Cow Talk R12 –> R13

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

 

I will gladly pay you Tuesday, for a pumpkin seed today. 

What are you going to pay me with?

…An IOU!

Don’t you give him pumpkins seeds for free?

Well, yeah, although he does help with Cow Talk. 

Don’t forget I am The Cute!

True. 

But, that does, sort of lead into something that is both obvious but maybe not clear without numbers. 

By sort of, you mean, not really?

Hey if it comes before it leads into! I’m earning my pumpkin seeds here, don’t mess it up!

Well, Um, yes to all that. 

Anyways, I was thinking about bringing in Naicos, since I missed him before, but he has a bye still. Which, not so good. Aside from his rather low recent average, but that is not the point. How much do you lose by bringing in a player with a bye left vs one without. 

Very happily, this week there are 11 weeks left, making the math easy-ish. 

It turns out that if you get someone with a bye left, who you expect to score at 110, that is the same as getting someone who you expect to score 100. Also, that means one less player on their bye, which could cost points. 

	Has Bye	No Bye
13		100
14	110	100
15	110	100
16	110	100
17	110	100
18	110	100
19	110	100
20	110	100
21	110	100
22	110	100
23	110	100
	1100	1100

 

Same idea below, but with the bye-having player only averaging 100. Only takes a 91 average to equal that. 

	Has Bye	No Bye
13		91
14	100	91
15	100	91
16	100	91
17	100	91
18	100	91
19	100	91
20	100	91
21	100	91
22	100	91
23	100	91
	1000	1001

 

So, my idea of getting Naicos seems rather silly. I could either spend the same on a player who had the R12 bye and get more points, or buy someone cheaper who will score the same.

Which are you doing?

 Well, since those exact cases don;t exist, I’m learning towards getting a more expensive R12 player who should average more anyways, like Bont or Libba. The real world does not give you nice neatly wrapped options like out math examples. But let’s see…

Nick Daicos costs $535,100, if he averages 115 for the rest of the season, that’s 1150 points. 

Adam Cerra costs 513,100. If he averages 104.8 for the rest of the season, that’s 1153 points. 

So, it turns out there is a real world example. If you only have the money for Naicos, you can get Cerra for $22,000 less and get the same points. That assume Naicos goes at 115 from here on out, which is over his current 108.1 average. 

So, as we knew, don’t trade in players who have not had their byes. 

Unless they are cows and downgrade targets. 

Right, ok don’t trade in premium players who have not had their byes. 

 

At this point who stays and goes is mostly about how much cash is needed for trade ins and bye cover. But, gonna do normal-ish commentary anyways, just in case. But, really, short term cash movements are less important. Unless someone put up a single digit score or something…..

 

Defenders

 

Trainor: Two 28s in a row, where the heck did that come from. Prime sale candidate.  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		133,500
1	50	133,500
2	24	133,500
3	90	133,500
4	82	156,200
5	80	201,400
6	2	259,500
7	66	264,200
8	82	260,800
9	46	259,500
10	52	277,400
11	28	284,100
12	28	265,000
13	52.5	242,800
14
15	52.5	226,757	-16,043	-16,043
16	52.5	225,711	-1,045	-17,089
17	52.5	235,723	10,012	-7,077

 

Prior:   May be at his high point price wise

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		169,200
1	50	169,200
2	57	169,200
3	78	169,200
4		163,100
5	54	163,100
6	92	235,500
7	43	273,000
8	57	285,500
9	93	296,300
10	69	304,200
11	87	321,100
12	59	346,500
13	67.2	350,100
14	67.2	335,964	-14,136	-14,136
15	67.2	337,040	1,076	-13,060
16
17	67.2	337,185	146	-12,915

 

Bice:   What the Bleep!  So much for bye cover. Sell this week for sure it seems. Dang. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1	52	113,500
2	96	113,500
3		113,500
4	124	113,500
5	89	203,400
6	79	286,100
7	101	340,400
8	49	370,800
9	71	375,800
10	55	375,300
11	68	354,100
12	9	346,600
13	72.1	313,500
14
15	72.1	296,745	-16,755	-16,755
16	72.1	286,192	-10,552	-27,308
17	72.1	306,180	19,987	-7,320

 

Connor O’Sullivan:  Wow, nice score. Can be held to his bye, assuming you no need for the cash for upgrades, which is rather likely. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		148,700
1	48	148,700
2	88	148,700
3	77	148,700
4	103	203,900
5	42	268,200
6	54	295,400
7	95	306,400
8	48	310,500
9	49	317,300
10	26	319,300
11		289,800
12	95	289,800
13	65.9	288,500
14	65.9	288,056	-444	-444
15	65.9	304,890	16,834	16,390
16
17	65.9	311,803	6,912	23,303

 

Brock:  Well, he’s going far better than was expected. No rush to trade for sure. Not the end of the world if you need to hold him across his bye to cover for R16. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		99,100
1		99,100
2		99,100
3		99,100
4	80	99,100
5	39	99,100
6		99,100
7		99,100
8		99,100
9	60	99,100
10	57	152,300
11	79	181,200
12	51	220,000
13	61.0	244,600
14	61.0	248,751	4,151	4,151
15
16	61.0	265,493	16,743	20,893
17	61.0	265,513	20	20,913

 

Travaglia:  Has made so little seems a waste to trade him if he can keep his job. Which I have no idea about. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		172,000
1		172,000
2		172,000
3	83	172,000
4	52	172,000
5	21	172,000
6		195,400
7		195,400
8	0	195,400
9		195,400
10	22	195,400
11	56	186,100
12	49	180,800
13
14	40.4	189,200
15	40.4	203,493	14,293	14,293
16	40.4	207,177	3,684	17,977
17	40.4	188,327	-18,849	-873

 

Midfielders

 

M Reid:  Very hard to trade out with that 104 still in his system and money tight. Such an easy bye few will have to.  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		131,500
1	50	131,500
2	75	131,500
3	106	131,500
4	73	199,100
5	58	258,500
6	82	294,900
7	35	312,000
8	50	308,200
9	36	302,000
10	69	276,500
11	104	272,400
12	50	292,900
13
14	65.7	314,100
15	65.7	328,248	14,148	14,148
16	65.7	321,808	-6,440	7,708
17	65.7	295,055	-26,754	-19,045

 

Lindsay:  Looks safe to his bye. No Jinkx, no Bice. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,500
1	86	158,500
2	78	158,500
3	9	158,500
4		193,400
5	48	193,400
6	55	202,000
7	78	198,700
8	56	227,000
9	71	251,700
10	67	276,500
11	80	289,600
12	59	309,700
13	62.5	319,000
14	62.5	324,834	5,834	5,834
15
16	62.5	320,424	-4,409	1,424
17	62.5	318,694	-1,730	-306

 

Moraes:   Had his Bye

Long:  He has averaged 97 since he got a full time role. IF you can afford to trade him out at his bye, that will probably be his highest value. Feel like he’d make a fine M8..M7 maybe… 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	30	200,900
1	113	200,900
2	57	200,900
3		240,000
4	26	240,000
5	114	263,000
6	96	280,600
7	87	311,600
8	94	361,900
9	65	390,100
10	94	397,500
11	134	404,600
12	93	427,500
13	83.6	456,600
14
15	83.6	473,320	16,720	16,720
16	83.6	463,458	-9,862	6,858
17	83.6	452,043	-11,415	-4,557

 

Rucks

 

Flynn:   Well, he plays Xerri next, so maybe sell now? Seems likely to drop real soon now. You never know, but….

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		261,900
1	87	261,900
2		261,900
3		261,900
4		261,900
5		261,900
6	141	261,900
7	105	261,900
8	53	341,100
9	80	384,900
10	111	389,500
11	46	395,000
12	79	395,700
13	87.8	395,600
14	87.8	386,466	-9,134	-9,134
15
16	87.8	396,931	10,465	1,331
17	87.8	408,497	11,566	12,897

 

Forwards

Levi Ashcroft:  If he does well this week he might hold his price to the bye. I suspect few will own him after R14, but you never know. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		185,500
1	84	185,500
2	72	185,500
3	36	185,500
4	87	221,700
5	90	249,100
6	89	277,400
7	68	322,500
8	99	347,800
9	77	370,800
10	68	381,800
11	95	389,300
12	59	392,800
13	77.0	387,300
14	77.0	388,385	1,085	1,085
15	77.0	381,241	-7,144	-6,059
16
17	77.0	382,736	1,495	-4,564

 

Davidson:  Has his bye

 

Kako:  His 52 came in handy for a lot of people last round, and might well again. Lack of cash to get from him makes him more likely to stay around a few more weeks.  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		149,500
1	62	149,500
2	34	149,500
3	62	149,500
4		163,100
5	38	163,100
6	55	191,700
7	49	210,200
8	60	218,300
9	30	234,200
10	32	234,500
11	44	226,900
12	52	214,000
13	47.1	214,100
14	47.1	221,495	7,395	7,395
15	47.1	228,329	6,833	14,229
16
17	47.1	230,511	2,183	16,411

 

Sam PP:  Had his Bye

Curtain: Sure did well the last few weeks. Very likely to be a good hold one more week. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,600
1	26	158,600
2	82	158,600
3	90	158,600
4	65	204,500
5	42	254,900
6	48	274,600
7	41	271,400
8	73	258,700
9	22	263,200
10	65	254,600
11	83	258,400
12	72	265,400
13	59.1	292,500
14	59.1	310,812	18,312	18,312
15
16	59.1	312,841	2,029	20,341
17	59.1	308,652	-4,189	16,152

 

 

Dodgy Advice:  A bit long range this one, but if you are having trouble getting to 23, Sam facey is coming back soon, and then after two more weeks he may be cheap, and he can score. So, maybe plan way ahead?

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!