Inspired by Jim’s spicy little masterpiece the other day (dead ass, loved it), I thought I’d drop a pre-season team reveal of my own ahead of launching our Team Previews.
Here it is:
Defenders
I was a major fan of the 500k trifecta of Sheezel, Ridley and Young but after having an akward 150k ITB I kicked Ridley up to the Sicily. Big on those three: Sicily the known quantity, Sheezel basically triple figures in his first year and NM Daicos and then Young we’re all on.
The rookie crop is actually really good with another 2-3 123kers that I don’t have above but will likely line up. A 2 premo DEF line could totally work but there just isn’t the need for that kind of structure in the meta right now.
Midfielders
Simple stuff here: 5x top shelf, plus Miller, McKercher and Sanders at M6-8. Applying a bang for buck analysis, I just refuse to pay in the mid 500s for a FWD that will be hard pressed to do 100 when I can kick up to a MID who can instead press 120 – more on that later. I’ve backed the Port boys Butters and Rozee on a bit of recency bias but mainly because I love their trajectory and early fixture, which includes Eagles first drop and the four out of their first five at the Adelaide Oval. Gulden was my first picked – after I captained him against my Eagles in 2023 I knew he was a lock the following year. The fact he romps out these ridiculous scores off a wing or an attacking position is what I love. Pure explosivity and effort. Serong is a bit of a bum, and so is Brayshaw, but going for one of them with Freo’s nice bye and overall strength as a side. Cap things off with Green, who I love. He was my other lock along with Gulden. Their early bye, yes, is heinous but truly back his output. Came back last year and baked, when many had traded and stopped paying attention to him. He’s gone 72.7, 79.0, 97.1 and 111.2 over his four seasons. Great trajectory and pushes the right side of 115 this year. Oh, and he opens the season against West Coast and North lmao.
Rucks
I was totally onboard the G&G Renaissance until the R0 shenanigans were announced. There was an argument that Tingles had Gawn all square either way but now with an extra game it’s not a question. You can’t really committ yourself to more than 5 R0 players and, for me, I’ve got a few ahead of Maxxy. Tingles will bake and I didn’t find the 110k difference to be too onerous. Grundy then an obvious R2 and have punted for Sweet at R3 after having the cash. We’ll see what happens at Alberton.
Forwards
I wish the team ended there. Forwards. What in the what. Disgrazia. Flanders I don’t love. Total purple patch last year with Miller out and then building back in. Hardwick midfield profiles also hardly conducive to SC. But with FWD status and the paltry other options, he’s in for now. Macrae, or any other premium, is then an obvious obscene but I’m just not down with that. There’s not a single FWD available for selection that averaged 100+ last year – why pay 500k. Macrae we know, we love, and I might end up with him, but 550k for a declining player in a sketchy side is just a no. Smith out does help bring him closer to the action at stoppage but, as I mentioned, I tack on 50k and *bang* he’s Rozze, *bang* he’s Serong, *an extra 20k* he’s Green. Come off it. Structurally I get but y’all are smoking rocks if you think it’s the Macrae of the past. I do like Bolton but the R0 bye kinda kills it.
So after skimping on premos, I’ve then filled out with Reid, Wilson (who looks to be the only starting fieldable FWD rookie we’ll get) and 3x midpricers. Harmes I’m solid on, Billings should get up and just coast on being in a good side and then Georgiades could alternatively be Tsatas, Hewett, Jordon, etc.
So that’s where I’m at. Plenty of maneuverability and chopping cash built into the side if I want some additional MP or premium depth. Main watch is there FWD landscape to see if I can get away with bumming it there.
Fire away!
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Nice GD. Only comment I’ll make is starting R0 players who also have the R12 bye means you’ll miss 2 full rounds of scoring before other players can pick them up post bye in R13. So Gulden for example, will he score enough to cover 2 games worth of points from someone else? I’m staying away from Swans, GWS & Lions players for that reason and picking them up mid-season, other than serious value (Grundy), or rookies.
i agree regarding not having too many R0 players, but Green & Grundy are exceptions.
Grundy is just too much value.
Green has WCE and North up first, and you can’t miss out on that.
I love Tom Green too, was in my first draft but not currently there. He scored 77 points (North) and 106 points (WCE) on those two last season. I know they are only two games and I don’t know the context for those scores, but he’d need to go really big in both to justify the pick.
From a pure maths point of view, a player averaging 100 but playing all 12 games would score 1200 points. Green, Gulden extra would need to average 120 to match those total points. If your alternative premium without the R0 & R12 bye averages 110 (1320 points over 12 rds), then R0 premiums need to average 132 to match.
I just don’t see how starting R0 premos with R12 bye in midfield or defense is viable, trading into them after their first bye maybe given the trades available. The value of Gawn/Grundy may make it worth it, especially as they’re both over 50% ownership and we’ve got less ruck options to reduce the risk, but even then English/Marshall can’t be ignored.
doing the maths, you have to factor in a rookie score the week they have their bye.
if a rookie scores 60pts (best 18 – so should get a decent rookie to score count).
If a premium without an early bye scores 100 each week for 11 weeks = 1100.
Green, Guelden etc will need to average 104 (104x 10 60 = 1100)
after week 11, everyone has a bye.
Green and Gulden non-negotiables for me. Will drop Flanders if necessary but think I can get away with 5x R0.
I’m a bit bemused by the R0 aversions….surely just pick the best team possible from those playing, and change it to your preferred team for R1, possibly loading up on teams that had the R0 bye. No trades lost, and best possible start for OA. R12-15 byes then are the same decision wise as everyone else, with rds 14/15 the difficult ones.
Or am I missing something ??
I’d argue this is a good thing Wighty, it means people may have different strategies for the season. Personally I don’t want R0/R12 bye players where possible because I want to maximise premo scores in the early rounds and rely less on rookies in the early byes. It’s incredibly hard to play catch-up in the second part of the season, so starting well is essential and I think avoiding R0/R12 bye premos will help with this.
I’m less worried about R0/R14-15 bye premos because I can trade in R12-13 bye players to help with a mostly premo best 18 for those rounds (team should be close to complete by then so less rookie scores to worry about, unlike for the early byes).
Other people are going the opposite and think Gulden, Green etc are must haves. We’ll find out during the season I guess! It’s what makes it fun.
I’m not too sure about miller this season under hardwick, might take a back step will all the young talent and hardwicks known sc ways to midfielders. Do you reckon he is still worth to pick up
Yeah, Evan. I feel you. It’s tough. It’s just 545k for someone who’s done 2 seasons of 120 recently. Best two way runner in the game.
For now, I’m there. Don’t think it’s an automatic *CLICK* back to a 120 average for the reasons we’ve mentioned but should be serviceable enough.
when prices first came out i saw Miller and Steele as being great value. but as my team has progressed, i can only go with one, and Steele’s price and early bye gets the nod for a nice M6 slot.
Great stuff mate! I’m torn myself over the early bye players. Will be an interesting few rounds to start the year! Having English over Gawn will help you in Melbs early bye
For what it’s worth, I think not starting macrae could hurt alot. IF he goes well your defiantly behind. If he struggles are you that much in front not having him?
If you think you will be in front it’s a good call, but any doubts, with a player of macraes calibre he should be started.
One of those I don’t want to pick him, but feel I should due to percent ownership.
EDIT, Recent news of Macraes soft tissue injury now puts me in your camp GD.
I love this team I am going similar in my fwdline but even cheaper
Your Round 7 ideal team prediction is amazing.
I see the R0 as a showcase for rookies and probable price improvements that would not be in your best 18, Grundy excepted.
Rearrange your team around what you have seen and start with your predictions including premiums.
Then get in the premiums from R0 after they have completed their early byes that stood out.
Then IMO you just need to sit back and wait for the injuries to occur.
Look at the way it’s going. You may have overspent in forward line. But who knows who to take there. Nice team like it . Good luck gd.
‘Flanders I don’t love. Total purple patch last year with Miller out’
I don’t understand this comment? Flanders was out of the side almost identical to the same time Miller was and hit form with both him and Miller in the team.
Flanders had a role change hence the uptake in scoring plus he’s said this season his role to end the season will continue.
His numbers pre afl are insane also.
Other than his early bye I cannot see a downside to picking him
Hopefully this helps you feel better about having him in your side