Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

I have run out of time and brain to expand this and make it fun, so I’m just gonna explain boring style. In case anyone find it interesting, this is the sort of thought that usually leads to something bigger after I think about it and talk with the hamster.

I was thinking about Josh Dunkley. I have been following him for his whole career and a while back, 2019-2020 I think, I did a likely to braek out to the 130 plus season in which he looked good – then got hurt. So, I am in the habit of checking on him and seeing if he is a good trade in. I know what I am getting. But, well, I don’t think I do anymore. I started out the season thinking he was gonna be a fallen premium. But, now, I think he just fallen and can’t get up. Maybe playing hurt, maybe sharing a midfield with a lot of other good players, maybe feeling age and old injuries and got hit by a beer truck. (For those who remember.)  Whatever the reason, I have a suspicion that the reason his price is a lot lower is that his value is a lot lower. If we pay for an 88 average and get an 88 average, that’s bad. A 95 average is bad for that price. I’m avoiding for sure, unless he scores better, often. We tend to get an idea of who someone is in our heads and then miss when that idea is no longer true. Guys get better, guys get worse. Unless their Pendelbury,

 

 

A thing when looking at the projections. I use averages. One good or bad score will affect the price a lot. Real playes rarely score about the same each week.

 

Defenders

 

Serong:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	77	119,900
1	54	119,900
2	48	119,900
3		168,900
4	126	168,900
5	75	225,100
6	48	276,100
7	92	313,300
8	74.3	325,600
9	74.3	333,460	7,860	7,860
10	74.3	350,826	17,366	25,226
11	74.3	355,752	4,926	30,152
12	74.3	359,367	3,614	33,767
13	74.3	362,019	2,652	36,419
14	74.3	363,965	1,946	38,365

 

Jaques:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	84	119,900
1	80	119,900
2	70	119,900
3		193,500
4	67	193,500
5		238,300
6	34	238,300
7	69	250,900
8	67.3	259,800
9	67.3	265,786	5,986	5,986
10	67.3	284,887	19,100	25,087
11	67.3	298,166	13,280	38,366
12	67.3	307,910	9,744	48,110
13	67.3	315,059	7,149	55,259
14	67.3	320,305	5,246	60,505

 

Selwood:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	70	119,900
1	38	119,900
2	61	119,900
3		164,500
4	28	164,500
5	74	177,100
6	69	202,600
7	72	224,700
8	58.9	260,400
9	58.9	279,254	18,854	18,854
10	58.9	288,612	9,358	28,212
11	58.9	289,679	1,067	29,279
12	58.9	290,463	783	30,063
13	58.9	291,037	575	30,637
14	58.9	291,459	422	31,059

 

 

Lindsey:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		122,500
1	61	122,500
2		122,500
3	70	122,500
4	46	122,500
5	80	168,400
6	75	210,900
7	132	244,000
8	77.3	306,500
9	77.3	350,354	43,854	43,854
10	77.3	383,561	33,207	77,061
11	77.3	383,806	244	77,306
12	77.3	383,985	179	77,485
13	77.3	384,117	132	77,617
14	77.3	384,213	97	77,713

 

 

Grlj:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		172,000
1	73	172,000
2	43	172,000
3	68	172,000
4	90	208,600
5	59	242,300
6	66	274,600
7	74	297,100
8	67.6	306,700
9	67.6	316,630	9,930	9,930
10	67.6	324,609	7,979	17,909
11	67.6	327,628	3,018	20,928
12	67.6	329,843	2,215	23,143
13	67.6	331,468	1,625	24,768
14	67.6	332,660	1,192	25,960

 

Blamirez:   Did not play. 

Marshal:   Did not play. 

Carrol:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	54	119,900
1	59	119,900
2	44	119,900
3	40	159,100
4		180,900
5	76	180,900
6	32	204,100
7	106	215600
8	58.7	253,300
9	58.7	272,657	19,357	19,357
10	58.7	298,648	25,991	45,348
11	58.7	296,854	-1,794	43,554
12	58.7	295,538	-1,316	42,238
13	58.7	294,572	-966	41,272
14	58.7	293,864	-709	40,564

 

Allan:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		152,600
1	71	152,600
2	58	152,600
3	69	152,600
4	55	200,400
5	35	227,900
6	50	238300
7	29	237200
8	52.4	234,900
9	52.4	230,349	-4,551	-4,551
10	52.4	228,082	-2,267	-6,818
11	52.4	236,756	8,674	1,856
12	52.4	243,120	6,365	8,220
13	52.4	247,790	4,670	12,890
14	52.4	251,217	3,427	16,317

 

Watkins:   Did not play. 

 

Farrow:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		163,000
1		163,000
2		163,000
3	49	163,000
4	90	163,000
5	102	163,000
6	61	226,800
7	68	278,700
8	74.0	307,200
9	74.0	314,980	7,780	7,780
10	74.0	326,424	11,445	19,224
11	74.0	337,469	11,045	30,269
12	74.0	345,573	8,104	38,373
13	74.0	351,520	5,946	44,320
14	74.0	355,883	4,363	48,683

 

Bond:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,800
1	50	167,800
2		167,800
3	84	167,800
4	34	167,800
5		197,700
6	57	197,700
7	88	222,800
8	62.6	243,100
9	62.6	269,976	26,876	26,876
10	62.6	292,168	22,191	49,068
11	62.6	297,243	5,075	54,143
12	62.6	300,967	3,724	57,867
13	62.6	303,699	2,732	60,599
14	62.6	305,704	2,005	62,604

 

 

 

 

Midfielders

 

Jagga:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	65	119,900
1	113	119,900
2		119,900
3	88	119,900
4	70	206,600
5	53	271,800
6	64	293,700
7	69	298,700
8	74.6	302,000
9	74.6	313,181	11,181	11,181
10	74.6	326,050	12,869	24,050
11	74.6	337,951	11,901	35,951
12	74.6	346,683	8,732	44,683
13	74.6	353,091	6,407	51,091
14	74.6	357,792	4,701	55,792

 

Rucks

MacAndrew:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119900
1	88	119900
2	81	119900
3	68	119900
4	123	192800
5	83	261200
6	79	313800
7	65	356,900
8	83.9	363,000
9	83.9	366,891	3,891	3,891
10	83.9	371,889	4,998	8,889
11	83.9	383,877	11,988	20,877
12	83.9	392,673	8,796	29,673
13	83.9	399,127	6,454	36,127
14	83.9	403,863	4,736	40,863

 

 

Steen:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119900
1		119900
2		119900
3	83	119900
4	41	119900
5	28	119900
6	72	155,700
7	52	176,900
8	55.2	197,400
9	55.2	223,913	26,513	26,513
10	55.2	235,953	12,041	38,553
11	55.2	246,200	10,247	48,800
12	55.2	253,719	7,519	56,319
13	55.2	259,236	5,517	61,836
14	55.2	263,283	4,048	65,883

 

 

Forwards

 

Phillipou:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	66	168,400
1	27	168,400
2	42	168,400
3	69	185,400
4		198,100
5	69	198,100
6	40	225,600
7	98	244,700
8	58.7	271,600
9	58.7	286,085	14,485	14,485
10	58.7	304,971	18,886	33,371
11	58.7	301,493	-3,477	29,893
12	58.7	298,942	-2,551	27,342
13	58.7	297,070	-1,872	25,470
14	58.7	295,696	-1,374	24,096

 

Lombard:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	69	119900
1	55	119900
2	20	119900
3		153,400
4	56	153,400
5	49	170,700
6	45	181,100
7	49	199,600
8	49.0	210,100
9	49.0	217,258	7,158	7,158
10	49.0	224,276	7,017	14,176
11	49.0	229,424	5,149	19,324
12	49.0	233,203	3,778	23,103
13	49.0	235,975	2,772	25,875
14	49.0	238,009	2,034	27,909

 

 

Sharp:  

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		156,300
1	76	156,300
2	44	156,300
3	71	156,300
4	75	200,200
5	83	231,200
6	65	271,800
7	84	298,500
8	71.1	322,200
9	71.1	333,550	11,350	11,350
10	71.1	344,589	11,039	22,389
11	71.1	347,015	2,426	24,815
12	71.1	348,796	1,780	26,596
13	71.1	350,102	1,306	27,902
14	71.1	351,061	959	28,861

 

 

Cook:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,700
1	92	158,700
2	62	158,700
3	80	158,700
4	60	220,900
5	63	251,800
6	98	275,400
7	72	300,800
8	75.3	324,800
9	75.3	346,552	21,752	21,752
10	75.3	352,490	5,938	27,690
11	75.3	358,297	5,807	33,497
12	75.3	362,557	4,261	37,757
13	75.3	365,684	3,126	40,884
14	75.3	367,978	2,294	43,178

 

Lefau:   

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		146,900
1		146,900
2	72	146,900
3	44	146,900
4	33	146,900
5	85	174,000
6	35	200,000
7	74	214,800
8	57.2	243,900
9	57.2	252,281	8,381	8,381
10	57.2	268,212	15,930	24,312
11	57.2	272,473	4,261	28,573
12	57.2	275,600	3,127	31,700
13	57.2	277,894	2,294	33,994
14	57.2	279,577	1,683	35,677

 

Dodgy Advice:  

Maybe not so dodgy again – There are lots of good safe options this week. Don’t dance with Mr Clever. 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!