Hi Everybody!
Here is the fourth batch of forwards. Standard re-reminding people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math.
TLA = True Level of Ability
Robbie Gray
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2007 | 5 | 66.4 | 18 | |
| 2008 | 10 | 62.1 | 19 | |
| 2009 | 20 | 84.7 | 20 | |
| 2010 | 11 | 75.8 | 21 | |
| 2011 | 22 | 90.4 | 22 | |
| 2012 | 2 | 70.5 | 23 | |
| 2013 | 18 | 82.1 | 24 | |
| 2014 | 22 | 111 | 25 | 110 |
| 2015 | 21 | 110.4 | 26 | 110 |
| 2016 | 19 | 108.1 | 27 | 105 |
| 2017 | 22 | 91.7 | 28 | 100 |
| 2018 | 21 | 96.8 | 29 | 95 |
| 2019 | 19 | 83.4 | 30 | 90 |
| 80-88 | 85 |
Age seems to be catching up with him. Without a lot of midfield time he probably won’t score well enough to be worth taking, even as a forward. He feels like just the sort of player that TLA tracking will help us with. I’m would not have predicted the 13 point drop in average last season, but I would have certainly noticed he had started to play Frogger, and been wary of that. Taking him at 31 is really trying to buck the odds.
Christian Petracca
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2016 | 17 | 72.7 | 20 | |
| 2017 | 22 | 78.8 | 21 | 78 |
| 2018 | 21 | 81.5 | 22 | 79 |
| 2019 | 22 | 81.3 | 23 | 80 |
| 78-85 | 81 |
At 24, there is reason to believe he has shown us who he is, and assume he will stay about the same. But, he has only played 82 matches, and If he starts off strong, for a clear explainable reason, then I’d think about bringing him in. We’ll know a lot more about him next season, one way or the other.
Kane Lambert
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2015 | 12 | 67.5 | 23 | |
| 2016 | 15 | 64.9 | 24 | |
| 2017 | 21 | 86 | 25 | 87 |
| 2018 | 20 | 88.8 | 26 | 88 |
| 2019 | 18 | 88 | 27 | 88 |
| 85-91 | 88 |
I think he is exactly what he appears to be. No real reason to have in him your side at full price.
Patrick Lipinski
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2017 | 1 | 53 | 18 | |
| 2018 | 17 | 59.4 | 19 | |
| 2019 | 13 | 81.3 | 20 | 81 |
| 79-87 | 84 |
So little evidence that he will break out, and yet I am tempted anyway! For him knowing the Dogs really like him is probably a much bigger part of that than his previous scores. Just 31 games, so tons of upside still. Has put up a few tons. High job security. Very, very speculative. He’d have to jump up 15ish points in average to be worth it. I feel bad for even suggesting him as a flyer.
Chad Wingard
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2012 | 19 | 51.7 | 18 | |
| 2013 | 22 | 98.6 | 19 | 90 |
| 2014 | 21 | 79.9 | 20 | 90 |
| 2015 | 22 | 97.8 | 21 | 90 |
| 2016 | 18 | 80.8 | 22 | 90 |
| 2017 | 18 | 93 | 23 | 90 |
| 2018 | 21 | 88.6 | 24 | 90 |
| 2019 | 14 | 75.9 | 25 | 90 |
| 80-95 | 90 |
Looking at his history in detail, I wonder what happened that his 98.6 average when just 19 turned into so little. Seeing him having a 97 and a 98 average in his past, a 97+ average at 26 is certainly viable. Another one I now am interested in. If he is healthy and playing midfield, he is at a big discount. His four previous seasons he has averaged at least 5 more than last season, which is his lowest since he was 18. Huh. His upside sure seems a lot bigger than his downside. Way more viable a pick than I had thought before looking at him to write this.
Brad Ebert
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2008 | 15 | 56.6 | 17 | |
| 2009 | 17 | 63.1 | 18 | |
| 2010 | 22 | 70.5 | 19 | |
| 2011 | 21 | 63.5 | 20 | |
| 2012 | 22 | 100 | 21 | |
| 2013 | 22 | 97.2 | 22 | 95 |
| 2014 | 22 | 94.3 | 23 | 95 |
| 2015 | 22 | 97 | 24 | 95 |
| 2016 | 21 | 80.3 | 25 | 95 |
| 2017 | 22 | 100.7 | 26 | 95 |
| 2018 | 22 | 86.9 | 27 | 93 |
| 2019 | 11 | 76.5 | 28 | 91 |
| 85-93 | 89 |
Just old enough I am nervous about a comeback happening. I worry his drop off is real and not just luck/more time forward. May not be, but may be. I would take Winguard over him because younger. We know what Ebart can do but he’s old enough that he may never do it again. Still 29 is not too old for a career season if he gets the right role. I think I should be grouping these guys by age in some way…..?
Josh Jenkins
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2012 | 11 | 67.9 | 22 | |
| 2013 | 17 | 68.9 | 23 | |
| 2014 | 20 | 69.2 | 24 | |
| 2015 | 19 | 70.3 | 25 | 75 |
| 2016 | 22 | 86 | 26 | 75 |
| 2017 | 18 | 79.2 | 27 | 75 |
| 2018 | 22 | 80.8 | 28 | 75 |
| 2019 | 11 | 68.4 | 29 | 75 |
| 71-79 | 75 |
At 30, after that big a drop, it would take a very brave person to have him in their side. I’d take a gamble on Lipinski of Jenkins.
Before I do the mids, any thoughts or feedback on all this? Love to hear what you think in the comments.
Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!
Thanks for reading!
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Looks like I am defying logic being on the Petracca train.
Although I do think he may spend more mid minutes. The only other factor is that he did average 87 after the byes last year, so hoping for him to get to low 90’s is not ridiculous. It’s whether that’s good enough to select him.
Decisions, decisions…..
The Petracca train is not a crazy train, just a brave train. Or you know something we don’t…?
Not really. It’s more of hunt for value. I am betting against Whitfield because of durability and maybe he over-achieved (or maxed in 2019), and I think D Martin has a clear downward trajectory with scoring, plus his age. I think Walters was a one off, and with his age, doesn’t seem a good bet. So Heeney is F1, and Petracca F2. Certainly doesn’t feel right, but follows my logic. Crazy, scary.
Low 90s puts him as a top 8 FWD based on last season but at $440k, he won’t hurt not having and will be a slow riser throughout the season so can be an upgrade target when required. If you think he can go 95-100 from Rd1 then he becomes a much better selection. Hoping for low 90, not so much.
I tend to agree. Just trying to find a better option.
Phil.
I really have to strongly disagree on Whitfield.
Have you actually watched him play ?
I live in Sydney and watch most of the Giants games. The guy covers the ground like know one else. He is also a very accurate kick which turns into a high DE.
He is only 25 years old and a former number one draft pick.
How can you think he may have topped out ?
I think he’s just getting started.
If he played for a big Melbourne club he would already be a huge superstar.
His only real knocks are..
Yes, he has proven to be injury prone and he does tend to get a lot of outside ball. I still think he is the only Forward capable of averaging 115+ No other Forward will come close to that.
He is a lock at F1 for me.
Thanks for the perspective. I live in Singapore so I don’t get to see as many games as I would like. I have also approached this season from a numbers perspective, rather than a football perspective – which is the opposite to what I have done in the past. Basically I haven’t got remotely close in previous seasons, so really trying to look at everything in an objective different way. So I have focused on age and reliability. Whitfield definitely hits age, but not reliability. I have been very influenced also by total points approach. If he’s only a 18 game proposition, then he’s probably only a 2200-2250 proposition. In which case, maybe a 22 game player at 95, with the dollars saved being effectively used is the right answer.
If you are right and he’s a genuine 115+ player, then I will need to look at him again, because that might make him a 2300 plus proposition, and could be worth paying overs.
I am totally torn between following the pure logical numbers based approach and interspersing it with a a football logic pick like Whitfield.
Enjoying the different perspectives on this. Thanks
Any thoughts on Brandon Parfitt ?
I reckon he has the odd huge game, but is used more as a nullifier nowadays when in the middle. Not great for SC. Look at all those MIDs in the $350-$470k bracket who’ve played a few years. That’s him I reckon. Could be wrong, but do remember reading something similar in the Geelong Team Preview.
I think Bonar could be the same, but at his price will be worth it.
100% Parfitt was not tagging but was definitely playing a defensive role at stoppages, big year for him though there’s a couple blokes who could just go straight past him in the Geelong squad, Narkle, Constable & maybe even Clark.
Hello Father, great articles & you ask for comments. I would like to suggest that you add another thread with a conclusion for selections/breakouts/risk/etc.
Hope that made sense.
These have been brilliant FD. I like Willy’s idea of a summary for each position. Maybe you could rank them by their age or TLAs or something which would be great to look at. That way they’d be ranked from very likely to don’t touch em with a barge pole.
Then SCTers can consider the critical ‘circumstance’ factor and make decisions from there?!
Keep em coming!! 😉
Just a heads up on Ebert, his scoring was night and day last year when comparing his pre-concussion scores and post-concussion.
5/6 scores 90+ pre concussion means the potential is there if he’s back to full health.
Lipinski has my attention…F3 poll.
TU: Lipinski
TD: Greenwood