Scoring Anomalies – Round 11

As promised last week, I’ve been thinking a bit about about Champion Data’s weighting of different periods of matches, and how I can start trying to reverse-engineer how that works.

For those who have no idea what I’m talking about when I say “weighting”, I’d recommend checking out the edition of this column from two weeks ago, where I summarized everything I knew (or thought I knew) at the time about how the scaling works.

One thing that occurred to me is that for most games, it’s probably easy enough to get a reasonable idea of how they’re weighted by just eyeballing the score worm. Take the Port Adelaide vs Fremantle game, for example:

That looks like a game that was more or less won in the first quarter, so you can expect the first quarter to be weighted more highly, with the remaining three given a somewhat lower weighting.

I’d wager the St Kilda vs North Melbourne game was similar…

with the Roos’ late mini-comeback too little, too late to really move the game, or the weighting of the scores.

But what about a very late comeback that gets fairly close? For example:

Without the last 10 minutes or so of the above game, it looks pretty obvious how it would be weighted. Suddenly, though, with a late comeback that got close – albeit not close enough – that’s far less obvious.

Something similar could be said of the Richmond vs Adelaide worm:

Without that mini-comeback in the middle of the last quarter, you could comfortably assume that the last quarter would be weighted well down. With it, though? I’m not so sure. It didn’t amount to much – the Tigers still won comfortably in the end – but getting within 10 points or so halfway through the last quarter isn’t nothing. Was it enough to mean the game was suddenly “on the line”?

Most games, though, are a bit more straightforward:

If we were splitting the game up into half-quarters, for example, I’d weight the first 6 as neutral, the 7th more highly (it’s when the game was won), and the last a little lower.

Now, I’m fairly certain that Champion Data doesn’t just eyeball their weightings. Those will almost certainly be done automatically, with the help of maths. Right now, we still have more questions than answers as to how exactly that is done. But if I can test a few different weightings on the real data, and see which ones end up being more or less wrong, I can get a bit closer to answering those questions. That can be next week’s job.

In the meantime, you can look up any player you like in the table below to see how their score was affected by scaling on the weekend; for an in-depth breakdown of their scoring, see the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.

 

Name	Club	Raw	Linear-Scaled	Actual	Diff
Callum Coleman-Jones	RICH	119.5	95	112	17
Chris Burgess	GCFC	50.5	39	40	1
John Noble	COLL	87	70	73	3
Liam Baker	RICH	92	73	74	1
Lachie Schultz	FRE	76	59	51	-8
Mitch Lewis	HAW	67.5	52	49	-3
Tom Doedee	ADEL	111.5	89	88	-1
Jack Henry	GEEL	91.5	74	70	-4
Harry McKay	CARL	91.5	76	79	3
James Cousins	HAW	102	79	71	-8
Harry Morrison	HAW	0	0	0	0
Willem Drew	PORT	65.5	51	55	4
Hugh McCluggage	BL	87	68	74	6
Daniel Rioli	RICH	0	0	0	0
Nick Larkey	NMFC	90	75	81	6
Ned Reeves	HAW	120	93	90	-3
Jordan Ridley	ESS	84.5	68	64	-4
Jack Silvagni	CARL	82.5	68	64	-4
Izak Rankine	GCFC	130	101	102	1
Connor Rozee	PORT	61.5	47	39	-8
Isaac Cumming	GWS	154	121	117	-4
Bayley Fritsch	MELB	99	79	89	10
Ben McKay	NMFC	58	48	44	-4
Esava Ratugolea	GEEL	49	40	41	1
James Worpel	HAW	113	87	75	-12
Jack Higgins	STK	61.5	51	68	17
Lachie Fogarty	CARL	63.5	53	54	1
Andrew Brayshaw	FRE	104	80	81	1
Adam Cerra	FRE	105.5	81	83	2
Noah Balta	RICH	127	101	90	-11
Kane Farrell	PORT	84	65	68	3
Oscar Clavarino	STK	45.5	38	37	-1
Luke Davies-Uniacke	NMFC	110.5	92	80	-12
Charlie Spargo	MELB	67.5	54	55	1
Jarrod Brander	WCE	57.5	46	38	-8
Zac Bailey	BL	92	72	69	-3
Mitch Crowden	FRE	81	63	55	-8
Brandon Starcevich	BL	92	72	75	3
Aaron Naughton	WB	88.5	71	76	5
Callum L. Brown	COLL	54	44	39	-5
Brayden Sier	COLL	96	77	70	-7
Patrick Lipinski	WB	110	88	89	1
Hayden McLean	SYD	43.5	36	36	0
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher	ESS	41.5	33	32	-1
Jack Lukosius	GCFC	141.5	110	128	18
Liam Ryan	WCE	43.5	35	32	-3
Oscar Allen	WCE	45.5	37	34	-3
Tobe Watson	FRE	62.5	48	49	1
Tim English	WB	128.5	103	100	-3
Dylan Stephens	SYD	37	31	29	-2
Zach Guthrie	GEEL	34	27	28	1
Lachie Young	NMFC	54	45	41	-4
Tom De Koning	CARL	67.5	56	58	2
Jordon Butts	ADEL	44.5	35	39	4
Todd Marshall	PORT	81.5	63	62	-1
Josh Daicos	COLL	57.5	46	45	-1
Nathan Murphy	COLL	57.5	46	48	2
Oscar McInerney	BL	138.5	109	99	-10
Josh Corbett	GCFC	0	0	0	0
Nick Coffield	STK	79	66	57	-9
Tarryn Thomas	NMFC	128.5	107	94	-13
Malcolm Rosas	GCFC	57	44	48	4
Liam Henry	FRE	52	40	42	2
Jacob Koschitzke	HAW	36.5	28	29	1
Bailey Scott	NMFC	68	57	52	-5
Keidean Coleman	BL	83.5	65	73	8
Sam Walsh	CARL	117	97	90	-7
Thomas Berry	BL	0	0	0	0
Bailey J. Williams	WCE	54	44	45	1
James Rowbottom	SYD	101	84	80	-4
Bailey Smith	WB	107.5	86	84	-2
Xavier O'Halloran	GWS	54.5	43	40	-3
Lachlan Sholl	ADEL	63.5	50	54	4
Curtis Taylor	NMFC	72	60	49	-11
Max King	STK	43	36	34	-2
Ben King	GCFC	126	98	117	19
Bobby Hill	GWS	68.5	54	59	5
Jordan Clark	GEEL	0	0	0	0
Damon Greaves	HAW	45.5	35	34	-1
Chayce Jones	ADEL	41	33	34	1
Sam Wicks	SYD	73.5	61	63	2
Dylan Moore	HAW	131	101	107	6
Riley Garcia	WB	7.5	6	7	1
Jack Petruccelle	WCE	70.5	57	58	1
Wil Powell	GCFC	98	76	74	-2
Connor Idun	GWS	74	58	68	10
Isaac Quaynor	COLL	115	93	91	-2
Jake Riccardi	GWS	43	34	38	4
Matthew Cottrell	CARL	38	31	31	0
Will Hamill	ADEL	13	10	7	-3
Ned McHenry	ADEL	89	71	64	-7
Brayden Ham	ESS	0	0	0	0
Tom McCartin	SYD	66	55	52	-3
Nick Murray	ADEL	54	43	48	5
Riley Collier-Dawkins	RICH	77	61	56	-5
Liam Stocker	CARL	60.5	50	50	0
Riley Thilthorpe	ADEL	77.5	62	62	0
Josh Morris	HAW	31	24	21	-3
Kysaiah Pickett	MELB	56	45	53	8
Harry Schoenberg	ADEL	77	61	56	-5
Charlie Ballard	GCFC	74.5	58	53	-5
Harrison Petty	MELB	82	66	68	2
Lachlan McNeil	WB	46.5	37	31	-6
Trent Bianco	COLL	94.5	76	83	7
Jack Mahony	NMFC	66	55	58	3
Miles Bergman	PORT	22.5	17	14	-3
Noah Anderson	GCFC	95.5	74	79	5
Lachie Ash	GWS	135	106	99	-7
Sam Flanders	GCFC	102.5	79	76	-3
Trent Rivers	MELB	86	69	72	3
Deven Robertson	BL	106	83	85	2
Jaxon Prior	BL	80.5	63	59	-4
Luke Jackson	MELB	44.5	36	36	0
Caleb Serong	FRE	82.5	64	59	-5
Tom Green	GWS	78	61	60	-1
Jack Buckley	GWS	93.5	73	73	0
Mitch Georgiades	PORT	51.5	40	48	8
Jack Madgen	COLL	34	27	22	-5
Lachie Jones	PORT	117.5	91	80	-11
Caleb Poulter	COLL	78.5	63	66	3
Tom Powell	NMFC	65	54	51	-3
Harrison Jones	ESS	82	66	78	12
Cody Weightman	WB	60.5	48	53	5
Justin McInerney	SYD	91	75	74	-1
Hugo Ralphsmith	RICH	57	45	42	-3
Louis Butler	WB	48	38	30	-8
Ryan Byrnes	STK	93.5	78	73	-5
Chad Warner	SYD	67	55	63	8
Sam Berry	ADEL	49	39	42	3
Josh Treacy	FRE	53	41	40	-1
Finlay Macrae	COLL	8	6	6	0
Charlie Lazzaro	NMFC	0	0	0	0
James Jordon	MELB	103.5	83	85	2
Matthew Owies	CARL	58.5	48	45	-3
James Madden	BL	85	67	68	1
Callum M. Brown	GWS	0	0	0	0
Nik Cox	ESS	55	44	40	-4
Archie Perkins	ESS	75	60	65	5
Max Holmes	GEEL	75	60	60	0
Shaun Burgoyne	HAW	63.5	49	52	3
David Mundy	FRE	108.5	84	81	-3
Eddie Betts	CARL	70.5	58	62	4
Shannon Hurn	WCE	124	100	105	5
Grant Birchall	BL	65	51	46	-5
Lance Franklin	SYD	93.5	77	90	13
Josh J. Kennedy	WCE	83	67	68	1
Marc Murphy	CARL	15.5	13	11	-2
Paddy Ryder	STK	121.5	101	95	-6
Bachar Houli	RICH	105	83	80	-3
Joel Selwood	GEEL	147	119	103	-16
David Mackay	ADEL	72.5	58	56	-2
Travis Boak	PORT	134	103	97	-6
Jack Riewoldt	RICH	141.5	112	140	28
Jarryn Geary	STK	79.5	66	63	-3
Shaun Higgins	GEEL	97	78	73	-5
Scott Pendlebury	COLL	64	52	50	-2
Josh P. Kennedy	SYD	160.5	133	131	-2
Dayne Zorko	BL	193	151	162	11
Ben McEvoy	HAW	152	118	102	-16
Sam J. Reid	GWS	44.5	35	37	2
Robbie Gray	PORT	118.5	91	104	13
Tom Hawkins	GEEL	143	115	126	11
Ed Curnow	CARL	72.5	60	59	-1
Lachie Henderson	GEEL	72	58	69	11
Cale Hooker	ESS	105.5	85	96	11
Trent Cotchin	RICH	149	118	113	-5
David Zaharakis	ESS	69	56	50	-6
Rory Sloane	ADEL	143	114	103	-11
Nic Naitanui	WCE	196	158	163	5
Daniel Rich	BL	118	93	89	-4
Todd Goldstein	NMFC	132	110	93	-17
Jordan Roughead	COLL	96	77	83	6
Callan Ward	GWS	165	129	125	-4
Rhys Stanley	GEEL	124.5	100	101	1
Chris Mayne	COLL	169	136	142	6
Taylor Walker	ADEL	115	91	97	6
Charlie Dixon	PORT	156	120	138	18
Zac Smith	GCFC	85	66	68	2
Liam Shiels	HAW	126	98	90	-8
Luke Breust	HAW	59.5	46	41	-5
Shane Mumford	GWS	88.5	69	66	-3
Dylan Grimes	RICH	104.5	83	83	0
Jake Melksham	MELB	63.5	51	60	9
Ben Cunnington	NMFC	128.5	107	113	6
Jack Ziebell	NMFC	119	99	104	5
Steele Sidebottom	COLL	128	103	94	-9
Travis Colyer	FRE	53.5	41	46	5
Steven Motlop	PORT	91.5	71	63	-8
Michael Walters	FRE	72.5	56	55	-1
Liam Jones	CARL	54	45	51	6
Brad Sheppard	WCE	89.5	72	73	1
Steven May	MELB	112.5	90	90	0
Hugh Greenwood	GCFC	97.5	75	69	-6
Levi Casboult	CARL	43.5	36	38	2
Jack Redden	WCE	105	85	88	3
Taylor Duryea	WB	74	59	47	-12
Michael Hibberd	MELB	51.5	41	45	4
Tom Campbell	NMFC	54.5	45	41	-4
Dane Rampe	SYD	74.5	62	58	-4
Mitch Robinson	BL	172.5	135	140	5
Trent McKenzie	PORT	136.5	105	103	-2
Max Gawn	MELB	165	132	120	-12
Josh Caddy	RICH	127.5	101	103	2
Dion Prestia	RICH	110	87	89	2
Dyson Heppell	ESS	154.5	125	134	9
Daniel Lloyd	GWS	61	48	47	-1
Jimmy Webster	STK	68.5	57	58	1
Luke Parker	SYD	147.5	122	112	-10
Shaun Atley	NMFC	75.5	63	68	5
Alex Keath	WB	55.5	44	39	-5
Tom Liberatore	WB	101.5	81	78	-3
Andrew Gaff	WCE	103.5	83	78	-5
Jamie Cripps	WCE	82.5	66	57	-9
David Swallow	GCFC	140	108	100	-8
Jack Darling	WCE	33.5	27	24	-3
Dustin Martin	RICH	129	103	95	-8
Gary Rohan	GEEL	76	61	53	-8
Josh Bruce	WB	48	38	37	-1
Luke Dahlhaus	GEEL	51	41	42	1
Tom McDonald	MELB	90	72	90	18
Josh Walker	NMFC	73.5	61	55	-6
Nat Fyfe	FRE	124.5	96	99	3
Will Hoskin-Elliott	COLL	57.5	46	45	-1
Brodie Smith	ADEL	62.5	50	56	6
Matt Buntine	GWS	27.5	22	20	-2
Tom Stewart	GEEL	141	114	119	5
Brody Mihocek	COLL	60	48	48	0
Tom Mitchell	HAW	110	85	88	3
Brendon Ah Chee	WCE	56.5	46	42	-4
Chad Wingard	HAW	120	93	93	0
Harry Cunningham	SYD	158.5	131	124	-7
Elliot Yeo	WCE	75.5	61	49	-12
Tom Jonas	PORT	114.5	88	89	1
Zach Tuohy	GEEL	152.5	123	126	3
Luke Brown	ADEL	48.5	39	37	-2
Rory Laird	ADEL	128	102	92	-10
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	96	75	79	4
Hayden Crozier	WB	151	121	118	-3
Brandon Ellis	GCFC	181	140	137	-3
Jarryd Lyons	BL	100	78	82	4
Sam Frost	HAW	87	67	70	3
Jeremy Cameron	GEEL	89	72	74	2
Sebastian Ross	STK	74.5	62	72	10
Jack Crisp	COLL	134.5	108	106	-2
Jed Bews	GEEL	54.5	44	46	2
Jake Stringer	ESS	82	66	94	28
Brodie Grundy	COLL	96	77	76	-1
Sean Lemmens	GCFC	70	54	49	-5
George Hewett	SYD	71.5	59	61	2
Andrew Phillips	ESS	107	86	78	-8
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	99.5	80	93	13
Jason Johannisen	WB	59	47	50	3
Nathan Wilson	FRE	53	41	43	2
Marcus Adams	BL	94	74	77	3
Sam Menegola	GEEL	87.5	71	76	5
Lachie Whitfield	GWS	155.5	122	120	-2
Brad Crouch	STK	161	134	126	-8
Ollie Wines	PORT	193.5	149	134	-15
Luke Dunstan	STK	160	133	131	-2
Aliir Aliir	PORT	94	73	67	-6
Rory Atkins	GCFC	79	61	61	0
Joe Daniher	BL	58.5	46	48	2
Lachie Hunter	WB	148.5	119	126	7
Kamdyn McIntosh	RICH	97	77	67	-10
Tim Membrey	STK	140	116	132	16
Alex Sexton	GCFC	120.5	93	96	3
James Stewart	ESS	59	48	51	3
Nick Vlastuin	RICH	117.5	93	88	-5
Zac Williams	CARL	98.5	82	80	-2
Paul Seedsman	ADEL	73.5	58	57	-1
Callum Sinclair	SYD	111.5	92	86	-6
Isaac Smith	GEEL	86	69	88	19
James Aish	FRE	113	87	100	13
Caleb Daniel	WB	98.5	79	61	-18
Kaiden Brand	SYD	81.5	67	65	-2
Nathan Broad	RICH	132	105	101	-4
Nick Haynes	GWS	83	65	51	-14
Mason Wood	STK	117.5	98	113	15
Jake Lloyd	SYD	154.5	128	142	14
Sam Collins	GCFC	78	60	67	7
Adam Saad	CARL	100	83	76	-7
Jack Macrae	WB	181	145	145	0
Sam Docherty	CARL	99.5	82	67	-15
Bradley Hill	STK	38.5	32	41	9
Tim Kelly	WCE	40	32	26	-6
Trent Dumont	NMFC	71	59	59	0
Tim O'Brien	HAW	67.5	52	53	1
Taylor Garner	NMFC	92	77	56	-21
Jack Martin	CARL	71	59	60	1
Michael Gibbons	CARL	49.5	41	44	3
Jack Steele	STK	177.5	148	154	6
Lewis Taylor	SYD	0	0	0	0
Jarman Impey	HAW	83	64	62	-2
Jake Kolodjashnij	GEEL	89	72	72	0
Blake Acres	FRE	64	49	46	-3
Dom Sheed	WCE	146	118	107	-11
Orazio Fantasia	PORT	86	66	66	0
Josh Kelly	GWS	151	118	122	4
Jack Billings	STK	113.5	94	110	16
Christian Salem	MELB	69.5	56	56	0
Alex Neal-Bullen	MELB	87	70	74	4
Callum Wilkie	STK	111.5	93	87	-6
Aaron Hall	NMFC	150	125	121	-4
Karl Amon	PORT	114	88	93	5
Marcus Bontempelli	WB	159	127	125	-2
Nick Hind	ESS	108.5	87	90	3
Nick Holman	GCFC	74.5	58	61	3
Jake Kelly	ADEL	41	33	32	-1
Daniel McStay	BL	66.5	52	66	14
Reilly O'Brien	ADEL	184.5	147	147	0
James Harmes	MELB	138	111	116	5
Nic Newman	CARL	96	79	80	1
Jeremy Finlayson	GWS	63.5	50	51	1
Toby Nankervis	RICH	112	89	77	-12
Christian Petracca	MELB	137	110	105	-5
Ed Langdon	MELB	43.5	35	37	2
Touk Miller	GCFC	198.5	154	153	-1
Angus Brayshaw	MELB	96.5	77	73	-4
Jayden Laverde	ESS	119.5	96	104	8
Jake Lever	MELB	122.5	98	103	5
Darcy Moore	COLL	126	102	103	1
Marc Pittonet	CARL	58.5	48	52	4
Jackson Nelson	WCE	102.5	83	80	-3
Oleg Markov	GCFC	130	101	103	2
Brandan Parfitt	GEEL	151	122	126	4
Callum Ah Chee	BL	74.5	58	55	-3
Alec Waterman	ESS	78	63	54	-9
Connor Blakely	FRE	36	28	26	-2
Shane McAdam	ADEL	21	17	16	-1
Lachie Weller	GCFC	94	73	72	-1
Isaac Heeney	SYD	143.5	119	128	9
Kyle Langford	ESS	164	132	125	-7
Tom Barrass	WCE	90	73	75	2
Darcy Cameron	COLL	142	115	107	-8
Will Snelling	ESS	53	43	53	10
Charlie Cameron	BL	98.5	77	97	20
Patrick Cripps	CARL	168.5	139	133	-6
Rory Lobb	FRE	55.5	43	51	8
Jack Graham	RICH	127	101	103	2
Darcy Byrne-Jones	PORT	104.5	81	90	9
Jason Castagna	RICH	63	50	55	5
Zaine Cordy	WB	98.5	79	81	2
Jack Lonie	STK	0	0	0	0
Brayden Maynard	COLL	109	88	79	-9
Connor Menadue	NMFC	63	52	52	0
Zach Merrett	ESS	151	122	119	-3
Jayden Short	RICH	130	103	106	3
Roarke Smith	WB	110	88	91	3
Sam Switkowski	FRE	38	29	35	6
Ryan Burton	PORT	65.5	51	54	3
Jordan Dawson	SYD	112	93	96	3
Jordon Sweet	WB	48	38	39	1
Bailey Williams	WB	81	65	57	-8
Dan Butler	STK	76	63	79	16
Daniel Howe	HAW	121	94	98	4
Kayne Turner	NMFC	51.5	43	42	-1
Jake Aarts	RICH	90	72	79	7
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	83.5	65	67	2
Dougal Howard	STK	66.5	55	57	2
Blake Hardwick	HAW	89.5	69	74	5
Tom Wilson	COLL	46	37	38	1
Sam Weideman	MELB	38	30	34	4
Darcy Tucker	FRE	95.5	74	64	-10
Darcy Parish	ESS	193	156	136	-20
Tom Cole	WCE	78.5	63	62	-1
Rhys Mathieson	BL	102.5	80	77	-3
Jacob Weitering	CARL	90	74	78	4
Matt Flynn	GWS	76.5	60	51	-9
Jacob Hopper	GWS	142	111	100	-11
Callum Mills	SYD	149	123	117	-6
Ben Keays	ADEL	122	97	83	-14
Eric Hipwood	BL	89.5	70	71	1
Sam Powell-Pepper	PORT	149.5	115	130	15
Shai Bolton	RICH	119	95	102	7
Jy Simpkin	NMFC	119	99	108	9
Mabior Chol	RICH	79	63	65	2
Jordan De Goey	COLL	117.5	95	88	-7
Dan Houston	PORT	128	99	97	-2
Jayden Hunt	MELB	49	39	36	-3
Tom Atkins	GEEL	84	68	66	-2
Jack Sinclair	STK	106.5	89	75	-14
Riley Bonner	PORT	86.5	67	61	-6
Harris Andrews	BL	108.5	85	79	-6
Matt Guelfi	ESS	77	62	54	-8
Tom Phillips	HAW	92	71	72	1
Jake Waterman	WCE	85.5	69	75	6
Clayton Oliver	MELB	171.5	137	139	2
Bailey Dale	WB	137	110	102	-8
Tom Papley	SYD	114	94	102	8
Brennan Cox	FRE	105.5	81	79	-2
Mason Redman	ESS	102	82	84	2
Will Hayward	SYD	90.5	75	80	5
Peter Ladhams	PORT	178	137	130	-7
Josh Rotham	WCE	129	104	107	3
Andrew McGrath	ESS	99	80	84	4
Oliver Florent	SYD	88.5	73	79	6
Jack Scrimshaw	HAW	110.5	86	91	5
Taylin Duman	FRE	71	55	48	-7
Josh Battle	STK	70	58	68	10
Sean Darcy	FRE	118	91	83	-8
Tim Taranto	GWS	124.5	98	87	-11
Tom Highmore	STK	55	46	36	-10
Will Setterfield	CARL	91.5	76	72	-4
Zach Sproule	GWS	40.5	32	32	0
Changkuoth Jiath	HAW	98	76	66	-10
Cameron Zurhaar	NMFC	66.5	55	70	15
Luke Ryan	FRE	116	90	100	10
Jamaine Jones	WCE	43.5	35	35	0
James Rowe	ADEL	63	50	54	4
Brad Close	GEEL	68.5	55	57	2
Darcy Fogarty	ADEL	53	42	53	11
Tom Sparrow	MELB	0	0	0	0
Jy Farrar	GCFC	13.5	10	14	4
Quinton Narkle	GEEL	100.5	81	82	1

 

LEGEND:

Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.

 

Download the full breakdowns:

Round 11 Summary (General Categories)

Round 11 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

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