Fallen Premiums – Round 5, 2024

Written by Abs on April 10 2024

Gather Round has come and gone, and with that has come another round of selection regrets (damn you LDU). With many looking to target the likes of Jack Steele, Sam Flanders, Nic Martin this week, we’ll be looking at some other value selections for those not wanting to follow the grain.

The corner of healing…


Tom Stewart (GEE, $602.3k, (-$33k), 103.8 AVG, 168 BE) With a high breakeven, and a date with Hugh Greenwood who paid close attention to Harris Andrews this past Round, Stewart is definitely one to keep a close eye on. I do think age-induced regression is expected from Stewart, but I still can’t not see him being right up there for defenders come seasons end. Especially if Geelong continue to perform as well as they have been.

Backing it up…
Tom Stewart, 602k, 168 BE
James Sicily, 574k, 144 BE
Will Powell, 517k, 144 BE
Harris Andrews, 498k, 141 BE


Two seasons too many in my SC teams…

Josh Dunkley (BRL, $607.2k, (-$36.8k), 108 AVG, 129 BE) As it stands, I personally think it’s insanity to be looking at Jordan Dawson & Luke Davies-Uniacke, as such, Dunkley gets a mention. Thus far, Dunkley’s been scoring quite consistently for a struggling Brisbane Lions teams. The immediate fixtures are by no means easy. Demons, Cats, GWS, Gold Coast, but there’s no doubt at worst, you’re getting a 95-100, and those spike scores he had at times last season will definitely come this season. For those not in love, or already own Jack Steele, Dunkley could be a very nice POD.

Jai Newcombe (HAW, $491.2k, (-$58k), 81.5 AVG, 87 BE) The Nuke finally cracked the ton in a close battle against the Pies. Scores of 66, 66, 84 points in Newcombe’s first three outings left a lot to be desired for those that started Jai, but a strong 110 points against the Pies was a good reminder of the impact Newcombe can have. Duke’s CBA’s have been relatively consistent in that 80% range, the Hawks midfield has just been quite poor to start the season with Worpel being the main stand-out. I do expect when Will Day returns in Round 7 that will be a positive to Newcombe’s scoring. I understand any hesitation on the pick, I personally wouldn’t go there, but he’s one to keep a watch on, especially considering his ceiling games + his price being sub-5ook.

Limbo land…
Darcy Parish, 604k, 193 BE
Luke Davies-Uniacke, 564k, 167 BE
Zak Butters, 658k, 159 BE
Clayton Oliver, 543k, 156 BE
Caleb Serong, 651k, 153 BE
Jordan Dawson, 556k, 151 BE


Lloyd Meek (HAW, $357.3k, 109 AVG, -14 BE) With Grundy on the bye, and many coaches looking to shift the Swans ruck-man on, Meek stands out as a potential cash grab. The biggest concern comes from the fact at any given week Ned Reeves could be brought back in, and you’ll be scrambling to cover Meek if you’ve got him as your R2. Off current form, you wouldn’t expect it, but things change quickly in Football. The reward however, elicits great scoring & cash-gen. It also allows us to wait for the likes of English and Marshall to bottom out in price, and clear up who would make a better R2 to big Maxy (who’s quite good at this football thing). If I didn’t grab Xerri two weeks ago, I’d be pretty split on if I pay up for Marshall/English, or take a punt on Meek. At the end of the day, I’d say it’s purely team dependant on which way to go.

Tim English, 692k, 154 BE
Jarrod Witts, 570k, 147 BE


Jeremy Cameron (GEE, $432.8k, (-$432.8k, (-$29.9k), 84.8 AVG, 85 BE) With a date against North at GMHBA, Jeremy Cameron could not only be a smokey VC/C this week, but also a great week to bring him in. Forwards are no-doubt looking shallow this season. DPP changes coming up in R6 have no one of any interest gaining forward DPP other then Ryley Sanders who’s  borderline. Can Jezza finish the season as a top 6 forward? Maybe, Cats still have North twice, Eagles & Hawks once to come, and it’s not like there is stand-out contention for the top forward spots. Again, I’d grab Flanders or wait for Heeney / Bolton personally, but there should be some attention given to Jezza, especially considering the price, ceiling and lack of forward options.

Forward thinking…
Jack Macrae, 558k, 223 BE
Luke Jackson, 598k, 152 BE


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7 thoughts on “Fallen Premiums – Round 5, 2024”

  1. Great article Abs 🙂

    Be very interesting to see how Clay Oliver goes this week – as his price is now getting very juicy. But would like to see his DE improve a bit this week.

    I also have a big watch on Tom Stewart & Jack Sinclair (DEF), Butters & Dawson in the MIDS (Merrett just too pricey at the moment), and potentially Macrae as a super cheap pick up in the FWD’s.


    1. My rough head maths have Dawson dropping to $520k this week and then stagnating or bouncing back up and Oliver dropping below $500k after 2 more games.

      Both will be hard to pass up on, especially Oliver shows some good form after the bye as you have a couple more weeks to let the rookies price increases flow through.


      1. You still have to account that they return to form. Dawson hasn’t scored a tonne this season.
        Oliver only had one tonne and it was 105

        Need to see a 130+ score first no matter their price


        1. It’s a good call Nat- but who would have thought 12 months ago Oliver would be $543 and a break even if 156?
          Playing with a sore hand/wrist- is that right?


          1. I’m honestly playing the MIDs straight this year. Already so many marginal FWDs.

            Got Bont, Green, Butters and Gulden, bringing in Rowell this week and will then target Petracca, Serong and probably Libba.

            Will target fractionally fallen DEFs like Sinc, Stewart and maybe Sicily.


        2. I mean, Dawson’s last score was a 99 so to say he hasn’t tonned yet, while technically correct, is a bit pedantic.


          1. I’d say this comment is pedantic…

            Original comment just noting that bringing in a player as a premium mid might be inadvisable if they haven’t shown this season that they’ll score like a premium (i.e. ~120 avg).



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