Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
Hi Everybody!
This week I was facing an unusual problem, having no idea what I was going to talk about. My Imaginary Interlocutor had no idea, and the Hamster, as usual, wanted to talk about Pumpkin seeds. Not the worst idea, since we used Pumpkin seeds to discuss floating premiums, and that is probably worth revisiting. But, well, I was stuck, then real life prompted a thought.
Of pumpkin seeds?
No, but we will talk about floating premiums and such a little after the thought.
Yay!
So, real life event. My partner, may she ever remain tolerant of me, is on the board of our local Friends of the Library. They had a fundraiser this evening. She had to be there, so I had to be there. I was for sure going, and I did not complain or anything, because that’s not nice and it was not a big ask, and really, compared to my getting up at oh-dark-30 to watch footy, a small ask. So, I looked forward to all the excitement of a silent auction.
We get there and it turns out the event was at a newly opened brew-pub. We go in and get our programs and drink tickets. She gives me hers, and says she will drive home. I enjoy excellent beer in great weather and have a grand time.
So, how does that relate to Supercoach?
Supercoach makes you want to drink heavily!
Ok, sort of, sometimes.
You babbled like an idiot, like when you write Cow Talk?
I was more thinking that we are having a lot of stuff happen that we are not expecting. Rookies we all got in get hurt in the VFL. Libba in defense. We also are getting new players just showing up and surprise scores. The byes are sort of crazy at best and these have felt more so.
Your point?
No matter how things seem to be going, there are opportunities if we look for them. Creative options in, maybe creative options out. Like, Sheezle. I own him, but if I did not, I’d be tempted to bring him in right now. Libba will be cheap soon, as will Darcy.
We get do used to our teams, we stop thinking about them and just make assumptions about them that maybe are not still valid. Like Rankine is a keeper and Ned Long is not. Right now that might be the other way around. Or both might be trade outs.
Maybe this is a good week to go through and look at every player on your team, and see how they are really going. Who stays for sure, who is maybe not as firm a keep as they used to be, who is maybe not as firm a trade out as they used to be. For example, are any of them not likely to score better than Mills, and cost lots more? How much cash do you need to have in order to upgrade someone who is marginal to someone who is not, or at least a better chance not to be?
Are you just telling people to plan again?
Um…no…I mean, yes, but not just to plan, to go back and re plan and look ahead and look at all the players doing well and poorly who maybe have prices that can be taken advantage of.
Don’t we do that every week…?
In theory or in practice?
Um…
Yeah. In theory we do. In practice, we usually carry over our thinking from last week, and add in all the surprises from the weekend and fiddle a bit. Well, I do at least. I try to be open and sometimes it works and others I just don;t have the time/brain to catch things. Like, got Ned Long, and did not get Sheldrick. Why one and not the other? Put the time into researching Long and didn’t put the time into Sheldrick. I already had plans and was not up for trying to change them too much.
But, but plans?
Plans do not survive contact with the weekend. We need a new plan every week.
Oh my!
Yeah, something nice shows up and we pass it by because we were not open to it. Thai site and the community helps, more people thinking and sharing, but still, in the end we have to make the decisions for ourselves.
How’s about the floating premiums? Running out of time….
Oh! Yes, well, short answer, it appears that there are far fewer now, and they are floating by less. Gawn and Xerri, well, they really could keep it up, and even if they end up averaging less then now, will still probably do well the run home. But the guys who had crazy high averages at the start of the season? Not so much now. Even Bont and Butters have fallen to sane, if high, averages. Only Prestia, who has only played two games, is in crazy territory now.
So, don’t bring him in expecting him to keep averaging 126.5?
Right. Now we want to find who is going to have a strong second half of the season, not bring in the ones who had a strong first half but are not showing sign of keeping that up?
Like who?
No idea! I’m targeting Bont and Butters, which is about as obvious as it gets. Lots of re-thinking next week though….
At this point who stays and goes is mostly about how much cash is needed for trade ins and bye cover. Guys are either walking cash, dead, or too low priced to care about. Sticking to the numbers this week, mostly I think.
Defenders
Trainor:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 133,500 | |||
| 1 | 50 | 133,500 | ||
| 2 | 24 | 133,500 | ||
| 3 | 90 | 133,500 | ||
| 4 | 82 | 156,200 | ||
| 5 | 80 | 201,400 | ||
| 6 | 2 | 259,500 | ||
| 7 | 66 | 264,200 | ||
| 8 | 82 | 260,800 | ||
| 9 | 46 | 259,500 | ||
| 10 | 52 | 277,400 | ||
| 11 | 28 | 284,100 | ||
| 12 | 28 | 265,000 | ||
| 13 | 61 | 242,800 | ||
| 14 | ||||
| 15 | 53.2 | 231,100 | ||
| 16 | 53.2 | 232,942 | 1,842 | 1,842 |
| 17 | 53.2 | 245,371 | 12,429 | 14,271 |
| 18 | 53.2 | 227,687 | -17,684 | -3,413 |
Prior:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 169,200 | |||
| 1 | 50 | 169,200 | ||
| 2 | 57 | 169,200 | ||
| 3 | 78 | 169,200 | ||
| 4 | 163,100 | |||
| 5 | 54 | 163,100 | ||
| 6 | 92 | 235,500 | ||
| 7 | 43 | 273,000 | ||
| 8 | 57 | 285,500 | ||
| 9 | 93 | 296,300 | ||
| 10 | 69 | 304,200 | ||
| 11 | 87 | 321,100 | ||
| 12 | 59 | 346,500 | ||
| 13 | 61 | 350,100 | ||
| 14 | 66.7 | 350,200 | ||
| 15 | 66.7 | 344,411 | -5,789 | -5,789 |
| 16 | ||||
| 17 | 66.7 | 339,446 | -4,965 | -10,754 |
| 18 | 66.7 | 338,279 | -1,167 | -11,921 |
Bice: I have no idea what is going on with the Swans. Maybe we will in a few weeks when they have everyone in their defense healthy. Huh, maybe even they will! Maybe.
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 113,500 | |||
| 1 | 52 | 113,500 | ||
| 2 | 96 | 113,500 | ||
| 3 | 113,500 | |||
| 4 | 124 | 113,500 | ||
| 5 | 89 | 203,400 | ||
| 6 | 79 | 286,100 | ||
| 7 | 101 | 340,400 | ||
| 8 | 49 | 370,800 | ||
| 9 | 71 | 375,800 | ||
| 10 | 55 | 375,300 | ||
| 11 | 68 | 354,100 | ||
| 12 | 9 | 346,600 | ||
| 13 | 98 | 313,500 | ||
| 14 | ||||
| 15 | 74.3 | 309,000 | ||
| 16 | 74.3 | 307,581 | -1,419 | -1,419 |
| 17 | 74.3 | 335,252 | 27,671 | 26,252 |
| 18 | 74.3 | 312,521 | -22,731 | 3,521 |
Connor O’Sullivan:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 148,700 | |||
| 1 | 48 | 148,700 | ||
| 2 | 88 | 148,700 | ||
| 3 | 77 | 148,700 | ||
| 4 | 103 | 203,900 | ||
| 5 | 42 | 268,200 | ||
| 6 | 54 | 295,400 | ||
| 7 | 95 | 306,400 | ||
| 8 | 48 | 310,500 | ||
| 9 | 49 | 317,300 | ||
| 10 | 26 | 319,300 | ||
| 11 | 289,800 | |||
| 12 | 95 | 289,800 | ||
| 13 | 50 | 288,500 | ||
| 14 | 64.6 | 288,800 | ||
| 15 | 64.6 | 298,018 | 9,218 | 9,218 |
| 16 | ||||
| 17 | 64.6 | 298,567 | 549 | 9,767 |
| 18 | 64.6 | 305,391 | 6,823 | 16,591 |
Brock:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 99,100 | |||
| 1 | 99,100 | |||
| 2 | 99,100 | |||
| 3 | 99,100 | |||
| 4 | 80 | 99,100 | ||
| 5 | 39 | 99,100 | ||
| 6 | 99,100 | |||
| 7 | 99,100 | |||
| 8 | 99,100 | |||
| 9 | 60 | 99,100 | ||
| 10 | 57 | 152,300 | ||
| 11 | 79 | 181,200 | ||
| 12 | 51 | 220,000 | ||
| 13 | 70 | 244,600 | ||
| 14 | 62.3 | 269,200 | ||
| 15 | ||||
| 16 | 62.3 | 284,638 | 15,438 | 15,438 |
| 17 | 62.3 | 280,402 | -4,235 | 11,202 |
| 18 | 62.3 | 285,520 | 5,117 | 16,320 |
Travaglia: Did not play
Midfielders
M Reid: Did not play
Lindsay: Well, did not see that coming! This is why we get cows off the field. They are never truly safe to hold and play.
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 158,500 | |||
| 1 | 86 | 158,500 | ||
| 2 | 78 | 158,500 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 158,500 | ||
| 4 | 193,400 | |||
| 5 | 48 | 193,400 | ||
| 6 | 55 | 202,000 | ||
| 7 | 78 | 198,700 | ||
| 8 | 56 | 227,000 | ||
| 9 | 71 | 251,700 | ||
| 10 | 67 | 276,500 | ||
| 11 | 80 | 289,600 | ||
| 12 | 59 | 309,700 | ||
| 13 | 19 | 319,000 | ||
| 14 | 58.8 | 305,600 | ||
| 15 | ||||
| 16 | 58.8 | 285,526 | -20,074 | -20,074 |
| 17 | 58.8 | 270,653 | -14,873 | -34,947 |
| 18 | 58.8 | 277,219 | 6,566 | -28,381 |
Moraes:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 113,500 | |||
| 1 | 113,500 | |||
| 2 | 52 | 113,500 | ||
| 3 | 94 | 113,500 | ||
| 4 | 43 | 113,500 | ||
| 5 | 42 | 166,800 | ||
| 6 | 30 | 201,800 | ||
| 7 | 55 | 199,900 | ||
| 8 | 204,100 | |||
| 9 | 24 | 204,100 | ||
| 10 | 68 | 198,900 | ||
| 11 | 55 | 211,600 | ||
| 12 | ||||
| 13 | 19 | 220,800 | ||
| 14 | 48.2 | 226,000 | ||
| 15 | 48.2 | 220,400 | -5,600 | -5,600 |
| 16 | 48.2 | 204,917 | -15,483 | -21,083 |
| 17 | 48.2 | 201,864 | -3,053 | -24,136 |
| 18 | 48.2 | 212,465 | 10,601 | -13,535 |
Long: Last week here. May be at his season high price.
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 30 | 200,900 | ||
| 1 | 113 | 200,900 | ||
| 2 | 57 | 200,900 | ||
| 3 | 240,000 | |||
| 4 | 26 | 240,000 | ||
| 5 | 114 | 263,000 | ||
| 6 | 96 | 280,600 | ||
| 7 | 87 | 311,600 | ||
| 8 | 94 | 361,900 | ||
| 9 | 65 | 390,100 | ||
| 10 | 94 | 397,500 | ||
| 11 | 134 | 404,600 | ||
| 12 | 93 | 427,500 | ||
| 13 | 84 | 456,600 | ||
| 14 | ||||
| 15 | 83.6 | 474,900 | ||
| 16 | 83.6 | 464,820 | -10,080 | -10,080 |
| 17 | 83.6 | 453,259 | -11,562 | -21,641 |
| 18 | 83.6 | 407,765 | -45,493 | -67,135 |
Rucks
Flynn:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 261,900 | |||
| 1 | 87 | 261,900 | ||
| 2 | 261,900 | |||
| 3 | 261,900 | |||
| 4 | 261,900 | |||
| 5 | 261,900 | |||
| 6 | 141 | 261,900 | ||
| 7 | 105 | 261,900 | ||
| 8 | 53 | 341,100 | ||
| 9 | 80 | 384,900 | ||
| 10 | 111 | 389,500 | ||
| 11 | 46 | 395,000 | ||
| 12 | 79 | 395,700 | ||
| 13 | 79 | 395,600 | ||
| 14 | 86.8 | 382,900 | ||
| 15 | ||||
| 16 | 86.8 | 390,023 | 7,123 | 7,123 |
| 17 | 86.8 | 398,697 | 8,674 | 15,797 |
| 18 | 86.8 | 408,516 | 9,818 | 25,616 |
Forwards
Levi Ashcroft:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 185,500 | |||
| 1 | 84 | 185,500 | ||
| 2 | 72 | 185,500 | ||
| 3 | 36 | 185,500 | ||
| 4 | 87 | 221,700 | ||
| 5 | 90 | 249,100 | ||
| 6 | 89 | 277,400 | ||
| 7 | 68 | 322,500 | ||
| 8 | 99 | 347,800 | ||
| 9 | 77 | 370,800 | ||
| 10 | 68 | 381,800 | ||
| 11 | 95 | 389,300 | ||
| 12 | 59 | 392,800 | ||
| 13 | 66 | 387,300 | ||
| 14 | 76.2 | 383,500 | ||
| 15 | 76.2 | 372,399 | -11,101 | -11,101 |
| 16 | ||||
| 17 | 76.2 | 370,631 | -1,768 | -12,869 |
| 18 | 76.2 | 373,797 | 3,166 | -9,703 |
Davidson: Rapidly sliding into irrelevance. Does anyone even own him now?
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 113,500 | |||
| 1 | 39 | 113,500 | ||
| 2 | 72 | 113,500 | ||
| 3 | 129 | 113,500 | ||
| 4 | 54 | 189,800 | ||
| 5 | 61 | 252,100 | ||
| 6 | 82 | 293,200 | ||
| 7 | 51 | 303,700 | ||
| 8 | 46 | 310,400 | ||
| 9 | 55 | 309,000 | ||
| 10 | 58 | 295,400 | ||
| 11 | 77 | 288,000 | ||
| 12 | ||||
| 13 | 29 | 296,100 | ||
| 14 | 62.8 | 291,300 | ||
| 15 | 62.8 | 289,030 | -2,270 | -2,270 |
| 16 | 62.8 | 268,322 | -20,708 | -22,978 |
| 17 | 62.8 | 265,817 | -2,504 | -25,483 |
| 18 | 62.8 | 278,825 | 13,008 | -12,475 |
Kako:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 149,500 | |||
| 1 | 62 | 149,500 | ||
| 2 | 34 | 149,500 | ||
| 3 | 62 | 149,500 | ||
| 4 | 163,100 | |||
| 5 | 38 | 163,100 | ||
| 6 | 55 | 191,700 | ||
| 7 | 49 | 210,200 | ||
| 8 | 60 | 218,300 | ||
| 9 | 30 | 234,200 | ||
| 10 | 32 | 234,500 | ||
| 11 | 44 | 226,900 | ||
| 12 | 52 | 214,000 | ||
| 13 | 39 | 214,100 | ||
| 14 | 39.0 | 217,900 | ||
| 15 | 39.0 | 218,526 | 626 | 626 |
| 16 | ||||
| 17 | 39.0 | 212,602 | -5,925 | -5,298 |
| 18 | 39.0 | 208,234 | -4,368 | -9,666 |
Curtain:
| Week | Score | Price | Proj. Change | Total Proj |
| 0 | 158,600 | |||
| 1 | 26 | 158,600 | ||
| 2 | 82 | 158,600 | ||
| 3 | 90 | 158,600 | ||
| 4 | 65 | 204,500 | ||
| 5 | 42 | 254,900 | ||
| 6 | 48 | 274,600 | ||
| 7 | 41 | 271,400 | ||
| 8 | 73 | 258,700 | ||
| 9 | 22 | 263,200 | ||
| 10 | 65 | 254,600 | ||
| 11 | 83 | 258,400 | ||
| 12 | 72 | 265,400 | ||
| 13 | 76 | 292,500 | ||
| 14 | 60.4 | 318,300 | ||
| 15 | ||||
| 16 | 60.4 | 326,379 | 8,079 | 8,079 |
| 17 | 60.4 | 327,224 | 844 | 8,924 |
| 18 | 60.4 | 320,974 | -6,250 | 2,674 |
Dodgy Advice: Um, all of the above?
So, I started with Bergman, and held him when he got hurt because I had more important trades and suddenly he is scoring well. And he is cheap. But, Port have injuries and I am not at all sure where he’ll be playing in a month. But, odds are he will be worth what he costs at a minimum, and has upside. Mills is probably better and cheaper but both might be affordable together for people who really need cheap premo-like objects .
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.
Thanks for reading!