Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

So, the first week of the byes!

Are we going to talk about the byes?

Nope!

But I have something to say about them! I’ve been waiting all year for the byes so i could say my thing!

Wait, really?

Yes! It’s small but useful, like me!

Ok, well, go ahead then.

FD messes up every year by trying to make sure he never has any donuts. But avoiding donuts is not the thing to focus on it is points. The idea is to score points and not avoid donuts. So we should make plans and trades based on what gets us the most points and not get all obsessive about how many players are playing each round. 

Well, that’s al correct, especially the part about you messing up every year. 

Yes, well I am in better shape this year I think. Anyways, yes, well done. Set a high bar there, for a hamster.

 

Anyways, there are some players that I have, in a Supercoach context, negative feelings about.  Mean, anytime I hear people talk about bringing them into a team, I just think “No don’t!”  One of them has been coming up a lot, and I thought I should check if he was really a bad choice or if I was just reacting to non-fact based feelings. Of course it could be both. Just because you have an emotional bias against someone does not mean they aren’t a bad pick based on facts.

Squeak?

Yes?

You wanted to mention the “Bill James” lesson here but messed up the transition. So I’m giving you one. 

Oh, I did, thank you.

So, um quick sidetrack. There was this guy Bill James who studied baseball stats and then wrote about what he found, and all the pros made fun of him because he has never played and numbers from some smart guy were not as useful as inside knowledge. Then a few teams that started paying attention to him and winning and he got hired by the Red Sox and they won a world series and now everyone uses his stuff and even sports that are not baseball do analytics. So, he is sort of important in a sports stats history way.  One reason his stuff was so useful was how he approached analysis. If you asked a sports writer who was the greatest leadoff hitter of all time, they would pick a guy and then try to defend their choice. Bill would say, well, what does greatest mean? Like, helped his team win more than any other leadoff hitter? Then he would have to figure out how to accurately measure how much player contributed to their team winning. eventually, after all that, he could answer the original question, but it would be a good answer, and very possibly the right answer. There would be clear and objective reasons, unlike the guy who was trying to prove something rather than figure something out.

Which is why are you trying to figure out of Travis Boak is a bad trade in rather than find a way to support your possibly irrational belief that he is?

 So what all that?

Well, I was really helpful to me so I am passing it on. Also trying to be clear that I am lookin for real answers and not starting from a conclusion.

Yeah, ok, well, you did, now get on with it. 

So Boak. For the last few years, he starts fast, looks good, and then fades.

2022 first 4 = 138.75, rest of season = 95

2021 first 4 = 117, rest of season = 103.76

2020 first 4 = 121.5, rest of season = 106.3

2019 first 4 = 128, rest of season = 102.29

So, rather clear why you do not want to bring him in after a fast start. My bias is based on knowing he does this. So, rational, early in the season. But, how about now? If cost per expected future point is a/the big thing, then how does he look from that POV?

If he stay at his current season average he costs $4,416.2 / point, which is quite good. But, we already know that he fades after R4.  If he stays at his post R4 average he costs $5.155.8 / point.  That’s not good but not that bad either. And he only plays midfield.  Who else could you get for that cost/ point or better?

Lachie Neale, Jack Macrae, George Hewett, Josh Dunkley, Patrick Cripps, Ben Keays, Touk Miller, Jack Sinclair, Andy Brayshaw, Baily Smith, and Christian Petracca.

And they are likely to have a higher average and a lot of them also play Fwd or Def as well as midfield.

What if you only have $489,800 to spend?

Caleb Serong, Jade Gresham, Luke McDonald, and Zac Butters. Also Darcy Cameron and Brayden Preuss

So…hard to see him being better than all those guys. Might be a tough call between some of the cheaper players, that’s getting into opinion.

So, is Boak a good option? If you need a R12 bye, midfield only player ,and can’t afford anyone better and prefer him to Serong, Butters, and Gresham, and are willing to have your M8 scoring at 95-105 then he is your man!

So, any point to this other than once again talking about Boak?

Yeah. In addition to check if the guys you just do not like might be good options, we also need to look at guys we do like to see if they really are bad options. In other words, actually look at stats and their current role and situation rather than just go with stuff we “know”.  The stuff you know that ain’t so can be far more harmful then stuff you do not know.

 

 

Defenders 

 

Noah Answerth: At this point hold to his bye

 

Jake Bowey: At this point hold to his bye

Heath Chapman: At this point hold to his bye

Sam De Koning: At this point hold to his bye. (This week is easy!)

Josh Gibcus:  Well, not likely to make money, so could go out this week if you need to use his cash.

Mitchell Hinge: Might so a slow gain, although it may be hard to not cash him in next round. Slow gains not so important at this point.

Patrick McCartin: Playing well, but most of us will need his cash in a week.

Nathan O’Driscoll:  Did not play

Kidean Coleman:  That well times 104 will push his price up just in time to be sold R14. Thanks mate!

Midfielders

Jarrod Berry: Now he scores a 127! We were waiting on that score for week and weeks and not that it won’t pay off until after the byes he puts his big score up. Trolling us he is.

Jye Caldwell: Did not play

Nick Daicos: Very ready to be sold at his bye.

Thomson Dow: Did not play

Jason Horne-Francis:  Also very ready to be sold at his bye

Dylan Stephens: Did not play

Josh Ward:  Did not play

Ben Hobbs:  Um, whatever?

 

Rucks

Hugh Dixon:  Did not play

Tristan Xerri: Owch. Hopefully nobody owns him now.

Sam Hayes: Still bringing in the cash, and will play R13. No rush to sell.

Braydon Preuss:  Did not play

 

Forwards

Will Brodie:  Well…I guess you could ssell him at his bye. But he is doing pretty darn well. I can see flipping him to Both or Baz or someone else better who already had their bye. Also can see keeping him

Charlie Curnow: Sell now.

Jade Gresham: Well, there are a lot of guys better available.  Plays R13, so hard to get rid of now.

Nicholas Martin:  Back to his old self, so if you held he may go R15 at this point. Still, cash to be used here. No wrong answer.

 

Josh Rachele: Blah.

Hugo Ralphsmith: Well, anyone who held, hold him longer!

 

Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.

 

Dodgy Advice: 

This may be the time to think about bringing in a perma-loop at Fwd/ruck. Byes here, so very hard to get away with that, but we are low on downgrade options, so need to be thought about if your stuck.

 

Thanks for reading!

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