Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

 

Hi Everybody!

It is still upgrade season.  I was going to talk about how it is important to upgrade fast, but also smart. In fact, I just did. But, having said that, I’m not sure there is a lot to expand on. I mean, fast, but not at the expense of future growth. And how much trade off is a big it depends.  So, yeah.

What about Flynn?

What about him?

He’s a weird case. If he was playing every week, we would know what to do. If he was not going to play again we would know what to do. But he is in some horrible place where he’ll play some later and grow but how do we know when to give up and trade him out? 

Um…math?

That is your job!

Yes I suppose it is.

Lets say you turn all of his value into points. To make it easy, I’m just going to go by cash value and not add the extra step of converting into points.  He is worth $316,600 now, which means a total of 14 more rounds of using that value, for a total of $4,432,400.  Here’s a little chart showing how much Flynn has to go up in order to keep his value as an upgrade. Meaning you upgrade him., thus using all his value.

 

	Rounds left	Needed Price	Needed Rise
$4,432,400	14	$316,600
$4,432,400	13	$340,954	$24,354
$4,432,400	12	$369,367	$52,767
$4,432,400	11	$402,945	$86,345

So, if he plays round 10 and goes up $24,354 he has the same value on round 11 as he did round 10. If he goes up more, which is likely, then he comes out ahead.

If he does not play round 10,  he needs to go up   $52,767 or more after playing round 11 in order to have as much value as if he had been upgraded round 10. That is not likely.

Now, and this is weird although the math works, if you are going to downgrade him then the numbers are a little different. Say you are going to downgrade him to  $117,300 Shannon Neale.  That means you are only getting $119,300 from Flynn and that times 14 rounds left is $2,790,200 Same chart below with that as the base number. If he misses a round and then makes $33,218 or more the round after, and you downgrade him, you are still ahead. But, if he misses two rounds, you’re behind., because he is not going to make $54,355.

 

	Rounds left	Needed Price	Needed Rise
$2,790,200	14	$199,300
$2,790,200	13	$214,631	$15,331
$2,790,200	12	$232,517	$33,217
$2,790,200	11	$253,655	$54,355

Can you please sum up?

Yeah. If Flynn misses the next two rounds then we are better off trading him now, assuming we can use the cash. If we have so much cash on hand that we can do all the upgrades we want without using the cash from Flynn, then we might as well hold him and hope he plays before we use him. But, odds are that cash can be used.

When is he going to play next?

Please do not look at me like that!

Ok, well, how the heck would I know? I mean, so far Mummy gets two matches and Flynn gets one so Mummy can rest in his sarcophagus, recharging his mystical energy.  If that keeps up, and I am so totally guessing here, then Flynn plays after two rounds on round 12.

Which is the GWS bye.

Oh, in that case, Mummy rests R12 over the bye, and plays the next two so then he needs a rest again round 15. So based on that Flynn plays on round 15.

And round 15 is 6 rounds from now. 

Yes, you can do math!

I made an abacus out of pumpkin seeds

Clever! Anyways, assuming that pattern holds, the only way Flynn is worth holding is if you have a bank so huge that supermodels want to date you,  if Mummy gets hurt round 10, or you somehow wouldn’t use that cash productively  Even if Flynn plays round 13, that is three rounds from now, and he can’t make enough money to be worth what you lose not using him now.

What if I want to trade out someone who is going to lose money first? Then trade Flynn later?

That would be not being able to use it productively. If you have two guys losing cash to use, then for sure use them first!

But just in terms of useful value, sooner rather than later?

Yup

Defenders 

Cows

Lachie Young: His scoring has fallen off a cliff. I need to go look at rookie scoring, as a lot of them seem to have found that cliff.  Could lose a lot, although if you need to playing he won’t lose too much more. I think. Hope.

Jordan Butts: He appears to have topped out.

Nikolas Cox: He followed up his 43 with a 30. Double Yikes. He lost like $40k fast and without any real warning. Sort of worth keeping in the hope he goes back up.

Jack Buckley: Seems likely to go down next round. Anyone who still owns him in the tech leagues can say thanks and goodbye. Or any other owners. He doesn’t look like he’ll lose a lot, but, still he has not gone so well the last few rounds.

 

Jacob Koschitzke: Seems to be stable now, although key forward are never that stable really.

Thomas Highmore: Let the pigeons loose! He’s back!  For how long? No idea! But, he has cash to make, even after that crappy 47.

Cow-Like-Objects

Jordan Clark:  I throw up my hands both real and virtual.  A case of what could have been. Might be still? Who knows? So whatever you need to with him. That 13 leave his three round average this time so he should go up a bit if not the injury sub.

Changkuoth Jiath:  The 61 is a pain, but he missed a lot of time with a head knock, and didn’t score that we for a while after coming back. Wasn’t just a bad match.

Midfielders

Cows

Errol Gulden:  Hurt and out for a while

Sam Berry:  Scored two goals and now has a little cash to make. I feel like he might be the sort of guy you hold all season as a playing backup. I traded him of course already but other people might.

James Jordan: Scoring way well and really a hold ’till bye type.

Tom Powell:  Scoring not well. Badly in fact. That 45 is gonna hurt his cash generation badly, and suddenly he is a trade out target. Notice hos he could score a 74 and still lose $10k? Me too. Bye now.

Lachie McNeil:  Back to be himself, and another round a growth likely.

Riley Collier-Dawkins: He looks like he could make money fast, so even if lots of hurt guys come back, I can see him making good money. If you own him now. If you are bringing him in, which is not mad, there is more risk, but even three rounds could be worth it. If he plays to his bye, yay and we are happy.

Rucks

Matt Flynn:   Wait, Highmore and Flynn playing in the same week? Will wonders never cease. Wait, yes, since odds are Mummy is back next round. We already talked about Flynn, so not gonna go over all over again. 

Forwards

Cows

Robertson:  Another 97 would be nice. Slowly making money, still has a job.

 

Warner: Again – Worst case he hovers around where he is, and likely he goes higher at some point. Has a job up forward, so great.

 

Scott: Back to being himself, money to make, blah, blah, blah.

Rowe: Some nice bonus cash and more to come for those who held him. Another one I wonder if is worth holding long term for backup. Unless your me and traded him already.

Bergman:  Seems to have topped out. Big score could change that.

Farar: Still looks like slow grow until he scores big. Like most cows.

Cow-Like-Objects

 

Atkins: Still eels like a hold until byes. Doing well enough points wise on average. Probably topped out.

Fantasia:  After that 38, he is being exiled to Moo-ron mountain.  Blech.

Daniher: Those brave enough to start with him and then brave enough to hold him, are getting their rewards. Doing fine, why trade?

 

 

Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.

 

Dodgy Advice:  I’m stuck. I said Heeney already. Aaron Hall scares me, although I may get him anyways because of his R12 bye.  The Helmet? Yeah, how about him? Is he back? He may be back.

Oh! Jessie Hogan. $310,800 and a R12 bye.  Nice and dodgy!

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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