Value Picks – a series

Written by on March 11 2020

Hey all

How’s all that planning going?  Enjoying juggling all those wonderful rookies and wondering how the hell you’re gonna fit them all into your starting 30s?  No I thought not!  Cowpocalypse is here (cf. Salamander)

So as of Friday, there will be a series of stats articles (by position) of the best value picks or “Bargains” as Our great Father Dougal refers to them, that should be completed by as early next week as is possible.

There is plenty to mull over.  For now, we’re going to give you all the ‘averaged’ numbers from the Marsh Community Series (MCS) by line.  These exclude rookies, but include everyone else.  These lists contain ALL players, who IF they can score at the same rate (PPM) as they did in MCS, would make more than $130k.  If they’re not on the list, it is because their MCS output was not sufficient to make you $130k.  But that doesn’t mean they should simply be discarded.  Longer lists will be included when we look at the individual lines!

HEALTH WARNING: looking at last year’s numbers, you can expect a drop-off of anything from 10-35% in output come the real thing, with the level and intensity stepping up another notch and Premos kicking into gear (and stealing lots of points).  I should add that there will also be the odd bolter like Callum WILKIE, who did the complete opposite and doubled his JLT average in the real thing.  No wonder not many started him!

Here are the numbers, all ranked by potential $$s made should they continue performing as they did in the MCS:

Colour coding:  Black = insane, Dark Green = very good and Light Green = good.

Price coding: as before, but should be clear to see by comparison.

NB: if players have DPP they will appear in BOTH relevant positions


The DEFs review will look at Isaac CUMMING, John NOBLE, Jack LUKOSIUS, Adam CERRA and Dylan ROBERTON.  Please let me know in the comments if there is anyone else you’d like me to look at.


The MIDs review will look at Jackson HATELY and …

Not traditionally a line for ‘value’ picks, so should be approached with extreme caution!  Again, please state in the comments if there is someone you specifically want looked at.


I’ve included rookies here.  It’s a shame for SuperCoaches that Jarrod WITTS isn’t another 6-8wks away or Zac SMITH’d be locked in as my R2.  I wasn’t going to look at RUCs as so much has been written about them already, but please say if you want any of them looked at in detail.  What I would say is that outputs look great for a few of the bargains, but if you’re going down that path MAKE SURE you have a back-up plan in case they fall over.  Especially early!


How many is too many?!  Again, a lot has been said about quite a few of these, so I may have a look at a couple who seem to have gone under the radar.  Again, please let me know who you’d like to see covered off.

I will endeavour to get all this completed by next Tuesday at the latest.  Tomorrow, I will put up similar charts as above for all the rookie-priced players.

Meanwhile, enjoy chewing over these numbers yourselves!


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20 thoughts on “Value Picks – a series”

  1. Would love someone to have a good look at Brodie smith and tim English.
    I’ve had a good look.
    I can’t find a reason not to pick smith.
    The only thing stopping me picking English is Grundy/Gawn.


    1. Doing these numbers, I’m close to starting Brodie SMITH myself. He seems to have that zone-off role which is great for SC (am thinking Zac WILLIAMS type numbers).
      Tim ENGLISH may be a year early, but he’s only gonna improve and his back-end last year was clearly a sign of things to come. He’s bigger, stronger and fitter and look who’s hanging around his feet every bounce!!
      To hell with it, why not both!!

      You’ll need cajones to do it, but if you have doubts on Premo DEFs (I do now) and are not convinced with a GG RUC combo, then you’ve actually little to lose. Can’t see either going backwards in 2020. How far forward can they go? is the question we need to ask ourselves. And of course, the finite # of trades issue!


      1. Thanks AS. I usually play for overall so the size of the cajoles will indeed need to be big. I’m not sure they are.
        Thanks for your thoughts though. You’ve backed up my thoughts precisely.


        1. And now Mr Magnets has said that English’ll be damaging FWD when he’s given time down there!!
          I guess Bruce and Naughton/Lewis’ll be giving him the occasional chop out.


  2. Sam Naismith please. The extra funds saved on him instead of G&G to put on other lines is really enticing currently. If Naismith is to increase to the 450k-500k mark, averaging 90 as he looks capable of from his marsh performances it could be a worthy risk.


    1. No worries. I’ll do some price growth projections, so you can see how long he needs to last to be a good pick.


    2. I was super keen on Naismith, and I believe if you don’t go G&G you can compensate by going a 6-deep midfield (either way I want 7 Ubers from those 2 main lines).

      But then it dawned on me. It was Gawn & Green vs J.Kelly & Naismith. I just think the Gawn double is better and less risky and I was left with some spare change


  3. BZT not likely to make $130K ?? Reckon his js is good, even with hooker and ambrose out. I think he only needs to average 60…could get that just from intercept marks.


  4. Great stuff, AS. I’m looking forward to it.

    Also, just for the record, it was actually Father Dougal who first coined the term ‘cowpocalypse.’


  5. Can You please have a look at Darcy MacPherson? I was advised he could go big this year. GC and all. I may go 4 mids and a potential breakout to save money toward expensive playing rookies



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