CBAs, Kick Ins & Reports – 2023 Match Simulations

Hot off the press: a wrap of the match simulations that took place over last Thursday and Friday. Before laying anything out it’s important to preface all this data and analysis by readumbrating that these outings were match simulations and were a ways off from true season proper match conditions. Lots of experimentation, very medium paced and low pressure, plenty of open ball and loose men and by no means representations that you can take to the bank 100%. What can, and should, be discerened here is really form and presentation and, to some degree, inferences around role.

Given these were match simulations there was no official and accessible SC scores or disposals tallies nor, in some games, exact data for some metrics. A few of the numbers are round ups and approximiations and often the amateur camera work didn’t cut to the kick ins as usual AFL coverage does. CT (a big ups to him) however has done his best and together we’ve got the CBAs, kick ins, ruck splits, disposals as well as a report. We’ll do the same for the official practice matches next week, for which we’ll have more fulsome data sets with SC scores and exact numbers.

GEELONG v HAWTHORN

CBAs

• Sample: B22 CBAs over 4 quarters
• Bruhn 67%, Holmes 50%, Dangerfield 40% Parfitt 37%. Guthrie 33%, Atkins 30%, Clark 20%, Bowes 13%
• Newcombe 67%, Worpel 57%, Day 50%, Ward 40%, Hustwaite 30%, Maginness 23%, Nash 20%

Ruck Split at CBs

• Reeves 73%, Meek 17%, Lynch 10%

Disposals

• Stewart 20, Holmes 19, Bowes 17, Ratugolea 8,
• Sicily 21, Worpel 18, Day 18, Macdonald 15, Greene 9, Weddle 8,

Kick Ins

No exact numbers available courtesy of Kayo’s signature camera work but it was Stewart and Tuohy for the Cats and then a melange of Sicily, Hardwick, Bramble and Scrimshaw. Nothing out of the ordinary for either side.

Report

A very open, low paced affair with a lot of experimentation a ways off the season proper. Even in those conditions Sicily and Stewart were just pure class with easily the best skills by foot and decision making across the field – no reason to dissuade you from starting them. Bowes, for whom I personally don’t see an immediate path to being B22, came out absolutely firing – likley in an attempt to rectify that exact issue. Spun his way through the midfield with a strong K:HB ratio, high MG and strong impact stoppage play – was clearly trying harder than anyone else out there. Faded in the last two periods, seeing a lot of the bench. Weddle, who we all assumed was a solid rookie, played a weird press up wing role and was torried and frightened with his limited use. Sprayed one OOFT and was unclean with the rest. A shame as structurally their doesn’t seem to be a spot that he can just waltz into.

Ratugolea drew high praise for his intercepting work sitting in the hole but honestly it couldn’t have been made easier for him: sat in the hole with a 20 meter radius of no one near him, no direct opponent, no pressure and just had dump kicks fall into his lap. Given he is ultimately more of an athelete, however impressive, than a footballer at this stage, it’s hard to see how the Cats risk him in a back six defense. With his size and the Cats exisitng stocks, there’s no way they’d just give him a totally freed up role. He’d therefore have to play on an opponent with some degree of accountability, which he really doesn’t have the craft for. Henry also played forward, but remains a utility for the Cats and can return down back the minute the Cats are off Ratugolea. Might seem a little harsh but better to be perspacicious at this stage and let a practice match performance and Round 1 sheets persuade you.

Day played on ball and looked very good, using his light frame and play reading ability to extract and distribute the ball quickly but still applying some grunt. Price and the longevity of both that role and his body raise questions but that’s how the Hawks opted to use him in their first hitout. Worpel conversely was lazy and cheap in his possession, poor in his work rate and use and ultimately a ways off in returning to his previous SC highs. Just didn’t pass the eye test. The game as a whole was probably a rather poor representation of what the Round 1 CBAs will look like for these sides, with the Cats letting constants in Atkins and Guthrie chill and the Hawks rotating a healthy mix through. Blicavs, who many of us were considering turning to in order to remedy the ruck dilemma, just remains too versatile – played mostly forward and then wing.

GOLD COAST v ESSENDON

CBAs

• Sample: entire game, asterisk over players in 2nd string MID group
• Anderson 61%, Rowell 61%, Davies 48%, Swallow 39%, Blakely 39%*, Humphrey 17%, Flanders 9%
• Parish 78%, Setterfield 74%, Merrett 48%, Caldwell 44%, Perkins 39%*, Shiel 35%

Ruck Split at CBs

• Draper 42%, Phillips 30%, Bryan 28%

Disposals

• Flanders 17, Constable 12, Witts 10, Long 9, Anderson 8
• Parish 29, Zerrett 14, Ridley 11, Redman 8, McGrath 8

Kick Ins

• Constable 4, Long 2, MacPherson 1
• Ridley 3, Hind 2, Redman 1, McGrath 1

Report

A real awkward set up in this sim with little to report. Went on for ages, Dons didn’t start a B22 and held back and chopped out their best and then the 2s swapped on half way through. Moved a very disjointed pace from intense and contested to slow and open. All that could be discerned was presentation.

To that end, Menzie made quite an impact with 3 goals and good set of hands. Priced above basement and a forward in a side like the Dons but if you could push him to F7 he could be a slow burn just on talent. Zerrett didn’t play the whole thing but there was nothing wrong with is game and Parish was similarly serviceable without being earth shattering. The Suns started a B22 minus Miller and it was great to see Constable finally look to be staking his claim. Started at half back and was really good: majority of kick ins, aggressive and deft with his use and 12 touches which, relative to the conditions, was strong. No Powell or Weller certainly does him a favour but no reason why he shouldn’t be in your side right now. Flanders was a total try hard all afternoon but even in a match sim with no Miller he couldn’t carve out any MID time. Suns run such a settled engine room, not viable SC role for Flanders accordingly – he’d need an insane stoppage to stoppage work rate.

The Dons backline couldn’t really be assessed either. Play was open, there weren’t strong man on man match ups and a lot of the time the entire defense was loose. Ridley looked limber and Redman still explosive off his few touches, but both went off after the third period and it was unclear whether Ridley was still being used in an accountable role.

High draft pick Humphrey had some good moments coming on ball and plays with real presence and Berry, in search of some stability, also started in the 22 and looked right up to level with clean possession in a half forward role. An easy start on our FWD benches.

NORTH MELBOURNE v RICHMOND

CBAs

• Sample: 4 quarters, asterisk for Dow replacing Prestia after 3QT
• Davies-Uniake 82%, Phillips 67%, Zurhaar 67%, Powell 59%, Curtis 11%, Shiels 11%
• Taranto 70%, Hopper 70%, Short 70%, Prestia 56%*, Dow 22%*

Disposals

• LDU 31, Ziebell 23, Phillips 19, Powell 17, Goater 11,

Kick Ins

• Ziebell 5, McDonald 4
• Rioli 6, Vlastuin 4, Ralphsmith 2

Report

We’ll start with the biggest headline of this game: Ziegull. After word Clarkson wanted him down back again, Ziebell reprised his mastery in the art of not defending at all and just seagulling. While McKay, Logue and the rest of the defence were busting their ass trying to account for their man, Ziebell sat in the hole, went for contested intercept marks, took kick ins and distributed. Probably won’t have the total freedom he had in that famous year as Clarkson looks to implement a defensive system but he’s gonna be good enough for 90-95 minimum in such an SC lucrative position – the match sim backed that up.

The next focus was the on ball battle. The first name mentioned just simply has to be LDU. He was simply capital. Dominant all day, decided in his use and continued to build on the contested work that gave him that back-end boon late last year. Remains confident with the ball in hand and not frantic and just wanting to dispose of it as he used to. We’ll have a piece on MID breakouts but the long and short of it is if you were hot on LDU you absolutely hated this sim…got him on everyone’s radar!

Going up against him were the Tigers newly minted midfield brigade in Taranto and Hopper. Role there, got touches, no issue but I’ve got to say they looked kind of enfeebled? Got pimped in LDU in a lot of clearances, a fair bit of butchery and just didn’t seem to be able to wrest control of the flow of the game as those big MIDs do. Only a match sim and they’re still both locks on their fixture and role but probably do need to remember that they’re not A graders and are in one of the weaker midfield systems.

To the rookies, Goater was disappointing. Didn’t turn up at half back, instead on a wing were he was either quiet or inefficent. Cannot pay 200k for a winger at North, HB maybe but looks like Ziebell returning has closed that door. Phillips looked very strong: put on some size, followed LDU’s lead but won ball and clearances of his own and looking to relish the space in the midfield. Simpkin injured will help him, so a must have rookie.

CARLTON v COLLINGWOOD

CBAs

• Cripps 84%, Hewett 70%, Kennedy 60%, Cerra 48%, Docherty 36%
• De Goey 64%, N. Daicos 52%, Crisp 44%, Adams 40%, Mitchell 36%, Lipinski 16%, Elliott 16%, J. Daicos 16%, Pendlebury 16%

Ruck Split at CBs

• Cox 50%, Cameron 38%, Frampton 12%

Kick Ins

• Saad 4, Newman 2
• Howe 4, Maynard 2, Moore 2, Daicos 2

Report

As the CBA numbers show, the Pies churned a bunch of guys through the midfield and gave no real approximation of what their season long midfield will look like. You’d assume Titch and Daicos up to proper loads and far less rotations. Their use was quality but weren’t on ball consistently and the game lacked repeat stoppages. Cripps picked up were he left off: purely on ball, beast mode and looked to really be helped by the return of a supporting cast and an off-season. Had a minor injury issue afterwards but reportedly no worries. Cameron continues his slip from must have to “ugh” after the Pies look set to persist with the Cameron-Cox split that they shifted to late last year. While Cameron actually quite good and involved around the ground, he really needs a healthy ruck majority at the coal face to have an economy to ton. Docherty, whose flagged midfield shift in Walsh’s absence has plenty hot on him, was insignificant. No issues with use (or no more than usual) or involvement but very awkwardly split between the midfield and defence had the ball pinging over his head most of the game. Still gets deferred too a lot but expecting him to return down back with Cripps, Hewett, Kennedy and Cerra more than capable OB – which is fine, he’ll still be Top 6 playing at HB. Pittonet a no show for those that were interested, needed to have been ready to rock by now. He’s out.

SYDNEY v BRISBANE

CBAs

• Parker 70%, Gulden 70%, Rowbottom 56%, Warner 44%, Mills 33%, Roberts 15%
• Neale 67%, Dunkley 67%, McCluggage 63%, Ashcroft 44%, Bailey 33%, Mathieson 19%

Kick Ins

Mostly Lloyd and the McCartin Brothers, with no Blakey inflating what they’d otherwise get. Rich and Coleman for the Lions, no surprises there.

Report

Terrible camera work and a commentator who thought he was down at the races left little to be discovered in this one really. Neale slayed, Dunkley slotted in magnificently going to bat for Neale but also finding his own ball and hitting the scoreboard twice and then Ashcroft was a nice addition bringing hunt and intensity to each stoppage with some audacious use. The CB load he was on will probably be about right, as high impact player he doesn’t have a massive tank yet so it’ll be mostly MID time otherwise rotated or benched. Note that Neale did have a trio of injury complaints post-game as a result of running and gunning in a sim, all minor the Lions are saying though.

The Swans didn’t try to take it up to the Lions on ball, instead opting for a soft rotation of a bunch of players. Gulden was their best and the clear standout but tried much harder than the rest, Warner was strong without being spectacular, however Mills was dicked around at HB and HF in a continuation of the Swans propensity to use him as utility rather than a full time MID. At that price you’re probably better served to just go with someone else than rage at the TV every weekend because Mills is out of the CB. Just trailing Gulden for the Swans best was Heeney, who was all class. We know when he’s fit he’s a star that can do triple digits, it’s a tough sell at that price amongs tall the other FWD options but he’ll be Top 6 again this year and has upside in a rising side like the Swans.

McKenna was terrible. 4 OOFT, many more clangers, unecessarily ridiculous long option kicks and no game sense. Got in position well but then absolutely squandered it each time. He could probably beat out McKenna for that HB spot now but Wilmot instead lined up on a wing. Hungry and covered the ground well but still very raw with often askew use. On a wing and without substantive development on use, only take him on your bench at this stage.

ST KILDA v MELBOURNE

CBAs

• Steele 88%, Crouch 83%, Windhager 42%, Gresham 29%, Clark 29%, Sinclair 29%
• Oliver 71%, Petracca 50%, Viney 46%, Harmes 46%, Pickett 42%

Ruck Split at CBs

• Grundy 58%, Gawn 42%

Disposals

• Brayshaw 16, McVee 14, Grundy 7
• Steele 24, Windhager 13, Marshall 11, Clark 9, Phillipou 7

Kick Ins

• May 9, Bowey 2
• Sinclair 4, Wanganeen-Milera 2

Report

Stacked with SC options, this game was the one to watch. Lucky for us the headlines were all pretty snappy!

Steele was 100% OB, tackled, racked it up and slotted one all with no strapping. Some noted a sluggishness and looking a little thin but no real red flags on my end? Looked ready to go. Satan was indescribably good with supreme contest to contest work, brilliant extraction and great hands – don’t see how you can’t start him. Petracca had a tremendous scoreboard impact and looks set to develop more of a forward role at about a 70:30 but still have the obvious MIDs a cut above him.

There were a bunch of simple reads down back as well: Clark can’t hack it, Sinclair just a god and for the Dees Brayshaw remained at half back with 13 kicks out of a 16 disposal total and 9 marks. His role looks secure and should enjoy a bump just on having some continuity back there. No Salem seems to have sparred them the dilemma of reconfiguring. Clark and Sinclair did have chunks on ball and Wanganeen-Milera is now at half back, so there’s some issues there but expecting a) them to settle positionally and b) NWM’s use was very poor, so can see them scaling back the economy he has. Phillipou was quiet but then closed the game out really strongly with two strong contested marks I50, two goals and, from that, greater confidence to chain up which he did. Really nice.

Per the figures above, Gawn and Grundy had a 60:40 split in Grundy’s favour, with the non-CBA ruck starting FWD. Both were nifty inside 50, hit the scoreboard and looked to have more speed than recent memory. Seems the move will prolong both their careers and work for the Dees but definitely capping one another’s ceiling. A key fallout of the double ruck sitch is it doesn’t look like van Rooyen, despite the warranted hype, will be able to figure his way in with Brown, McDonald and 2nd ruck all up forward. Not starting the sim was further indication of that unfortunately.

FREMANTLE v ADELAIDE

CBAs

• O’Meara 80%, Brodie 76%, Serong 68%, Brayshaw 64%, Aish 12%
• Berry 68%, Laird 64%, Schoenberg 48%, Crouch 44%, Soligo 28%, Rankine 16%, Rachele 12%, Brown 12%, Keays 8%

Ruck Split at CBs

• Darcy 75%, Jackson 25%
• O’Brien 88%, Himmelberg 12%

Kick Ins

Nothing hard and fast for the Dockers, it was really just whoever was there: Wilson, Young, Pearce and Ryan all had a piece. On the other end of the ground is was all Dawson and a fierce glare for anyone who even looked at the goalsquare.

Report

First look was to the ruck battle. What was the split between Jackson and Darcy going to look like? Was Darcy coming bruise free? Was SLOB still deserving of that moniker after a poor 2022? Darcy came in limber, aggressive and had good elevation. He and Jackson ran a really tight ship, spinning a 75:25 split and remaining in communication and sync the whole time. Jackson, operating on a CBA load much smaller than what he had a the Dees, was still highly involved and economical. Leading in the wing, chaining up at FWD stoppages and then, despite losing the HO battles resoundingly, putting in excellent groundball and pressure work. This was best encapsualted when SLOB and Darcy were on the bench and it was Jackson and the Crows’ reserve ruck squaring off at the CB. Jackson, with a mind boggling lack of distance perception, over jumped at the ball up by 2 meters, fell down but then shot back up, tackled the incoming Crows MIDs and effected the groundball to Brayshaw. I’ve been hard on Jackson, still think he’s overrated, but he looks to have ingratiated himself really well into Freo’s system alongside an established traditional HO ruckman and is able to remain involved and active across four quarters. SLOB was okay. Turned up in good nick, HO work was serviceable but didn’t see a sign of him recapturing that intercepting and around the ground work – to be fair he looked to play at a pretty chill pace.

Laird put in a total performance. CPs, tackling, accumulation. Raring to go for Round 1. Alongside him, Berry was sublime. Love this kid. Already has the CP intent and tackling down and just needs to develop his two way work and accumulation to elevate and it absolutely showed that he’d taken off-season strides to that end. Looked great. Still a sim and by no means is it tools down but if he were FWD eligible or say a bit cheaper, he’d be a lock. Brayshaw was admittedly not as dynamic. He held back a little but was still clean and all over it. O’Meara surprinsgly ended up the top CBA recipient for the Dockers – not sure if that’s just because it was a sim or he’s actually angling for a gig there. Would be interesting if he dislodged the other MIDs.

Fyfe banged on three playing as pure FWD and his craft looked good; set shots, overhead marking, leading. No issues. The stakes were low however, he still remains an injury risk and Freo now have a bunch of really solid avenues to goal through their hard working smalls, a 2nd ruck and a fit Taberner. His fixture might still be a bold enough case to counteract the question marks.

At the other end of the ground the newly minted head honcho Dawson was running the show down back. As a few of us were discussing over at the Crows Preview, Nicks look to have made a decision with his role: half back, not wing, not pinch hitting OB. Think this conclusion can be drawn given how resolutely Dawson commanded the team from the back, how often he was deferred to and the monopoly he had down back. Didn’t feel like a “yeah, we’ll chuck him at half back today” vibe at all. HB far more preferable to a wing, so big ups for prospective owners.

Rookies unsighted.

WEST COAST v PORT ADELAIDE

CBAs

• Sheed 72%, Yeo 60%, Kelly 52%, Gaff 40%, O’Neill 28%, Culley 24%
• Horne-Francis 76%, Wines 64%, Rozee 52%, Jones 40%, Drew 20%, Powell-Pepper 20%

Ruck Split at CBs

• Lycett 14, Teakle 8, Hayes 4

Disposals

• Yeo 26, Sheed 18, Allen 9, Chesser 7,
• Houston 20, Horne-Francis 17, Rozee 15, Lycett 13, Duursma 12, Fantasia 11, Jones 11

Kick Ins

Hurn, Gov, Witherden and the usual suspects for the Eagles and then plurailty for Houston.

Report

I don’t know how this happened but the Eagles looked fantastic! In shape, well drilled, high intensity and with close to all of our premiership 22. It was great to see. The star of the show was Yeo – without question. 26 touches, 12 contested, 8 clearances and 4 tackles and his body held up: covered the ground, got stuck in at stoppages and played with no apparent mobility restrictions. He put in such a show stopping performance that, after swearing him off due to a heavily tarnished injury profile and despite a negative bias against my own team, he’s in my side! Look to the practice match to see how his body holds up but the role is sublime, combining pure OB and then defensive aide when we’re on the backfoot, and he looks aggressive and hungry for 2023.

Sticking with us, Allen didn’t have a massive outing but similarly presented well and stretched himself with no issues, Chesser and Hewett both had low disposal but eye catching performances, with Chesser now solid for Round 1, and Cole did what needed to be done in a replenished defensive system. Ginbey missed but was already on track for Round 1, so no worries there.

Lycett emerged as the best ruck over the two days of match simulations. Came in leaner but with good muscle definition (which is great post shoulder injury), his HO work was excellent even in the face of the Eagles having the upper hand at clearance and remained involved across the ground with great pace and intent. Very hard not to have him as R2 right now. Hayes came on late but squandered his chance to play at AFL level last year and won’t be seen again but Port really seem to like Teakle. Invested heavily in him over the off-season and it showed; he combined natural athleticism and a great contest to contest work rate to keep himself involved across four quarters. Post-game the Port coaching staff were full of praise for both him and Lycett. Finlayson’s return will make things interesting.

On ball, Rozee was pretty flat and uninspiring. Not bad but adjusting to starting and finishing a game as a pure midfielder. Horne-Francis got a team high CBA load and wasn’t anywhere else but OB however he was laregly un-noteworthy. Didn’t seem to have taken any noticeable strides since last year and played an inefficient and single mided game. He’ll have some natural development and trajectory but nothing that screamed “START ME!” at 350k. Maybe not immeadiately SC relevant but Lachie Jones got some OB exposure and was very good – more composed that JHF it has to be said. Butters didn’t play and Boak, who was already set to sacrifice his MID role for the up and comers, went off with an injury issue very early.

BULLDOGS & GIANTS INTRACLUBS

The Dogs and Giants apparently think they’re too good for us to do a sim and instead held intraclubs on the Saturday. It wasn’t televised but courtesy of Abs we’ve got the following scoops:

Richards dancing in accumulation at HB, Dale and Crozier kick ins. Macrae very strong on ball but a bit of HF rotation. McLean deep forward and unseen, Baker similarly a ghost. Tingles quiet, Bont head down doing his job OB.

Whitfield at HB as flagged by Kingsley the week before, got fed. Cogs and Kelly absent but not serious. Green sensational, Callaghan relished a strong CBA load. Preuss dominated Flynn.

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