2021 Forward Projections Group 2

Hi Everybody!

Same warnings as always, this is me making up numbers based on semi-educated guess. But hopefully useful anyways. 

 

Jack Ziebell

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2009	10	60.4	18
2010	14	62.3	19
2011	21	79	20
2012	16	81.1	21
2013	18	95.2	22	87
2014	17	83.6	23	88
2015	21	86.7	24	89
2016	22	94.5	25	89
2017	19	89.8	26	88
2018	22	84.5	27	88
2019	22	90.9	28	87
2020	8	48	29	86
		84-92		85

As close to a must buy as we’re likely to see.  He has scored above 80 for eight year prior to 2020, and is priced at 48. That’s a minimum of 32 under and could be more. Unless he has lingering health issues, which as far as I know he does not, then he should bounce far back. He is 30, so in theory could have beer truck issues, but an 80 would be beer truck issues from his 2015-2019 scores.

 

Jordan De Goey

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2015	16	59	18
2016	20	75.7	19
2017	14	79	20
2018	17	87.8	21	87
2019	16	87.2	22	88
2020	8	81	23	89
		87-97		90

Just 24, and has only played 81 games.  Last year was, to be polite, rather messed up. Feels like 88ish is his established level and he could be getting better. The Pies do seem to need him to perform, and he will get the chance to. His reliable upside is about ten points, which is nice. Not thrilling, but nice. His possible upside is more like twenty points which is past nice. Pretty decent shot at a season keeper for a good discount. Not sure thing. 

 

Tom Hawkins

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2007	9	51.9	18
2008	10	69.7	19
2009	21	71.5	20
2010	15	78.3	21
2011	15	69.6	22
2012	21	95.1	23	87
2013	20	66.7	24	87
2014	22	87.1	25	87
2015	19	79.7	26	87
2016	21	84.5	27	87
2017	19	86.2	28	87
2018	20	101.8	29	95
2019	22	85.6	30	95
2020	17	105.8	31	95
		90-105		95

Wow, nice career high at 31. As a forward. My. Not gonna see that happen a lot. I strongly suspect he overperformed and will fall back some this season. It is possible he puts up a new career high at 32, he is a real talent so it’s not completely crazy. Of course that’s sort of like a frog hopping into the cab of the beer truck,  wrestling control from the driver, and heading off into the sunset with plans for an epic party. Probably could get a lot of Frogs feeling no pain with a truck full of beer. Anyways, It is a huge risk to start him, and I wouldn’t take it.  But, if he has a little run of bad scores I’d very much think about jumping on at that point. 

 

Joe Daniher

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	5	50.6	19
2014	20	59.4	20
2015	22	60.7	21	60
2016	22	68.8	22	70
2017	22	86	23	85
2018	7	56.9	24	85
2019	4	62.2	25	85
2020	4	48.2	26	85
		65-85		85

Ah, at last we come to Joe “The Groin Injury That Walks Like A Man” Daniher. So, first off, I can’t address his chances of getting injured again, at least not more than I just did. So, assuming he stays healthy, how well will he do?  At 23 he went for 86. Ok, at 27 he can probably go for 86. He could go a bit more. He does play for the Lions now, and they should be able to feed him the ball. He could also go for a lot less. As a Cow-like object, he just needs a short run of scoring at the right time to make decent cash. That means he has to play 3-4 rounds and then have a big score or two, without follow on terrible scores to undo the big ones. Certainly possible. If I knew he was healthy then I’d be willing to risk him. He has been playing over the last three years, so it isn’t like he was out of the game for all that time. I suppose I am saying he should perform around his established level as long as he is healthy. 

 

Tom Phillips

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2016	6	65.5	19	65
2017	18	75.9	20	75
2018	22	90.1	21	85
2019	22	83	22	85
2020	15	74.9	23	85
		85-95		85

If his 2018 average of 90 was a fluke, I don’t think it was a big one. He is just 24 now, and with a new team that is likely to play him every match as best 18. Going back to his 2018 level seems quite possible and going past it seems likely, since 24 v 21. Like De Goey, the question is how underpriced is he? Certainly a good option.

 

Jarman Impey

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	18	48.6	18
2015	17	52.4	19
2016	20	62.3	20	60
2017	19	61.1	21	64
2018	22	68.3	22	68
2019	17	74.1	23	72
2020	5	39.6	24	72
		65-75		72

Hmm. Career high average of 74 at age 23. Not super exciting. But, he is currently priced at a 40 average, and that’s a long way below 74. Or 70.  I may be talking myself into him.  If he goes at 60, that, not great but not terrible and again, only needs a good high score at the right time. Probably won’t average as well or peak as high as Danier, but he also doesn;t have that injury history. 

 

Orazio Fantasia

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	3	31.3	18
2015	5	65.2	19	65
2016	19	69.6	20	70
2017	19	73.5	21	75
2018	13	83.3	22	80
2019	14	57.9	23	80
2020	5	56.2	24	80
		70-90		80

I had mentally written him off and very recently said something like, “Will never be on my team.”  Now I look at his numbers and am having to rethink. He is priced at 51. At Port, I can see him going back up to 84, or a bit higher. That is, in fact, enough to make $150k, which means he needs to be considered. Not traditionally durable, but  better than Daniher. Is only 25, so again has natural upside. Has only played 78 games, so still room to find out he’s better than he has shown. I can’t believe how many decent sheep options there are forward this year. No, I can it is a result of a shorter season and short quarters, lots more variation in results with smaller data samples….

 

Michael Walters

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2009	3	50	18
2010	3	65.3	19
2011	3	54	20
2012	8	75.6	21
2013	18	88.9	22
2014	6	79.2	23
2015	20	81.4	24
2016	22	78.6	25
2017	17	87	26	90
2018	18	87.8	27	93
2019	22	100.8	28	95
2020	14	98.9	29	95
		90-100		93

 

 

 

Thanks for reading!

 

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