Cow Talk Round 3–>4

Written by Father Dougal on April 5 2023

Small or Far Away, Father Dougal on Cows


Hi Everybody!


Thai week spending trades can start to get a bit trickier.  If you didn’t use many before, then it is fine to use some now. If you used five or six already, then it may be fine, but some thought is needed. Either way, we doi have a lot of season left and trades are limited, even if not as much as before.

So, how much is a trade worth? In cash everyone talks about them being worth $150k. In theory that number comes from what you want to make from a cow. I sort of feel like that number came from someone’s posterior, but I also don’t have a problem with it as a guideline. But, we win with points, not with cash. So, I figure how many points a trade is worth is a better question.

That’s a complicated question and makes my brain hurt. 

Yeah. For one thing, there’s a time component. Early season v byes v late season. There is also a situational component. I’m gonna try and break them down some.

If you have one trade left, and someone gets hurt, and you have no bench cover, that trade is probably worth about 100 points per week remaining in the season. Last round -100 points. Three rounds left – 300 points, and so on.

If you hold a trade for the last round and you can’t use it, Zero points! 

Like you and Father Ted at Eurovision!   

My Lovely Horse was a great song!

Should have been My Lovely Hamster!

Well, I will grant you that, because why not.

Anyways, yeah, you can end up with a zero value trade or maybe a trivial gain. If you hold more trades than you can use in the last round some are sure to be zero.

Which won’t happen. 

Right, but we’re looking at situations. Like, if you have bench cover but that guy will score 50 and you can use a trade to replace an injured premium, then maybe you are getting 50 points a round, and again, could be a number of rounds.

So there are a few ways that your last few trades end up being worth 100-200 or so points? 

Yes. And the earlier in the season you run out, the higher the value of that last trade if you need it to save points.

So if someone sets their team up with good cover and gets lucky, they could be fine with zero trades. 

Yeah, or close to fine. Might be worth the risk. A winning plan could be to get big points early and hope to get lucky on the back end. But, that’s not what we want to talk about now.

How about early season value?

Much easier. Say you have a guy who is going to average 90 for the rest of the season and you can sideways him to someone who will average 100 for the rest of the season. That’s 10 points a week. This week, that would be 20 weeks left, so 200 points. Now if the difference is 15 points/round, that’s 300 points, and a 20 point/round difference is 400 points.


You have high leverage early on.

Let’s say you want to do a one up and one down upgrade. If you have two guys worth $350,000 each, and you can go down to someone costing $125,000, that means you can buy a guy worth $575,000.  That is going to buy about a 105 average. If you are replacing  a 65 average with a 105, that’s 40 points a round, or 20 a trade. If there are say 15 rounds left, that’s 300 points a trade. If you can do that sooner it is more, later is less, but even the last rookie off field upgrade with just 10 rounds left means 200 points per trade.

So, how does this help?

Well, if you are thinking your last trade will get you 200 points, that means that spending a trade early that gets you at least 200 points is a wash.  But that goes for any amount.

The formula:  I think my last trade will be worth “X” points, so if I think  this trade gets me “X” or more points, it is doable.

How about money, where you have it left over and need to factor it in?

Well, as a rough guide, divide the cash you are getting by 5500. So if you have $50,000 left not used that’s 9.1.  Then multiply that by the round left when you spend it. So if this round you got that $50k and do not spend it until two round from now, that’s 18*9.1 = 164 points. But that’s harder to estimate in practice; it really depends on what you do with the money. But that will work as a guide.

So If I sideways for 10 points a round now, that’s 200 points, but if I sideways for 10 a round with 5 rounds left that’s 50 points? 


So now is the time for sideways and adjusting? 

Yes, if you can do better than what you can get from any other trading. Do not forget upgrades. A good upgrade is worth a lot of points. 300 or more for getting a rookie off the field.

Also, I’m talking like these are hard and firm numbers. What you think is a 10 point a round improvement could be a negative 5 points a round. What you think is 20 could be 10.  So that uncertainly is a thing.

Upgrades are more certain!

Right! That’s why I would make sure not to spend the trades you need for upgrading on sideways stuff early. Sometimes it will make sense but given the more sure big gains from upgrading, I’d try to stick to early adjustments that have a strong chance of paying off and working.  That is by far easiest before the price rises and will get harder as time goes on.

Aside from long term injuries. 

Yeah, I mean those are clearly high leverage, you get something for money rather than nothing. Unless they are a cheap cow, then you may be better off just holding them.


Thanks for reading!



Dodgy Advice:  Kinda what I just talked about above. This may be good advice, but anyways, I’m planning to hold onto Chesser and Constable. Not both in defense, but one each in defense and the mids. I don’t think it is worth a trade to get rid of them, at least not currently. It may be some hot young cow with a high BE shows up before they are back, and then sure might be fine. But, as long as they are not feeding you donuts, might be better to hold and save the trade and use the loophole.


Remember the Cow Talk guarantee: “All predictions wrong or triple your money back!”  (Offer not valid if money is actually involved.)

I am time zonally challenged.  When Cow Talk goes live, I’m probably asleep, so replies from me may take a while.

Thanks for reading!


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

2 thoughts on “Cow Talk Round 3–>4”

    1. Maybe. If he averages 70, he’ll stil make about 150k by his bye. So the two questions are 1) does he have the job security (probably), and 2) are there better / cheaper options (likely).

      Most people avoid rookies after their first price rise because that’s usually their biggest jump, bit in certain situations it can still work out (you just don’t make as much cash as quickly).



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *