyone what this colossal of a man can do.
Timberrrr….
Reilly O’Brien, 518k, 159 BE
Peter Ladhams, 514k, 150 BE
Tom Hickey, 536k, 137 BE *injured*
Brodie Grundy, 545k, 134 BE *injured*
Nic Naianui, 587k, 126 BE *injured*
FORWARDS
The only way to beat Leon Cameron and his magnet moves, is to not play.
Tim Taranto (GWS, 479.7k, (-$50k), 97 AVG, 99 BE) for those that have these GWS boys on your “never-again lists.” Just skip right ahead. On paper, Timmy is a great pick, (albeit suited more for fantasy). However, with Taranto and the GWS crew comes a serious risk of Leon Cameron and his shenanigans. Started the season off strong, averaging 106.4 points over the first 5 rounds. Round 6, we found Taranto parked forward against the Saints, and has bounced back with two semi-decent scores over the last two weeks with 97 points in the shellacking against the Crows and 84 points in the reverse-shellacking against the Cats. Ranked 7th for total-points in the FWD line. Taranto presents great value for a player that will push for top 6 total-points as a FWD.
Todd Goldstein (NTH, 456.5k, (-$92.3k), 87.5 AVG, -1 BE) I know what you’re thinking. “Abs, WTF, it isn’t 2019?” But, with Xerri going down with injury, Goldy has pumped out 125 points vs the Blues and 142 points vs Fremantle. Goldy could easily make 100k in the coming weeks prior to Xerri’s return, and from what the eye-test tells me. Goldstein should remain #1 ruck even when Xerri is ready to go. For those looking for a calculated-risk, could do worse than taking a punt on Goldstein.
Forward thinking…
Zac Bailey, 473k, 141 BE
Jake Stringer, 434k, 140 BE *injured*
Josh Dunkley, 600k, 133 BE
Tom Hawkins, 465k, 132 BE
Jordan De Goey, 444k, 125 BE
Tom Liberatore, 543k, 123 BE
Isaac Heeney, 512k, 120 BE
Dustin Martin, 504k, 103 BE
Welcome back to football Dusty!
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Great read. Really keen on Petracca this week.
I’ve got Butters, Titchell and Berry all giving me massive headaches. Would love some opinions on each of them because I’m considering trade boosting and getting rid of all 3 of them. Would bring in Rioli (downgrade) and then Petracca and another premo – likely Laird or Brayshaw, or even Dawson after reading this (swinging Daicos to the midfield).
I will only have 18 trades left which is a bit of a worry.
T/U – Boost and bring in the premos
T/D – Hold Butters
Comments on each of my 3 headaches would be greatly appreciated!
Upgrade/downgrade Berry
Get rookies off field before dealing with Butters.
Titch last to go = luxury trade.
Thanks for the feedback Baz, Berry definitely going down to Rioli.
I think my issue with Titchell is his breakeven is 189 so will fall to 470k over the next few weeks if he averages 100. If i trade him to Petracca I’m actually going to save a lot of money. Holding Butters, i will only have Daicos, Nic Martin, Caldwell and Hobbs on the field, who are all still good to make some cash for the next few weeks.
Will have $250k for an upgrade next week
There’s a fine line between last to go luxury trade and loosing a bucket load of money –
Mitchel is no longer premo and loosing cash like a freight train rolling down the hill.
Cut your losses and trade him before he looses everything.
Difference between Butters and Mitchell is that Mitchell still has decent cash – wait a week and thats gone to ..
I agree Titch is losing money.
I would argue that another difference between Mitchell & Butters is that Titch has been in the upper stratosphere before whereas Butters has not. We know that Titch can go there so I would back Titch to bounce back, and save myself a trade.
For clarification – I am playing for cash leagues so my mindset is geared around that. I concede that Titch is not appealing for those seeking overall glory.
I’m playing for cash leagues as well now, but i think it’s opinion based for Titch. Gotta ask yourself 3 questions to determine whether to hold or trade anyone.
1. Would you want him as M8 come finals? If yes, hold. If no, move onto question 2.
I think Titchell can average 100-105 max for the rest of the year, better options out there so for me its a no.
2. Is he going to go up in price? If yes, hold until he won’t go up anymore. If no, move onto question 3.
Dropping rapidly, BE 189.
3. Do you have enough trades to get rid of him?
At this stage of the season yes.
Therefore, he’s gotta go now, in my opinion.
Butters for example is a bit more tricky.
Ideally I don’t want him at F6 at the end of the year, but then moving onto question 2 he’s not going to drop that much in price. One score over 100 and he can start going back up, so it’s not that urgent to get rid of him.
Hi Warriors, Here’s my thoughts, take it with a grain of salt, I’ve been wrong heaps of times. It really depends if you need Titchell & Butters to be premos to get full premo by years end. If you do, then you have not much choice but to keep them and cross your fingers.
But if you do have enough trades to go sideways on them then I would. I’d definitely get rid of Titchell. Premos don’t get 40 unless injured. Therefore he is not a premo anymore and will likely lose 60k in the next 2 weeks. And Butters time is done, we gave him a try, it didn’t work, move on. Berry has done his job really well for us but could have gone out last week.
How does this sound?
Mitchell, Butters & Berry > Petracca, Rioli, English plus $59K
or
Mitchell, Butters & Berry > Petracca, Rioli, Darcy Cameron plus $263K
English is a set and forget top 6 forward with DPP ruck and could be due back this week.
Darcy Cameron is a little bit more risky but could average 100 from here and make $150k but cost you a trade if Grundy comes back in. Should get DPP ruck status at week 12?
Its sort of now or never, Titchell and Butters are probably going to lose $100k between them in the next fortnight and Berry about $20k.
Hey Dom, really appreciate the feedback and the suggestions!
I agree that Titchell has to go, he’s either playing injured or he’s no longer a premo, either way should go to Petracca now before losing cash (BE 189 vs Petracca BE 89)
So I’ve locked in Titchell to Petracca, Berry to Rioli.
I’ve really looked into Butters and Chad Cornes came out and said ‘He was scathing of his own performance. He just lacked a bit of hunt around his centre bounce game. We really want to continue with him on ball’. Breakeven of only 105 and playing North Melbourne this week, and still the possibility of being a strong F6 I think I am going to hold.
Darcy Cameron is someone I haven’t really thought about but he does look like a great cash grab/possible F6 for at least then next 8 weeks. So now I’m definitely considering it. I can upgrade Hugh Dixon and bring in Cameron, this leaves me with Cameron F6, Daicos D6 and then Butters, Caldwell and Martin M5-8 with a bit of flexibility through DPP for the byes.
What do you think of this option? Leaves me with no out and out rookies on the field and $136k in the bank.
If that works for your team and the rest of your set up, and through the byes, then I’d say it sounds a lot better than what you are looking at now. Dixon is not going to lose money while not playing, but its a bit of a worry him not getting a game last week when they have so many out. Trying to decipher Strnadicas job security myself to see if I go from Dixon to him.
It makes things look a lot better for the byes, and gives me some time to decide which forwards out of Butters, Martin, De Goey, Cameron to upgrade to premo mids or English when he comes back.
I think Dixon will struggle to get a consistant game, which will be dangerous for the byes. Reading on twitter some west coast fans filthy with his last performance. He must’ve been poor for his 42 and now isn’t playing over top ups.
Good luck mate!
English not playing this week.
I think I’m gunna get myself a Seagull.
Lloyd’s output is down on previous years, but I reckon worth the risk.
I’m thinking getting in Dawson this week and Lloyd in next week.
Crazy as it sounds, I actually think with the spectacular rookies we’ve had this year, and the extra trades (and trade flexibility), there’s not much need for me to look at fallen premiums any more!
Crisp, Short, Hewett, Bowey, Chapman, Daicos (Gibcus, McCartin)
Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Miller, Keays, Cripps, Brayshaw, N Martin (McComb, Carroll, Rioli)
Witts, Preuss (Hayes)
Dunkley, Heeney, Moore, Brodie, Cogs, Butters (De Koning, Rosas)
Thinking of using a Boost this week to flick Bowey for Sicily. Leaves me with $50k in the bank and 18 trades to facilitate the following:
Daicos -> Doc ($160k)
Chapman -> Stewart ($150k)
Martin -> Steele/Parish/Walsh/Green/Mills ($150-200k)
Preuss -> Gawn ($200k)
Conservatively, need to generate $700k from downgrades – Gibcus, McCartin, SDK and Hayes should all return $200k each. $100k spare to deal with Butters (English the likely target for coverage).
One down, one up from here on out should leave me with 9 trades for the run home, which should give me room to be pretty aggressive with trading out injured premos.
Crisp, Short, Hewett, Sicily, Stewart, Doc(Rookie, Rookie)
Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Miller, Keays, Cripps, Brayshaw, Steele? (McComb, Carroll, Rioli)
Witts, Gawn (Rookie)
Dunkley, Heeney, Moore, Brodie, Cogs, English (Rookie, Rosas)
Great planning BB, learnt something from that. Thanks
I will always read Fallen Premiums, as the best laid plans usually go out the window on a Thursday night when teams are announced. I admire you planning so far in advance – I find any planning I do usually ends up having to be disregarded on a weekly basis, with premiums out, injuries, Covid cases, night club idiots, dropped rookies. I now wait for Team announcements – then start to plan.
All so true- already English an out for this week with the manflu-
expect the unexpected!
Yeah, I’m typically a fly-by-the-seat-of-my-pants trader for the early part of the season. Don’t give much consideration to the byes.
Once I’m down to the last 3-5 upgrades and I’ve got rookies hitting their peak value I try and map it out though. Usually just in the little notes section they have in the Supercoach UI, ie:
Week 1:
Player A out ( $200k)
Player X in (-$180k)
($50k bank plus $20k = $70k bank)
Week 2:
Player B out ( $140k)
Player Y in (-$190k)
($70k bank minus $50k = $20k bank)
Usually try to be conservative with the numbers and leave a bit in the bank in case of major price anomalies. Usually update it weekly as well, and will swap certain players or even whole weeks around if BE’s force my hand.
Keeps me focused and allows me to judge where I can splurge a bit and where doing so is likely to cost me later. And as you say, things change and adaptation becomes necessary.
Maybe rethink Cogs he wont be a top 15fwd at seasons end but the rest looks very nice and similar to my current team.
Sicily,Crisp,Doc,Short,Sinclair, Hewett (SDK, PMac)
Neale,Oliver,Steele,JMac,Miller,Keays,Cripps,Green, (Clark,Carroll,Rioli)
Witts, Preuss (Hayes)
Dunkley,Parker,Heeney,Brodie,Gresham,NMartin (McDonald,Nankervis)
Gresham will become English when he comes back, Sinclair might become Lloyd and NMartin might become DMartin.
Undecided yet whether I’ll get Gawn or Darcy or maybe both by the end of byes
Gidday S, thats a very impressive team , can I ask what your ranking is & trades left. Feel free to tell me to p*** off.
101 after a bad week when everbody else had a good week 2 weeks ago, before that I was 23.
I’d be ranked a lot higher with better captains choices and if Cripps didn’t score 38 first time that I captained him
What’s your team name man?
Zorko slotting as my D5 this week. Looks to be over his calf issue and back to his old midfield/fwd role. $523K, DPP and a BE of 63.
Great minds Maz
Zorko gets a write up in Rare Gems out tomorrow morning. He certainly is value considering what he produced last year.
Who to choose in FWD’s
T/U – Goldstein
T/D – Taranto
Who do I choose on upgrades this week?
T/U – Zorko
T/D – Petracca