Fallen Premiums – Round 4, 2024

LDU, Rozee, Dawson, Newcombe, Gulden… While owners won’t be too pleased, the following weeks should have a fair few ”premiums” appearing at heavily discounted prices. With a bit of normality this week as Adelaide hosts Gather Round in what isn’t a best 18 week. Let’s dive into some of the cut-price players that have surfaced thus far.

Defenders

James Sicily (HAW, $587k, (-$50.4k), 85 AVG, 124 BE) As it stands, Sicily is looking largely SC irrelevant. Sub-600k, looking to potentially keep trending downwards in price, and his role playing loose in defence has been taken away from him. The Hawks skipper is one to  monitor for non-owners, and as for owners? Like we’ll discuss with LDU and Dawson below, it comes down purely to if it affects your trade-plans and structure.

Backing it up…
Nick Daicos, 601k, 178 BE
Jack Sinclair, 596k, 175 BE
Jayden Short, 493k, 159 BE

Midfielders

Clayton Oliver (MEL, $589.5k, (-$84.6k), 92.3 AVG, 164 BE) the Clarinet fresh off another price-drop, heads into a clash one of his favourite matchups. In Satan’s last 2 games against Adelaide @AO, Oliver dropped 174 points and 204 points, proving to not only be a potentially insane POD-play, but a VC/C for those with gonads of titanium. As for us sensible folk (if you can even call some of us that), Oliver fresh off the bye in a few weeks is looking mighty tempting. With an off-season that has been spoken about ad nauseam, Oliver’s CBA’s have slowly been on the uptick with:
63% | 69% | 77% | 80%
And while his scoring hasn’t exactly been reflective, it’s worth noting Finn Maginness did give Oliver attention in Round 2. One to closely monitor for mine, has the Crows and the Brizzy before heading into a bye, and if everything seems to be lining up, grabbing Clarry at around 560k could prove to be unbelievable value.

Luke Davies-Uniacke (NTH, $602.7k, (-$32.4k), 97.7 AVG, 173 BE) it hurts to write this man’s name down. My play to fade Green with a high-ceiling player in LDU (the same LDU that burnt me to a crisp last season), not only didn’t remotely come to fruition, but I didn’t even end up with his score in my best 18 in the round Green missed. The upside to sticking fat with the LDU pick comes from him not having to play Carlton & George “Grabby Hands” Hewett every week. The former pick four was closely guarded at the stoppages, and his incredibly quiet first half in conjunction with just two clearances for the game would usually spark alarm-bells, but in context of this particular game, should really just be brushed aside. I’m personally looking to ship him off, my original trade-plans to get Tom Green revolved around rookies popping up next week, and with that looking unlikely, I can end up with the same structure, same trades used, but with Green over LDU if I act this week. Summarised, holding LDU hoping he can average 110+ from here? Justified, non-owners will be frothing at the mouth if the form turns around. But I can’t blame you for moving him on if it unlocks certain trades.

Jordan Dawson (ADE, $590.4k, (-$57.2k), 82 AVG, 174 BE) from one below-par selection, to a somehow worse  one in Jordan Dawson… To be quite honest, the best time to trade the Crows Skipper was last week, but for those that held faith thinking “surely he can’t butcher the p*** out of it again.” You were half right, Hayden Young sure didn’t butcher anything, but Jordy Dawson with his 48% efficiency sure did. Between Matt Crouch in the side, the lack of options down the line, and an underachieving Crows team, there’s some red flags regarding Jordan Dawson this season. Saying that, he’s one us non-owners have definitely penciled in as a potential pick-up when he bottoms out… If I owned, I’d have flicked him last week, if you’ve missed a big boy premo ala Sheezel, Tom Green, Sam Flanders, and it doesn’t throw any trade plans out, I’d personally flick him. Trading out “premiums” is team dependant, and more often than not, can be a waste of a trade.

Limbo land…
Jordan Dawson, 590k, 174 BE
Luke Davies-Uniacke, 603k, 174 BE
Clayton Oliver, 590k, 164 BE
Marcus Bontempelli, 705k, 158 BE
Darcy Parish, 604k, 158 BE
Chad Warner, 560k, 146 BE
Josh Dunkley, 617k, 144 BE
Connor Rozee, 584k, 142 BE
Tom Liberatore, 618k, 141 BE
Jai Newcombe, 504k, 139 BE
Rory Laird, 644k, 138 BE

Rucks

Rowan Marshall (STK, $614.3k, (-$24.8k), 104 AVG, 167 BE) I’ll just quickly touch on RoMo, for those with Gawn, it may be hard to split English and Marshall for that R2 spot if you’re looking to eventually upgrade the position. Tim English’s ruck time has been hampered by Sam Darcy’s inclusion in the team, while RoMo’s scoring has been hit heavy by clangers. The Saints fixture does  open up over the next few weeks, and then Post-bye, the Saints have a plethora of Marvel games where Marshall seems to play best.

Timberrr…
Rowan Marshall, 614k, 167 BE
Toby Nankervis, 570k, 158 BE
Jarrod Witts, 593k, 155 BE
Kieren Briggs, 591k, 142 BE
Tim English, 702k, 140 BE

Forwards

Shai Bolton (RIC, $490.4k, (-$50.3k), 84.3 AVG, 76 BE) Another to add to the watch list as a potential pick off the bye. Shai’s scoring is known to be erratic, and a price-drop from his starting price was always inevitable. This past game against Richmond where Bolton scored 119 points was the first this season he’s cracked the ton, and an average of 84.3 points may not spark much confidence, but as it stands, getting creative with how we fill out our forward-line is what I expect to be the separator between most teams this season.

Forward thinking…
Taylor Walker, 500k, 193 BE
Dylan Moore, 470k, 166 BE
Jack Macrae, 558k, 161 BE
Dustin Martin, 527k, 148 BE

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