Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows

Hi Everybody!

Once again, we’re making hard decisions about buying someone now v buying someone else next week.  I made the below charts, which hopefully will help with those decisions.

 

For chart one:

Since we buy points with cash, how much extra cash to we need to buy the same amount of points over the rest of the season, starting in different weeks?  That is in the “Cash” column. So, if you can get $100,000 for a player this week, but can get  $107,800 or more for him next week, you are ahead.  This assume you are spending all the cash.

If you buy a player who scores 100 points a round for the remaining 14 weeks of the season, you get 1400 points from him. If you want to get 1400 points from a player you buy in a later week, what would he need to score? That is in the “points” column. So if you wait a week, you need a player who will score 107.7 a week.

If you need to make up 100 points, how much extra do you need each week to cover that deficit? That is in the Make up 100 column

Odds are you are not using $100,000 or 100 points exactly. To get an answer for a different amount, like for 85 points, you can take the results, divide by 100 and then multiply by 85 to get 91.545 for 13 weeks left. (107.7/100*85)

 

Weeks left	Cash	Points	Make up 100
14	$100,000	100.0	7.1
13	$107,692	107.7	7.7
12	$116,667	116.7	8.3
11	$127,273	127.3	9.1
10	$140,000	140.0	10.0
9	$155,556	155.6	11.1
8	$175,000	175.0	12.5
7	$200,000	200.0	14.3
6	$233,333	233.3	16.7
5	$280,000	280.0	20.0
4	$350,000	350.0	25.0
3	$466,667	466.7	33.3
2	$700,000	700.0	50.0
1	$1,400,000	1400.0	100.0

 

Chart two shows the relative value of $100,000 if left in the bank.  If you have $100, 000 and do not spend it, it will have a buying power of $92,857 next week, and so on. This does not take deflation (changes to the current magic number0 into account, which will slow the drop by maybe 2% or so, but the below numbers are still a good guide.

Weeks left	Cash
14	$100,000
13	$92,857
12	$85,714
11	$78,571
10	$71,429
9	$64,286
8	$57,143
7	$50,000
6	$42,857
5	$35,714
4	$28,571
3	$21,429
2	$14,286
1	$7,143

 

 

 

 

Defenders 

Sheezel: More blip, still looking like a keeper

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		198,300
1	114	198,300
2	114	198,300
3	120	198,300
4	111	304,500
5	100	381,800
6	53	431,600
7	107	438,800
8	110	443,200
9	68	452,000
10	99.7	464,600
11	99.7	470,294	5,694	5,694
12	99.7	469,828	-465	5,228
13	99.7	483,843	14,015	19,243
14	99.7	494,231	10,388	29,631
15	99.7	501,931	7,700	37,331
16	99.7	507,639	5,708	43,039

Ginbey:   Tonning again helped a lot. Rule of Three now applies, and he probably tops out after two more rounds,.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		171,300
1	85	171,300
2	76	171,300
3	104	171,300
4	40	246,900
5	51	282,500
6	62	296,800
7	39	288,900
8	61	283,100
9	108	284,000
10	69.6	305,000
11	69.6	334,255	29,255	29,255
12	69.6	359,820	25,565	54,820
13	69.6	361,337	1,517	56,337
14	69.6	362,462	1,125	57,462
15	69.6	363,295	834	58,295
16	69.6	363,913	618	58,913

McKenna:  Ugh, such a fade after a good start. In danger of losing cash, so looks very tradable.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		167,500
1	93	167,500
2	78	167,500
3	57	167,500
4	86	227,300
5	55	268,500
6	57	287,800
7	70	302,600
8	46	306,900
9	35	306,700
10	64.1	296,000
11	64.1	285,211	-10,789	-10,789
12	64.1	285,426	215	-10,574
13	64.1	298,786	13,360	2,786
14	64.1	308,690	9,903	12,690
15	64.1	316,030	7,341	20,030
16	64.1	321,472	5,441	25,472

Wilmot: Season high score means likely two more round of growth. Not huge growth, but more cash is good.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	51	123,900
2	68	123,900
3	69	123,900
4	50	176,900
5	68	215,700
6	39	243,900
7	63	251,600
8	50	263,600
9	75	264,900
10	59.2	281,700
11	59.2	292,346	10,646	10,646
12	59.2	304,420	12,073	22,720
13	59.2	306,215	1,795	24,515
14	59.2	307,545	1,330	25,845
15	59.2	308,531	986	26,831
16	59.2	309,262	731	27,562

Cowan:  Did not play. 

L Jones: Still looks like time to sell.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		228,100
1	5	228,100
2	76	228,100
3	68	228,100
4	45	236,300
5	88	260,600
6	53	283,400
7	54	293,900
8	41	306,300
9	66	294,800
10	55.1	291,700
11	55.1	289,732	-1,968	-1,968
12	55.1	294,673	4,940	2,973
13	55.1	293,397	-1,276	1,697
14	55.1	292,451	-946	751
15	55.1	291,750	-701	50
16	55.1	291,231	-520	-469

Michalanney: Lost a bit again, might make it back, but really seems to have hit his level

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		135,300
1	62	135,300
2	48	135,300
3	82	135,300
4	103	187,200
5	60	244,200
6	50	291,100
7	51	311,800
8	64	304,100
9	48	300,900
10	63.1	297,200
11	63.1	299,704	2,504	2,504
12	63.1	301,157	1,453	3,957
13	63.1	309,087	7,929	11,887
14	63.1	314,964	5,878	17,764
15	63.1	319,321	4,357	22,121
16	63.1	322,551	3,229	25,351

Buckley:  Ohhh, time to say something else! He stumbled, and if you want cash, now or after his bye.  I am not aware of there being a reason he dropped off, so if just a one off then holding to his bye is fine. If there is one, well, that’s different maybe,.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		205,000
1	76	205,000
2	99	205,000
3	99	205,000
4	80	275,900
5	78	330,300
6	87	360,100
7	91	377,400
8	99	395,800
9	44	419,900
10	83.7	417,600
11	83.7	412,329	-5,271	-5,271
12	83.7	401,468	-10,860	-16,132
13	83.7	411,405	9,937	-6,195
14	83.7	418,771	7,366	1,171
15	83.7	424,231	5,460	6,631
16	83.7	428,278	4,047	10,678

Stocker: Looks like one more week of growth. Interesting question if you trade out a player with his bye. Having another week of data before deciding will be very helpful.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		216,400
1	74	216,400
2	74	216,400
3	70	216,400
4	77	258,900
5	78	291,100
6	58	317,400
7	69	331,300
8	103	338,500
9	73	356,000
10	75.1	375,200
11	75.1	391,984	16,784	16,784
12	75.1	391,779	-205	16,579
13	75.1	392,584	805	17,384
14	75.1	393,181	597	17,981
15	75.1	393,624	442	18,424
16	75.1	393,952	328	18,752

Mitchell: Still lot of money to make. Another good score did help and he looks like a hold for now. Could go anywhere from 30 to 100, so even though he looks good now, next week could be different.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1		123,900
2		123,900
3		123,900
4		123,900
5	67	123,900
6	79	123,900
7	41	123,900
8	54	176,600
9	74	210,300
10	63.0	232,700
11	63.0	259,099	26,399	26,399
12	63.0	282,748	23,649	50,048
13	63.0	295,289	12,542	62,589
14	63.0	304,586	9,297	71,886
15	63.0	311,477	6,891	78,777
16	63.0	316,585	5,108	83,885

Midfielders

 

Ashcroft:  Ton then a 37 and then a 97. Apparently worth keeping for a little longer.  Does seem to play better at home.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		202,800
1	55	202,800
2	105	202,800
3	80	202,800
4	75	258,800
5	72	309,400
6	76	331,100
7	103	345,900
8	37	370,200
9	97	373,200
10	77.8	384,300
11	77.8	380,894	-3,406	-3,406
12	77.8	396,860	15,966	12,560
13	77.8	399,978	3,118	15,678
14	77.8	402,289	2,311	17,989
15	77.8	404,003	1,713	19,703
16	77.8	405,273	1,270	20,973

Baker: Clearly has topped out. Love to get one big score before his bye. As an R15er, holding him to then and then trading is ideal, in theory, but in practice that cash may be needed sooner.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	43	123,900
2	55	123,900
3	95	123,900
4	47	179,200
5	53	222,000
6	59	252,100
7	69	258,500
8	50	273,700
9	58	284,200
10	58.8	291,100
11	58.8	291,404	304	304
12	58.8	295,609	4,206	4,509
13	58.8	299,079	3,470	7,979
14	58.8	301,651	2,572	10,551
15	58.8	303,558	1,907	12,458
16	58.8	304,971	1,413	13,871

Hollands:  …pretty much another Baker.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		162,300
1	56	162,300
2	71	162,300
3	66	162,300
4	52	207,600
5	65	239,300
6	60	259,400
7	60	272,100
8	51	285,600
9	58	289,900
10	59.9	291,700
11	59.9	292,806	1,106	1,106
12	59.9	297,656	4,850	5,956
13	59.9	302,108	4,452	10,408
14	59.9	305,408	3,300	13,708
15	59.9	307,854	2,446	16,154
16	59.9	309,667	1,813	17,967

Callaghan: He went big-ish and certainly could be help for longer. He has sort of topped out and could go up or down. Yeah….that’s all over the place thinking for an all over the place player.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		244,000
1	101	244,000
2	45	244,000
3	37	244,000
4	65	263,600
5	72	261,700
6	77	271,900
7	88	298,800
8	59	328,300
9	85	345,700
10	69.9	361,600
11	69.9	365,025	3,425	3,425
12	69.9	372,501	7,476	10,901
13	69.9	371,190	-1,311	9,590
14	69.9	370,219	-971	8,619
15	69.9	369,499	-720	7,899
16	69.9	368,965	-534	7,365

Rucks

 

Ratugolea:  Maybe hold until you have Gawn or Cameron or some other ruck in the forward line, and trade when you have proper cover.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		174,000
1	55	174,000
2	31	174,000
3	47	174,000
4	88	189,000
5	88	215,100
6	75	259,600
7	43	305,700
8	88	320,000
9	77	331,300
10	65.8	340,100
11	65.8	356,746	16,646	16,646
12	65.8	359,008	2,262	18,908
13	65.8	355,596	-3,412	15,496
14	65.8	353,067	-2,529	12,967
15	65.8	351,192	-1,875	11,092
16	65.8	349,803	-1,390	9,703

Forwards

 

Mackenzie: Back. Does anyone have him still?  Would have been nuts to keep, wonder if having the hamster do his numbers is a waste of pumpkin seeds.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		180,300
1	93	180,300
2	52	180,300
3	89	180,300
4	49	239,500
5	14	263,400
6	48	263,300
7		245,100
8		245,100
9	61	245,100
10	58.0	237,600
11	58.0	251,848	14,248	14,248
12	58.0	266,943	15,096	29,343
13	58.0	276,773	9,829	39,173
14	58.0	284,059	7,286	46,459
15	58.0	289,459	5,401	51,859
16	58.0	293,463	4,003	55,863

Greene:  Did not play.

Phillipou: Anyone who still owns him must be keeping him as cover and a warm body. And maybe he does make money, you never know.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		166,800
1	76	166,800
2	59	166,800
3	51	166,800
4	61	207,700
5	67	231,200
6	39	251,700
7	20	261,800
8	56	251,200
9	43	238,900
10	52.4	231,200
11	52.4	240,050	8,850	8,850
12	52.4	244,998	4,948	13,798
13	52.4	252,948	7,950	21,748
14	52.4	258,841	5,893	27,641
15	52.4	263,209	4,368	32,009
16	52.4	266,447	3,238	35,247

Phillips: Did not play

Chandler: D’oh.  Yeah, looking like time to sell.  He could go big and save himself, but why risk that?

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		123,900
1	93	123,900
2	71	123,900
3	90	123,900
4	59	206,800
5	56	252,800
6	85	279,400
7	104	297,200
8	57	331,400
9	42	358,000
10	73.0	357,600
11	73.0	343,065	-14,535	-14,535
12	73.0	339,546	-3,519	-18,054
13	73.0	350,995	11,449	-6,605
14	73.0	359,481	8,486	1,881
15	73.0	365,772	6,291	8,172
16	73.0	370,434	4,663	12,834

Davey:

Last week: He plays sometimes and score more than zero when he does……

This week: Ok, 7 is more than zero, but ow. What can I say, his level is the mid 40s with chance of being the sub.  Keep for maybe points, sell for some but not lots of cash? No really good answer.

Week	Score	Price	Proj. Change	Total Proj
0		117,300
1	58	117,300
2	45	117,300
3	66	117,300
4	45	163,400
5		191,600
6	44	191,600
7		211,900
8	31	211,900
9	7	212,000
10	42.3	194,400
11	42.3	180,505	-13,895	-13,895
12	42.3	175,322	-5,182	-19,078
13	42.3	187,482	12,159	-6,918
14	42.3	196,495	9,013	2,095
15	42.3	203,175	6,681	8,775
16	42.3	208,128	4,952	13,728

Dodgy Advice:   ….um…I got nothin…..If you have a time machine I have some fine suggestions about who to buy and not buy this season…..

 

Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!

 

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