Lachy Whitfield and Dustin Martin currently stand out as the two most popular forward premiums, both hovering around 60% ownership. It’s fair to say that the vast majority of sides won’t have more than three rookies on field in the forward line…so who’s your current F3, and why?
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My current M3 is actually Stephen Hill…
As FD often says, the rookies decide the structure of your team, not the premos, and at the moment the forwards currently have the best rookies with the likes of Bergman, Cockatoo, Rankine, M. King, Weightman and more looking like they’ll be playing round 1.
I like your thinking Ben. It is simply a fallacy when people claim there are less FWD rookies each year than on other lines. For the last two years running, there have been as many or more decent cash-generating FWDs than ALL other lines combined!!
FACT!
At this point, I have no idea. I’ve got as far as Lachie at F1. Rankine probably at F8. And that is it!
If Cockatoo and S Hill get to Rd1 unscathed and named, they’ll be in. My list for the remaining 4 spots is very long indeed.
Some others I didn’t mention that could play round 1:
Liam Henry
Billy Fampton
Sam Flanders
Kysaiah Pickett
Mitch Georgiadies
Darcy Cameron
Ben Cavarra
Shane McAdam
Sam Sturt
Ned Cahill
Obviously not all of them are viable picks and some are more likely to play round 1 than others, but it just goes to show how viable the rookies are this year. And I didn’t even discuss any “Cow-like objects” like Bonar, Bewley or Jones.
All of this combined with the fact that the FWD premos are arguably the weakest on any line and I think only having 1 or 2 premos is perfectly valid at this stage.
Also
Hutchesson for GWS
Hosie for North
both mature age rookies.
I’ve got Ziebell but I actually have Hill in the backline because the forward rookies look very deep.
Taking more forward rookies than defender rookies.
I don’t have WHITFIELD as he has only played 20+ games twice in 7 seasons and only once in the last 4 years. My F3 is Hill and I totally agree with Ben, good forward rookies, better than the other lines.
Interesting… I had Whitfield pencilled in since last year but this has given me second thoughts.
Lock in Whitfield. Because when he produces a 130+ game you going be spewing you didn’t start him. I’m expecting to waste 2 trades on him for the year. Shouldn’t be a problem if you get your rookie structure correct at the start and keep trades low for the first 5 rounds.
Interesting stats, however thats the risk you take. Coming from experience, I am not willing to take the chance of not starting with Whitfield, considering the following;
a) I am going to miss out on those monster 150+ scores, which takes a serious dent on your chances if you are playing for overall
b) Well over half my competitors have him (currently selected by over 60%)
Just my opinion. Personally, whitfield is that good for mine, I would still seriously consider starting him if he was just mid status.
Goodluck.
Stephen Hill is F2 for me at the moment (Whitfield F1)! I’m 7 deep in midfield (Oliver M7). At most Hill will be F3 for me I think, depending on how many midfield rookies I have to have.
I think there will be so much more variation and unexpected top 8 forwards to go too deep in this line.
Andy Brayshaw for me at this stage pending pre season happenings. Still not sure whether to go Hill rook + rook or slot Devon Smith in there, and only considering that in the event of no Gawn and extra cash created by a cheaper R2. By the sound of the Dees spin doctors, big Max will be running next week and playing some sort of game in 3-4 weeks, so it’s more likely the former.
I think he’s still a no brainer.
Last year he scored 1780pts in 16 games.
Ranked 12th (only 18pts behind 9th) on total pts among this year’s forwards. Plus he’s another captaincy option.
I’m looking at it this way too, Alex.
If Whitfield has the same season, then he plays 16 games, and scores 1780 points.
You then use a rookie to cover the other six games. If we use Petruccelle as a recent example, with an average of 50, that’s 2080 total points between Whitfield and Petruccelle, which is still the second most overall for forwards.
If you can loophole Whitfield through the mids when he misses, then it should be easier to get 70-80 from a rookie.
From what you said, this means you are paying an extra 50k to get less total points than a cheaper forward. So not only do you get more points for selecting a cheaper option, you could use the 50k to improve your team elsewhere.
PS I think you were slightly generous with the points you expect from a mid rookie. I think you would be going really well to have that level of points sitting in your bench. Secondly, it means you would have to have a mid/forward sitting in the mids.
Hey Phil,
You make a valid point about the money. You’re paying top dollar for the second most points (of a forward; Walters is number one).
The example with Petruccelle is pretty accurate though, given that’s what he averaged last year. I think that 50 average is actually pretty conservative. An example using Drew/Setterfield/Miers, or Hore/Duursma/Clark (given Whitfield was a Def last year) works out much more favourably.
I believe the criticism was aimed at the idea of getting 70-80 from a mid rookie who would otherwised be benched. That’s definitely a bit generous to the rookies as there’s very few that score that well.
Its Walters for me (after Whit and Dusty). Break out year last year, now playing mainly mid, kicks goals, excellent efficiency, looks to be tag free with fyfe in the side, and now looks very durable both physically and mentally. Whitfield missing games is my main concern…I’m looking for premos that play 20+, and he hasn’t yet so some risk.
Rookie argument is fascinating. I agree that getting the right ones is so important amd there looks to be heaps available this year. But too many could mean chasing the pack from the start, and burning extra trades to get to full premo…balancing act.
Walters? He only averaged 100 due to match winning 40pt goals4-5 times last year. Has he got that in him again? Lol.
Last year Walters tonned up 12 times. Under 80 only 3 times.
Tof, isn’t that exactly what we want our small fwds to do….consistently also as Walters did ??? better still if they are playing as a mid. Kid81 sums it up well below.
Well yes, but I just remembered last season him kicking the clutch goal back to back or pretty near and doing it again also. Thought it was remarkable and worth a mention. Don’t disagree with the pick, just reminding people he did kick a few 40 point goals, because it was quite the effort.
Lock in Whitfield. Because when he produces a 130+ game you going be spewing you didn’t start him. I’m expecting to waste 2 trades on him for the year. Shouldn’t be a problem if you get your rookie structure correct at the start and keep trades low for the first 5 rounds.
Whitfield is a conundrum….great average, but its pts that win you overall and leagues..he only scored 1780 last year, but average was 111.
Ziebell…..
Heeny was a lock for me until he broke his thumb. His worst will likely be enough for top 8 fwd, his best will be t3 fwd. The thumb injury is scaring me but I don’t like any other option.
Jonathon Ceglar.
Big watch should McEvoy be stated as key Defender. Hawthorn have unloaded Pittonet and Ceglar showed in a couple of games early in 2019 when McEvoy went down in one game (26 possessions) and the following game when rucking with Pittonet ( 20 possessions) that he can push his SC scoring level into the 90’s.
Averaged 95 in his last 3 games when rucking solo with a high of 110. Has ruck/Forward status.
And this is exactly why Patton suddenly becomes a prospect too…also with dpp and can cover the Grawn bye. Hawks have great record with big man discards.
If you’re worried about Whitfield missing games, then I’m not sure Patton is the answer…
Expecting parish to make the step up this year. Looking bigger and fitter than ever, as a Don’s supporter I suspect he will run through the guts for the majority of the year.
I have Steven would like to take a punt on Greenwood but cash wise its tricky.
Personally I would prefer Brayshaw over both of Smith and Steven. Should play more mid this year
Steven atm him and Smith will be watching like a hawk over JLT games if they look dodgy i’ll look at Greenwood
Looking at Ceglar and Robbie Gray currently. Not sure I’ll start both Whitfield and Martin.
Darcy Parish
Toby Greene.
With Heeney’s broken thumb ruling him out of my starting side . I had to look at Toby.
Will he be back at high half forward ?
Will he be in the midfield rotation ?
Will he get rubbered out again?
He definitely has the talent to finish in the top few forwards this year.
I’ve played with a 4 Uber 4 rookie midfield structure with Whitfield F1, Dusty F2, Greene F3 and Tom Lynch / Stevens F4
This also allows S Hill to go back to D5
I quite like the look of this, as I get to start a M/F like Bonner or Cockatoo in the midfield.
Food for thought anyway.