Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
As it is the first Cow Talk of the year, here is the annual link that explains the “Small or far way” thing.
Small or far Away – Father Dougal on Cows
I’m Father Dougal, and I write about Supercoach stuff. Mostly maths-ish things and strategy and theory. I’ll also do cow price change projections once we get a bit farther into the season.
I’m also part of the Cow Talk Advisory Panel, aka the C-TAP, along with my Imaginary Interlocutor and my hamster, To Mini Therion .666 – The Little Beast. Say hello guys.
Hello guys! I’m Father Dougal’s Imaginary Interlocutor!
Angry Squeak!
I guess he is still upset.
Oh, for sure.
Not a surprise really. Fortunately I can use that to help discuss this week’s topic. Staying calm v reacting, v over reacting.
I am NOT overreacting!
I agree.
…really?
Yup. You are reacting, but in a reasonable way.
Will you please start making sense?
Yeah, I’ll try.
So, with round 1 done, we finally have at least one data point on everyone who played, and two for the team who also played in Round Zero. With some players on the bubble and most of the rest about to be, these next two rounds are very important for how our teams are set up for the rest of the year. We don’t want to under-correct and we don’t want to over-correct. After being able to change our teams at will for so long, I feel it is easy to want to treat the first few rounds as an extension of the preseason, where we try to make the team we “should have” at the start.
You mean we shouldn’t do that?
Yeah, because now fixes take trades. You spend one to make each change and with only 2 or 3 trades in each round, we also lose what else we could have done with that trade. If you started with player “A” and realize you prefer player “B’, you are no longer picking between two players; you are picking between player A and player B and one few trades. If the difference between them in not worth a trade, then you need to keep player A.
Right, but that’s both obvious and an easy case. Most managers are not going to sweat that sort of thing.
Ok, well, let’s get on with something hopefully more helpful.
If we look at every player in our team and how they did, we have to decide if there is a reason to react and take action. We also need to look at all the players we don’t own, and decide if there is any reason to react and take action.
All of them!!!??
There will only be a few that aren’t obviously a no to that. Cow’s that were missed, keepers that showed something both good and not expected. Of the ones that are not an obvious no, a lot will be not-yets. With such limited data, almost all should be not-yets.
Ok, and therefore?
Then we decide what if anything to do.
How? Get past theory into something useful!
Ok. First, unquestionably appropriate reactions, which is where the Hamster comes in.
Ha ha! I am so not coming in. I shall continue to use the innertubes to communicate, thank you very much, you big jerk-traitor-bad-person.
He is calmer, no obscenities.
There might be kids reading. I am very much thinking the obscenities, I just have too much class to say them out loud, no matter what my feelings about the poop-cleaner-upper.
Owch, harsh but true.
Yeah, ok, so, for those who don’t know, I recently moved in with my partner. Not easy, but worth it. I made sure she got along with my writing partners, and her gifts of pumpkin seeds were well received. There was just one little snag…
Five big snags!
Well, from your point of view. It turns out The Hamster doesn’t like living in a house with cats.
Five Cats.
FIVE CATS!!!
He took it poorly.
I took a phone and power cords, and moved into my bunker. A cat free bunker. A priest free bunker.
Sigh
Day 67, They still lurk. I can smell them. Sometimes I can hear them. Trapped with only the Imaginary Interlocutor and the entire internet to keep me company. I write scathing haikus about troublesome priests….
Anyway, The Hamster saw that something had to be done and did what he needed to do. Not an over-reaction. Like, for example, Errol Gulden. Get a long term injury, go right out of the team.
What else is a clear and obvious has to go?
I’m not sure any score is a certain must go. Remember it is just one week.
What sort of score is a maybe should go?
One far lower than expected, along with a reason to think it was not just a bad week. For example, Jordan Clark scored a 75. But last season he scored lower than that three times and still had a 104 average. Sometimes he just has a bad game. It is annoying to open with one, but it is not outside of what we expect from him. I am not at all inclined to get rid of him because of it. He is not hurt and I don’t have data to think he is not the player I expected in about the role I expected.
I’m not sure what happened with Brayshaw. But, I don’t think he has suddenly gotten a lot worse. But, maybe, just maybe, something is up with his role. So, if he does really badly next week, maybe, not for sure but maybe I would get rid of him. If I owned him.
Yeah, because you ended up with Jye Caldwell instead.
Who I am also waiting a week on. I liked him last year, saw him play a lot, and expected him at worst to average 105 and maybe a lot more. No early bye, good late bye, hopefully a nice discount. Then he puts up a 69. He did put up two lower scores last season, but those were when he was coming back from an injury. Also, the Bombers, well, they are really not doing well.
So you are worried.
Yeah. But, I want to see next week. He did not do badly enough to go after just one week. Another really bad week and I have to reconsider. That’s the way for most players who had a bad week along with a role issue. If you can, wait for a second week.
Anyone who has had two bad weeks and you think should go?
….Kieren Briggs I guess, but that leads into the other thing – who would come in for him. As we said the replacement has to be better. You want someone who will be worth having from here on out, past scores don’t count. Cows are easy; if you missed Jagga, bring him in. Probably after his bye, but that depends on how many trades you need to make. A lot of players start with a few hot weeks then go back to being their boring and not so high scoring real selves. Other players have a few hot weeks and go on to score well, or at least compared to their cost.
Like?
Petracca is not going to average 161 for the season. Practical top average is 130, which means he at best goes for 127 from here on out. Probably less, like 110-155. But he is priced at 96, so get him now while he is still cheap. Anyone who appears to be legit underpriced is worth thinking about.
So, like, in combination, make moves now?
Yeah. If you have someone you are really nervous about and can replace them with someone you are really confident in who is clearly underpriced, then that’s probably a good move. Now, what is clearly? I ended up without Parrish, and while I think he is good to have I am not likely to bring him in. Not sure he is enough better than who I would have to take out. On the other hand, if you have two mid pricers you are not happy with, and there is a cow and a premium you can bring in for them, like Murdock and English pr Jackson, that sounds better.
Because of the best 18?
Yeah. Right now, bringing in players very likely to be best 18 over guys who might not be is extra good. The early byes change how we handle the early rounds from the past.
How about dodgy cows?
If they are not hurt and have a job, they are not dodgy. Serong and Sellwood, for example, are perfectly normal cows. Low cost, going to go up in price, and likely to have a spike score that gets us cash from them. We have been spoiled by mature age guys and a few guns who score well and make a ton of fast cash. Most cows score ok and have bad weeks mixed with the good ones and end up making their money without ever scoring a ton, or even a 90.
I have Sharp and Phillipou and plan to keep both. Even if they get dropped and I have to wait a while. Rule of Cowquisiton Number Twenty Three: “Some cows aren’t worth a trade to deal with. Keep them, be patient, and hope. It’s a long season, sometimes things go right in the end.” There may be other dodgy cows, but it is hard to get the value of a trade out of them. Rule of Cowquisiton Number Twenty Four: “As long as there is an Opening Round and early Byes, do not select a non-playing loophole. By the time you need one, the problem will have solved itself” If Sharp is dropped the problem of my loophole will indeed have resolved itself.
Oh, pardon me while I erase what Oreo wrote.
OREO!! That’s a cat name!
Yeah, she sort of jumped onto the keyboard. I never know until it happens. She’s so quiet and can jump right onto the desk, so all of a sudden, Cat! Right out of nowhere.
(Squeaks and faints)
Oh, well done….
Ooops. Yeah, darn.
Well, um, how about cow-like-objects?
Really cheap ones are close to being cows, although I would trade them out for a long injury. But someone costing 230-250 will still make good cash if they score 60s and 70s. Not fast, but may not be worth a trade. If you have only one week’s data, that’s a big risk. I have Lindsey. He scored a meh 71. If he scores a 50 next week I will probably yeet him, but if he scores a 100 I’ll keep him. I’d feel way dumb overreacting to one mediocre score if he then goes big. I won’t feel dumb if on a best 18 round he does badly and I then trade him out before his price changes. Also, I want to see how the Demons do next week. It may be that he does better and I still decide his role and potential are just bad. Might depend on who I could bring in. No hard and fast rules, just guidelines to try and avoid overreacting.
Anyways, this week, fix things you have to, make upgrades you feel sure about and hold off if you can. If you need / want to make more than 2 trades next week, try and do the rest this week if you can, so you have one left for the unexpected.
Hey, I just realized something. When The Hamster called you “the poop-cleaner-upper” he meant that literally, Litterbox-ally!
Sigh. Like Hamster homes don’t need cleaning….
Lets hope you team doesn’t need a good cleaning.
Yeah. Oddly, while I had a terrible start, as I missed the top 100,000, but I don’t actually want to get rid of lots of guys. Butters captain and a lot of bad scores from I think good players. It happens. Two trades this week, to bring in two guys I want at the cost of two guys I would not mind giving another week, but the improvement is too good to pass up, and I could need three trades next week if all three of the guys I am worried about fail again. The main thing is to be clear on the risks and to be sure.
Thanks for reading!
Dodgy Advice:
Are you awake little dude? It is time for dodgy advice.
Yeah, for me?
I just gave a bunch above for everyone else. So yeah.
Ok…
If you end up out and about, and the really big and very fluffy tabby cat is there, run towards him and not the others.
What, why?!?
Tock doesn’t have any teeth now. So if he tries to chomp, you will be fine.
In his mouth!
Well, yeah, I mean when he brings mice to us they are all fine, if frantically squirming and squeaking. Physically fine at least….
Ahhh!!
Just try to keep him from dropping you until you’re close to a place you can hide and the other cats aren’t too close. And don’t make a lot of noise and thrash around, that seems to attract the other cats.
I am never leaving my bunker!
I will add the address of your bunker to Amazon so you can order pumpkin seeds.
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.
Thanks for reading!