Fallen Premiums – Round 10, 2024

Written by Abs on May 15 2024

The byes are approaching, and with that it feels like Dayne Zorko has hypnotised the SC community this week. Tom Stewart and Clayton Oliver were both mentioned last week, and while they didn’t set the world on fire, both continue to be valid selections for value-seekers. Sitting at 233 overall, and need to shoutout the great man Sam Darcy for embarassing half of my premiums this past round.

Sam F1rcy


Couldn’t imagine being a non-owner watching this debauchery…

Jayden Short (RIC, $382.1k, (-$169.1k), 77.8 AVG, 18 BE) talk about a discounted premium. If Short was 450k+, he’d be an absolutely garbage selection with Tom Stewart (who’s also got his own concerns) not far off in price, but he’s 382k which IMO, makes him quite relevant. As it stands, Richmond is absolutely decimated by injuries, yet there is still a heap of mouths to feed in the Tigers defence. The obvious elephant in the room comes from Short averaging 69.5 points in the four games prior to injury. Fremantle rank 16th easiest for defenders to score against according to SC Gold, and wouldn’t you believe that was the opposition in which Short returned and scored is 115 points. I’ve also included his two heat-maps since returning from injury just below. Not amazing, but also about what to expect considering the conditions of both games. Ultimately, I personally think there is some merit to grabbing him, let him help cover the byes, and then plonking him at D7. Quite a team dependant risk/selection, but at that price there is definitely worse punts to take if you’re Short (pun intended) on cash and need a defender.

Backing it up…
Harry Sheezel, $575k, 168 BE
Dan Houston, 581k, 149 BE
Lachie Whitfield, 515k, 139 BE
Nic Martin, 589k, 130 BE


Christian Petracca (MEL, $555k, (-$112.7k), 110 AVG, 88 BE) it’s been a while since a player carried a game quite like Tracca did against the Blues. Firstly, even as a Gawn owner I need to know how he possibly went 111 while Petracca was only rewarded with 134 points for that mammoth performance. Shifted forward with a season low 30% CBA’s, Tracca slotted 5 goals, racked up 21 touches, had 7 tackles, 2 goal assists and was once again, shafted by Champion Data. Neal-Bullen was the direct replacement it appears for Petracca in the middle. And while I’ve seen some concerns the 2021 Norm Smith Medalist will be spending extended stints forward, I’m personally not too worried it’ll severely impact his mid time. I’ll also just flag that the DPP talks won’t be happening (at least at the upcoming DPP changes), Petracca has only accumulated 22% forward time. As for the scoring this season, Trac has only gone below 90 the one time (59 points vs Lions), and his recent scoring slump has come from the added attention he has been receiving. The fixtures are also softening up for the Dees, Eagles, Saints, Freo, Pies, and then North fresh off the bye. I’m personally considering both Petracca and Oliver, with the Instagram pasta chef the only one I can really see doing 110+ from here.

Errol Gulden (SYD, $564k, (-$58.1k), 104.1 AVG, 133 BE) an underwhelming season thus far for Gulden, and one I definitely didn’t expect to have dropped off in scoring the way he has. The CBA’s this season have remained at the 36% Errol averaged in 2023, and while I don’t think you should even be remotely considering Gulden until he hits his bye in 2 weeks, he’s one to keep a very close eye on. First bye, high breakeven, could be a very strong M8 for a heavy discount, and there’s no doubt Gulden can have a big second half of the season.

Limbo land…
Matt Rowell, 598k, 192 BE
Tom Green, 528k, 180 BE
Noah Anderson, 561k, 157 BE
Connor Rozee, 522k, 153 BE*


Rowan Marshall (STK, $525.8k, (-113.3k), 107.1 AVG, 28 BE) look away those that traded out Marshall two rounds ago. Personally, I don’t know anyone that’s in the market for a ruck this week, especially now that Jordon Sweet is apart of full training and is seeming likely to solo-ruck against the Hawks. For those that are in the market for a ruck, a healthy RoMo with a strong Marvel fixture run to close the season out should be considered (yes, even over English). Just be wary, he won’t be rucking against North and Hawks every week, but the value is ever apparent…

Max Gawn, 704k, 178 BE
Jarrod Witts, 577k, 166 BE
Sean Darcy, 568k, 137 BE


This is a safe space, did anyone end up fielding Cadman?

Luke Jackson (FRE, $473.8k, (-$73.2k), 99.2 AVG, 95 BE) with Sean Darcy most likely to miss another round, discounted ruck cover in the form of Dogga should be one for consideration. The byes are approaching, and having a swing-man to cover the likes of Sweet, English, Gawn etc. during the course of the byes is always a preferred strategy. Sean Darcy missed last week with calf tightness, and has been listed as a test once again for the clash against the Saints. Even if Darcy was to return, there are many question marks regarding his fitness, and Jackson has been scoring at a consistent 75-90 range even with Shrek in the team. The play does appear to be “wait til after his bye, grab Jackson sub-500k” which is what I’d recommend, especially for those running Jordon Sweet at R2 that didn’t pounce last week.

Forward thinking…
Shai Bolton, 460k, 166 BE
Nat Fyfe, 399k, 150 BE
Jeremy Cameron, 468k, 140 BE
Isaac Heeney, 632k, 132 BE


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16 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 10, 2024”

  1. Jackson and Macrae are two forwards that are constantly in my head about whether to trade them in. Neither are performing but I’m paranoid one will break out and won’t have them in the team.
    Jackson last week only had 12 hitouts from 49 ruck contests playing against Grundy. Has Marshall this week and still a tough run of ruck opponents after.
    The bye and DPP is the only thing that makes me inclined to trade him in.

    Going the bold move and bringing in a POD of Caldwell. Hoping it doesn’t hurt avoiding Jackson


    1. I was eyeing off Caldwell but wanted to see how he went when Perkins came back. He did only attend 2 CBAs on weekend but is a key part of the midfield once its general play as they like to use Stringer in the CB’s and then he moves back inside 50 after.
      I would definitely bring him in if it wasnt for his bye so Im now thinking Rankine instead.


      1. He had 7 clearances last game and was playing on the forward 50, going straight to the ball at the centre bounce. Stringer only had 2 clearances and not sure what the point was of starting him at the centre bounce.
        Has average of 100 over 6 games excluding his injury against WC and is playing North and Richmond the next two games.

        I have limited funds to use this week as I want to offload Reid but have a loop in the forward line and not deal with Darcy Jones on field again.
        Caldwell will be my 5th premo out for that bye, with 4 or 5 every other week. So my team is quite well rounded for the byes to bring him in.

        Many disagree with my choice, but they did the same when I mentioned Zorko a few weeks back and brought him in. Got to take some risks


        1. Yep I had the same logic, only reason im not bringing him in is the bye. I was eyeing him off before the eagles game but decided to go with merrett as I wanted another look at caldwell with perkins back.
          I dont think I can bring in anymore rd 14 bye premos now.


    2. FWIW, I prefer Caldwell to Macrae. Definitely a great POD with immediate upside with the Dons nest few games.


  2. I agree that Short represents value. Also agree that he would make a good D7. The unfortunate thing for me is that I am more focused on filling in the onfield premo upgrades. Others might be further advanced, but for me it’s too early for D7 shopping, no matter how good the value. R15 is also my weakest bye round, so he wouldn’t be available in the week I need him most.


  3. Have 600k to spend on my M8 – thinking one of Oliver or Petracca given their discounted price. Don’t have Steele/Walsh/Rowell but thinking Oliver/Petracca represent better value.

    T/U Oliver
    T/D Petracca


    1. Same situation for me LeGoat.

      Only difference I need to cull Sam Darcy or Tom Powell for Trac as oppose to Howes for Oliver.

      I do prefer Petracca if you don’t have any hard rookie culling selections to make


      1. Thinking you can get away with culling Powell for Petracca. It’s likely Powell’s CBA’s will increase this week with Sheezel going back but Essendon’s mids will dominate and Powell has been largely disappointing when given CBA opportunities anyways.

        Graham and Reid out for me to accommodate the trades so nothing too damaging going forward. Going Oliver gives me the extra 100k to get Houston for Comben next week … will be a game time decision I think


  4. Am I crazy to think of bringing both Jackson & Short in this week? Ruck cover and a future D7 at a big discount, hard to pass up.


    1. Nothing wrong with it, except you will likely have to upgrade your D6 as your last priority to get value from Short first. No point having him on the bench when you still have rookies on the field to upgrade.
      He might make 100k cash and be almost a stepping stone player for you.
      You just need to be confident he will perform for you


  5. Looking at forwards and having difficulty finding a f6. Think I might grab Bolton next couple of weeks as swap with someone like Curnow- and loop the highest score from the two if possible and use as injury safeguards. Does this make sense?


    1. Bolton…jeez…balls of steel…his last 3 have been sub 70’s…the 3 before that were decent 100’s…as your F6 I’d definitely think about it, but massive risk IMO


  6. Don’t mind the Bolton call, Yze all but admitted that he’d given Bolton the wrong role over the past few weeks and was now planning to put him in a role that allowed to ‘express’ himself a bit more. The only drama is with their injuries is he going to get enough ball to ‘express’ himself?



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