Cow Talk Round 5–>6

Written by Father Dougal on April 19 2023

 

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

This week we are starting the projections. They use the published BEs and  then some educated estimating based on past years for how much deflation there will be. Accurate weeks might get within 100-200 while a weird week could be off by 1000ish. The main thing is the trends are accurately reflected, which helps with the decision making. I also include my thoughts based on the numbers, and sometimes random other thoughts. The number based thoughts are usually pretty obvious and reliable, while any other stuff I say should be given no more weight than any other random chuckleheads rantings, as I have no special ability to give supercoach advice, not that I don’t give it anyways.

 

Defenders 

Sheezel:  He’s here for one week, then already being  promoted and no longer a cow. I was worried he’d go like JHF did last season but, well, nothing like that.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 198,300
1 114 198,300
2 114 198,300
3 120 198,300
4 111 304,500
5 100 381,800
6 111.8 431,600
7 111.8 462,761 31,161 31,161
8 111.8 486,213 23,452 54,613
9 111.8 508,819 22,605 77,219
10 111.8 525,575 16,756 93,975
11 111.8 537,995 12,420 106,395
12 111.8 547,202 9,207 115,602
13 111.8 554,026 6,824 122,426
14 111.8 559,085 5,059 127,485
15 111.8 562,834 3,750 131,234
16 111.8 565,614 2,779 134,014
17 111.8 567,674 2,060 136,074
18 111.8 569,201 1,527 137,601
19 111.8 570,333 1,132 138,733
20 111.8 571,172 839 139,572
21 111.8 571,794 622 140,194
22 111.8 572,255 461 140,655

 

Ginbey:  Sell now for fast cash or hold for more cash later?

If you swap him for a $123,900 guy you get $172,900, which I’m assuming goes on field usefully. With 17 playing weeks left that’s a total value of $2,939,000.  If we wait say 5 weeks to sell him he’d have to make $2,939,000 / 12 (weeks left) = $245,000 to break even, which would be a price of $368,900.  He could ton up twice, soon, but I think the odds are against him making enough cash to make keeping him for profit worth it.  Now, if he is on the field, and you are therefore using his money and he is scoring enough better than your next best option, then the cash & points total might be worth it.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 171,300
1 85 171,300
2 76 171,300
3 104 171,300
4 40 246,900
5 51 282,500
6 71.2 296,800
7 71.2 291,776 -5,024 -5,024
8 71.2 301,857 10,082 5,057
9 71.2 318,269 16,412 21,469
10 71.2 330,434 12,165 33,634
11 71.2 339,451 9,017 42,651
12 71.2 346,135 6,684 49,335
13 71.2 351,090 4,955 54,290
14 71.2 354,762 3,673 57,962
15 71.2 357,484 2,722 60,684
16 71.2 359,502 2,018 62,702
17 71.2 360,998 1,496 64,198
18 71.2 362,107 1,109 65,307
19 71.2 362,929 822 66,129
20 71.2 363,538 609 66,738
21 71.2 363,989 452 67,189
22 71.2 364,324 335 67,524

 

McKenna:  Still has a lot of money to make.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 167,500
1 93 167,500
2 78 167,500
3 57 167,500
4 86 227,300
5 55 268,500
6 73.8 287,800
7 73.8 308,380 20,580 20,580
8 73.8 318,236 9,856 30,436
9 73.8 333,861 15,625 46,061
10 73.8 345,443 11,582 57,643
11 73.8 354,028 8,585 66,228
12 73.8 360,392 6,364 72,592
13 73.8 365,109 4,717 77,309
14 73.8 368,605 3,497 80,805
15 73.8 371,197 2,592 83,397
16 73.8 373,118 1,921 85,318
17 73.8 374,542 1,424 86,742
18 73.8 375,598 1,056 87,798
19 73.8 376,380 782 88,580
20 73.8 376,960 580 89,160
21 73.8 377,390 430 89,590
22 73.8 377,709 319 89,909

 

Wilmot: Also has money left to make.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 51 123,900
2 68 123,900
3 69 123,900
4 50 176,900
5 68 215,700
6 61.2 243,900
7 61.2 260,086 16,186 16,186
8 61.2 277,040 16,954 33,140
9 61.2 286,598 9,558 42,698
10 61.2 293,683 7,085 49,783
11 61.2 298,935 5,252 55,035
12 61.2 302,827 3,893 58,927
13 61.2 305,713 2,886 61,813
14 61.2 307,852 2,139 63,952
15 61.2 309,437 1,585 65,537
16 61.2 310,612 1,175 66,712
17 61.2 311,484 871 67,584
18 61.2 312,129 646 68,229
19 61.2 312,608 479 68,708
20 61.2 312,963 355 69,063
21 61.2 313,226 263 69,326
22 61.2 313,421 195 69,521

 

Cowan:  Seems like a classic low scoring, slow rising player that sooner or later it will make sense to harvest, but not at the moment while he’s still not ripe.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 117,300
1 38 117,300
2 51 117,300
3 51 117,300
4 51 150,300
5 42 180,600
6 46.6 198,500
7 46.6 208,911 10,411 10,411
8 46.6 214,680 5,770 16,180
9 46.6 220,993 6,312 22,493
10 46.6 225,672 4,679 27,172
11 46.6 229,140 3,468 30,640
12 46.6 231,711 2,571 33,211
13 46.6 233,616 1,906 35,116
14 46.6 235,029 1,413 36,529
15 46.6 236,076 1,047 37,576
16 46.6 236,852 776 38,352
17 46.6 237,427 575 38,927
18 46.6 237,854 426 39,354
19 46.6 238,170 316 39,670
20 46.6 238,404 234 39,904
21 46.6 238,578 174 40,078
22 46.6 238,707 129 40,207

 

L Jones: His 88 last round will lead to cash, and if he backs it up with another good score he may really make some good money.  Note how his 5 in round one really has not affected his cash generation a lot. He’ll probably end up the poster boy for that.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 228,100
1 5 228,100
2 76 228,100
3 68 228,100
4 45 236,300
5 88 260,600
6 56.4 283,400
7 56.4 293,879 10,479 10,479
8 56.4 306,691 12,812 23,291
9 56.4 302,205 -4,486 18,805
10 56.4 298,879 -3,325 15,479
11 56.4 296,414 -2,465 13,014
12 56.4 294,587 -1,827 11,187
13 56.4 293,233 -1,354 9,833
14 56.4 292,229 -1,004 8,829
15 56.4 291,485 -744 8,085
16 56.4 290,933 -552 7,533
17 56.4 290,524 -409 7,124
18 56.4 290,221 -303 6,821
19 56.4 289,997 -225 6,597
20 56.4 289,830 -167 6,430
21 56.4 289,707 -123 6,307
22 56.4 289,615 -91 6,215

 

Michalanney:  He’ll need to keep scoring 80-90 to keep going up, but he might do that. Not worth selling now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 246,800
1 62 246,800
2 48 246,800
3 82 246,800
4 103 279,700
5 60 300,000
6 71.0 296,100
7 71.0 323,028 26,928 26,928
8 71.0 328,829 5,800 32,729
9 71.0 337,996 9,167 41,896
10 71.0 344,791 6,795 48,691
11 71.0 349,828 5,037 53,728
12 71.0 353,561 3,734 57,461
13 71.0 356,329 2,767 60,229
14 71.0 358,380 2,051 62,280
15 71.0 359,901 1,521 63,801
16 71.0 361,028 1,127 64,928
17 71.0 361,863 835 65,763
18 71.0 362,483 619 66,383
19 71.0 362,942 459 66,842
20 71.0 363,282 340 67,182
21 71.0 363,534 252 67,434
22 71.0 363,721 187 67,621

 

Buckley:  The one that got away. I think I owned him in the tech league last year and was feeling weird but not getting him, but also about getting him. Should have just done it, lesson learned.  A hold for now as he plays well and is making money. At his average there is no rush at all to trade out.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 205,000
1 76 205,000
2 99 205,000
3 99 205,000
4 80 275,900
5 78 330,300
6 86.4 360,100
7 86.4 375,070 14,970 14,970
8 86.4 388,999 13,928 28,899
9 86.4 403,040 14,041 42,940
10 86.4 413,448 10,408 53,348
11 86.4 421,163 7,715 61,063
12 86.4 426,882 5,719 66,782
13 86.4 431,121 4,239 71,021
14 86.4 434,263 3,142 74,163
15 86.4 436,592 2,329 76,492
16 86.4 438,319 1,726 78,219
17 86.4 439,598 1,280 79,498
18 86.4 440,547 949 80,447
19 86.4 441,250 703 81,150
20 86.4 441,771 521 81,671
21 86.4 442,158 386 82,058
22 86.4 442,444 286 82,344

 

Stocker: Well, he is certainly consistent! Also a hold as he slowly grows.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 216,400
1 74 216,400
2 74 216,400
3 70 216,400
4 77 258,900
5 78 291,100
6 74.6 317,400
7 74.6 336,870 19,470 19,470
8 74.6 350,240 13,370 32,840
9 74.6 358,646 8,406 41,246
10 74.6 364,877 6,231 47,477
11 74.6 369,495 4,619 52,095
12 74.6 372,919 3,424 55,519
13 74.6 375,456 2,538 58,056
14 74.6 377,337 1,881 59,937
15 74.6 378,732 1,394 61,332
16 74.6 379,765 1,034 62,365
17 74.6 380,531 766 63,131
18 74.6 381,099 568 63,699
19 74.6 381,520 421 64,120
20 74.6 381,832 312 64,432
21 74.6 382,064 231 64,664
22 74.6 382,235 171 64,835

 

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Another ton will probably send him up to trade out-land Until then he is a hold as he fattens. .

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 202,800
1 55 202,800
2 105 202,800
3 80 202,800
4 75 258,800
5 72 309,400
6 77.4 331,100
7 77.4 344,724 13,624 13,624
8 77.4 355,885 11,161 24,785
9 77.4 366,547 10,662 35,447
10 77.4 374,450 7,903 43,350
11 77.4 380,309 5,858 49,209
12 77.4 384,651 4,343 53,551
13 77.4 387,870 3,219 56,770
14 77.4 390,256 2,386 59,156
15 77.4 392,025 1,769 60,925
16 77.4 393,336 1,311 62,236
17 77.4 394,307 972 63,207
18 77.4 395,028 720 63,928
19 77.4 395,562 534 64,462
20 77.4 395,957 396 64,857
21 77.4 396,251 293 65,151
22 77.4 396,468 217 65,368

 

Baker: His job appears safe, and we know he can go big. I’m holding until he has another big score, and planning to sell after. Even if he just ambles along at 60 he’s fine as backup and trading out at his bye.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 43 123,900
2 55 123,900
3 95 123,900
4 47 179,200
5 53 222,000
6 58.6 252,100
7 58.6 257,049 4,949 4,949
8 58.6 265,850 8,801 13,750
9 58.6 274,852 9,002 22,752
10 58.6 281,525 6,673 29,425
11 58.6 286,471 4,946 34,371
12 58.6 290,137 3,666 38,037
13 58.6 292,855 2,718 40,755
14 58.6 294,869 2,014 42,769
15 58.6 296,362 1,493 44,262
16 58.6 297,469 1,107 45,369
17 58.6 298,290 820 46,190
18 58.6 298,898 608 46,798
19 58.6 299,349 451 47,249
20 58.6 299,683 334 47,583
21 58.6 299,931 248 47,831
22 58.6 300,114 184 48,014

 

Hollands:  No sign he will have a big score, but if he does it will be sell three rounds after. If not he is another hold while he grows slowly and has a job.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 162,300
1 56 162,300
2 71 162,300
3 66 162,300
4 52 207,600
5 65 239,300
6 62.0 259,400
7 62.0 271,487 12,087 12,087
8 62.0 284,871 13,384 25,471
9 62.0 293,465 8,594 34,065
10 62.0 299,835 6,370 40,435
11 62.0 304,557 4,722 45,157
12 62.0 308,057 3,500 48,657
13 62.0 310,651 2,594 51,251
14 62.0 312,574 1,923 53,174
15 62.0 314,000 1,425 54,600
16 62.0 315,056 1,057 55,656
17 62.0 315,840 783 56,440
18 62.0 316,420 581 57,020
19 62.0 316,851 430 57,451
20 62.0 317,170 319 57,770
21 62.0 317,406 236 58,006
22 62.0 317,581 175 58,181

 

Callaghan: Sort of the Anti – Liam Jones, with a big score R1 and lower since. He will make money scoring 70ish and if you still own him no reason not to hold and make money.  Another guy who will be sold off after a big score. Maybe a week of no Green will help?

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 244,000
1 101 244,000
2 45 244,000
3 37 244,000
4 65 263,600
5 72 261,700
6 64.0 271,900
7 64.0 290,488 18,588 18,588
8 64.0 303,823 13,335 31,923
9 64.0 310,168 6,345 38,268
10 64.0 314,871 4,703 42,971
11 64.0 318,357 3,486 46,457
12 64.0 320,941 2,584 49,041
13 64.0 322,857 1,915 50,957
14 64.0 324,277 1,420 52,377
15 64.0 325,329 1,052 53,429
16 64.0 326,109 780 54,209
17 64.0 326,688 578 54,788
18 64.0 327,116 429 55,216
19 64.0 327,434 318 55,534
20 64.0 327,669 236 55,769
21 64.0 327,844 175 55,944
22 64.0 327,973 129 56,073

 

 

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Set to make cash after he remembered how to play over the last two weeks.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 174,000
1 55 174,000
2 31 174,000
3 47 174,000
4 88 189,000
5 88 215,100
6 61.8 259,600
7 61.8 279,512 19,912 19,912
8 61.8 300,820 21,308 41,220
9 61.8 305,022 4,201 45,422
10 61.8 308,136 3,114 48,536
11 61.8 310,444 2,308 50,844
12 61.8 312,155 1,711 52,555
13 61.8 313,424 1,268 53,824
14 61.8 314,364 940 54,764
15 61.8 315,061 697 55,461
16 61.8 315,577 517 55,977
17 61.8 315,960 383 56,360
18 61.8 316,244 284 56,644
19 61.8 316,455 210 56,855
20 61.8 316,610 156 57,010
21 61.8 316,726 116 57,126
22 61.8 316,812 86 57,212

 

 

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: That 14 will ruin any hopes of further fast cash generation. Hard to see holding him now.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 180,300
1 93 180,300
2 52 180,300
3 89 180,300
4 49 239,500
5 14 263,400
6 59.4 263,300
7 59.4 249,332 -13,968 -13,968
8 59.4 243,581 -5,751 -19,719
9 59.4 259,407 15,826 -3,893
10 59.4 271,138 11,731 7,838
11 59.4 279,834 8,696 16,534
12 59.4 286,280 6,446 22,980
13 59.4 291,057 4,778 27,757
14 59.4 294,599 3,542 31,299
15 59.4 297,224 2,625 33,924
16 59.4 299,170 1,946 35,870
17 59.4 300,612 1,442 37,312
18 59.4 301,682 1,069 38,382
19 59.4 302,474 793 39,174
20 59.4 303,061 587 39,761
21 59.4 303,497 435 40,197
22 59.4 303,820 323 40,520

 

Greene:  Two nice scored will really help him make enough cash to harvest. If he is just average the next two weeks he can probably go, but another big score and he may be worth keeping longer

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 33 123,900
2 49 123,900
3 51 123,900
4 73 151,900
5 76 190,900
6 56.4 231,400
7 56.4 262,414 31,014 31,014
8 56.4 278,058 15,644 46,658
9 56.4 280,980 2,923 49,580
10 56.4 283,147 2,166 51,747
11 56.4 284,753 1,606 53,353
12 56.4 285,943 1,190 54,543
13 56.4 286,826 882 55,426
14 56.4 287,480 654 56,080
15 56.4 287,964 485 56,564
16 56.4 288,324 359 56,924
17 56.4 288,590 266 57,190
18 56.4 288,788 197 57,388
19 56.4 288,934 146 57,534
20 56.4 289,042 108 57,642
21 56.4 289,123 80 57,723
22 56.4 289,182 60 57,782

 

Phillipou: More money to make, so far slow, but one big score and the shoots up.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 166,800
1 76 166,800
2 59 166,800
3 51 166,800
4 61 207,700
5 67 231,200
6 62.8 251,700
7 62.8 271,001 19,301 19,301
8 62.8 286,104 15,103 34,404
9 62.8 295,441 9,337 43,741
10 62.8 302,362 6,921 50,662
11 62.8 307,492 5,130 55,792
12 62.8 311,294 3,803 59,594
13 62.8 314,113 2,819 62,413
14 62.8 316,202 2,089 64,502
15 62.8 317,751 1,549 66,051
16 62.8 318,899 1,148 67,199
17 62.8 319,750 851 68,050
18 62.8 320,381 631 68,681
19 62.8 320,848 468 69,148
20 62.8 321,195 347 69,495
21 62.8 321,452 257 69,752
22 62.8 321,642 190 69,942

 

Phillips: Has a lot more money to  make.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 158,300
1 65 158,300
2 158,300
3 78 158,300
4 67 158,300
5 74 212,400
6 71.0 255,900
7 71.0 283,495 27,595 27,595
8 71.0 305,720 22,225 49,820
9 71.0 320,866 15,147 64,966
10 71.0 332,094 11,227 76,194
11 71.0 340,416 8,322 84,516
12 71.0 346,585 6,169 90,685
13 71.0 351,157 4,573 95,257
14 71.0 354,547 3,389 98,647
15 71.0 357,059 2,512 101,159
16 71.0 358,922 1,862 103,022
17 71.0 360,302 1,380 104,402
18 71.0 361,325 1,023 105,425
19 71.0 362,084 758 106,184
20 71.0 362,646 562 106,746
21 71.0 363,063 417 107,163
22 71.0 363,372 309 107,472

 

Chandler: Bigvarience is scores so far. Another 50 and he stalls, another 90 and he goes up more. We will know much better after this week. Assuming he plays.

Week Score Price Proj. Change Total Proj
0 123,900
1 93 123,900
2 71 123,900
3 90 123,900
4 59 206,800
5 56 252,800
6 73.8 279,400
7 73.8 290,648 11,248 11,248
8 73.8 305,535 14,887 26,135
9 73.8 324,447 18,911 45,047
10 73.8 338,465 14,018 59,065
11 73.8 348,855 10,391 69,455
12 73.8 356,557 7,702 77,157
13 73.8 362,267 5,709 82,867
14 73.8 366,499 4,232 87,099
15 73.8 369,635 3,137 90,235
16 73.8 371,961 2,325 92,561
17 73.8 373,684 1,724 94,284
18 73.8 374,962 1,278 95,562
19 73.8 375,909 947 96,509
20 73.8 376,611 702 97,211
21 73.8 377,131 520 97,731
22 73.8 377,517 386 98,117

 

Please let me know if I missed someone or messed something up.

 

Dodgy Advice: .…Not sure I have any…I mostly am thinking not to pay a high cost per point right now.  That’s point expected, not current average unless you expect the current average for the rest of the season.  Under $5000 good, over $5000 less good. But, that’s a guideline and not a rule.  The Bont, for example, looks like a decent buy to me at $5,203. Wish I could trust DeFloggy….Ohhh there’s some bad advice, De Goey is way cheap per point right now! 

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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8 thoughts on “Cow Talk Round 5–>6”

  1. I think ideally Ginbey needs / could benefit from a rest. But with the injuries we have right now, the Coasters need to keep playing him.

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  2. TU out ginbey, Tom green, Ashcroft
    In Taranto, roberts, Stewart/ Touk miller + 9k

    TD out Ginbey, baker, Mackenzie
    In Marty Johnson, roberts, Stewart/ Touk miller + 83k

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  3. Is it worth trading Cam Mackenzie for Will Phillips, given that Mackenzie has stalled and Phillips has more growth potential? [TU], or to look for cash generation elsewhere [TD]?
    Mackenzie’s growth to date would roughly cancel out what has been missed by not having Phillips, so it is sort of like a correctional trade.

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