Cow Talk – Round 14

Written by Father Dougal on June 22 2016

Small or far away – Father Dougal on cows.

Week 14, the lucky week. I hope. Most of us are ready for a week that goes well. At least this is national upgrade week; when everyone who downgraded last week spends their money this week on players who have had their R13 bye.

Defenders

McDonald-Tipungwuti scored a nice 74 and lost less than $1000 in value. He is the poster boy for priced to his average right now. He’s ripe and ready for harvest. I suspect in practice the odds of him having a bad match that costs coin are higher than him going up or even staying even, but we all know how seriously to take my predictions! His bye is this week, so best time to sell. At his current average of 76.42:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

384,200     ——
381,379 -2,821 -2,821 Eagles
377,751 -3,628 -6,449 Saints
376,160 -1,591 -8,040 Tigers

Adams really did play this week, I double checked. Sadly just 62 points; his lowest score all season. He still went up a tiny bit, so thank you for making it to the Byes without a price drop. All of us who own him and McD-T face an interesting questions on which one to sell, assuming you are only selling one.   At his current average of 83.7:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

371,500     ——
372,230 730 730 Swans
372,195 -36 695 Tigers
381,668 9,473 10,168 Suns

M. Brown did not make his break even of 71 and dropped about $5k. Oh well. He looks poised to make it back, but that seems like a non-event. With him bringing in about $100,000 less than McD-T and Adams you may not be able to trade him out, but he seems pretty done.  At his current average of 58.15:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

268,400     ——
276,141 7,741 7,741 Eagles
278,359 2,217 9,959 Saints
279,607 1,249 11,207 Tigers

Dea  Looks pretty safe to hold up to his bye. Yeah, because guys who do not play do not change in price. Or count for your best 18, which last week was a big deal. Ready to go if you own him still. I’d drop him before McD-T and Adams, since he is close to the same price with less chance of scoring well.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Hartley still has a 19 in his three round average and is due to lose more the next time he plays. Much like Brown, he ought to go if you can accept his price being about $100,000 lower than McD-T and Adams.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

274,800     ——
259,997 -14,803 -14,803 Eagles
267,838 7,840 -6,962 Saints
276,451 8,614 1,651 Tigers

Byrne did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Weitering did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Byrne-Jones No reason to get out before his bye next week and no reason to keep him past it.  Well, unless he spuds up and goes for 49. Blah. At his current average of 71.91:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

328,400     ——
319,842 -8,558 -8,558 Lions
317,931 -1,911 -10,469 Hawks
326,564 8,633 -1,836 Roos

Ruggles is not ripe I hope, because his price is not very exciting. Of course his price is higher than say, Brown or Hewett. And shows signs of still going up.  At his current average of 61:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

292,828 22,128 22,128 Saints
      ——-
295,872 3,044 25,172 Swans
300238 4,367 29,538 Dockers

Midfielders

Hewett did play and scored a 51. Blah. He sure has had a lot of bad scores this season. A few good ones, but he really has not lived up to what we, or at least I, kept thinking could do. He’s out of my team now, and if he is still in yours you can still get him out before another big price drop. At his current average of 55.64:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

260,600     ——
241,766 -18,834 -18,834 Dogs
247,554 5,788 -13,046 Cats
253,810 6,256 -6,790 Hawks

Parish is yet another Bomber who is ready to go, but he does have some upside so holding him is not a bad thing if, if that is, you have more cows in more urgent need of harvesting. At his current average of 69.58:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

318,800     ——
319,694 894 894 Eagles
317,537 -2,156 -1,263 Saints
323,222 5,685 4,422 Tigers

Mills went for 89, so either a nice bump before being traded out or a reason to keep him instead of a R14 guy who is less likely to keep his value. At his current average of 70.42:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

342,900     ——
352,538 9,638 9,638 Dogs
358,007 5,468 15,107 Cats
353,864 -4,142 10,964 Hawks

Davis did not play last week.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Oliver  is sort of like all the Bombers ready to be culled, aside from his being a Demon. Well, technically a demon. I mean on the field his performance doesn’t even rate fiend. Realistically, he’s more a minor imp. Maybe one responsible for age inappropriate Barbie dolls or something on those lines. At his current average of 64.5:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

308,600     ——
295,576 -13,024 -13,024 Crows
290,225 -5,351 -18,375 Dockers
296,605 6,380 -11,995 Saints

J Smith  Did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Hopper joins us and looks to be rising up still.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

289,307 10,507 10,507 Blues
      ——
305,843 16,536 27,043 Pies
320268 14,425 41,468 Lions

Rucks

Cox did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Forwards

Kerridge did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Kennedy scored a 40. Crap. Crap, not tolerable, but Crap. At his current average of 72.25:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

321,200     ——
324,802 3,602 3,602 Crows
317,911 -6,891 -3,289 Dockers
326,997 9,086 5,797 Saints

 

McCarthy only scored 38 37, so who knows how long he’ll stay in the side. Of course they won, so maybe that won’t matter. I’m gonna say the odds of him having his name combined with another Geelong player are about zero, unless they get married, in which case 50/50. Oh, and am I the only one who thinks that “Dangerwood” sounds like some form of tragic Viagra mishap? And if I wasn’t before, am I now? Oh, and good luck not thinking of that every time you hear “Dangerwood” for the rest of your life. I probably should have thought of that before I wrote all that. I’m too lazy to go back and think of something else though. Gonna be a rough confession this year. Not exactly on topic either, but there’s not much I can say about McCarthy at this point and I feel like I should say something for every player. At his current average of 53.875:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

218354 -1,646 -1,646 Saints
      ——-
222,625 4,271 2,625 Swans
232,375 9,749 12,375 Dockers

Menadue did not play.

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

McGovern did not play

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

Petracca may well be ripe just as his bye arrives. Still likely to rise a bit after his bye if you need to keep him. And, um, “something.” At his current average of 77.71:

Price                   Change                          Total Change            Opponent

351,100     ——
363,435 12,335 12,335 Crows
367,267 3,833 16,167 Dockers
371,902 4,635 20,802 Saints

Random Cow Thoughts

As always, please let me know if I missed someone or otherwise messed something up.

 

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9 thoughts on “Cow Talk – Round 14”

  1. I’ve made a meal of it this season. Forwards and Backs are fully upgraded but I still need 3 premos in the mids. No DPP links.

    Byrne-Jones and Kennedy are both ripe, Davis is kind of ripe in the mids.

    Should I just try and get rid of DBJ and Kennedy for whatever rookies I can and then upgrade mids next week? Or do I get rid of Davis along with one of the others?

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  2. Hello Happy Customer

    I sell to you 3 Dangerwood pills for $19.95.

    Keep your woman happy long time.

    Remember, if there is no danger, there is no wood!

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  3. For those with Davis, and Petracca in fwd line cover. Next week id Be looking to trade Davis to T.Phillips for $190 to $200k and then upgrading Petracca to Premo in either mids or fwd lines as needed.

    If like me both forward and mids are fine, then just the trade of Davis to Phillips will be a nice DPP link with Petracca to cover you through till end of year across two lines.

    DBJ and Tippa should be culled by now as this write up suggests espesh since both have their bye round this week. Upgrading to Laird, Simpson or Docherty this week gets best out of byes. Next week your options open up to Boyd and Pittard as well who have bye this week. Really if you should be looking at one of those 5 if you dont have them.

    Brown has reached break even and will hover around that price. Needs a big game 90-100s to get near the $300k mark. If plenty of trades burn to get the cash, or if low on trades just hold him as cover. The most you can get per trade now is important.

    Weiter, Dea, could hold but prob best to move them on to guaranteed premo.

    Smith had big game tonight, can still hold thru byes as will be important cover, still making money. Depends on how aggressive you are, if you can afford Hannerz for example then you have to ask is the extra $10k this week and $10k the next or so really worth it? Come end of byes most sides will be upgraded. Hanging on for a few thousand here and there might cost you after byes.

    You shouldnt still have any of the starting rookies Hewett, Papley, Oliver, Parish, Kennedy still in your side by now.

    Hopper is a unique, out this week, bye next week, only made $80-90k, might be they giving him an extra rest as a youngster and will play round 16? will need to wait till then as still has coin to make? or have you seen enough/those two weeks too much down time? Tough call? at this stage of the game id be moving him on, if you have a Davis, Petracca, or Smith that needs milking priority then holding will be easier.

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Cow Talk – Round 14

Written by Father Dougal on July 1 2015

Small or Far Away – Father Dougal on Cows

Yet again, for the third and hopefully last week, not much bovine action with many cows not playing due to byes and injuries. Lets enjoy our imminent return to normalcy and look at how our cows have grown or shrunk over the byes

Defenders

Oxley Only played a part match and scored just 51. Since that 51 replaced his 25 his price rose anyway. Since his next scores are going to be replacing a 122 and 105, he has a BR of 89 and may drop some over the next few weeks. If he goes for his average of 81 he’ll drop $3,100 and $12,400 before going back up $3,300. He’ll face the Hawks, Power, and the Eagles, so not an easy stretch for Pies players.

Brown is due to drop based on his average of 53. He’ll lose $2,300 then 10,200 and then $1,700 if he goes as he has been. At this point though, who has Brown for cash and not cover?

McIntosh did must have liked his wombat cuddle week 12 because he did another one last week with a 34. With two bad scores in a row he is likely to drop again with a BE of 96 – which is possible for him to make. If he hits his average of 63 he’ll go -$13,700, -$200, then $12,100. Unless you plan to keep him long term, I’d think about selling him as soon as he has a big score. He looks like his PTA should be a bit over $300,000 and since his scores vary a lot, he should at some point shoot past that. Of course he’ll drop below that too, like he is now. Hopefully he is on your bench and you can afford to wait.

Saad made 70 and seems destined to hover around $400,000 and a bit. He looks to be pretty consistent; scoring 70-100ish every week. I suspect that most people who still have him plan to keep him, but in case you still want to harvest him: at his average of 82 he’ll go $6,300 then -$1,100 then $4,300.

Midfielders

Ellis-Yolman went for 63 and now has a BE of 70. I have no idea if his recent lower scores are random or mean something. Will Sloane out help him? No clue. So useful I am! But I can say that if he can make his average of 80 he’s going to slowly rise. Up $4,100, $4,500, and $10,600. If he only makes 70s he’ll only lose about $2,200 over the next three weeks. He’s another player that if you can afford to keep might go up lots after a big match. Well, that describes most players. CEY has gone big in the past though, so hoping he does is not a long shot.

Cripps is now a steer. Good on all those who kept him.

Miller joined the wombat club with a 39. his recent form has been blah, but with a BE of 78 he could go either way. His average is 68.4 which would have him move a bit if he makes it: $-3,900, $-8,600, and then $5,900.

Vandenberg didn’t play because he is still hurt. I hope you have cashed him in and made use of all the lovely, lovely money.

Forwards

Hogan is still hurt. If he keeps up his 78 average when he returns he’ll go $-6,800, $14,800, and $4,900.

Clark is still hurt. When he gets back, if he scores at his average of 64 he’ll go $3,800 $-7,900 $4,900.

Krakouer had his bye. Same thoughts as last week. If you kept him this long you should keep him longer as those low scores are due to leave his three week average which should see his price rise. If he makes his not high average of 66 he will make $4,900, $23,700, and $7,700. That’s $36,300 over the next three rounds with slow increases after that. Since his average includes those sub and injury scores, I can see him doing better and for the next few weeks he could make some money.

Tarrant also has his bye and thus no changes to projections. If he scores 60s coming back from the bye he’ll drop $6,800 and $5,100.

Lonie played and went for 55 with a new BE of 34. He may be about up to his final PTA. If he makes his average of 58, he’ll go up $10,200, then down $1,200, then up $300 and up $100 or $200 a week afterwards. If you think he is going to average about 60 then he is another guy to sell if he has a well above average match or two. If you need cash, he would be a good cull after next week.

 

Random Cow Thoughts:

Once again there are still a lot of calves playing, mostly, now, but none fat enough to harvest. Boston is shooting up past the rest and might well make cow next week. I really hope a few more players move up to cow, since I own a lot of the ones who are hovering around $200k! Steele looks good, but with only one match played even a best case won’t have him as a cow for many weeks.

 

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Author: Father Dougal

First time player, new to both Supercoach and the AFL. Having fun though! Now a second time player. Let's see if I learned anything! Oh, I learned a little. Now a third year player and running out of excuses.



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