Scoring Anomalies – Round 12

Last week, I said the task for this week was to try and weight some real scores, using the ‘who did what when’ data I now have access to. That data is laid out a bit differently to the usual, non-time-series data I feed into SyntheticCoach, so there are a couple of things I need to rejig before I can get that to automatically produce raw scores based on that data, but I can still put scores together manually and go from there. It’s a little tedious, but perfectly doable.

I’ve picked out Fremantle’s Luke Ryan and Andrew Brayshaw, at the top second-bottom of the above Scaling Anomalies chart respectively, since that gives me a useful starting point: one got weighted up, and the other down, so if I can find a set of weightings that works for both, I’ll (hopefully) be on to something.

Here’s how the game went:

The first task here is to divide the game up into chunks, so that each can be given a particular weight. The two obvious ways to do this would seem to be quarter-by-quarter, or everytime the score changes. The former is less work, so I’ll start there and see how things go.

The task is to find weightings for each quarter such that, when the weighted raw scores for the game are scaled to 3300 points, Brayshaw is at 120 points, and Ryan is at 133. There are some very slight differences in the raw scores produced by the two different sets of data – the usual data gave Brayshaw and Ryan 163 and 133 respectively, while the time-series data has them at 165 and 134.5. This is because the two data sets label some things quite differently, so I clearly have a little bit of work to do to get them to have equal definitions of things. But it’s close enough for the time being.

Once the raw scores are weighted, they will be multiplied by the game’s multiplier (3300 / total raw points) to get the scores for the match to sum to 3300. SyntheticCoach has the multiplier for this game at around 0.84, but the real number is probably slightly different, as it will be based on 3300 divided by total weighted raw points, but it shouldn’t be that far off. In any case, you would need all the weighted scores for the match to calculate what that multiplier should be, so we’ll stick with 0.84 as being a reasonable approximation for now.

This means we need to find weightings that get Brayshaw and Ryan’s weighted raw scores to around 143 and 158, respectively.

The Bulldogs kicked away in the last quarter, so the logical place to start is by weighting that quarter down. Giving it a weighting of 0.66 gets Brayshaw’s score right to where it needs to be (he was prominent in the last quarter), but it doesn’t do anything to get Ryan’s raw score up where it should be:

Q1: 1, Q2: 1, Q3: 1, Q4: 0.66 – Brayshaw 144 (almost spot-on), Ryan 126 (way too low).

Adjusting all three of the other quarters up is clearly not right:

Q1: 1.25, Q2: 1.25, Q3: 1.25, Q4: 0.66 – Brayshaw 169.5, Ryan 153

Weighting Quarters 2 and 3 up and leaving the first down is a bit better, but still not right:

Q1: 1, Q2: 1.25, Q3: 1.25, Q4: 0.5 – Brayshaw 148, Ryan 143

It might be time at this point to take a look at when each player was most prominent. For Ryan, that was the second quarter. Since he got weighted up significantly, that suggests that the second quarter was weighted highly:

Q1: 1, Q2: 1.5, Q3: 1, Q4: 0.5 – Brayshaw 144.5, Ryan 149

That’s getting us in the right direction, but it’s still not enough. Pushing the weighting for the second quarter even higher gets us closer still:

Q1: 1, Q2: 1.75, Q3 1, Q4: 0.5 – Brayshaw 150, Ryan 163

But it’s not until we weight the third quarter down slightly, and the fourth a little further down, that things start to really take shape:

Q1: 1, Q2: 1.75, Q3: 0.9, Q4: 0.4 – Brayshaw 140, Ryan 157

That gets the numbers very close to working, at least for these two samples I’ve picked out, but weighting the second quarter highly but not the third? Looking at the worm above, I’m not sure I buy that. It’s as close to the truth as I’ve been able to get this week, but I’m not convinced we’re quite there yet.

But there’s always next week. In the meantime, you can look up any player you like in the table below to see how their score was affected by scaling on the weekend; for an in-depth breakdown of their scoring, see the spreadsheets attached at the bottom of this post.

 

Name	Club	Raw	Linear-Scaled	Actual	Diff
Callum Coleman-Jones	RICH	96.5	76	86	10
John Noble	COLL	72.5	59	63	4
Liam Baker	RICH	95.5	75	92	17
Lachie Schultz	FRE	45	38	42	4
Tom Doedee	ADEL	96.5	78	76	-2
Harry McKay	CARL	4	3	5	2
Max Lynch	COLL	72	58	46	-12
Hugh McCluggage	BL	108.5	91	87	-4
Daniel Rioli	RICH	12.5	10	5	-5
Jordan Ridley	ESS	102	80	80	0
Jack Silvagni	CARL	74	60	71	11
Bayley Fritsch	MELB	61	51	59	8
Mitch Hannan	WB	83.5	70	63	-7
Jack Higgins	STK	135	107	112	5
Andrew Brayshaw	FRE	163	137	120	-17
Adam Cerra	FRE	89.5	75	67	-8
Noah Balta	RICH	104.5	82	74	-8
Paddy Dow	CARL	83	67	71	4
Hunter Clark	STK	32.5	26	24	-2
Oscar Clavarino	STK	53	42	45	3
Charlie Spargo	MELB	89.5	75	88	13
James Bell	SYD	0	0	0	0
Zac Bailey	BL	128	107	103	-4
Mitch Crowden	FRE	79	66	52	-14
Brandon Starcevich	BL	76.5	64	77	13
Aaron Naughton	WB	87.5	73	81	8
Callum L. Brown	COLL	66.5	54	61	7
Brayden Sier	COLL	33.5	27	21	-6
Zac Langdon	WCE	117.5	95	94	-1
Liam Ryan	WCE	133.5	108	128	20
Tobe Watson	FRE	16.5	14	18	4
Tim English	WB	91.5	77	69	-8
Tom De Koning	CARL	57.5	47	48	1
Jordon Butts	ADEL	42	34	43	9
Josh Daicos	COLL	119	96	94	-2
Nathan Murphy	COLL	56	45	37	-8
Oscar McInerney	BL	73.5	61	56	-5
Luke Foley	WCE	84.5	68	67	-1
Nick Coffield	STK	50.5	40	41	1
Liam Henry	FRE	62.5	52	57	5
Keidean Coleman	BL	62	52	52	0
Sam Walsh	CARL	164.5	133	124	-9
Bailey J. Williams	WCE	13	11	11	0
James Rowbottom	SYD	108.5	86	89	3
Rhylee West	WB	16.5	14	14	0
Bailey Smith	WB	64	54	46	-8
Lachlan Sholl	ADEL	65.5	53	51	-2
Max King	STK	43	34	35	1
Chayce Jones	ADEL	66.5	54	45	-9
Sam Wicks	SYD	50.5	40	36	-4
Jack Petruccelle	WCE	35.5	29	32	3
Luke Edwards	WCE	75.5	61	63	2
Isaac Quaynor	COLL	88.5	72	74	2
Joel Amartey	SYD	78.5	62	66	4
Matthew Cottrell	CARL	29	23	31	8
Will Hamill	ADEL	28.5	23	21	-2
Ned McHenry	ADEL	96.5	78	74	-4
Brayden Ham	ESS	86.5	68	73	5
Tom McCartin	SYD	112	88	80	-8
Nick Murray	ADEL	0	0	0	0
Xavier O'Neill	WCE	70	57	50	-7
Riley Collier-Dawkins	RICH	44.5	35	27	-8
Liam Stocker	CARL	80	65	71	6
Riley Thilthorpe	ADEL	87	70	76	6
Kysaiah Pickett	MELB	74.5	62	73	11
Harry Schoenberg	ADEL	67	54	50	-4
Oskar Baker	MELB	0	0	0	0
Harrison Petty	MELB	68.5	57	53	-4
Trent Bianco	COLL	90.5	73	75	2
Trent Rivers	MELB	89.5	75	73	-2
Deven Robertson	BL	108	90	76	-14
Jaxon Prior	BL	69	58	61	3
Luke Jackson	MELB	75	63	60	-3
Caleb Serong	FRE	92	77	84	7
Jack Madgen	COLL	73	59	62	3
Ronin O'Connor	ADEL	23	19	15	-4
Harry Edwards	WCE	109.5	89	83	-6
Caleb Poulter	COLL	122	99	89	-10
Harrison Jones	ESS	22.5	18	17	-1
Cody Weightman	WB	79	66	80	14
Justin McInerney	SYD	72	57	59	2
Ryan Byrnes	STK	57.5	45	48	3
Chad Warner	SYD	47.5	38	39	1
Josh Treacy	FRE	85	71	88	17
Logan McDonald	SYD	53	42	42	0
James Jordon	MELB	93.5	78	82	4
Matthew Owies	CARL	58	47	55	8
Jay Rantall	COLL	22.5	18	14	-4
Nik Cox	ESS	126	99	95	-4
Archie Perkins	ESS	48	38	38	0
David Mundy	FRE	130.5	109	97	-12
Eddie Betts	CARL	80	65	72	7
Shannon Hurn	WCE	120.5	98	92	-6
Grant Birchall	BL	84	70	68	-2
Lance Franklin	SYD	115	91	95	4
Marc Murphy	CARL	78	63	70	7
Paddy Ryder	STK	130.5	103	101	-2
Bachar Houli	RICH	110	87	95	8
David Mackay	ADEL	65.5	53	46	-7
Jack Riewoldt	RICH	66.5	52	63	11
Jarryn Geary	STK	74.5	59	50	-9
Scott Pendlebury	COLL	135	109	108	-1
Josh P. Kennedy	SYD	79	62	64	2
Shane Edwards	RICH	90.5	71	83	12
Dayne Zorko	BL	146	122	122	0
Ed Curnow	CARL	64	52	42	-10
Cale Hooker	ESS	96.5	76	80	4
Trent Cotchin	RICH	88	69	66	-3
David Zaharakis	ESS	66	52	55	3
Rory Sloane	ADEL	121	98	98	0
Nic Naitanui	WCE	145	117	121	4
Daniel Rich	BL	116	97	98	1
Jordan Roughead	COLL	108	87	80	-7
Taylor Walker	ADEL	136	110	116	6
Stefan Martin	WB	29	24	26	2
Dylan Grimes	RICH	92	73	71	-2
Jake Melksham	MELB	35	29	27	-2
Steele Sidebottom	COLL	139	113	117	4
Travis Colyer	FRE	68.5	57	47	-10
Michael Walters	FRE	58	49	42	-7
Liam Jones	CARL	133.5	108	97	-11
Brad Sheppard	WCE	4.5	4	-1	-5
Steven May	MELB	116.5	97	106	9
Jack Redden	WCE	133	108	96	-12
Taylor Duryea	WB	130	109	112	3
Michael Hibberd	MELB	67.5	56	62	6
Josh Thomas	COLL	86.5	70	68	-2
Dane Rampe	SYD	90.5	71	65	-6
Mitch Robinson	BL	76	63	64	1
Max Gawn	MELB	171	143	138	-5
Josh Caddy	RICH	84.5	67	62	-5
Dion Prestia	RICH	122	96	99	3
Dyson Heppell	ESS	106.5	84	88	4
Jimmy Webster	STK	90	71	65	-6
Luke Parker	SYD	117	92	101	9
Alex Keath	WB	73	61	62	1
Tom Liberatore	WB	110.5	93	102	9
Andrew Gaff	WCE	137	111	110	-1
Jamie Cripps	WCE	74.5	60	63	3
Jack Darling	WCE	82.5	67	67	0
Dustin Martin	RICH	122.5	97	102	5
Josh Bruce	WB	63	53	52	-1
Tom McDonald	MELB	122	102	112	10
Ryan Lester	BL	58.5	49	51	2
Nat Fyfe	FRE	72.5	61	70	9
Will Hoskin-Elliott	COLL	104.5	85	91	6
Brodie Smith	ADEL	144	117	119	2
Jack Newnes	CARL	67.5	55	56	1
Robbie Fox	SYD	59	47	48	1
Brody Mihocek	COLL	46	37	45	8
Harry Cunningham	SYD	132	104	97	-7
Elliot Yeo	WCE	111	90	87	-3
Rory Laird	ADEL	185.5	150	144	-6
Lachie Neale	BL	127	106	84	-22
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	63.5	53	48	-5
Hayden Crozier	WB	108	91	94	3
Jarryd Lyons	BL	157.5	132	128	-4
Jamie Elliott	COLL	144	117	120	3
Sebastian Ross	STK	114.5	90	99	9
Jack Crisp	COLL	151	122	120	-2
Jake Stringer	ESS	60.5	48	44	-4
George Hewett	SYD	113.5	90	93	3
Andrew Phillips	ESS	119	94	97	3
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	60.5	48	49	1
Jason Johannisen	WB	49.5	42	57	15
Nathan Wilson	FRE	116	97	89	-8
Marcus Adams	BL	71.5	60	62	2
Tom Hickey	SYD	157	124	136	12
Brad Crouch	STK	188.5	149	141	-8
Luke Dunstan	STK	109	86	79	-7
Joe Daniher	BL	86	72	88	16
Lachie Hunter	WB	117	98	101	3
Kamdyn McIntosh	RICH	74	58	48	-10
Tim Membrey	STK	137.5	109	128	19
James Stewart	ESS	65.5	52	39	-13
Nick Vlastuin	RICH	85	67	71	4
Zac Williams	CARL	108.5	88	103	15
Paul Seedsman	ADEL	153	124	136	12
James Aish	FRE	97	81	71	-10
Caleb Daniel	WB	123.5	104	99	-5
Nathan Broad	RICH	61	48	38	-10
Mason Wood	STK	19.5	15	16	1
Jake Lloyd	SYD	135.5	107	108	1
Adam Saad	CARL	121	98	97	-1
Jack Macrae	WB	153.5	129	129	0
Sam Docherty	CARL	102	83	94	11
Bradley Hill	STK	115.5	91	82	-9
Patrick Ambrose	ESS	32.5	26	22	-4
Jack Martin	CARL	80	65	61	-4
Jack Steele	STK	195	154	140	-14
Blake Acres	FRE	92	77	65	-12
Dom Sheed	WCE	133.5	108	99	-9
Jack Billings	STK	60.5	48	43	-5
Christian Salem	MELB	81.5	68	64	-4
Alex Neal-Bullen	MELB	79	66	68	2
Callum Wilkie	STK	126	100	102	2
Marcus Bontempelli	WB	173	145	149	4
Nick Hind	ESS	100	79	75	-4
Jake Kelly	ADEL	51	41	48	7
Daniel McStay	BL	43	36	36	0
Reilly O'Brien	ADEL	172	139	137	-2
James Harmes	MELB	107	89	86	-3
Nic Newman	CARL	107	87	90	3
Christian Petracca	MELB	160	134	130	-4
Angus Brayshaw	MELB	75	63	69	6
Jayden Laverde	ESS	75	59	56	-3
Jake Lever	MELB	51.5	43	44	1
Darcy Moore	COLL	90	73	81	8
Marc Pittonet	CARL	92	75	73	-2
Jackson Nelson	WCE	82.5	67	59	-8
Callum Ah Chee	BL	74.5	62	63	1
Alec Waterman	ESS	62	49	57	8
Connor Blakely	FRE	51	43	43	0
Shane McAdam	ADEL	95.5	77	80	3
Isaac Heeney	SYD	66.5	53	55	2
Kyle Langford	ESS	149.5	118	126	8
Tom Barrass	WCE	117.5	95	81	-14
Darcy Cameron	COLL	58	47	53	6
Charlie Cameron	BL	75.5	63	53	-10
Patrick Cripps	CARL	102.5	83	81	-2
Rory Lobb	FRE	53	44	45	1
Aaron Francis	ESS	29	23	25	2
Jack Graham	RICH	157.5	124	117	-7
Jason Castagna	RICH	123.5	97	105	8
Zaine Cordy	WB	59.5	50	46	-4
Brayden Maynard	COLL	114.5	93	100	7
Zach Merrett	ESS	180	142	137	-5
Anthony Scott	WB	81	68	75	7
Jayden Short	RICH	104.5	82	78	-4
Roarke Smith	WB	54	45	49	4
Jordan Dawson	SYD	115	91	89	-2
Bailey Williams	WB	68	57	56	-1
Dan Butler	STK	67.5	53	48	-5
Jake Aarts	RICH	116.5	92	89	-3
Dougal Howard	STK	73	58	67	9
Marlion Pickett	RICH	103	81	78	-3
Sam Weideman	MELB	42.5	35	35	0
Darcy Tucker	FRE	102	86	80	-6
Darcy Parish	ESS	212.5	168	166	-2
Tom Cole	WCE	70.5	57	57	0
Rhys Mathieson	BL	17.5	15	7	-8
Jacob Weitering	CARL	103.5	84	82	-2
Callum Mills	SYD	137	108	100	-8
Ben Keays	ADEL	149	121	109	-12
Eric Hipwood	BL	78.5	66	68	2
Shai Bolton	RICH	151.5	119	119	0
Mabior Chol	RICH	132	104	93	-11
Jordan De Goey	COLL	85.5	69	70	1
Jayden Hunt	MELB	53	44	34	-10
Jack Sinclair	STK	132.5	105	99	-6
Harris Andrews	BL	137.5	115	117	2
Matt Guelfi	ESS	27.5	22	19	-3
Jake Waterman	WCE	74.5	60	61	1
Clayton Oliver	MELB	109	91	94	3
Bailey Dale	WB	112	94	96	2
Tom Papley	SYD	93.5	74	80	6
Brennan Cox	FRE	77	65	67	2
Mason Redman	ESS	108.5	86	95	9
Will Hayward	SYD	79	62	67	5
Andrew McPherson	ADEL	40	32	38	6
Ryan Gardner	WB	33.5	28	30	2
Josh Rotham	WCE	98	79	75	-4
Griffin Logue	FRE	71	60	54	-6
Andrew McGrath	ESS	12.5	10	9	-1
Oliver Florent	SYD	94	74	73	-1
Taylin Duman	FRE	83.5	70	67	-3
Josh Battle	STK	47.5	38	37	-1
Sean Darcy	FRE	138	116	112	-4
Tom Highmore	STK	19	15	17	2
Will Setterfield	CARL	115	93	82	-11
Luke Ryan	FRE	133	112	133	21
Jamaine Jones	WCE	74	60	74	14
James Rowe	ADEL	37.5	30	32	2
Darcy Fogarty	ADEL	73	59	58	-1
Tom Sparrow	MELB	91.5	76	75	-1
Zac Fisher	CARL	71	58	53	-5

 

LEGEND:

Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.

 

Download the full breakdowns:

Round 12 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

Round 12 Summary (General Categories)

---

Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom