Fallen Premiums – Round 3

First edition of Fallen Premos for the year will mostly be centred around guys who have out-performed their price, or players who are about to suffer price drops in the coming weeks as the remainder of the price changes start coming through (Don’t you just love Opening Round?).

If you’re like me and scrambling for replacements for more injuries than you have trades for this week, here are some value options.

Defenders:

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera – 584k, (-38.3k) 91.0 AVG, 127 BE

It was always going to be a matter of when, not if. Nas broke through for his first quality score of the year, shaking off an Angwin tag after half time. He will continue to cop a tag most weeks and might not quite score like he did in the back half of last year, but like all the other great young players, he will eventually figure out how to break loose and deliver big scores. There’s a reason St Kilda couldn’t stand to lose this guy, even with the multi million dollar price tag. I’d watch him for another week against the reigning premiers before his bye, then potentially look to bring him in at a slight discount, or one of the other Round 4 bye premos.

Dan Houston – 431.5k, 113.0 AVG, 23 BE

In the opposite boat is Houston, who’s had a much better start to this year than his first in black and white. Averaged 106 in both of his last 2 campaigns at Port, so we know he has the ability to be a premium. Moore and Howe returning is cause for slight concern due to their intercepting ability, but it seems like both he and the team are a lot more comfortable with his role and getting him the ball after another off-season. Less Supercoach relevant, but Schultz also had a pretty average first year with the pies and has now settled in. This combined with Jack Buller’s slower start, maybe it just takes a while for recruits to adjust to our system. Houston is one of the best kicks in the comp and it’s in Collingwood’s best interests to have the ball in that guys hands. At worst, he presents good value at this price, I’m bringing him in this week.

Josh Worrell – 487k, 119.5 AVG, 42 BE

Worrell has had an awesome start to the year and looks to have taken the jump to being a bonafide premo in Keane’s absence. His intercepting and solid use should increase the floor that often comes with key position guys, and he could be a great POD option if he continues this form. Just be wary he was a bit sore during the week with a calf, but has been named to play and thus presents a decent option.

Same thing applies to Callum Wilkie (526k) who has had a similarly great start and plays a similar role. He has the bye coming though if you wanted to wait.

Midfielders: 

Tanner Bruhn – 276k, 100.5 AVG, -42 BE

This guy has looked really good coming back from a year off, the cats seem to like the ball in his hands, and he’s scored from stints in both the midfield and half back. Coming off his bye and with lots of cash to make, he provides a pretty convenient replacement for any failed mid pricers or injured premos you may have. Personally, he’ll be rescuing me from the Hayden Young experience this week.

Bailey Smith – 638.3k, 92.5 AVG, 183 BE

Like most of the Geelong side, Baz just didn’t seem like himself in Opening Round against the Suns with 67 points. He bounced back to usual against the Dockers and should be right from here on out after a week off. Chuck him on your watchlist as he should receive a pretty nice discount after this week with that 183 breakeven.

Andrew Brayshaw – 616.4k, 84.5 AVG, 186 BE

Pretty similar story to Baz, Brayshaw had a shocker in Round 1 with 47, followed by a big bounce back against the Dees. He’s an interesting one as he’s almost certain to be second in the queue behind Serong for opposition attention, as we saw on Saturday. Watch him for another week or 2 while his price drops and consider him from there with the extra sample size.

Rucks:

There’s really not much to talk about here, pretty much everyone has either gone with 2 big set and forget Rucks which is working nicely despite the new rules, or gone for value with McAndrew at R2, who is performing well and seems to be safe so far. Maybe keep half an eye on Sam Draper (326k) if he gets a solo ruck role at some stage, as his price should drop. Also keep the Geelong Ruck situation in the back of your mind, as it seems they’re finally committing to moving on to a younger option in either Mitch Edwards or Toby Conway (301k) who has some more experience in the system, but can’t seem to stay healthy. Either could present future value if they can get a firm grip on that number 1 spot.

Forwards: 

Shai Bolton – 441.5k, 105 AVG, 44 BE

Major buyer’s beware on this one, Shai was electric on Saturday night with 32 touches, 9 clearances and 142 points. We’ve seen this movie before though, one week he looks like a superstar, the next he goes completely MIA. Like last year when he scored 5 points in a full game against St Kilda, followed by a 150 2 weeks later. As someone who had him last year, tearing my hair out every other week isn’t worth it. But with the forwardline options looking absolutely grim at the moment, he’s worth a mention if you can stand the rollercoaster that will inevitably follow.

Murphy Reid – 370.6k, 92.0 AVG, 30 BE

A slightly more conservative option comes in a fellow Freo forward in Reid. He should provide a higher floor, without the same ceiling as someone such as Bolton. I usually don’t like selecting second year players as they tend to have non-linear progression from their first, but this guy is a class player and should give you some consistently decent scoring with Freo looking to use his footy smarts and creativity with ball in hand. A nice value option in the current forward landscape.

 

That’s all for this week, if I missed anyone you’re considering, chuck them in the comments to get some feedback from the community.