Fallen Premiums – Round 8

Upgrade season is in full swing and there’s some good value popping up at the perfect time.

Now that we’re a decent way into the season and some patterns are starting to form, this segment can really start to ramp up as we all start looking for upgrades, and the fallen premos present themselves. There’ll be a lot less speculative picks discussed from here on out, so let’s get into it.

 

Defenders

Jack Sinclair – 554.5k, (-52.1k), 113 AVG, 117 BE

Sinclair started the year like a house on fire with the lions share of ball in the Saints backline, after Nas moved to the midfield. He was the standout defender through the first few weeks, but has now come back to earth slightly after some uncharacteristically poor disposal in 2 of the last 3 games. This was just enough to drop his price over 50k, without giving us too much concern for his future output. He plays 11 of his last 16 at Marvel and has some soft matchups coming in Carlton and Richmond, he will be a top 6 defender and is a must have this year. Can’t go wrong with him this week.

Nas and Whitfield are also great options this week that I’ve talked about a lot this year. Looks like any tags are going to Ash rather than Whitfield and Nas also has a much softer fixture coming up (although he may cop attention from Lord this week). Just like we all thought at the beginning of the year, these GWS and St Kilda 4 still stand out in the defender category as must-haves if you can get them. If you’ve gotta choose between the ones you don’t have, I’d rank them;

1. Sinclair
2. Whitfield
3. Nas
4. Ash

 

Tom Stewart – 456.3k, (-44.6k), 99 AVG, 96 BE

Bounce back game for Stewart after a couple of super quiet weeks. Didn’t get a chance to watch either of those games, but I’m assuming this was due to the cats dominating in both games and not giving Stewart as many chances to intercept, which is a big part of his scoring. They copped an upset loss from the Power this week though, resulting in regularly scheduled programming for Stewart with 115. If a budget option suits you better this week, Stewart is probably your best option as scores that low should be an anomaly for him.

 

Bailey Dale – 461.3k, (-93.5k), 84 AVG, 62 BE

Dale had a rough start to the year with a lingering injury and lost a good chunk of his starting price. He also spent more time in different roles, spending a fair bit of time on the wing in one game. Since the bye he has gone 3 of 4 over 100 and looked more like his old self in the backline. The Dogs have been absolutely savaged by injuries in the past couple of weeks, but it should mean a lot of opportunity for Dale to rack up possessions without their typical midfield dominance. He doesn’t quite have the scoring history of some others, but at 1% ownership he could still be a great pickup at this price.

 

Incoming Price Drops

Lachie Ash – 541.1k, 146 BE

Midfielders

We’ve got a couple of options this week, and some even better ones coming over the next couple if you can wait for them. Midfield upgrades are looking nice at just the right time.

Jordan Dawson – 548.1k, (-63.2k), 103 AVG, 109 BE

Dawson was absolutely incredible in his return on the weekend. One of the league’s great leaders. SuperCoach wise, 138 points was his highest for the year and he has the Showdown coming up, which always brings the best out of both teams. An underpriced option to consider this week, he should average near 110.

Sam Walsh – 535k, (-8.9k), 106 AVG, 98 BE

We now have a couple more weeks of data to look at Walsh and Carlton’s midfield shake up. It seems they’re committed to keeping George Hewett out and opting for more speed around the ball, with honestly mixed results so far. In terms of SuperCoach though, it’s clearly been a positive move for Walsh as he has been the standout in there. He’s gone for 3 straight tons since (2 over 118) and it seems to be helping him get out of those awkward scores in the 90s we’ve seen from him. Can still handball or turn the ball over too much, but he’s probably going to get enough of it each week now to offset that and outperform his current price. Good value if you believe the change is permanent, which is looking to be the case.

Incoming Price Drops

Marcus Bontempelli – 603.5k, 160 BE

Finn Callaghan – 535.3k, 189 BE

Hugh McCluggage – 498.3k, 163 BE

Matt Rowell – 564.1k, 163 BE

 

Rucks 

Rowan Marshall – 412.3k, (-160.1k), 69 AVG, 22 BE

Marshall was a super interesting watch this week. TDK ended up getting up to play, which of course resulted in a ton from Marshall anyway? Their ruck centre-bounce split was exactly 50/50 and RoMo seems more comfortable in those non ruck minutes, still being able to find the footy. Whether that flash is enough to warrant selecting him is still a question mark for mine, but unfortunately if you’re targeting him, that decision probably needs to be made this week considering his low BE. My advice would remain the same as last week, avoid unless like Carlton a few weeks ago, you’re struggling and feel the need to go for a high risk shake-up. Should make a decent bit of cash though

 

Incoming Price Drops

Tristan Xerri – 686.6k, 192 BE

Max Gawn – 668.6k, 189 BE

 

Forwards 

Christian Petracca – 553.8k, (-17.3k), 124 AVG, 115 BE

For those who waited for a small discount on Petracca, the time to bring him in is now. A couple of weeks removed from his hamstring injury, this may well be the cheapest we see him for the rest of the season. More importantly than his price however, is his clear status as a top 2 forward with Sheezel. There is more than 16 average points between them and the 3rd ranked Kozzie Pickett. Definition of a must-have.

 

Jason Horne-Francis – 495.5k, (-15.7k), 96 AVG, 65 BE

Mentioned JHF last week so I’ll keep this one brief, he backed it up with another great game in an upset win. He seems to be hitting his straps with Butters in that midfield and could be eyeing off an even bigger score under the bright lights of the Showdown this week. Just keep in mind he has a bye in a few weeks and there should be other cheap options soon, if getting him in complicates your other plans. Should be a top 6 forward from here on out.

 

Incoming Price Drops

Josh Rachele – 450.3k, 146 BE

 

That’s all for the start of upgrade season, if there’s anyone you’re tossing up bringing in that I didn’t list, comment them down below and get some hopefully helpful advice from me and the community. Thanks for reading.