First Glance FWDs – Ben & Freo Tragic

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 15 2019

I keep telling you, Coaches…….if you go to this much effort in the comments then you’ll probably end up with your own thread.  😉

I’ll say it again……………our greatest strength at SCT is that literally ANYONE can write articles providing any statistics given are accurate.  If you get the urge to write something then send it through to me at ‘schwarzwalder ‘at’ supercoachtalk ‘dot’ com.

 

BEN‘S FIRST GLANCE AT FWDs

I’m on a completely different wavelength to everyone else apparently, cos I’m having a real hard time being able to select forward premos with confidence outside of Danger and Heeney. With this in mind, I’m going to list every major FWD premo and what my issue with them is, and hopefully a few of you can talk me into some of them.

Tom Hawkins – Had a stellar year last year, but no indication he can back it up as it was his best season by about 20ppg, and it’s odd for players to “break out” so  < late in their career. Also KPP.

Justin Westhoff – With Lycett in the team, he won’t get as much opportunity in the ruck. Role also unclear. Also a KPP.

Lance Franklin – Seems to be carrying something all the time these days, also an absolute rollercoaster and will drop in price significantly at some point during the season.

Sam Menegola – Also a rollercoaster who may bottom out, and unsure if he’ll get midfield minutes with the addition of Dahl.

Devon Smith – Probably the premo I’m closest to picking at F3, pretty consistent scores, however how much midfield time will he get this year with Shiel coming in and younger players like Langford and McGrath likely to get a run?

Tom McDonald – Rollercoaster KPP who will bottom out at some point, also didn’t finish the year super strong.

Robbie Gray – If he was guaranteed permanent spot in the midfield he’d be a no-brainer, but unfortunately as long as he splits his time between mid and forward I’m steering clear.

Jack Gunston – Too up and down, changes roles too much to be considered.

David Mundy – Getting up there in age and likely to be pushed out of the midfield by Freo’s young guns.

Luke Breust – Again, way too up and down, and still unsure if he truly broke out or just had a big purple patch in the middle of the season.

Josh Dunkley/Toby McLean/Mitch Wallis – All guns when played in the midfield, but Mr. Magnets really makes me nervous about starting any of them.

Tim Kelly – Another premo I’m strongly considering, but again was very up and down last year, he’ll probably drop in price at some point during the year.

Jack Riewoldt – Getting older and will have to share points with Lynch this year. Also KPP.

Jesse Hogan – KPP, injury prone, and a new club. Too many question marks.

Mitch Robinson – Injury prone and inconsistent, may get pushed out of the midfield by Neale and young guns.

Kane Lambert – Far too inconsistent and burned me last year when I started with him. No thanks.

Chad Wingard – Another I’m strongly considering but too many question marks around role, effort level, and Hawthorn’s midfield as a whole without Titch.

I honestly cannot pick any of these players in confidence at the moment, surely someone can talk me into one of them?

 

FREO TRAGIC‘S FIRST GLANCE – FWDs

Ben.

You make some great points re forwards this year.

When I am deciding on forwards , I find it easier to rate them out of 10 and list them by their bye weeks.You only really want to start 2 at the most from any Bye week. This leaves you the most options when upgrading pre Byes. So for me the 3/4 best missing each round are:

Round 12 bye.

D. Smith. $531 300. (9/10)

Tackle machine. Did enough last year to deserve his midfield spot. I think he is a very safe bet for top6 forward this year.

R Gray. $525 500. (8.5/10)

With Wingard and Polec gone, surely he needs to spend more time in the midfield. Even if he doesn’t he has the talent to average 95+ as a full time forward.

D Mundy $ 520 900. (8/10)

Just like Walters he will spit his time forward and mid, but I rate Mundy higher due to his durability. Doesn’t have a huge ceiling but rarely puts up a stinker either.

Wingard $481 100. (7.5/10)

Is a close 4th and may thrive with Titch missing.

Round 13 Bye:

Danger $660 500. (10/10)

First picked. Lock, Enough said.

Heeney $529 200. (9.5/10)

Training with the midfield group. The kids got all the talent in the world. I smell a breakout to uber premium. Lock

Menegola $543 100. (8/10)

Solid performer. No value at that price but a pretty safe bet to be top 10 forward again.

Round 14 Bye.

Nobody really stands out here unfortunately. I would prefer to start a round 14 bye premo. It just leaves more options when upgrading. Maybe one of these guys?

Toby Greene $354 600. and Tom Lynch $425 600.

Both underpriced but come with some risk attached. Toby’s body (and mind sometimes) are made of crepe paper. Lynch is no certainty to average 95+ let alone be top 10 forward.
I will only really be considering these guys as a F4 if we have a forward rookie drought.

So (for now) I’m starting Danger , Smith and Heeney.

Then looking at R Gray or maybe Wingard as my pre Bye upgrade.

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17 thoughts on “First Glance FWDs – Ben & Freo Tragic”

  1. Ok, I should add, since I’ve posted this, I have been talked into either one of Gray or Smith.

    As FT pointed out, if Gray doesn’t get a full-time gig in the middle with both Polec and Wingard now gone, Hinkley has well and truly lost his marbles. So for now, I’ve selected him with the pretense that he has a full-time gig in the middle.

    If in JLT he splits his time between forward and middle, I’ll select Smith instead. I’ve talked myself into him because the Bombers are in win-now mode, which means they’ll hopefully rather play Smith in the middle over getting their youngsters mid minutes. And even if he does get less mid time, it’s not going to stop him from tackling everything in sight.

    So although I still stand by everything else I said, I’ve definitely changed my mind on those two.

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    1. now you’ve got me thinking about Robbie Gray. It’s only his age that concerns me, but you’d think he is bound for more MID-time. Especially the way they have recruited strongly for their DEF and FWD lines, suggests they NEED Robbie back in the middle!

      And they do. Rockliff is broken. I’d say they are getting ever closer to having the weakest midfield in the comp and are no chance of making the 8 in 2019. Will be watching and listening for any news/insights like a hawk.

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    2. The problem with Robbie is he’s got groin issues. He’s played more time forward in the last two years because he can’t play entire games in the midfield anymore. His time midfield is entirely dependent on how his groin holds up and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a repeat of last year where he starts in the midfield early in the year up until he starts to feel it inhibiting him again and then spends more time forward.

      I don’t see Robbie returning to his full time mid scoring levels any time soon.

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      1. Very Interesting Duffer.

        I still feel he has probably the highest ceiling outside of Danger and Buddy in the forward line.

        Risky yes, but certainly capable of great things. If he starts the year on fire. Smith might seem the boring choice.

        I’m still starting Smith.

        Durability over uncertainty is my motto when picking starting Premos.

        Hey and thanks to Schwartz ,Ben,( we get our own thread Shucks), allsaints, Anon, Salamanda, Tof, Whitey, Duffer,Phil and Shaggy (I know there’s more sorry guys.)

        For all the great Info and banter over the off season. I’m really looking forward to more team reviews.

        Bring on 2019!

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        1. Love ya work FT (without wanting to start a love-in). There are so many SCTers who talk a sh!tload of sense that it’s hard to not keep coming back. Everyone you mention and a bucketload more … here’s to an awesome 2019.

          I want to see two SCTers MINIMUM in the top 10 come season’s end, and one win the flag($50k). It’ll be a huge ‘tip your hat’ moment to the runners and contributors of this awesome site.

          Let’s make it happen.

          PS I’ve just had to endure my neighbours (three kids) having sex in the pool (the kids are asleep obviously!). Chat soon 🙂

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          1. Here’s my tip, next time your neighbours get frisky , try putting Barry White on your stereo ( Loud) and rocking around in your best Hugh Heffner robe with a bottle of champagne under your arm!

            That should freak them out enough to stop their night time outdoor activities. 🙂

            Make sure the kids are asleep though.

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  2. Just reminiscing some old buddy things, he has been reasonably durable the last 3 seasons. Thinking about it. But he will undoubtedly be gettable for around 400 later on.

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  3. I’m hoping Wingard plays perma mid with Titch gone. Last year in games of 25+ disposals he averaged 110.4 and in his best year (2015) he averaged a huge 121.5 in games over 25 touches. Pretty tasty numbers if you ask me. I think the Hawks have a very solid forward line and are lacking some depth in the middle of the park. Will be watching JLT very closely!

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    1. Edit: disregard the 2015 stats… only two games of 25 touches or over. A bit of a larger sample size last year of 5 games. Point still stands though… plenty of touches tends to correlate with big scores for Wingard

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      1. Great points Ash. What I like about talent going to HAW is that nothing less than 110% will do. Yes, Wingard, but that also applies to the lazy Scrimshaw (happy to be home I hear). Family friends an all (Clarkson’s)
        If only Worpel had played 6 games or less last year, he’d be the #1 mid-price pick in 2019 ($100k cheaper). He’s so on the cusp, but his price is horrible …

        Will watch the JLT with a view to putting Wingard ahead of any other Rd12 FWD and that includes Smith or Dunkley. If he gets the role, 100+ minimum and off a low price. Let’s not be naive, he knew about the interest back half last year and showed what we all know he’s capable of. 95% won’t do!

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  4. I’m finding it hard to go 3-4 deep in the fwd line. Every time I just end up thinking instead of this player I might as well put Merritt into the midfield instead.

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  5. I hear you Tof.

    My current priority is starting the Grundy/ Goldie ruck combo, whilst also keeping Merrett at M5 and Miles at M6 (Both seem to much value to ignore.)

    This is really stretching my Forward and Defence budgets very thin.
    lets hope there’s enough rookie talent to make it work.

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  6. He’s not a top-line forward, but I have long thought Jack Gunston to be the most underrated player in SuperCoach. He consistently averages around 90 (± 5 points), regardless of role, and virtually never misses games. He’ll probably have a bad game and drop in price at some point throughout the season, but if there is a shortage of forward rookies, or you desperately want a premium forward with a round-13 bye, he’ll be a great pick at anywhere from F4 down.

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