Fallen Premiums – Round 12, 2024

Written by Abs on May 29 2024

Welcome to the byes… Feels like just yesterday we were dealing with them.

This weeks iteration will see me gloss over the R12 & R13 premiums, and instead discuss those that have at least two games before hitting their bye.



Credit: DFSAustralia.com

Christian Salem (MEL, $345k, (-$75.8k), 75 AVG, -19 BE) I’ll be quite honest, I haven’t remotely watched a lick of Melbourne the last two weeks, so everything I’ll be saying will be going off data. Quite a popular selection this week at a cut-price. My initial instinct was to go and have a look at Salem’s heat-maps (which I’ve attached above), and both seem much improved compared to the first few rounds of 2024. Against the Saints Salem notched up 32 touches, (24 kicks to 8 handballs), 75% DE, 14 uncontested marks, 1 tackle for a result of 121 SC points. The 14 uncontested marks bring me back to Jack Billings who in Round 1 had 15 marks, 119 SC points and turned out to be an absolute bust of a pick. With prior burn-man history, Salem is one that I’m not bullish on whatsoever, but the negative BE in conjunction with potential to utilise as a M9/D7 makes him somewhat viable. But I’d personally much rather Connor Rozee for 70-odd more in a few weeks.

James Sicily (HAW, $545.3k, (-$92.1k), 96.8 AVG, 93 BE) since the stinker (43 points) in Round 1, the Hawks skipper has averaged 103.5 points, with a 3 round average of 109.7 points. While the heights of previous seasons seem unattainable in the current landscape, I personally believe Sic screams value. The last bye (Round 15) also seems quite handy considering Round 14 is the killer for most coaches. The only caveat comes from potentially waiting and grabbing a Dan Houston, Hayden Young type after their bye next week. Regardless, Sicily is a great buy, and as it stands, a very strong POD.

Backing it up…
Elliot Yeo, 570k, 190 BE
Nick Daicos, 665k, 152 BE
Luke Ryan, 671k, 136 BE


Zach Merrett (ESS, $590.3k, (-$59.8k), 118.6 AVG, 130 BE) much like well renowned seagull Luke Ryan, it just seems like the Bombers skipper tonning up is inevitable. Mr. Consistent has found himself at sub-600k, which for a player with a season-low of 94 points is absurd. There’s really not too much to say, if Merrett works for your byes, I’d be targeting him this week, if not, the high breakeven allows you to easily wait to purchase Zerrett post-bye. But definitely one you’d most likely want to have in a finished midfield (especially with his trend of finishing seasons off strongly).

Sam Walsh (CAR, $561.4k, (-$15.4k), 115.6 AVG, 128 BE) back below his initial starting-price, similar to Charlie Curnow who we’ll discuss later, Carlton have an incredibly favourable fixture post-bye, and securing one of Walsh or Cripps in your midfield looks like the play. Thus far, Walsh has been targeted by opposition coaches twice, vs Cats (O’Connor) for a 104 score, and against the Swans for a score of 85 (Jordon). The good news is that on the run home, Swans don’t match-up against the Blues again, and besides the Swans game, Walsh has only sub-tonned once against the Pies with a score of 91 points. Speaking of that 91 point game, Sammy’s biggest issue has come from his clumsy turnovers in conjunction with his disposal efficiency. In the game against the Suns, who have been the toughest midfield match-up this season, Walsh has 32 touches, only 4 contested at 78% efficiency (12% above his season average), which resulted in 114 points. Definitely one I’d also prefer you look at post-bye, but at his price, targeting him this week is fine.

Limbo land…
Connor Rozee, 467k, 179 BE*
Tom Liberatore, 616k, 177 BE*
Caleb Serong, 661k, 176 BE
Touk Miller, 574k, 142 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 633k, 140 BE


Darcy Cameron (COL, $507.5k, (-$7.7k), 96.7 AVG, 70 BE) A POD ruck this week, can only discuss English & RoMo so many times… Averaging 66.1% of the ruck-duties in 2024, and 69% CBA’s. With Mason Cox now ruled out for 6 weeks with an MCL injury, expect those numbers to improve. Averaging 96.7 SC points this season, which includes two absolute stinkers in an 18 v Brisbane and a 54 against the Dons, DCam offers a very interesting POD for those not sold on Rowan Marshall & Tim English as their second ruck to big Maxy Gawn. The negatives do come from the immediate match-ups leading up to Cameron’s bye. English, Gawn and Xerri have been quite restrictive to opposition ruck-men in 2024. Verdict would be, for those sitting outside the top 10k looking for a cut-price POD, or if you’re looking to go left-field in leagues go for it. Those fighting for rank, I’d be quite bullish on paying up for Tim English, Max Gawn, Rowan Marshall or even Brodie Grundy off the bye.

Tim English, 565k, 138 BE
Brodie Grundy, 576k, 132 BE
Sean Darcy, 553k, 130 BE


Rory Lobb too…

Charlie Curnow (CAR, 468.8k, (-$76.5k), 91 AVG, 112 BE) quite frankly, the ultimate play with Curnow would be to grab him post-bye, Carlton have quite a favourable run home, and having someone like Curnow looped with Luke Jackson seems the play with that F6 slot. I’ll also just quickly mention Curnow’s consistency for a KPF, only one sub-seventy score this season. And the added benefit over Harry McKay comes from Charlie getting swung into defence when the Blues are in defence-mode, don’t overlook the scaling & points that come from intercept marks in tight games. I’ve seen a few keen to jump-on the two-time Coleman Medalist this week, and you won’t hear me argue against that. Non-owners, definitely keep a very close watch.

Forward thinking…
Aaron Naughton, 475k, 168 BE*
Dylan Moore, 488k, 145 BE
Isaac Heeney, 610k, 140 BE
Liam Baker, 454k, 132 BE


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5 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 12, 2024”

  1. Another great Fallen Premiums, thanks Abs.

    But you now have me seriously considering trading in some some Blues players …. which I hate you for! 😉


    1. I didn’t watch the game, but folks on here were commenting that he only tonned up because of some scaling over a couple plays late in the game. I was thinking about it earlier in the season, but given his bye, I need to see some more from him before I bring him in.



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