Upgrade season is in full swing for most, and with that comes an abundance of discounted premiums. Nick Daicos and Max Gawn both seem to be the flavour of the week at hefty discounts, but there’s plenty of different directions you could take your team in.
Defenders
Jordan Ridley (ESS, 508.9k, (-$43.7k), 77 AVG, 112 BE) for some he’s known as the ultimate burn man, and for a small portion of the community he’s heralded as a POD during the 2020 season. Firstly I’ll mention Ridley’s scoring in 2024, the twenty six year old averaged 111.3 points in his eight full games last season. But with that comes the main drawback from the pick, something always seems to happen with Rids, whether it’s just pure bad luck or an unfortunate injury, Ridley hasn’t played out a full season since 2020. The role is solid, there’s a healthy amount of kick-ins, and the price is definite value with significant upside on offer. But be warned, this pick is not for the faint hearted.
Harry Sheezel (NTH, $570k, (-$65.6k), 104.4 AVG, 95 BE) finds himself with a hefty discount from his starting price. And while his role continues to fluctuate, the quality is ever apparent with Harry. If my memory serves me correct, Sheez began the season priced at an average of 118 points, however averaged 113 points last season as a mid / HF, and with that seeming to be his role going forward (after a game at HB against the Swans), I do think now’s definitely a fine time for non-owners to consider bringing him in. Sheezel dropped 138 points against Carlton late last season in the aforementioned role, and North do play Tigers before their early bye. The other play would be to continue to monitor and pounce fresh off North’s bye in Round 12.
Backing it up…
Dayne Zorko, 592k, 117 AVG, 177 BE
Sam Flanders, 582k, 83 AVG, 171 BE
Tom Stewart, 484k, 76 AVG, 162 BE
Jack Sinclair, 642k, 126 AVG, 158 BE
Dan Houston, 563k, 105 AVG, 152 BE*
Midfielders
Nick Daicos (COL, $584.8k, (-$46.6k), 103.4 AVG, 121 BE) There’s really not much to say here. We all know the quality and upside of Nick, and after shattering a James Jordon tag fears of an underdone Nicky Daicos have been calmed. If I was looking for a midfield premium, I’d be very bullish on this pick, but with Lions at the Gabba this week followed by the Anzac Day clash next week (with potential attention), there’s also no harm in waiting a couple weeks to facilitate the trade.
Connor Rozee (PTA, $498.7k, (-$30.7k), 107 AVG, 85 BE) for those that were insistent Rozee wouldn’t be a mid keeper, I guess they were right, he’s clearly going to be D1 however. Who could’ve foreseen a move to halfback for the Port skipper? The positive news for owners and potential buyers is that Rozee posted his largest score for the season in the role with 137 points, Port looked strong in the contest without his presence and of course the Pear handled the Hawks and won their early season Grand Final 😉
Ken Hinkley had this to say about Rozee staying at HB: “It’s an option. We know he can play there. We know he can be damaging there. We lost a pretty handy player (Houston) in that position.” The breakeven isn’t so low that you can’t take another look, but for anyone shopping in the bargain bin, it wouldn’t be the worst move jumping on this week.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (NTH, $504.7k, (-$83.3k), 92.8 AVG, 97 BE) If it wasn’t for the torture of starting him in 2024, I’d have been quite keen on the 2024 Syd Barker Medal recipient as a POD to start this season. The CBA’s have been there, averaging 76% for the season, but North as a whole have continued with their struggles (albeit against good opposition to date). Hewett did hold LDU to x2 subtons last season, but there is a different mix of midfielders at North along with more surrounding support, evident by the 104 points LDU managed against the Swans and a James Jordon tag. There’s no doubt we’ll get some of those ceiling scores we’ve become accustomed to in previous seasons. LDU is personally someone I was eyeing fresh off his bye, but there’s definitely merit to the selection this week as well!
Limbo land…
Tom Liberatore, 590k, 120 AVG, 149 BE
Zak Butters, 649k, 121 AVG, 146 BE
Josh Dunkley, 580k, 119 AVG, 144 BE
Rucks
Max Gawn (MEL, 582k, (-$86.9k), 110.2 AVG, 81 BE) similar to Nick Daicos, there’s not much to say here. Gawn has held down our ruck position in SC for a long time, and will go down as one of the greatest ruck’s of the modern era (Cox v Gawn who would you take?). At a healthy discount, with what seems like every possible alternative having an asterisk, non-owners can once again bring Gawn into their sides with good faith, having looked much better the last two weeks and with immediate fixtures of Fremantle, Tigers and Eagles should result in some nice immediate scoring with a potential ceiling game.
Timberrr…
Rowan Marshall, 517k, 87 AVG, 196 BE
Tristan Xerri, 562k, 105 AVG, 159 BE
Forwards
Dylan Moore (HAW, $456.1k, (-$70.6k), 85.2 AVG, 87 BE) Christian Petracca was discussed last week, and even in a suboptimal Melbourne team, I still believe him to be a great selection this week. As for the 2024 All Australian, following the Easter Monday clash with the Cats, the Hawks have a three game stretch against the Eagles, Tigers, and Dees, in which I fully expect one of those 150+ ceiling games Moorey had in 2024 to surface. The co-vice-captain posted his first ton for the season against Port Adelaide, courtesy of a shift into the middle to help alleviate the loss of Conor Nash. With that came 22 touches, 10 contested, 9 tackles and 7 score involvements resulting in 101 points and a few SC’ers keen on Moore as a POD selection in their forward lines. With the loss of Will Day (I’m still not over it), I did expect a slight uptick in midfield time for Moore, and heading into half time the twenty five year old only had a total of 3 (which the biggest issue with running Moore in the middle comes from him not being forward of centre, the Hawks need two of him). For those not keen on the likes of Petracca, Nic Martin, the roller coaster that is Chad Warner or a key forward in the likes of Sam Darcy, there’s definitely a spicy option here to ponder, but I wouldn’t be expecting extended mid time as both Worpel and Nash have been cleared of injury, and as stated, Moore is just too important in the forward line.
Forward thinking…
Chad Warner, 499k, 90 AVG, 163 BE
Izak Rankine, 516k, 103 AVG, 136 BE
I see Isaac Heeney has dropped a fair bit from his starting price, down $87k to $541k. Breakeven of (I believe) 112 this week and averaging 99.6.
No terrible scores in there but also his 118 last week was the highest. Is there any good reason to not have him as a target next week?
I like the Heeney pick, was going to include him, but he has a BE of 112 and Port this week followed by GWS in a fortnight, which I’d be shocked if that didn’t entail a Bedford tag.
Definitely no major reservations, and someone I have been eyeing as a POD once he’s completely bottomed out.
What do you think of Jai Newcombe? With a break even of 134 this will be will be expected to drop about 15-20k and has a pretty easy run after that?
Definitely wait at least a week, he’s first tagged at stoppages now with Will Day injured, and would expect Atkins to go to him on Monday.
Yeah hopefully he goes down a little after this week but geez his doctor for the rest of the year apart from Brisbane is looking really good for him.
Haha ha….that feeling when you look at the list of fallen premiums and realise they’re all the premiums you started with…