Defender TLAs Batch #3

Written by Father Dougal on February 11 2020

Hi Everybody!

Here is the third batch of defenders. Again, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math. 

Christian Salem

Year Games Average Age TLA
2014 12 34.4 18
2015 10 74 19
2016 8 69.8 20
2017 16 79.5 21 80
2018 21 82 22 84
2019 20 90.5 23 88
88-95 92

He’s not yet old, he is slowly improving, but there is no reason to expect a big jump that I know of. Likely to get what you pay for, and might get lucky if he somehow breaks out. 


Dan Houston

Year Games Average Age TLA
2017 16 73.4 19
2018 22 77.5 20
2019 21 89.3 21 90
90-97 92

Not lots of data, but enough to be optimistic. TLAs are not very helpful in predicting breakouts, because that is an unexpected jump in TLA! But, we can see that he has always scored well and gotten better every year, and is only 22. The 2018 to 2019 jump was big.  I think he looks like a 92 if he says as a defender, with more upside than downside. If he does go into the mids, he could do much better. Low downside, big upside. 


Jack Crisp

Year Games Average Age TLA
2012 10 51.5 18
2013 2 44 19
2014 6 85.7 20 86
2015 22 89.4 21 87
2016 22 86 22 87
2017 22 82.8 23 88
2018 22 95.8 24 89
2019 22 88.9 25 90
87-94 90

He’s demonstrated a clear level of 88 or so, and failed to make the jump people who looked like me were hoping for last season. Looking at this, that was quite silly. Nothing in his history said he was going to keep going up. Falling back to his established level was more likely. He is probably improving just a bit year on year still, soon to be losing a bit year on year.  If you buy him priced at 89 and he goes for 95, big whoop. There are much better options. 


Brodie Smith

Year Games Average Age TLA
2011 14 50.1 19
2012 19 64.9 20
2013 18 75.6 21
2014 22 93.5 22
2015 19 77 23
2016 21 75.4 24
2017 22 82.2 25 85
2018 2 87.5 26 86
2019 22 88.6 27 86
82-89 85

Sure was durable after that injury! Proof coming back and playing 22 can be done. But not every time….Anyways, he is priced right at what he is probably worth, and at 28 there is no reason to get him in for that price. 


Lachlan Weller

Year Games Average Age TLA
2015 3 38.3 18
2016 22 61.4 19
2017 22 71.7 20
2018 22 74.4 21
2019 17 88.6 22 89
87-93 90

Lachlan who???  I’d swear I’ve never heard of him before. And I look him up and he plays for the Suns. Yeah, explains that. He certainly could do better, but no reason to expect it or risk buying him. Next year, if he has a good 2020 and the Suns are much improved, he’ll be on the edge of relevant. If he was a little younger, then maybe. But, he’s not, so unless someone knows something about him, not a Supercoach option. 


Jeremy McGovern

Year Games Average Age TLA
2014 13 82.5 21
2015 17 79.6 22
2016 21 87.9 23 86
2017 22 90.7 24 87
2018 21 89 25 88
2019 21 87.5 26 89
86-92 89

I might be giving his two year run of decreasing scores too little weight, but they are very small decreases. At 27, he could still have a career year, but there is little reason to expect one. I’d prefer to go with someone younger. He has a good chance of scoring what you pay for, or right there abouts. 

Nick Haynes

Year Games Average Age TLA
2012 8 37.1 19
2013 11 64.5 20
2014 8 71.4 21
2015 17 68.5 22
2016 16 84 23 80
2017 16 75.8 24 81
2018 22 75.2 25 82
2019 19 87.4 26 83
81-88 83

He has a long history of being meh, with one better than meh season at 26. Regression seems a lot more likely than progression at his age after just one ok year.  

Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading!


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16 thoughts on “Defender TLAs Batch #3”

  1. Love reading these posts, great insight. I’d be interested to see some more unique picks (particularly relevant in draft) such as;
    Dawson, Witherden, Blakely, Milera, SPS, Burton and even Hunter Clark.


    1. I think apart from Hunter Clark, they have all played 3 years + so hopefully there’s enough data available to determine their TLA.


      1. I’m planning to so as many players as I can, and will be sure to ask for any I have missed before the season starts!


  2. Welcome first time recruit Dan Houston. Saw him play against my bombres last year and he killed it….that helps.


  3. I think Weller fits the profile of a potential breakout. High draft pick, coming into 6th season, steadily improving average. At worst he is a A- B+ option. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a kick to 95 this year. If Suns can improve, maybe even more. In my mind he’s not the worst option this year.

    I like Ryan, Williams and Houston from this exercise. If Stewart wasn’t injured through the preseason, he would definitely be there. Weller is probably one step below those.


    1. I’m with you Phil. Have been on the Weller bus for a while now. He was carrying niggles for a lot of last year too so could have gone larger. Is getting up the ground a lot more too.
      Not sure I have the cajones to start him, but he does tick EVERY box for a breakout in 2020 and to that end, I wouldn’t be surprised seeing him finish as a top6 DEF this year.


      1. But what if someone else gave you the cojones AS – Young Lachie could be a sneaky potential Queensland option for defence in the Tech League Allstars.

        Would that take your pain away temporarily ??


    2. Houston & Dawson are big pre-season watches for me, have Ryan in & would like to find a way to get Williams in, just very hard when I’m pretty set on Doc & Doedee, Roberton is waiting in the wings too., might come down to how many Rowell, Boner, Young types I pick.


  4. Wouldn’t the Sun’s defence have had more of the ball than anyone else?
    Oh no, maybe they just saw it more than anyone else. LOL


  5. Brilliant job. Just note McGovern is no where near ready to play. Still injured, barley running, wouldn’t think he plays R1.


  6. On Dan Houston.

    Another post today from Hinkley saying that Houston is ‘a lock in the midfield’.

    Just because he is getting lots of midfield time does not mean he will score better than the other defenders around his price. There are plenty if midfielders that dont get near the ton average. A few off i can think of are players like sidebottom (94), Wines (88), taylor adams (96), Heppell (94), swallow (88), o’meara (90), ziebell (90), Hunter (95) – the list goes on. These are all better players than Dan Houston imo. I’d be much happier with a williams or sicily type that are almost a lock to average 100. Just a thought


    1. I think what you’re trying to say has some merit but you’ve gone with the wrong players & roles from last season, of the guys you’ve listed only O’Meara, Swallow & Wines played majority inside mid last season & Wines was badly injury affected (97.3-100.7 5 ave years previous), Sidebottom & Hunter played wing, Heppell half back, Adams multiples roles & injury affected.


    2. Obviously you have a point. However you don’t JUST select someone because they will be playing midfield. Most players, even midfielders just are not Supercoach relevant.

      When you select a top end guy like a Dangerfield, Fyfe etc you know your paying up for the very best and we expect that. Likewise with a Laird in the defence we expect around the 100 average mark. But we aim to pick players with upside. Therefore lets say for example players you mentioned such as Heppell and Swallow were also available for defender selection. Just because they’re now available as defender we still wouldn’t pick them because they have no real room for improvement. What i am trying to say is Houston is expected to improve + have a change in role hence the selections in peoples teams.

      With Houston – Firstly he has proven that even as a defender he has been able to score reasonably well. Secondly, at only 22 he has the scope for natural improvement that we would expect to see. And thirdly, he comes with a bonus that he will be playing midfield. Now this doesn’t guarantee he is going to be a good selection but everything is pointing towards improvement and natural upside.

      Also, as Dann mentioned there are different midfield roles. Houston is an inside midfielder rather than an outside one. This means we expect him to have more contested possessions which are more favourable than uncontested possessions (explaining why the likes of Dangerfield and Cripps score better than Gaff)

      For the record though you are not wrong in any way and if money isn’t an issue i would also prefer Sicily and Williams 😉


  7. If you’ve never heard of Weller then I’m skeptical about your footy knowledge !
    His age is most definitely relevant and important with a steady increase with points and so far durability looks good just about to get to the start of his peak age.
    If he simply increased is average by 5-10 He’ll likely be a top 6-8 defender.

    You’ve stated the Salem is not old yet and Implied Weller was too old yet he is younger than Salem with extremely close averages?

    To say he is not a super coach option flabbergasts me!

    Each to their own, absolutely entitled to your opinion but still staggering.



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