Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
Hi Everybody!
In the past, I’ve been so traumatized by the byes I had to let my imaginary interlocutor write Cow Talk, and when he was traumatized the Hamster even took over. This year things are far worse, yet I’m doing fine. Why? Company. With the Eagles and Tigers going to the R14 bye, well, We’re all hosed.
Is there any way to avoid this hosing?
Up you nose with a rubber hose!
Wait, what?
Well, it launched the career of John Travolta. I figured you never know.
Um, moving on, we’re hosed and not up the nose.
And what are we going to do about it?
Complain!
In addition to complaining, we’re going to make spreadsheets and then plan trades and then see how few players we have over the rest of the byes and then get creative!
How?
Well, that sort of depends on the specific team?
So you got nothin.
Yeah. Well, sort of. I already talked about not panicking over donuts, so there is that. Since we have two extra trades, I can see using them to fix issues you might otherwise be stuck with. I, for example, am now able to give up on Hunter Clark.
Owch.
Yeah. I have no clue what is up with him, but he is being kept out of the mids, and not getting a lot of time on ground, and he scored a…scored a…..deep breath, 24 last round. He has the R14 bye, so’s I am trading him now for someone who has had their bye. Not ideal, but worth trying.
How about the people, which is most people, who do not have Hunter Clark?
Anyone not doing well with a R14 bye can be replaced and hopefully upgraded.
The other thing, which is again team dependent, is trading out anyone with a way high price, like too high, who has a bad bye, and swapping them to another just as good but cheaper player who will play in that bad bye. Zorko has been mentioned. There are probably others.
That’s it?
Yeah. I thought a lot, and when it came right down to it, there wasn’t a lot of clever on offer this week. Teams are different, and I think the most useful thing I have to talk about is just not panicking, being open to creative stuff, and not letting yourself get trapped by previous plans.
Good luck everyone!
Defenders
Cows
Jordan Butts: Off to Moo-ron Mountain.
Nikolas Cox: He is playing in Round 14, ’nuff said.
Jack Buckley: Did not play
Jacob Koschitzke: Did not play
Thomas Highmore: A seventeen. Ugh. Stupid Sub-rule.
Nathan Murphy: Seems to have established a level and that level is pretty blah. Trade out at bye.
Cow-Like-Objects
Jordan Clark: Did not play.
Changkuoth Jiath: Did not play.
Midfielders
Cows
Sam Berry: Did not play.
James Jordan: Punishing those of us who traded him out after his bad score. Keep until his bye.
Tom Powell: Did not play.
Lachie McNeil: Did not play.
Riley Collier-Dawkins: Didn’t even make his 40 BE. I forgot to change his bye, but the numbers are the same. Trade or hold as needed
Ryan Bynes: Very likely to make more cash before his bye. Trade then. There is a theme here with the R14 bye guys, I am sure you noticed.
Rucks
Matt Flynn: Did not play.
Jordan Sweet: Did not play.
Forwards
Cows
Robertson: Since he plays in R14, he might be a hold over his bye and trade out round 15.
Warner: Again – Last Week: Been so consistent I’m willing to say so and curse him. This Week: I cursed him. And If I recall correctly he won’t even play this week, which if true makes him a trade out.
Scott: Lost cash, will lose more, then make a lot back. He came right back in, which really leads me to think Bevo likes him.
Rowe: A bit disappointing really. Very likely to lose money if held. Very likely.
Bergman: Did not play
Farar: Did not play
Owies: Still growing
Poulter: Still growing, and wow is he good. I’m temped to hold him if I can get away with it.
Jones: A 17, well, so much for his cash generation.
Madden: Did not play
Weightman: Wow does he pass the eye test. I try to talk numbers but this bloke can really play. Might be F7 all season
Cow-Like-Objects
Atkins: Did not play
Daniher: Back to his more recent normal. Soon to be a not cow. He’ll go low every once and a while and maybe high too, but seems to be settling in.
And I somehow lost the ability to uploads files, so the backup plan below.
| 0 | 233,300 | |||
| 1 | 54 | 233,300 | ||
| 2 | 73 | 233,300 | ||
| 3 | 84 | 233,300 | ||
| 4 | 34 | 266,000 | ||
| 5 | 121 | 281,600 | ||
| 6 | 82 | 314,400 | ||
| 7 | 109 | 337,300 | ||
| 8 | 91 | 386,200 | ||
| 9 | 84 | 409,400 | ||
| 10 | 91 | 426,800 | ||
| 11 | 48 | 432,000 | ||
| 12 | 88 | 416,200 | ||
| 13 | ||||
| 14 | 79.9 | 407,000 | ||
| 15 | 79.9 | 394,687 | -12,313 | -12,313 |
| 16 | 79.9 | 399,650 | 4,964 | -7,350 |
| 17 | 79.9 | 399,752 | 102 | -7,248 |
| 18 | 79.9 | 399,827 | 75 | -7,173 |
Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.
Dodgy Advice: You know, if you have both Reeves and Flynn, you get two rucks round 14. Just saying is all….
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.
Thanks for reading!
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Reckon Mummy might be well rested by R14
My favourite read of the week.
Thanks Father.
Thank you!
I was travelling pretty well with trades even before the two extra – and I’ve got to thinking, is it madness to go Grundy -> Reeves this week assuming he doesn’t make a miraculous return… and then Flynn -> Grundy upon his return? 2 Rucks R14 and then less of an issue if Grundy is an extra week away, plus I get a bit more cash out of Flynn.
That’s my plan in a nutshell
I traded H.Clark last round for Lloyd, could see the writing on the wall, it said Clark is not a keeper.
Looking to keep both Jordon and Robertson as my M8/M9 and Poulter and Weightman as my F6/F7.
Just floating another idea about people with waaay high prices…
Oliver is currently 100k more expensive than 5 weeks ago, has a 186 BE, nasty bye and about to get De Boered again after his bye.
Could be 150k cheaper after the next three games.
Oh gosh, that’s a thought. Now I have to check out if there is a way to pull that off. He already has a low score in his average….
I think your 150k estimate is high, especially if you’re talking about his price after three more games (Dees play Collingwood, (bye), Essendon, GWS). Deboer could hold him to 80, but there’s two other games before that against Collingwood and Essendon and I don’t think you’d bet against him scoring at least 110+ in either of those games.
Based on 105, 105, 80, he’d be around 580k after the GWS game and would only bottom out two rounds later (which would be close to the 150k at that point).
If there’s a mid you can bring in this round that will average 110+ for the year, it might be worth it. Has to be this round though because if you wait until Oliver’s bye, the 204 drops out of his 3-round average (which will drop his price around 40k). Likely candidates would be Duncan or Miller in my opinion.
Yeah, it’s probably not something that I’m going to do, because as you say, you need to wait for that low GWS score to role through his average (assuming he actually is tagged by De Boer). So you’re missing 6 games of Oliver’s scoring in the hope he has a shocker.
But…
Say you go Oliver to Jelly today. That’s $142,000 in the bank straight away.
Jelly plays the last 11 rounds back in his mid-role at his 5 round average of 119 – that’s 1309 points.
Oliver goes at his current average of 125 BUT throws an 80 against GWS – that’s 1205 points (because you don’t have a rookie to cover for him in R14).
Lots of ifs, buts and maybes, however in this not-entirely-unlikely scenario, you’re 104 points and $142,000 in front.
It’s cray. But maybe not cray cray.
Thanks Father D.
Zorko went out for Hawkins last night.
I would normally never trade a Premo out for only 2 weeks but the new Byes and two extra trades make it possible. If Zorko manages to stay at F1 for the year it will probably be a fail. For now it seems a logical move. By trading Zorko I get..
By my very flimsy maths, thats 110 points ( Hawkins score ) , minus my worst rookie score, ( currently Jones 43 ) So far I’m 67 points $90K better off.
Then you add in whatever Hawkins scores next week, as I was looking at multiple donuts.
The $90K saves me half a downgrade, and will get me Jelly rather than a Boak / Titch. I guess time will tell if this manages to be a productive move. With GWS’s upcoming fixture, I will bet that it pays off sooner rather than later.
Thank the lord for Newcombe. A $102K rookie with seemingly good JS pooping up at exactly the right time. I think I will go RCD down to him early. It will save him ( RCD ) bleeding cash and give me more scope for trades next week. Hell he might even score enough to be best 18.
Thanks again FD This is a must read every week