In Part 6 of Back To The Future, the Mid-Price Forwards are now under the microscope, with a reminder that a 2018 post-bye average is the basis for the discussion.
Josh Jenkins (Adel, $438,500)
The Adelaide key forward notched up his fifth consecutive season of kicking a minimum of 40 goals in what was a disappointing season for the club, but a strong season for the 30-year-old. With many punters predicting a return to form for the Crows in 2019, the strong midfield group could pave the way for Jenkins to not only kick his bag of goals but also rise into SC relevance despite his awkward price.
Jenkins post-bye form along with a dip in output from skipper Tex Walker makes the athletic big man a potential POD choice this season. Between rounds 1 to 13 Jenkins averaged a lowly 71.5 but lifted that to 95.3 post-bye, 100.9 in his last 8 games and 109.0 in his last 4 games. That equates to a 17.4% increase over his 2018 average and a potential steal for 2019.
I personally wouldn’t be targeting the big man but given his 2018 post-bye form and expected improvements for the Crows with a favourable fixture, he could be a sneaky inclusion at the F3/F4 spot.
Josh J. Kennedy (WCE, $397,800)
JJK is a premiership star, best and fairest winner, dual Coleman medallist and three-time All-Australian as well as a consistent SC performer over the last 7-8 years. 2018 was an injury impacted season, but that didn’t stop the man from leading the competition in average goals per game, which could possibly improve given the 6-6-6 rule.
Averaging only 71.8 before the bye last season, JJK lifted substantially post-bye to 89.6 which was 11.3% greater than his 2018 average. The real value when considering JJK is his low-price tag. Paying under $400k for a perennial top 10 Forward is hard to pass up with his 2018 post-bye average a whopping 22.3% above his starting price for 2019.
In the same price range as Worpel, Dahlhaus, Greene and Armitage, JJK is probably the most appealing of the five players given he is a proven SC stud who can go BIG on a team sure to win plenty of games especially at Optus Stadium. Keep an eye out for any updates on his fitness but if selected round 1, I’d expect an increase in his ownership.
Jack Billings (StK, $437,600)
It hurts adding this bloke to the list as he killed my team last year, so when deciding if he should be thrown on the ‘never-again’ pile I realised just how well he performed post-bye in 2018. One of the best talents at the Saints, his star power was rising at the end of 2017 but hit a severe speed hump from rounds 3 – 11 last year. During these 9 games he averaged a shocking 60.8 and the Saints went without a win before pulling the pin and sending the kid back to the two’s. JB dominated in the VFL with a 54-disposal effort and was brought straight back in. From that point on he was the player we wanted him to be.
Billings averaged 93.4 from that point on which included three 100+ games and an extra three games above 95. Billings 2018 post-bye average of 92.8 is 15.1% greater than his 2018 average and presents coaches with great value again for 2019, depending on how you view his start to 2018.
Currently 4% of us (myself included) believe that Billings true form is closer to his post-bye average and will be rolling the dice on the youngster. If he can obtain further midfield time and convert his chances in front of goal, he could well push close to the 100 point average.
Hope you all enjoyed reading through this Series!
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3 thoughts on “Back To The Future – PART SIX (Mid-Price FWDs)”
Billings’ price is just too tempting, as is Greene’s.
Nup , his consistent sub 60 scores last year caused me to vomit all over the place, nothing there that represents a return to that post bye form.Single handedly prevented from a top 1k finish. Particularly with hanners in the mix.
I trust Billings, but I don’t trust Alan Richardson, so he’s a no from me.