Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

Lachie Whitfield, is no longer my new favorite player! (Angry squeak) He did not take off for Hamster awarness last week! The nerve, changing his mind!

Um, well, um,

He just put it off a week. He is taking this week off.

Oh, well, that’s ok then. Just the one? 

Seems likely yes. 

Anyways, This is a big week. As will the next few be, Obviously the focus is on who comes in with a minor focus on who goes. So, a few thoughts to hopefully help with ins and outs.

Unless you have a lot of trades, keeping failed premiums may have to happen. Houston and Clark, for example, are a lot better than Lindsey or Farrow, no matter how disappointing they are. In prove where you are weakest, not where you are most angry.

With 11 weeks left to play, players who have no bye remaining have a real edge. If you assume 100 points a week, that 1100 points for the season for a player who has the R12 bye. To get 1100 points over the rest of the season with a bye, a player has to score 1100/10= 110. Big difference. For say Baz, if he goes at 120, that’s 1200 points. A player with 11 games left matches him with a 1200/11 = 109 average. But, price matters. Lets assume Wilke averages 101 for the rest of the season. That’s 1010 points costing $457,500. If Milera averages 104 for the rest of the season that’s 1144 points costing $525,000. Cost per points for Wilke is $458 and the cost per point for Milrea is $453 per point.  Assuming you can afford to bring him in Milera is a bit better.  Wilke’s 1010 points in 11 weeks is just a 91.81 average. Interestingly, there are no defendes cheaper to bring in than Wilke who will likely score at an average of 91.81 or higher, making him a stand out cheap defender option. The only player at any position who cost less and will likely score more points is JHF.  Wilke is not the best cost per point but he is the cheapest defender worth getting in.

So do math before getting anyone who has not yet has their bye!

Yup.

 

 

 

 

A thing when looking at the projections. I use averages. One good or bad score will affect the price a lot. Real playes rarely score about the same each week.

 

Defenders

 

Serong:  Amazing how wel he is doing. Looks like hold to his bye

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	77	119,900
1	54	119,900
2	48	119,900
3		168,900
4	126	168,900
5	75	225,100
6	48	276,100
7	92	313,300
8	39	325,600
9		318,300
10	76	318,300
11	92	324,800
12	71	329,700
13	72.5	345,400
14	72.5	357,369	11,969	11,969
15
16	72.5	357,568	198	12,168
17	72.5	358,395	827	12,995

 

 

Jaques:  Ugh, out he goes

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	84	119,900
1	80	119,900
2	70	119,900
3		193,500
4	67	193,500
5		238,300
6	34	238,300
7	69	250,900
8		259,800
9		259,800
10		259,800
11	31	259,800
12	43	249,900
13	59.8	245,000
14	59.8	238,785	-6,215	-6,215
15	59.8	246,910	8,125	1,910
16
17	59.8	260,262	13,353	15,262

 

Selwood:  Well, he ost some cash, but will make some back it looks like. So, whatever.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	70	119,900
1	38	119,900
2	61	119,900
3		164,500
4	28	164,500
5	74	177,100
6	69	202,600
7	72	224,700
8	59	260,400
9	69	279,700
10	50	293,400
11	25	293,700
12	81	279,100
13	58.0	272,100
14	58.0	272,017	-83	-83
15	58.0	286,517	14,500	14,417
16
17	58.0	287,007	491	14,907

 

Lindsey:  With a BE over 100, this is probably the time to sell. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		122,500
1	61	122,500
2		122,500
3	70	122,500
4	46	122,500
5	80	168,400
6	75	210,900
7	132	244,000
8	68	306,500
9	81	346,700
10	96	378,200
11	55	385,400
12	59	385,300
13	74.8	373,200
14	74.8	357,149	-16,051	-16,051
15
16	74.8	354,117	-3,032	-19,083
17	74.8	358,872	4,755	-14,328

 

Grlj:  Not worth holding past his bye, which is now. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		172,000
1	73	172,000
2	43	172,000
3	68	172,000
4	90	208,600
5	59	242,300
6	66	274,600
7	74	297,100
8	34	306,700
9		302,200
10	55	302,200
11	41	293,600
12	57	272,900
13
14	60.0	266,200
15	60.0	265,040	-1,160	-1,160
16	60.0	272,573	7,533	6,373
17	60.0	279,423	6,851	13,223

 

Blamirez:  Did not play

 

 

Marshal: Did not play

 

 

Carrol: Huh. Trade now, or at his bye. Not next week it looks like.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	54	119,900
1	59	119,900
2	44	119,900
3	40	159,100
4		180,900
5	76	180,900
6	32	204,100
7	106	215600
8	57	253,300
9	43	272,200
10	105	290,500
11	35	303,500
12	82	303,600
13	61.1	318,900
14	61.1	312,570	-6,330	-6,330
15	61.1	319,435	6,865	535
16
17	61.1	315,243	-4,192	-3,657

 

Allan:   Might be worth holding until he makes his money. Still has upside. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		152,600
1	71	152,600
2	58	152,600
3	69	152,600
4	55	200,400
5	35	227,900
6	50	238300
7	29	237200
8		224,900
9		224,900
10		224,900
11	57	224,900
12	76	225,100
13	55.6	235,300
14	55.6	255,850	20,550	20,550
15
16	55.6	270,291	14,441	34,991
17	55.6	271,866	1,575	36,566

 

Watkins:  Did not play

 

 

Farrow:    Looks like hold to his Bye,

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		163,000
1		163,000
2		163,000
3	49	163,000
4	90	163,000
5	102	163,000
6	61	226,800
7	68	278,700
8	53	307,200
9	48	306,100
10	72	299,100
11	91	295,600
12	59	310,200
13	69.3	323,700
14	69.3	334,279	10,579	10,579
15
16	69.3	332,466	-1,813	8,766
17	69.3	335,681	3,215	11,981

 

Edwards:   Ugh, 19, ugh. Hold and hope.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1		119,900
2		119,900
3		119,900
4		119,900
5		119,900
6		119,900
7	45	119,900
8	54	119,900
9	61	119,900
10	50	158,500
11	54	189,000
12	19	211,600
13	47.2	208,400
14	47.2	205,936	-2,464	-2,464
15	47.2	201,113	-4,823	-7,287
16
17	47.2	210,002	8,889	1,602

 

Bond:   Did not play

 

Midfielders

 

Jagga:   Has to be a very low priority trade out. If he even has to go.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	65	119,900
1	113	119,900
2		119,900
3	88	119,900
4	70	206,600
5	53	271,800
6	64	293,700
7	69	298,700
8	70	302,000
9	104	311,500
10	79	335,600
11	108	357,700
12	81	391,000
13	80.3	402,800
14
15	80.3	414,395	11,595	11,595
16	80.3	410,695	-3,700	7,895
17	80.3	407,687	-3,009	4,887

 

Ironbar Bassey  Anderson:  May be worth holding over his bye

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		113,500
1		113,500
2		113,500
3		113,500
4		113,500
5	79	113,500
6	64	113,500
7	73	113,500
8	20	179,000
9	60	200,900
10	71	214,900
11		224,300
12	44	224,300
13	58.7	240,400
14
15	58.7	253,043	12,643	12,643
16	58.7	256,899	3,856	16,499
17	58.7	266,221	9,322	25,821

 

Retschko: Likely worth holding over his bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		119,900
1		119,900
2		119,900
3		119,900
4		119,900
5		119,900
6	74	119,900
7	82	119,900
8	56	119,900
9	72	181,700
10	51	225,900
11	107	244,600
12	43	281,100
13
14	69.3	293,300
15	69.3	311,967	18,667	18,667
16	69.3	309,022	-2,945	15,722
17	69.3	318,460	9,438	25,160

 

Cumming:  Likely worth holding over his bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		176,500
1		176,500
2		176,500
3		176,500
4		176,500
5		176,500
6		176,500
7	80	176,500
8	80	176,500
9	32	176,500
10	40	214,200
11	72	224,200
12	64	228,100
13
14	61.3	243,600
15	61.3	265,813	22,213	22,213
16	61.3	277,405	11,592	33,805
17	61.3	284,734	7,329	41,134

 

Burton:  Did not play

 

 

 

Rucks

MacAndrew:  Did Not Play

 

 

 

Forwards

 

Phillipou:  Can go any time, no rush

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	66	168,400
1	27	168,400
2	42	168,400
3	69	185,400
4		198,100
5	69	198,100
6	40	225,600
7	98	244,700
8	80	271,600
9	58	295,900
10	82	321,200
11	88	332,600
12	71	344,800
13	65.8	357,300
14	65.8	361,374	4,074	4,074
15	65.8	354,583	-6,791	-2,717
16
17	65.8	347,320	-7,263	-9,980

 

Lombard:   If you held worth another week. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0	69	119900
1	55	119900
2	20	119900
3		153,400
4	56	153,400
5	49	170,700
6	45	181,100
7	49	199,600
8	66	210,100
9	57	225,000
10	90	240,900
11	58	270,600
12
13	55.8	289,100
14	55.8	302,060	12,960	12,960
15	55.8	296,487	-5,573	7,387
16	55.8	291,435	-5,052	2,335
17	55.8	287,728	-3,707	-1,372

 

Sharp:  Could be fine, but high risk of cash loss.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		156,300
1	76	156,300
2	44	156,300
3	71	156,300
4	75	200,200
5	83	231,200
6	65	271,800
7	84	298,500
8	84	322,200
9	55	339,600
10	49	347,500
11	71	337,800
12	52	325,200
13	67.4	312,700
14	67.4	313,463	763	763
15	67.4	312,442	-1,021	-258
16
17	67.4	318,495	6,053	5,795

 

Cook:   Another time to go. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		158,700
1	92	158,700
2	62	158,700
3	80	158,700
4	60	220,900
5	63	251,800
6	98	275,400
7	72	300,800
8	94	324,800
9	88	355,700
10	70	372,900
11	67	384,600
12
13	76.9	381,600
14	76.9	374,384	-7,216	-7,216
15	76.9	372,138	-2,246	-9,462
16	76.9	374,862	2,724	-6,738
17	76.9	376,861	1,999	-4,739

 

Lefau:   May be worth holding over his bye. 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		146,900
1		146,900
2	72	146,900
3	44	146,900
4	33	146,900
5	85	174,000
6	35	200,000
7	74	214,800
8	41	243,900
9	63	245,500
10		258,600
11	78	258,600
12	59	270,100
13
14	58.4	284,800
15	58.4	295,190	10,390	10,390
16	58.4	294,166	-1,024	9,366
17	58.4	293,149	-1,016	8,349

 

Robey:   One more week at least 

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1		167,500
2		167,500
3		167,500
4		167,500
5	28	167,500
6	50	167,500
7	25	167,500
8	69	168,800
9	68	187,600
10	91	209,100
11	69	253,900
12	92	287,000
13	61.5	319,900
14	61.5	332,903	13,003	13,003
15
16	61.5	339,134	6,231	19,234
17	61.5	330,248	-8,886	10,348

 

Dodgy Advice:  

If you have Lindsey, or any player with a high BE that you worry will lose money, you can always trade them out and keep someone like COleman, who won’t change in price. He won’t score either, so only if you can afford to have them not play.

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!