A thought dump of the new ruck rules that potentially impact stoppage and transitional scoring…

Hey guys!

Scobes here, just thought I’d upload my thought dump regarding the new rule changes, you may have seen something similar to this on X (Twitter) under my handle: @Scobey__
Let me know your thoughts and opinions in the comments below!

Context:

In 2015, the AFL identified a desire for a more free-flowing style of football. To achieve this, a series of rule changes were introduced for the 2016 season. These adjustments had an immediate and measurable impact, with the average number of stoppages per game dropping from almost 100 to approximately 90 — representing a reduction of around 10%.

Referring to the newly introduced deliberate out-of-bounds rule, then AFL Umpires’ Boss Hayden Kennedy explained the rationale behind the change, stating:

“Paying one extra deliberate out-of-bounds free kick per game has resulted in around about eight fewer boundary throw-ins, and that can only be good for the game, we think.”

Put simply, the 2016 rule changes mirror the intent behind the proposed 2026 adjustments. The deliberate out-of-bounds interpretation then is comparable to the last-touch out-of-bounds rule now. In even simpler terms, fewer stoppages will lead to a faster, more continuous, and free-flowing style of football.

 

#SuperCoach + #AFLFantasy ramifications:

This naturally raises the question: should players in #SuperCoach and #AFLFantasy who generate the majority of their points from transition play maintain — or even improve — their scoring output? Conversely, will players who rely heavily on stoppage-based scoring experience stagnation or a potential decline?

Using publicly available data from Jaiden Popowski’s website, Stats by Jaiden, we can begin to explore this trend. Specifically, when examining the top 15 midfielders who accumulated the greatest proportion of their #AFLFantasy points from stoppages, the following players emerge:

Points from stoppages and % of points from stoppages out of total points.

It is reasonable to assume that a player such as Matt Rowell, who derived 61.7% of his total points from stoppages, is unlikely to see an increase in that output given the AFL’s clear objective this season to reduce stoppages. In contrast, a midfielder like Josh Dunkley, whose scoring is more evenly split between stoppage and transitional play, may be less adversely affected by this shift.

Caleb Serong and Patrick Cripps also fall into a similar category, where a heavy reliance on stoppage-based scoring could result in their overall fantasy output plateauing as the game continues to evolve. Conversely, players such as Andrew Brayshaw and Marcus Bontempelli may experience minimal change, as their scoring profiles show a lower statistical dependence on stoppage situations compared to others.

To again reference data analyst Jaiden Popowski:

“The change to last disposal would’ve cut three throw-ins per game last year… this would’ve reduced ball-ups by approximately 0.7 per game.”

With fewer stoppages and a greater emphasis on transitional play now clearly established, the key question becomes: which midfielders generate the most #AFLFantasy points in transition?

Points from transition and % of total points from transition.

A player such as Errol Gulden, who derives a significant proportion of his scoring from transitional play, could be well positioned for an increase in output given the AFL’s continued shift towards a faster, more free-flowing game. A long-standing principle of #AFLFantasy and #SuperCoach is simple: players who consistently accumulate the ball — and use it efficiently (particularly in SuperCoach scoring) — tend to score well. If the game becomes increasingly transition-focused, Gulden shapes as a strong consideration across both formats.

Similarly, players such as Nick Daicos, Jordan Dawson, Zach Merrett, and Finn Callaghan, who rely slightly more on transition than stoppage-based scoring, may also benefit from this evolution. As the game continues to move in this direction due to rule changes, these players could see an uplift in scoring potential and may even prove to be undervalued if the market has not fully accounted for this shift.

This theory also introduces an intriguing discussion around ruck scoring. If stoppages continue to decline heading into the 2026 season, does that place players like Tristan Xerri, who derived 81.6% of his #AFLFantasy points from stoppages, at risk of a reduction in output? Conversely, could rucks such as Max Gawn, who generated 41.2% of his average points from transition, experience an increase? The same question applies to Luke Jackson, Darcy Cameron, and Tim English, all of whom recorded between 39% and 44% of their scoring from transitional play. It adds yet another layer of complexity to an already challenging ruck landscape.

Finally, a player like Colby McKercher may be primed for a significant scoring upswing if this theory holds true. Transition play was his primary source of fantasy scoring, accounting for an average of 69.8% of his total points — a profile that aligns perfectly with the direction the game appears to be heading.

McKercher averaged 69.8% of his scoring from transition points!

It is well established how heavily Colby McKercher relies on transitional play, and the data strongly supports this. The primary area of caution remains his disposal efficiency. However, according to @kangamerchant, McKercher appears locked into a rebounding defensive role that maximises his run and carry. When combined with Errol Gulden, both players shape as strong candidates to be primed for excellent seasons across #SuperCoach and #AFLFantasy.

More broadly, there is a clear distinction between players who accumulate points from stoppages and those who benefit from transitional play, largely dictated by role. If stoppages continue to decline, it is reasonable to ask whether contested ball winners will be disproportionately affected simply due to fewer opportunities to score from their primary source — stoppages themselves.

Conversely, does this shift create increased scoring potential for players such as Gulden and McKercher, who rely heavily on transition, given the likelihood of more continuous play and higher transitional possession chains? From a statistical perspective, this outcome appears plausible.

Players with a more balanced scoring profile — drawing points relatively evenly from both stoppages and transition — are unlikely to be significantly impacted. A player like Marcus Bontempelli, for example, may not experience a notable decline due to his ability to score both inside and outside the contest. Instead arguably, the players most at risk of a negative impact on #AFLFantasy and #SuperCoach output are those who rely heavily on stoppage-heavy roles, particularly if the reduction mirrors what was observed between the 2015 and 2016 seasons.

Based purely on available data and scoring trends, a ruck such as Tristan Xerri, whose scoring profile is overwhelmingly stoppage-dependent, may be priced above his likely output if that source of scoring is reduced. This then raises a key selection dilemma: can an alternative ruck option bridge the gap between Xerri’s potentially lowered floor and the upside offered by a ruck who scores more effectively in transition, such as Luke Jackson?

The data that has been used is for AFL Fantasy but the overall principles can be used for SuperCoach. Less stoppages = less stoppage points, more transitional plays = more transitional points (so to speak).

If you made it this far reading, my goodness you must be bored, if you enjoyed it then, thank you!