Early in the season, it’s all about finding the right rookies. But around this time of year, the focus starts to shift, it’s no longer just about who to buy, it’s about when to sell.
The key concept is the relationship between break-even (BE) and average.
If a rookie’s BE is below their average, they are still generating cash. Once their BE moves above their average, they are approaching their peak price and become a natural sell.
However, it’s not always that simple. One strong score can reset a player’s cash generation, which is why you’ll sometimes see players move from a sell back to a hold.
The bigger challenge is timing.
We are getting very close to the part of the season where multiple rookies will peak at the same time, but you only have two trades per week. If you wait too long, you can end up stuck with several players ready to sell but not enough trades to move them.
That’s why sometimes you need to be proactive and sell a week early. You might miss a small amount of cash, but you free up money sooner, upgrade earlier, and avoid getting stuck with dead rookies.
That’s how full premium teams are built.
Players who have only played one game haven’t been included, we want at least two games to assess role, scoring and job security.
BUY
| Player | Pos | Price | Avg | BE | JS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Edwards | DEF/MID | $119,900 | 48 | -24 | Medium |
| Patrick Retschiko | MID | $119,900 | 78 | -84 | Medium |
| Liam Reidy | RUC/FWD | $119,900 | 70 | -67 | Fair |
| Flynn Perez | DEF | $150,700 | 59 | -22 | Fair |
| James Leake | DEF/FWD | $168,800 | 57 | -13 | Fair |
| Angus Anderson | MID | $179,000 | 72 | -30 | Medium |
| Luke Pedlar | FWD | $187,900 | 39 | -4 | Medium |
| Oscar Steene | RUC/FWD | $197,400 | 55 | -6 | Good |
| Archer Day-Wicks | MID/FWD | $226,500 | 56 | -7 | Medium |
Patrick Retschiko is the clear number one buy this week. A BE of -84 with strong scoring means he should generate significant cash over the next few weeks. He’s the type of rookie you don’t overthink, you just get him in.
Angus Anderson is still a good buy if you missed him last week, he is still cheap enough and continues to produce the scores needed to keep his price moving.
Charlie Edwards looks a good player, but does he get a decent number of games to make us some cash. he came into the team when dawson was out and has kept his place, good signs.
Liam Reidy got his second game due to injury and took it well, but there is still uncertainty around his role when Pittonet return. Teams are increasingly running two rucks, so there is definitely a path for him to stay in the side. Carlton did start the season with a two ruck set up, they could go back to that.
James Leake had job security issues last year, but looks like he may have done enough to hold his place for now. Forward rookies are hard to find.
Flynn Perez was unlucky to be omitted last week. With returning players and others performing, it may not be straightforward for him to get back in.
RISKY BUY
| Player | Pos | Price | Avg | BE | JS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Derksen | DEF | $99,100 | 47 | -34 | Low |
| Jack Dalton | MID | $113,500 | 37 | -5 | Low |
| Will Lewis | FWD | $115,900 | 32 | -10 | Low |
| Toby Murray | FWD | $119,900 | 26 | 20 | Low |
| Matthew Jefferson | FWD | $128,700 | 51 | -25 | Low |
| Louis Emmett | RUC | $144,100 | 46 | -14 | Low |
| Bailey Laurie | FWD | $145,300 | 43 | -11 | Low |
There are some players who are red-dots just waiting to happen. Low Job Security players are high-risk, but due to injury and some other good fortune they get to play enough games to make some good cash.
I wouldn’t be recomending any on the risky buy list.
HOLD
| Player | Pos | Price | Avg | BE | JS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malakai Champion | FWD | $119,900 | 32 | 9 | Low |
| Chayce Jones | MID/DEF | $151,000 | 47 | 34 | Low |
| Talor Byrne | MID/FWD | $151,400 | 36 | 29 | Medium |
| Xavier Taylor | DEF | $158,500 | 42 | 11 | Medium |
| Sullivan Robey | MID/FWD | $168,800 | 34 | 26 | Low |
| Lachy Dovaston | FWD | $169,300 | 40 | 20 | Medium |
| James Tunstill | MID | $178,100 | 45 | 24 | Fair |
| Josh Dolan | FWD | $180,900 | 54 | 18 | Low |
| Thomas Edwards | FWD | $181,800 | 51 | 16 | Fair |
| Oscar Adams | DEF | $182,100 | 37 | 35 | Low |
| Josh Lai | MID/DEF | $185,600 | 48 | 22 | Medium |
| Samson Ryan | RUC | $190,800 | 51 | 6 | Medium |
| Jhye Clark | MID/FWD | $193,700 | 46 | 11 | Medium |
| Max Heath | RUC/FWD | $197,000 | 51 | 16 | Low |
| Cooper Hynes | FWD | $202,400 | 43 | 24 | Medium |
| Ty Gallop | FWD/DEF | $207,200 | 44 | 12 | Medium |
| Leo Lombard | FWD | $210,100 | 49 | 32 | Medium |
| Mason Cox | RUC/FWD | $226,600 | 54 | 27 | Medium |
| Jack Carroll | MID | $253,300 | 59 | 13 | Medium |
| Milan Murdock | MID | $255,100 | 89 | 0 | Good |
| Michael Sellwood | DEF | $260,400 | 59 | 15 | Good |
| Mattaes Phillipou | MID/FWD | $271,600 | 59 | 24 | Good |
| Elijah Tsatas | MID | $272,300 | 81 | 1 | Medium |
| Malcolm Rosas | FWD | $279,900 | 59 | 24 | Medium |
| Caleb Windsor | DEF/MID | $285,500 | 63 | 12 | Good |
| Sam Grlj | MID | $306,700 | 68 | 43 | Good |
| Jagga Smith | MID | $302,000 | 75 | 47 | Good |
| Josh Lindsay | DEF | $306,500 | 77 | -24 | Good |
| Jai Serong | MID | $325,600 | 74 | 55 | Good |
| Brayden Cook | MID/FWD | $324,800 | 75 | 23 | Good |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RUC | $363,000 | 84 | 73 | Good |
Most of our rookies haven’t reached the obvious sell point yet, some were very close last week (looking at you Jai Serong) and they have another spike score to re-set their cash generation.
There will come a time when we have to say goodbye to these players, and depending on everyone’s upgrade plans is when they should be sold.
Keep a watch on their Break-even (BE) and compared to their average, usually a good indication
SELL
| Player | Pos | Price | Avg | BE | JS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Watkins | MID/FWD | $152,100 | 40 | 45 | Fair |
| Bo Allan | DEF/MID | $224,900 | 52 | 55 | Medium |
| Harry Dean | DEF | $234,100 | 49 | 53 | Medium |
| Deven Robertson | FWD/MID | $251,000 | 85 | 12 | — |
Jack Watkins has been given every chance, but he just hasn’t looked up to the level required. At this point, it’s about freeing up the spot.
Bo Allan is in a similar position. The role isn’t there, and without role, the scoring and cash generation won’t come.
Harry Dean is a very slow burn. While he may continue to creep up in price, the rate is too slow compared to better rookie options available.
Deven Robertson is the only forced trade due to injury.
What are your thoughts on Grjl and Jaques derek, looping in my defence at the moment
I sold Grij myself last week, but it got me up to Whitfield. So if selling him can get you a nice upgrade, i’d do it.
Jaques’s BE is high at 52, but after this week the 34 he scored against Geelong drops out, so if he can play and score decent 60-70 it will resent his BE to around 20.
Is McAndrew a sell?
i had left him off. just added him back.
i put him in the HOLD, but he is pretty much maxed out. I thought he was headed for $400k, but his last three scores have been 83, 79, 65. he las lost all his cash generation.
there is always a chance for another spike score and maybe against Port and then Richmond he might
Hi thanks for the write up! What do you consider the right or obvious time to sell? Am guessing there’s not a set amount but it varies per rookie?
I think I really need to bring in Whitfield or NAS this round and my remaining rookies in defence are Grlj, Lindsay, Jaques and Selwood. With Grlj and Lindsay both over 300k now it makes sense to replace them as it means less cash needed. However they probably have more to make as well….
Maybe Jaques is the best candidate to go?
I should add last week I “upgraded” Jai serong to jack Sinclair
So the rest of my DEF is Sinclair, Stewart, Worrell and J.Clark
I always like to drag every last cent out of my rookies, but i also hate trading into an obvious soon to be red-dot. So it is all about having good rookies to trade into, when they are valaible like Anderson last week and Retschiko this week, you just have to grab them.
Because we don’t have the sub-vests to deal with, it feels like this year making cash has been a bit easier, so trading out rookies with some cash to make isn’t a bad idea this year.
It all depends on the other half of the trade, who are you getting, especially who your upgrade is. last week i traded both Serong and Grij to get Anderson and Whitfield (left me $100 in the bank). I would have loved to hold both and it hurt to see Serong go big, but i’m happy with the upgrade.
Yeah fair enough! If I want to upgrade I think I’ll need to use a boost which is not ideal. Could just do a double downgrade and get rid of Jack Watkins maybe for Liam reedy if he’s named and then Jaques to retschko
I feel like I’ve progressed my thinking on rookies, after years of trade shortages, this year and am really looking at rookie trades as lock in events. Knowing I need to get to 14-14.5 million team value, each trade needs to average like 100-120k in value at least, more if I need spare trades for injuries. Every trade I make less than that needs to be made up elsewhere, so I don’t really trade failed rookies and I really aim for the 150k target to give myself breathing room and some spare trades. That’s why I’m not in a rush, for example, to trade Lombardo unless I need to, because that would feel like a loss I have to make up elsewhere.
Im starting to look at failed rookie trades as the rookie-equivalent of sideways trades. This has had the corollary of making me more patient with rookies that look failed initially, like Sellwood and pou, that later in the season actually might make me proper cash.
We’ll see how it goes but the trade cadence definitely feels better.
i like your thinking.
last year i was obsessed with getting ‘dead’ rookies off my bench, it helped get my team value to a nice level, but i ran out of trades in the final weeks.
it doesn’t seem like we have the ‘dead’ rookie problem as much this year, especially with the sub-vest gone.
saving trades is always important
Do we hold or sell Blamires?
I chose to hold swapping him for Jacques who I traded for Retschiko, he’s still got a low break even and can be used as a loop
with a BE of 28, indicates he still has some cash to make.
unless he isn’t selected again, i would be holding
Been a GREAT year for the rookies Derek!
Braden Cook & WC Duursma only ones I didn’t pick up- and timing been perfect for Farrow, Anderson & now Retchsko to turn over- as at this time of the year some weeks the cupboard is barren.
Grlj & McAndrew out this week for Retchsko & Jackson… hmm UPGRADE season alive and well!
And Darcy of Freo out for another 5 weeks!
rookies have been good this year. i did miss Cook, even though i wanted him in my starting team, i was about $1k short so i started Sharp instead. I did the Sharp to Cook trade in round 2.
its all about the ‘next’ batch of rookies, we need about 10 additional rookies after our initial starting ones to get the cash to full premium.
I’d love to go McAndrew to Reidy, but Pittonet may be back as soon as this week. Considering they dropped the two-ruck approach after Round 1, I’m iffier on Reidy’s job security than you Derek!
i agree. i did have to make a new category for reidy as ‘fair’ JS.
maybe Carlton will look at what Collingwood and Hawthorn are doing, they didn’t start the season with two rucks but look set with their approach.
Carlton might change, if Pitto and reidy are both named this week, i might have to re-think my trades.
Who to trade out from Jagga, Farrow or Grjl?
Jagga
I’m trading Jagga this week to bring in Retschiko, mainly because he is a MID only. i wanted to keep my MIF/DEF swing open.