Pre article EDIT: Apologies for the lateness of the article but we are having issues with the website and I have not been able to access the posts. Hence some of the info is already redundant as last night’s game has been and gone, as well as the team selections. I have put edit notes where I think they are applicable, so hope it is not too inconvenient. Anyway, here is the article written over Wed/Thur for what it’s worth.
When you are into the bye rounds and there is only one player (Cooper Simpson) in the top ten most traded OUT, and that player is an extended out, there must be a few plans that have gone awry. And when we see seven of the top ten traded IN who are yet to have a bye, it tells me there’s a few coaches struggling for minimum 18 this round. Isn’t the theory to trade in players off their bye so they cover the next four weeks. True, that’s the theory but the lack of suitable options, especially in the cheap aisles, sees most of us running for cover in these early byes. Supposedly, the round 16 bye is pretty tricky for most people so if you are going down the route of bringing in round 16 bye players now (McCluggage, Caldwell and Martin, along with the rook in McCarthy), what’s the plan for when it bobs up in four weeks?
Anyway, to the OUT list. Pretty much all on the list make sense as they are mostly dead for whatever reason. Some, whilst still ostensibly playing this week, have reached their use by date with breakevens way higher than their averages. These dudes include the Sydney pair Cleary (91) (Edit: not named) and Bice (110) and they are obviously not worth keeping for that one week extra bye coverage as the amount they lose will stagnate the upgrading cash on hand if they stay. I think we all hoped we could get one more week out of them. I still have Cleary but traded Bice to Sinclair in R10, making the most of that extra $60k. I think Cleary goes, but am waiting on teams tonight.
Reid , El-Hawli and Simpson all make sense with the injury thing happening. Reid will be useful when he comes back, but with his history and 100 BE is better off cashed in now and brought back later if you want, and probably cheaper. Not sure El-Hawli gets a guernsey again any time soon with an undefined return from injury and Angus Clarke making a good fist of the wing in his absence. Sinpson probably doesn’t play again this year so it makes sense to turn him into a new cash cow (if there is still such a thing).
Luke Trainor’s 89 BE and his new forward role helps make the decision to turf him while he’s still somewhat relevant with a $130k profit (despite losing $22k last week), easier. He’s another one who would have been nice cover for just one more week if it was possible. Ryan Maric will lose shitloads of cash this week, if he plays. Lots of speculation out west that Tom McCarthy (Edit: Since not named) will step straight into his spot and put Maric to SUB status , or even omitted all together. Who would have thought that a few short weeks ago. I for one, was hoping he could stay while I upgraded around him, but alas, no. He becomes the second part of my get Bont and Rozee (NB they are both coming off a bye) for the round 13 fixture. (Edit: spent so much time trying to get my article on the website I forgot to trade Bont in before lockout)!! I have to hang onto the other Weagle, Matt Flynn, despite him fronting up to the X man and carrying a BE of 111. He is not likely to achieve that, but I figure he is going to earn more points in that Flex position than any rookie I bring in. I also figure, despite his tough match ups, he stays until his bye and I should still have a few hundred grand to use for R15 when I say bye to him.
The two most interesting trades on this list however, have to be Xavier Lindsay and Levi Ashcroft. I can only assume they are a ticket to Bont this week as no other rookie gives up enough cash. Could Bont possibly wait another week at his price and BE of 137 and either or both these guys become very valuable cover for the next two and three weeks respectively. Lindsay has a very achievable BE of just 51 and is averaging low 60s, and in fact has not scored lower than his BE since round 5, so he’s one that makes sense to hold if you are able to swing something else. Of course not knowing if he will be named until Sunday night is not ideal if you have not got the luxury of waiting that long. Levi, on the other hand, has a higher BE (77) which matches his average, but also has a higher ceiling and can be really useful bye cover right through till R16. He’s scored higher than his BE in half of his games this year, and has a high of 99 along with another 95 and a couple of high 80’s, meaning his score will be less likely to drop out of the total if you are fielding more than 18, but also should provide a nice score for the best 18 if he has to. I get that he might be due a spell, but if he’s picked, I hang on and find another option if you can.
As for the INs, Angus Clarke makes perfect sense and the only genuine option this week, although bunches grabbed him last week because of those lack of options. BE of -74 means he should make us at least $60k this week, all going well. Also comes in three weeks before his bye, giving us the option of using him to downgrade then, or, if he is still making money, hang onto him through his bye till he maxes out. Luke Pedlar is a bit of a red flag as he has never scored as high as the 79 points he got against West Coast against any of his rivals in the rest of the fixture this year. In fact, his highest ever score of 83 came against GWS in round 1 2023. He has only just come into the side and the side is starting to gel. They like him, but they also like Draper and Nankervis and Laird has to come back. Smithers is playing great in his short stint, so I’m not sure where the Crows hierarchy will land at selection in a team that is pretty hard to get into right now. But having said that, Pedlar provides an option that can score well if he has a good game as the impact player he is supposed to be and should make a nice $50k if he’s not the Sub. As an impact player, he makes a nice case for being sub, however.
I get that we are short of options in the cheap aisles, but grabbing Campbell Gray after his first price rise doesn’t seem a rock solid move. I know Yze has said he’d like to play him as much as possible, but how much is possible and are the Tiges that flexible that they can leave him there when Balta will be named tonight. (Edit: Balta named and Gray omitted).
Tom McCarthy, wow, will he even play, or is this a way to have a cheap DPP and hope he gets a gig in the immediate future. Not for me, I need to see him named and play even if he is a mature body. (Edit: Not named).
Completely understand the Bontempelli, Liberatore and Rozee picks. As stated earlier, coming off the bye means they are there to help throughout the duration of the byes. All are super picks and everyone is talking about getting the Bont. He probably would have been in over half the teams if he’d started the season . Libba is averaging a career high 119 and has a three round average of 134 so is obviously in hot form. Not likely to be tagged with more attention being paid to Richards and sometimes the Bont, and probably won’t be cheaper anytime soon. Connor Rozee becomes more valuable now that he has DPP and is averaging enough to be a top 9 defender, but with a capacity to jump up to a top 6-8 defender. I think this makes him a good pick. As well he has a ceiling of 154 and 140 against his next two opponents to support that thought. He will slot between defence and midfield during the next few weeks to help with bye cover.
As I said, don’t particularly like the picks of players who have yet to take a bye, but don’t know everyone’s circumstances so it’s hard to analyse effectively. Caldwell is understandable with his recent form and his juicy BE of 21 means he will be closer to $500k next week, and we gotta take the bargains when we can. At the risk of sounding hypocritical, he is on my horizon as part of a three way upgrade if it suits my other bye planning.
I guess the philosophy of choosing guys like Martin and McCluggage who are on the cusp of $600k is that are true performers with very achievable BE that could well send them hurtling into the realms of the mega rich and now is the best time to nab them regardless of their round 16 bye. At least it gives coaches three more weeks of premo points and time to sort out how to fill those spots in round 16 when it hits us.
Good luck with it all this round folks, and the best of coaching to you all.