Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows
Hi Everybody!
Time for another cow tool! This week we’re going to look at the one on the far left. It’s call the value extractor.
Because it extracts value?
No, because it tells you when to extract value.
How?
Well, if you look at the numbers below for each player, there are columns “Time/Cash Value” and Extracted Time/Cash Value. You see, at some point, less money now becomes more valuable then more money later. “Time/Cash Value” is the projected value of the player time the number of rounds left to play. So, if you use all that cash, how much you can get for it over the course of a season. If you look at Answorth, below, you will see that next round his Time/Cash Value should go up, by a good amount, as should his price. So, holding him would make sense, he is not yet ready for value extraction. Next round, he is projected to go up a little but his Time/Cash Value is project to be about the same. So he could be used or held either way with little real change to how useful he is. One round later, his Time/Cash Value is projected to go way down, and keeping him is worse then using him.
Does Time/Cash Value always just go with the price?
No, if prices is the same it will go down, because fewer round left. Once a player has topped out and stays about the same, his Time/Cash Value goes down.
So trade him then?
Well, you may need him playing or have other players needing to go sooner. But looking at Time/Cash Values can elp you decide who should go first and who should go later.
How about Extracted Time/Cash Value?
That is the same calculation but with $129,300 taken out, because that is a common value of a downgrade target.
Wait, that changes the results?
Yes, turns out it does. That’s why it is there as a separate column. It usually has the best extraction time a round or so sooner than the best upgrade time.
Anyways, this time of year those number are extra relevant. Early in the season you always grow, and later you always harvest. Right now is when we have to think and decide.
Defenders
Noah Answerth: One more round for that 100 to up his price, then time for him to go.
Jake Bowey: Sort of topped out. Could score high or low, so whatever you do has a risk of him going the other way.
Heath Chapman: One more round and then time to sell.
Sam De Koning: Nearly topped out. Hey, someone who the Time/Cash Value says sell now and don’t wait on the increase.
Josh Gibcus: Did not play
Mitchell Hinge: Seems to be hovering around his current price, maybe slow growth. Waiting on a ton.
Patrick McCartin: One more rounds of growth, probably. He might even keep scoring well enough to get us to the byes.
Nathan O’Driscoll: Did not play
Midfielders
Jarrod Berry: Scoring has REALLY dropped off, dang. Rough call what to do if you still have him.
Jye Caldwell: Sell now.
Nick Daicos: Feels like someone who gets traded out R14. Still slowly growing.
Thomson Dow: Did not play
Jason Horne-Francis: Did not play
Brady Hough: Did not play
Dylan Stephens: Did not play
Josh Ward: Did not play
Rucks
Hugh Dixon: Did play! Not likely to go down in price, so if you can hold and hope for a ton, why not? He has not gone up so much that you can easily get value out of him.
Tristan Xerri: Did not play
Sam Hayes: Lots of money to make. No rush at all to trade out. Could be important bye cover.
Braydon Preuss: Looks a lot like a keeper to me. Little reason to trade him out. Six tons in a row, out of six.
Forwards
Will Brodie: Still feels like a keeper but now with his price going up for those who plan to sell.
Charlie Curnow: Odds are very high his season high value will be at the beginning of round 11, so plan to trade him then.
Jade Gresham: Should make money up to his bye, so good. Seems not quite good enough to keep past the byes.
Connor MacDonald: Off to Moo-ron mountain unless he puts up a really big score.
Finn Maginness: Off to Moo-ron mountain unless he puts up a really big score.
Nicholas Martin: Ah, it has happened, a low score that stops his growth. Looks like the time to trade him is now.
Patrick Naish: Wow, 10. He is doomed. DOOOMED. Sell before his plays again.
Josh Rachele: Another guy who might as well hold if you still have. Will ton up sooner or later.
Hugo Ralphsmith: Did not play
Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.
Dodgy Advice:
I….may not have any. Huh. There are a lot of good players available. I’d be pretty inclined to boost if at all helpful. Not sure that is dodgy though.
Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!” (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)
I am time zonally challenged. When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep so replies may take a while.
Thanks for reading!
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Thank you FD.
Another informative and entertaining post.
Cheers.
Thanks FD! Love some Far Side.
Perhaps you can impart some dodgy advice on Cogs?
Kinda baffled that people are keeping him. Seems like a super obvious trade.
He already had 25% CBAs on the weekend – who is McVeigh suddenly going to kick out of the mid rotations to improve his role?
With a 37 in his three round average, he is either a sell now or a keep for a while. I am planning to sell, at least currently. May end up needing him to play if English is still out. I have no idea what is up with him, or any GWS player. Maybe in a month we’ll have an idea what to expect.
Ben Hobbs ?
I will add him next week. This week, he is going to go up with a -41 BE, so don’t sell yet!
Was thinking of hiring him FD looking solid and now with Caldwell injured May hold those 90’s
Great post! Helpful as always