2021 Midfield Projections Group 1

2021 Midfield Projections Group 1

 

Lachie Neale

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	11	47.4	18
2013	9	86.9	19
2014	21	87.2	20
2015	22	104.3	21
2016	22	112.6	22	113
2017	21	109	23	114
2018	22	111.9	24	115
2019	22	121.3	25	120
2020	17	134.4	26	120
		118-128		120

Pretty much ceiling priced. Hard to imagine he does much better and pretty likely not to do as well. Still, he is a captain option even if he has a year like 2019. He is only 27, which means there should be no age related decline. I really, really wish I knew what he would have average in a normal season, since I can’t really use the data from 2020 in my :who is likely to go Super-premium calculations. 

 

Jackson Macrae

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2013	13	61.4	18
2014	21	100.1	19
2015	20	99.9	20
2016	18	94.1	21
2017	22	106.9	22
2018	19	127.1	23	125
2019	22	123.2	24	125
2020	17	121	25	125
		118-128		125

I think he is actually floor priced, since he is just 26 and is priced at his lowest average in 3 years. Way more upside than downside. I mean anyone at 121 has a lot of possible downside, just not a lot of likely downside. I suspect the dogs will be good, and they will have enough points to spread around to not need to avoid their mids. At least their best ones; Bailey Smith could be in trouble. 

 

Clayton Oliver

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2016	13	70.3	18
2017	22	111.5	19	111
2018	22	114.7	20	112
2019	22	109.4	21	113
2020	17	122.2	22	118
		118-130+		120

Satan Oliver is 23. That’s the age it is most likely for a player to make the jump to super premium. As I said in the past, I can’t really use the data from last year for those calculations, but a 13 point increase is not likely all due to the short quarters. I actually think he is floor priced as well. At worst he is accurately priced. I feel like he has been good for so long it is hard to remember how young he is, and that he still hasn’t played 100 matches. Ok, 96, but still not even 100. If I didn’t own him and he did break out into a super premium this year, I would have an Embolism, so I own him.  He is also durable, having not missed a match in 4 years.   

Nathan Fyfe

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2010	16	72.6	18
2011	21	108	19
2012	9	93.2	20
2013	19	106.5	21
2014	18	122.3	22	122
2015	18	124.3	23	122
2016	5	105.4	24	121
2017	21	108.8	25	121
2018	15	113.9	26	119
2019	20	120	27	117
2020	14	113.2	28	115
		109-118		113

Fyfe is one of those players who somehow feels better than he is, at least in Supercoach. Last year he said he would be forward more and he was. This year, there is no reason I know of that he will go back into the guts and so I think he is accurately priced. He also misses a lot of matches. He missed games every year. The only place a 22 appears in those numbers is his 2014 age. Will he play his first full season at 29? Possible, but not probable. If you are a Dockers fan who can’t handle games without him in your side, I understand. Otherwise he should not be in your team.   

Joshua Kelly

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	18	68.1	18
2015	18	70.6	19
2016	22	87.1	20
2017	21	114.3	21	114
2018	15	113.8	22	114
2019	14	117.4	23	114
2020	14	114.6	24	114
		110-118		114

Jelly is sort of like a Fyfe who never actually averaged 120+, although he did once play 22 games in a season back in 2016. I can understand the Fyfe hope, after all Nat hit 120+ 3 times, and he is 29, so it is still possible if not probable.  At 25, there is still a possibility of a Jelly breakout, but he has had about the same average for 4 seasons in a row, and he has missed 29% of the games in the last 3 years. If you are thinking of picking him, find $5,300 and take Zac Merrett instead. If you have Zac, find $8,300 and take The Bont instead. If you have both of them, well, Macrae and Oliver are next. If you can’t go up, try Danger, who is at least durable. Better yet, try for someone floor priced who might go for about 114 but cost far less!  Again, GWS fans are forgiven for having him despite all the reasons not to. Everyone else, why? 

Patrick Cripps

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	3	39.3	18
2015	20	96.3	19
2016	21	107.6	20
2017	15	97.7	21
2018	22	119.4	22	118
2019	20	117.1	23	118
2020	17	97.5	24	118
		111-121		118

Well, I think he is pretty much floor priced. (Jelly owners take note)  I’d expect him to get back at least 10 points of the 20 he dropped last year. As many others have said, he won’t have to carry the team all by himself, and that should reduce wear and tear on his body. He’s an obvious fallen premium and seems like a bargain.

Marcus Bontempelli

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	16	78.6	18
2015	20	103.2	19	104
2016	22	107.7	20	106
2017	22	105.1	21	108
2018	19	104	22	110
2019	22	114.7	23	113
	17	116.1	24	115
		112-122		116

I think he is priced about accurately, although he is also just 25 and could break out. He shows signs of it often enough. He is durable and that’s always nice. If picking one of him or Macrae I would go with Jack. Last year he and the Dogs were terrible the first part of the year and darn good the second part, and if they can avoid that inexplicable run of suck he could easily break out. But that may be wishful thinking as the numbers do not clearly point to it. 

Thanks for Reading!

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