Fallen Premiums – Round 3, 2024

The first official bye round of 2024 has commenced. With that has come more questions and somehow less answers! Guns and Rookies seem to be back, and what felt like safe premiums in Nick Daicos & Hayden Young have both proved to be limp, with their scores falling out of many coaches best 18 scores. We’ll continue to look at the more value selections as we await the incoming discounted premiums we’ve become accustomed to in Fallen Premiums!

Defenders

Elliot Yeo (WCE, $447.1k, 103 AVG, 47 BE) & Jeremy McGovern (WCE, 470.7k, 126.5 AVG, 14 BE) let me start with a loose quote from the show Arrested Development. “Do these Yeo & McGovern type selections ever work? No it never does, I mean people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might but… But this season, it might just work.”  No need to discuss their roles and stats, Elliot Yeo is a contested beast, Gov is an amazing intercept defender. Both will score like borderline Uber-premiums, however, the elephant in the room comes from both of these greats of the game being glass canons. The scoring and value is both there, well, until it’s not. The last three seasons have seen Yeo average 9 games played, Gov has managed just an averaged of 11 games over the last three seasons as well. Both were great starting selections for coaches, in-fact Gunboat Diplomacy nailed the Gov starter pick last season, but ultimately was forced into a trade  and a poor score of 48 points in Round 3 when McGovern injured his hamstring. Best 18 softens the blow if an unfortunate injury comes within the coming weeks, but you’d need plums of steel to be looking to trade either of them in this week.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (STK, $475.8k, 110.5 AVG, 48 BE) the Saints flanker is trending to be quite a popular selection for coaches looking to move Hayden Young on. There’s not much to say about Nas that coaches haven’t already said over the last few days. Great kick/handball ratio, an absolutely silky jet in the Sainters defence whose game style also compliments the 21 year old’s ability to score in SC terms. The one negative I did notice was the kick-in numbers this past game against Collingwood. In Round 1, NWM had 8 of 16 kick-ins, but with Jack Sinclair returning, Wanganeen-Milera only had the 1 kick-in (4 went to Sinclair, 2 went to Bonner). Another potential watch is with the injuries to the Brad Hill & Mason Wood, could we see a reshuffle or any alterations to the role of Nas? I will say, out of all the 400-500k defenders, Nasiah is the stand-out for me, the question should be if you take a small gamble on NWM being a keeper, or kick-up to the likes of Stewart, Houston or Ryan (and if you don’t have Sheezel, that’s your priority target).

Marcus Windhager (STK, $323.2k, 84 AVG, 15 BE) with 83% CBA’s & 104 SC points, do I have your attention? Windhager played on-ball against the Pies, accumulating 6 tackles, 24 disposals, 16 contested at 75% efficiency.  With Brad Crouch confirmed to be out for the next 6-8 weeks, and role looking like it will be sustainable, an 85-90 average seems feasible (which should see Windy rise in at least 100k you’d have to think). The next two games against the Bombers and Tigers are also quite appealing to take advantage of the 106 points that will be in his cash-gen cycle. I’ll also touch on Windhager’s sole 80%+ game from 2023 in which he amassed 85 SC points from 20 touches and 7 tackles. I’m personally contemplating Ryan or Windy this week, the latter being a means to be able to go big and grab Tom Green or Sam Flanders off the bye next week.

Backing it up…
James Sicily, 637k, 195 BE
Nick Daicos, 628k, 167 BE
Hayden Young, 525k, 165 BE
Jack Sinclair, 596k, 153 BE
Jayden Short, 537k, 152 BE

Midfielders

Matt Crouch (ADE, $490.8k, 121 AVG, 36 BE) I discussed Jack Steele last week, and will quickly just say I think he’s absolute value, and the eye-test has been passed in both pre-season games, and now two regular season games. For those with Steele, or looking for a cheaper alternative, Matt Crouch is another midfielder that has posted two big scores in 114 & 128 SC points. The main drawbacks from the Crouch pick come from the low TOG (73% & 74%) in conjunction with the fact it just seems that Laird & Crouch in the same midfield just can’t co-exist properly. Will the Crows look to shake things up having now started the season with 2 losses? I personally wouldn’t be wanting to trade into Matt Crouch, but I can fully understand those that think the reward far outweighs the risk.

Jarryd Lyons (BRL, $258k, 93.5 AVG, -41 BE) I’ll just quickly touch on Jarryd Lyons as well. The role is great, similar to Matt Crouch his TOG has been low, and it seems he only held his spot in the team due to Lachie Neale missing Round 1. So keep a close watch, as there’s a very strong chance he’s omitted or made sub this week. The very lucky bonus this week is that Lions play Pies first clip (which allows us to assess if he’s the sub or just omitted completely). So for those looking to trade the Brisbane Midfielder in, make sure you have a pivot plan in case he’s not best 22.

Limbo land…
Jordan Dawson, 648k, 189 BE
Jai Newcombe, 549k, 179 BE
Clayton Oliver, 626k, 168 BE
Josh Dunkley, 644k, 151 BE

Ruck

Tristan Xerri (NTH, $407.4k, 107.5 AVG, 16 BE) Discussed the big-man last week, and with no other value rucks really raising their hands, we can quickly discuss Xerri once more. Posting scores of 107 & 108 SC points, there’s a select few with Brodie Grundy that are eyeing up a potential cash-grab by downgrading the Swans ruckman in hopes that Xerri can keep up this output and make some nice cash along the way. If you have no pressing matters, need some quick cash, and are not too fond of staying on the Grundy train, there’s some merit to the trade. I will also point out that Xerri does have the Blues this week, the same Blues that let Nankervis score a 137 in Round 1, and let Big O accumulate a fair share of contested possessions (which he ultimately threw away with 38% efficiency). Again, not a pick I’m oppose too, I was actually quite bullish on Xerri pre-season until Grundy went big in R0. Will you be bringing Xerri in?

Timberrr…
Tim English, 715k, 148 BE
Jarrod Witts, 593k, 145 BE*
Kieren Briggs, 591k, 138 BE*

Forwards

Tom Powell (NTH, $312.2k, 112 AVG, -47 BE) the former first round draft pick has started the season off with a bang! Scoring 95 points against GWS in round 1, and then backing it up with a 129 score this past weekend against Fremantle. The CBA’s and role were also both a tick, Powell had 76% in Round 1, and then with Simpkin back, Powell had a whopping 93% CBA’s, more than any other North Melbourne player. He’s averages thus far (in albeit a very small sample size), 27 disposals, 10 contested (8.5 ground ball gets), 85% efficiency, 3 tackles, 7 clearances and 7 score involvements. You could point out his two goals against Freo as inflating his score, but the disposals and grunt work speak for themselves. I personally think the 22 year old has keeper potential at a great price, but I can see why coaches would be wary seeing as the guns & rookies structure has been dominating in these first two rounds.

Harry McKay (CAR, $398k, 121 AVG, -17 BE) while the Jesse Hogan experiment didn’t exactly work for those that didn’t start him, but opted to trade into him last week, McKay presents as a similar potential cash-grab. Posting scores of 130 & 112 SC points prior to his bye, the former Coleman Medalist has a date with North Melbourne this Good Friday. The low breakeven in conjunction with the potential ceiling score, I can see why some coaches are opting to bring the big fella in. Not a punt I’d personally consider, but it’s crazy enough that it just might work.

Forward thinking…
Caleb Daniel, 519k, 179 BE
Dustin Martin, 527k, 145 BE
Charlie Curnow, 545k, 144 BE
Dylan Moore, 509k, 140 BE
Shai Bolton, 500k, 137 BE

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