So, I’ve been trying to use the quarter-by-quarter scores that I can now generate to try and work out once and for all what’s behind those blue and red lines in the above chart.
I decided I would start by trying to manually apply weightings, to get a feel for what works and what doesn’t, before I try and automate that part of it.
I’ve done this before, seemingly with some success, with individual player scores – how much harder could it be to do it for a whole two teams?
First, I tried the Adelaide vs Hawthorn game, which I picked out at random. Here’s how the game went:
No matter what I did, I couldn’t seem to get the weightings to work. Making one player’s score less wrong would make an other’s more so. I then decided that I’d perhaps picked out a tricky game – there are multiple points in the above timeline which could be viewed as the game being ‘on the line’, so I thought I’d try a more straightforward one: Brisbane vs Gold Coast:
This didn’t go much better.
It turns out that although it’s easy enough to get two players’ scores to line up by tweaking quarter-by-quarter weightings, it’s a lot harder to get it to work for all the players in a match.
There appears to be something else going on that I haven’t accounted for.
It then occurred to me that since CD does some in-game scaling throughout each match (so that people don’t start complaining when their guy gets scaled down from 200 to 130 at the end – as regular readers of this column will no doubt be aware, the allocation of raw points in each match is way over 3300). I have a strong recollection of reading something, somewhere about each quarter being initially scaled to around 750 points, but a quick search online couldn’t find anything about this.
750 points per quarter would mean 3000 for the match, leaving around 300 points available for ‘bonus’ allocation based on whenever the game was on the line. This fits quite well with the normal (non-time-based) SyntheticCoach scores, where the sum of all absolute errors, for Round 19 at least, was about 7.6 percent of the total scaled points (3300 x 9 games) given out.
Doing this for the Lions/Suns match definitely seemed to push things in the right direction – the mean absolute error, or how wrong each score was on average, stayed at around 6, but it was a smaller group of outliers blowing that out.
I still can’t seem to get those extra 300-odd points to go where they’re meant to, though. I’ll keep plugging away, but the mystery of SuperCoach scoring has not been solved this week.
If anyone wants to have a go at trying to make the weightings work, the quarter-by-quarter scores are once again available in a spreadsheet at the bottom of this post, along with the usual breakdown and summary sheets.
Name | Club | Raw | Linear-Scaled | Actual | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rory Laird | ADEL | 219 | 172 | 178 | 6 |
Patrick Dangerfield | GEEL | 177 | 152 | 165 | 13 |
Josh P. Kennedy | SYD | 172.5 | 142 | 154 | 12 |
Oscar McInerney | BL | 171.5 | 137 | 148 | 11 |
Lachie Whitfield | GWS | 181 | 155 | 146 | -9 |
Jack Macrae | WB | 186 | 153 | 146 | -7 |
Caleb Daniel | WB | 189 | 155 | 145 | -10 |
Clayton Oliver | MELB | 176 | 145 | 144 | -1 |
Bailey Smith | WB | 165.5 | 136 | 141 | 5 |
Jack Crisp | COLL | 166.5 | 141 | 140 | -1 |
Zak Jones | STK | 179.5 | 143 | 140 | -3 |
Brayden Fiorini | GCFC | 184.5 | 147 | 139 | -8 |
Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 154 | 126 | 136 | 10 |
Tarryn Thomas | NMFC | 182 | 141 | 135 | -6 |
Daniel Rich | BL | 141.5 | 113 | 132 | 19 |
Nick Larkey | NMFC | 155 | 120 | 131 | 11 |
Isaac Heeney | SYD | 146.5 | 120 | 128 | 8 |
Errol Gulden | SYD | 155 | 127 | 127 | 0 |
Max Gawn | MELB | 160 | 131 | 125 | -6 |
Max King | STK | 142.5 | 114 | 124 | 10 |
Aaron Hall | NMFC | 145.5 | 113 | 124 | 11 |
Todd Goldstein | NMFC | 156.5 | 122 | 122 | 0 |
Luke Parker | SYD | 149 | 122 | 122 | 0 |
Ollie Wines | PORT | 135 | 114 | 122 | 8 |
Cameron Guthrie | GEEL | 148 | 127 | 120 | -7 |
Tom Green | GWS | 122.5 | 105 | 119 | 14 |
Tom Stewart | GEEL | 157.5 | 135 | 118 | -17 |
Willem Drew | PORT | 139 | 118 | 117 | -1 |
Dom Sheed | WCE | 138.5 | 110 | 116 | 6 |
Jordan Ridley | ESS | 134.5 | 115 | 115 | 0 |
Dylan Moore | HAW | 147 | 116 | 115 | -1 |
Tom Liberatore | WB | 139.5 | 115 | 115 | 0 |
Touk Miller | GCFC | 148 | 118 | 115 | -3 |
Brayden Maynard | COLL | 118.5 | 100 | 115 | 15 |
Tim Kelly | WCE | 129 | 103 | 114 | 11 |
Jake Lever | MELB | 131.5 | 108 | 114 | 6 |
Jaidyn Stephenson | NMFC | 143 | 111 | 112 | 1 |
Tom Hawkins | GEEL | 101 | 87 | 112 | 25 |
Nic Naitanui | WCE | 142 | 113 | 112 | -1 |
Reilly O'Brien | ADEL | 170 | 134 | 112 | -22 |
Tom Doedee | ADEL | 133.5 | 105 | 111 | 6 |
Daniel Rioli | RICH | 131.5 | 113 | 111 | -2 |
Sam Taylor | GWS | 129.5 | 111 | 111 | 0 |
Ben McEvoy | HAW | 134.5 | 106 | 111 | 5 |
Tom Mitchell | HAW | 140.5 | 111 | 111 | 0 |
Jordan Dawson | SYD | 139 | 114 | 111 | -3 |
Josh Corbett | GCFC | 130.5 | 104 | 110 | 6 |
Andrew Brayshaw | FRE | 142 | 117 | 109 | -8 |
Steele Sidebottom | COLL | 130.5 | 111 | 109 | -2 |
Jack Steele | STK | 139.5 | 111 | 109 | -2 |
Hugh McCluggage | BL | 126.5 | 101 | 108 | 7 |
Jack Madgen | COLL | 133.5 | 113 | 108 | -5 |
Dane Rampe | SYD | 125.5 | 103 | 107 | 4 |
Dan Butler | STK | 138.5 | 110 | 107 | -3 |
Josh J. Kennedy | WCE | 104.5 | 83 | 106 | 23 |
Charlie Dixon | PORT | 119 | 101 | 105 | 4 |
Wil Powell | GCFC | 123 | 98 | 104 | 6 |
Elliot Yeo | WCE | 141.5 | 113 | 104 | -9 |
Will Snelling | ESS | 117.5 | 101 | 104 | 3 |
Adam Cerra | FRE | 149.5 | 123 | 103 | -20 |
Caleb Serong | FRE | 133.5 | 110 | 103 | -7 |
Tom Hickey | SYD | 126.5 | 104 | 103 | -1 |
Travis Boak | PORT | 127.5 | 108 | 102 | -6 |
Dyson Heppell | ESS | 121.5 | 104 | 102 | -2 |
Andrew Gaff | WCE | 151 | 120 | 102 | -18 |
Nathan Wilson | FRE | 130.5 | 107 | 102 | -5 |
Lachie Hunter | WB | 128 | 105 | 102 | -3 |
Jaeger O'Meara | HAW | 139 | 109 | 102 | -7 |
Jacob Weitering | CARL | 106.5 | 83 | 102 | 19 |
Bailey Scott | NMFC | 139.5 | 108 | 101 | -7 |
Chad Wingard | HAW | 140.5 | 111 | 101 | -10 |
Jarryd Lyons | BL | 145 | 115 | 100 | -15 |
Jake Lloyd | SYD | 131.5 | 108 | 100 | -8 |
Harris Andrews | BL | 123 | 98 | 100 | 2 |
Isaac Smith | GEEL | 107 | 92 | 99 | 7 |
Jy Simpkin | NMFC | 143.5 | 112 | 99 | -13 |
Harry Edwards | WCE | 119 | 95 | 98 | 3 |
Ben Cunnington | NMFC | 116 | 90 | 97 | 7 |
Toby Nankervis | RICH | 95 | 82 | 97 | 15 |
Harry Schoenberg | ADEL | 116 | 91 | 96 | 5 |
Jeremy Sharp | GCFC | 109 | 87 | 96 | 9 |
Nik Cox | ESS | 117 | 100 | 96 | -4 |
Ben Keays | ADEL | 123.5 | 97 | 96 | -1 |
Jack Sinclair | STK | 113.5 | 90 | 96 | 6 |
Harry Perryman | GWS | 118.5 | 102 | 96 | -6 |
Todd Marshall | PORT | 99.5 | 84 | 95 | 11 |
Brody Mihocek | COLL | 108.5 | 92 | 95 | 3 |
Jack Viney | MELB | 120 | 99 | 95 | -4 |
Peter Ladhams | PORT | 116.5 | 99 | 95 | -4 |
Brent Daniels | GWS | 112 | 96 | 94 | -2 |
Tim English | WB | 127.5 | 105 | 94 | -11 |
Josh Rotham | WCE | 108.5 | 86 | 94 | 8 |
Sean Darcy | FRE | 134 | 110 | 94 | -16 |
Shannon Hurn | WCE | 114.5 | 91 | 93 | 2 |
Rhys Stanley | GEEL | 105 | 90 | 93 | 3 |
Connor Rozee | PORT | 98.5 | 84 | 92 | 8 |
Ed Curnow | CARL | 118.5 | 92 | 92 | 0 |
Lachie Henderson | GEEL | 88 | 76 | 92 | 16 |
Joe Daniher | BL | 106.5 | 85 | 92 | 7 |
Christian Petracca | MELB | 116.5 | 96 | 92 | -4 |
Josh Schache | WB | 110.5 | 91 | 91 | 0 |
Dan Houston | PORT | 101 | 86 | 91 | 5 |
Riley Bonner | PORT | 99.5 | 84 | 91 | 7 |
Oliver Florent | SYD | 112 | 92 | 91 | -1 |
Jack Henry | GEEL | 97.5 | 84 | 90 | 6 |
James Worpel | HAW | 128 | 101 | 90 | -11 |
Paddy Dow | CARL | 106.5 | 83 | 89 | 6 |
Jack Ziebell | NMFC | 103 | 80 | 89 | 9 |
Mitch Robinson | BL | 119 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
Adam Kennedy | GWS | 103.5 | 89 | 89 | 0 |
Robbie Fox | SYD | 115.5 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
Sebastian Ross | STK | 119.5 | 95 | 89 | -6 |
Jayden Short | RICH | 105.5 | 91 | 89 | -2 |
Tom De Koning | CARL | 118 | 92 | 88 | -4 |
Lincoln McCarthy | BL | 100.5 | 80 | 88 | 8 |
Jesse Hogan | GWS | 100 | 86 | 88 | 2 |
Isaac Cumming | GWS | 99 | 85 | 87 | 2 |
Liam Duggan | WCE | 127.5 | 102 | 87 | -15 |
Jack Silvagni | CARL | 124.5 | 97 | 86 | -11 |
Dayne Zorko | BL | 125 | 99 | 86 | -13 |
George Hewett | SYD | 107 | 88 | 86 | -2 |
James Stewart | ESS | 96 | 82 | 86 | 4 |
Alex Neal-Bullen | MELB | 116.5 | 96 | 86 | -10 |
Karl Amon | PORT | 109 | 92 | 86 | -6 |
Lachie Ash | GWS | 95 | 81 | 85 | 4 |
Jed Anderson | NMFC | 113 | 88 | 85 | -3 |
Brodie Grundy | COLL | 96 | 81 | 85 | 4 |
Luke Dunstan | STK | 106.5 | 85 | 85 | 0 |
Tim O'Brien | HAW | 105 | 83 | 85 | 2 |
Josh Kelly | GWS | 105 | 90 | 85 | -5 |
Esava Ratugolea | GEEL | 87 | 75 | 84 | 9 |
Jack Lukosius | GCFC | 104.5 | 83 | 84 | 1 |
Jack Riewoldt | RICH | 91.5 | 79 | 84 | 5 |
David Swallow | GCFC | 111 | 88 | 84 | -4 |
Brodie Smith | ADEL | 85.5 | 67 | 84 | 17 |
Nic Newman | CARL | 112.5 | 87 | 84 | -3 |
Lachlan Bramble | HAW | 101.5 | 80 | 83 | 3 |
Shane Mumford | GWS | 107.5 | 92 | 83 | -9 |
Scott Lycett | PORT | 108.5 | 92 | 83 | -9 |
Trent Dumont | NMFC | 122 | 95 | 83 | -12 |
Daniel McStay | BL | 87 | 69 | 83 | 14 |
Connor Idun | GWS | 88 | 75 | 82 | 7 |
Atu Bosenavulagi | NMFC | 101 | 78 | 82 | 4 |
Tom McDonald | MELB | 93 | 76 | 82 | 6 |
Jake Stringer | ESS | 84 | 72 | 82 | 10 |
Sam Menegola | GEEL | 96 | 83 | 82 | -1 |
Sam Walsh | CARL | 99.5 | 77 | 81 | 4 |
Ned McHenry | ADEL | 94.5 | 74 | 81 | 7 |
Rhyan Mansell | RICH | 88.5 | 76 | 81 | 5 |
Jordan Roughead | COLL | 83.5 | 71 | 81 | 10 |
Jack Darling | WCE | 87 | 69 | 81 | 12 |
Jake Waterman | WCE | 92 | 73 | 81 | 8 |
Matthew Parker | RICH | 97 | 83 | 81 | -2 |
Mitch Lewis | HAW | 92 | 72 | 80 | 8 |
Ben King | GCFC | 95.5 | 76 | 80 | 4 |
Charlie Cameron | BL | 104 | 83 | 80 | -3 |
Zaine Cordy | WB | 100 | 82 | 80 | -2 |
Blake Hardwick | HAW | 92.5 | 73 | 80 | 7 |
Jordan De Goey | COLL | 102.5 | 87 | 80 | -7 |
Ned Reeves | HAW | 112.5 | 89 | 79 | -10 |
Tom Fullarton | BL | 104.5 | 83 | 79 | -4 |
Callan Ward | GWS | 97 | 83 | 79 | -4 |
Jack Newnes | CARL | 114.5 | 89 | 79 | -10 |
Paul Seedsman | ADEL | 100 | 79 | 79 | 0 |
Jack Graham | RICH | 83.5 | 72 | 79 | 7 |
Bailey Williams | WB | 95 | 78 | 79 | 1 |
Jack Ross | RICH | 96 | 83 | 78 | -5 |
Tom McCartin | SYD | 92.5 | 76 | 78 | 2 |
Jamie Cripps | WCE | 94 | 75 | 78 | 3 |
Luke Davies-Uniacke | NMFC | 117 | 91 | 77 | -14 |
Mark O'Connor | GEEL | 89 | 77 | 77 | 0 |
Luke Dahlhaus | GEEL | 84 | 72 | 77 | 5 |
Taylor Adams | COLL | 98.5 | 84 | 77 | -7 |
Luke McDonald | NMFC | 117 | 91 | 77 | -14 |
Peter Wright | ESS | 104 | 89 | 77 | -12 |
Paddy Ryder | STK | 103.5 | 83 | 76 | -7 |
Brandan Parfitt | GEEL | 86 | 74 | 76 | 2 |
Aaron Naughton | WB | 82.5 | 68 | 75 | 7 |
Nick Coffield | STK | 93 | 74 | 75 | 1 |
Patrick Cripps | CARL | 109 | 85 | 75 | -10 |
Sam Petrevski-Seton | CARL | 88 | 68 | 75 | 7 |
Ben Ainsworth | GCFC | 95.5 | 76 | 75 | -1 |
Jack Bowes | GCFC | 82 | 65 | 75 | 10 |
Darcy Fogarty | ADEL | 106.5 | 84 | 75 | -9 |
Trent Rivers | MELB | 88 | 72 | 74 | 2 |
Taylor Walker | ADEL | 80 | 63 | 74 | 11 |
Sam Reid | SYD | 78 | 64 | 74 | 10 |
Bradley Hill | STK | 104.5 | 83 | 74 | -9 |
Jack Scrimshaw | HAW | 89.5 | 70 | 74 | 4 |
Ben Brown | MELB | 77.5 | 64 | 73 | 9 |
Adam Saad | CARL | 88 | 68 | 73 | 5 |
Mark Blicavs | GEEL | 101 | 87 | 73 | -14 |
Jacob Hopper | GWS | 80 | 69 | 73 | 4 |
Sam Durham | ESS | 83.5 | 72 | 73 | 1 |
Ryan Lester | BL | 94.5 | 75 | 72 | -3 |
Jayden Laverde | ESS | 80.5 | 69 | 72 | 3 |
Bailey Dale | WB | 87 | 71 | 72 | 1 |
Tom Papley | SYD | 76.5 | 63 | 72 | 9 |
Sam Draper | ESS | 75.5 | 65 | 71 | 6 |
Will Hamill | ADEL | 82 | 65 | 71 | 6 |
Trent Cotchin | RICH | 88 | 76 | 71 | -5 |
Rory Sloane | ADEL | 83.5 | 66 | 71 | 5 |
Lachie Plowman | CARL | 91 | 71 | 71 | 0 |
Zac Williams | CARL | 67 | 52 | 71 | 19 |
Darcy Cameron | COLL | 83.5 | 71 | 71 | 0 |
Zach Merrett | ESS | 79.5 | 68 | 71 | 3 |
Nick Blakey | SYD | 85 | 70 | 70 | 0 |
Matt Rowell | GCFC | 88.5 | 70 | 70 | 0 |
Lance Franklin | SYD | 81 | 67 | 70 | 3 |
Zach Tuohy | GEEL | 100.5 | 86 | 70 | -16 |
Sam Powell-Pepper | PORT | 82 | 70 | 70 | 0 |
Jayden Hunt | MELB | 99.5 | 82 | 70 | -12 |
Lachlan Murphy | ADEL | 76 | 60 | 69 | 9 |
Liam Jones | CARL | 85 | 66 | 69 | 3 |
Nat Fyfe | FRE | 73.5 | 60 | 69 | 9 |
Nick Haynes | GWS | 92 | 79 | 69 | -10 |
Darcy Byrne-Jones | PORT | 80.5 | 68 | 69 | 1 |
Cale Hooker | ESS | 76.5 | 66 | 68 | 2 |
Taylor Duryea | WB | 87.5 | 72 | 68 | -4 |
Tim Membrey | STK | 79 | 63 | 68 | 5 |
Callum Wilkie | STK | 92.5 | 74 | 68 | -6 |
Sam Frost | HAW | 75.5 | 59 | 67 | 8 |
Jack Martin | CARL | 80 | 62 | 67 | 5 |
Callum Ah Chee | BL | 76.5 | 61 | 67 | 6 |
Xavier Duursma | PORT | 85 | 72 | 66 | -6 |
Chayce Jones | ADEL | 81.5 | 64 | 66 | 2 |
Trey Ruscoe | COLL | 76 | 64 | 66 | 2 |
James Madden | BL | 78 | 62 | 66 | 4 |
Phil Davis | GWS | 81.5 | 70 | 66 | -4 |
Griffin Logue | FRE | 82 | 67 | 66 | -1 |
David Astbury | RICH | 74 | 64 | 65 | 1 |
Ryan Burton | PORT | 78.5 | 67 | 65 | -2 |
Will Brodie | GCFC | 96.5 | 77 | 65 | -12 |
Ryan Garthwaite | RICH | 77 | 66 | 65 | -1 |
Gryan Miers | GEEL | 67 | 58 | 64 | 6 |
Kysaiah Pickett | MELB | 74.5 | 61 | 64 | 3 |
Shaun Atley | NMFC | 85.5 | 66 | 64 | -2 |
Lachie Neale | BL | 87.5 | 70 | 64 | -6 |
Christian Salem | MELB | 81 | 67 | 64 | -3 |
Billy Frampton | ADEL | 83 | 65 | 64 | -1 |
Caleb Poulter | COLL | 82 | 70 | 63 | -7 |
Oliver Henry | COLL | 71.5 | 61 | 63 | 2 |
Sam J. Reid | GWS | 64.5 | 55 | 63 | 8 |
Brad Sheppard | WCE | 83.5 | 67 | 63 | -4 |
Daniel Lloyd | GWS | 71 | 61 | 63 | 2 |
Jimmy Webster | STK | 89.5 | 71 | 63 | -8 |
James Aish | FRE | 78 | 64 | 63 | -1 |
Tom Atkins | GEEL | 77 | 66 | 63 | -3 |
Trent Bianco | COLL | 67.5 | 57 | 62 | 5 |
Tom Lynch | ADEL | 93 | 73 | 62 | -11 |
Travis Colyer | FRE | 73.5 | 60 | 62 | 2 |
Steven May | MELB | 73 | 60 | 62 | 2 |
Andrew McPherson | ADEL | 74 | 58 | 62 | 4 |
Luke Ryan | FRE | 78.5 | 64 | 62 | -2 |
Nick Hind | ESS | 78.5 | 67 | 61 | -6 |
Mason Redman | ESS | 69.5 | 60 | 61 | 1 |
John Noble | COLL | 81 | 69 | 60 | -9 |
James Cousins | HAW | 75.5 | 59 | 60 | 1 |
Sydney Stack | RICH | 62 | 53 | 60 | 7 |
James Rowbottom | SYD | 65 | 53 | 60 | 7 |
Kyle Hartigan | HAW | 87 | 68 | 60 | -8 |
Harry Himmelberg | GWS | 59.5 | 51 | 60 | 9 |
Brad Close | GEEL | 71 | 61 | 60 | -1 |
Jack Payne | BL | 84 | 67 | 59 | -8 |
Tom J. Lynch | RICH | 81.5 | 70 | 59 | -11 |
Jeremy McGovern | WCE | 74 | 59 | 59 | 0 |
Zac Langdon | WCE | 72 | 57 | 58 | 1 |
Isaac Quaynor | COLL | 68 | 58 | 58 | 0 |
Charlie Ballard | GCFC | 68.5 | 55 | 58 | 3 |
Devon Smith | ESS | 68.5 | 59 | 58 | -1 |
Luke Jackson | MELB | 64 | 53 | 57 | 4 |
Paul Hunter | STK | 65 | 52 | 57 | 5 |
Will Hayward | SYD | 78.5 | 64 | 57 | -7 |
Boyd Woodcock | PORT | 63.5 | 54 | 57 | 3 |
Mitch Crowden | FRE | 67.5 | 55 | 56 | 1 |
Sam Wicks | SYD | 59.5 | 49 | 56 | 7 |
Luke Breust | HAW | 72 | 57 | 56 | -1 |
Jamie Elliott | COLL | 61 | 52 | 56 | 4 |
Bayley Fritsch | MELB | 63.5 | 52 | 55 | 3 |
Mitch Hannan | WB | 67 | 55 | 55 | 0 |
Elliott Himmelberg | ADEL | 90.5 | 71 | 55 | -16 |
Miles Bergman | PORT | 58.5 | 50 | 55 | 5 |
Noah Anderson | GCFC | 67.5 | 54 | 55 | 1 |
Brandon Walker | FRE | 62.5 | 51 | 55 | 4 |
Justin McInerney | SYD | 64 | 53 | 55 | 2 |
Dylan Grimes | RICH | 68.5 | 59 | 55 | -4 |
Gary Rohan | GEEL | 64 | 55 | 55 | 0 |
Tom Jonas | PORT | 82.5 | 70 | 55 | -15 |
Connor West | WCE | 63.5 | 51 | 55 | 4 |
Oscar Clavarino | STK | 68 | 54 | 54 | 0 |
Hayden Young | FRE | 69 | 57 | 54 | -3 |
Kane Lambert | RICH | 65 | 56 | 54 | -2 |
Jake Kolodjashnij | GEEL | 78 | 67 | 54 | -13 |
Daniel Howe | HAW | 81 | 64 | 54 | -10 |
Darcy Tucker | FRE | 64 | 53 | 54 | 1 |
Tom Cole | WCE | 58 | 46 | 54 | 8 |
Nathan Murphy | COLL | 68.5 | 58 | 53 | -5 |
Caleb Graham | GCFC | 62 | 49 | 53 | 4 |
Riley Garcia | WB | 60 | 49 | 53 | 4 |
Liam Shiels | HAW | 71.5 | 56 | 53 | -3 |
Michael Walters | FRE | 52 | 43 | 53 | 10 |
Dylan Shiel | ESS | 60 | 51 | 53 | 2 |
Jack Billings | STK | 61 | 49 | 53 | 4 |
Jake Aarts | RICH | 68 | 58 | 53 | -5 |
Tim Taranto | GWS | 75 | 64 | 53 | -11 |
Bailey Banfield | FRE | 57 | 47 | 53 | 6 |
Lloyd Meek | FRE | 61.5 | 51 | 52 | 1 |
Tanner Bruhn | GWS | 45.5 | 39 | 52 | 13 |
Finlay Macrae | COLL | 67.5 | 57 | 52 | -5 |
Will Phillips | NMFC | 59 | 46 | 52 | 6 |
Jed Bews | GEEL | 59.5 | 51 | 52 | 1 |
Aliir Aliir | PORT | 64.5 | 55 | 52 | -3 |
Tom Phillips | HAW | 63.5 | 50 | 52 | 2 |
Chris Burgess | GCFC | 76 | 60 | 51 | -9 |
Zak Butters | PORT | 57.5 | 49 | 51 | 2 |
Sam Flanders | GCFC | 71.5 | 57 | 51 | -6 |
Joel Selwood | GEEL | 50.5 | 43 | 51 | 8 |
James Harmes | MELB | 70.5 | 58 | 51 | -7 |
Xavier O'Halloran | GWS | 59.5 | 51 | 50 | -1 |
Cody Weightman | WB | 54 | 44 | 50 | 6 |
Zac Bailey | BL | 62.5 | 50 | 49 | -1 |
Brayden Ham | ESS | 59.5 | 51 | 49 | -2 |
Ed Richards | WB | 58 | 48 | 49 | 1 |
Xavier O'Neill | WCE | 57.5 | 46 | 49 | 3 |
Liam Stocker | CARL | 47.5 | 37 | 49 | 12 |
Dean Kent | STK | 66 | 53 | 49 | -4 |
Sam Collins | GCFC | 63 | 50 | 49 | -1 |
Tom Cutler | ESS | 60.5 | 52 | 49 | -3 |
Ed Langdon | MELB | 63 | 52 | 49 | -3 |
Darcy Parish | ESS | 64 | 55 | 49 | -6 |
David Zaharakis | ESS | 56 | 48 | 48 | 0 |
Josh Bruce | WB | 55.5 | 46 | 48 | 2 |
Jake Kelly | ADEL | 59.5 | 47 | 48 | 1 |
Ben McKay | NMFC | 50.5 | 39 | 47 | 8 |
Charlie Spargo | MELB | 47 | 39 | 47 | 8 |
Angus Brayshaw | MELB | 68.5 | 56 | 47 | -9 |
Zac Fisher | CARL | 59.5 | 46 | 47 | 1 |
Matthew Kennedy | CARL | 63.5 | 49 | 46 | -3 |
Curtis Taylor | NMFC | 77.5 | 60 | 46 | -14 |
Sean Lemmens | GCFC | 53.5 | 43 | 46 | 3 |
Liam Baker | RICH | 49.5 | 43 | 45 | 2 |
Brandon Starcevich | BL | 72 | 57 | 45 | -12 |
Archie Perkins | ESS | 59.5 | 51 | 45 | -6 |
David Mundy | FRE | 58 | 48 | 45 | -3 |
Marlion Pickett | RICH | 54.5 | 47 | 45 | -2 |
Matthew Cottrell | CARL | 56 | 44 | 44 | 0 |
Rory Atkins | GCFC | 47.5 | 38 | 44 | 6 |
Jason Castagna | RICH | 60.5 | 52 | 44 | -8 |
Dougal Howard | STK | 51 | 41 | 44 | 3 |
James Bell | SYD | 53.5 | 44 | 43 | -1 |
Grant Birchall | BL | 69.5 | 55 | 43 | -12 |
Matt Taberner | FRE | 38.5 | 32 | 43 | 11 |
Kayne Turner | NMFC | 61.5 | 48 | 43 | -5 |
Ben Long | STK | 62.5 | 50 | 43 | -7 |
Tristan Xerri | NMFC | 53 | 41 | 42 | 1 |
Jacob Koschitzke | HAW | 48.5 | 38 | 42 | 4 |
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan | WB | 38 | 31 | 42 | 11 |
Matthew Owies | CARL | 47.5 | 37 | 42 | 5 |
Shai Bolton | RICH | 52.5 | 45 | 42 | -3 |
Mabior Chol | RICH | 37.5 | 32 | 42 | 10 |
Lachlan Sholl | ADEL | 57 | 45 | 41 | -4 |
James Jordon | MELB | 52 | 43 | 41 | -2 |
Deven Robertson | BL | 53 | 42 | 40 | -2 |
Alex Pearce | FRE | 41.5 | 34 | 40 | 6 |
Anton Tohill | COLL | 46.5 | 39 | 39 | 0 |
Quinton Narkle | GEEL | 70 | 60 | 39 | -21 |
Mitch Georgiades | PORT | 42.5 | 36 | 38 | 2 |
Josh Walker | NMFC | 49.5 | 38 | 38 | 0 |
Ryan Byrnes | STK | 56 | 45 | 37 | -8 |
Roarke Smith | WB | 44.5 | 37 | 37 | 0 |
Lachie Schultz | FRE | 51.5 | 42 | 36 | -6 |
Denver Grainger-Barras | HAW | 39 | 31 | 36 | 5 |
Mark Hutchings | WCE | 51 | 41 | 36 | -5 |
Michael Hibberd | MELB | 51 | 42 | 36 | -6 |
Tom Williamson | CARL | 52 | 40 | 36 | -4 |
Oscar Allen | WCE | 44 | 35 | 35 | 0 |
Cameron Zurhaar | NMFC | 39.5 | 31 | 35 | 4 |
Liam Henry | FRE | 53 | 44 | 34 | -10 |
Jack Ginnivan | COLL | 55 | 47 | 34 | -13 |
Izak Rankine | GCFC | 44.5 | 35 | 33 | -2 |
Jordon Butts | ADEL | 54.5 | 43 | 33 | -10 |
Alex Sexton | GCFC | 38 | 30 | 33 | 3 |
Shane Edwards | RICH | 50.5 | 43 | 32 | -11 |
Brad Crouch | STK | 44 | 35 | 32 | -3 |
Jarrod Berry | BL | 44 | 35 | 32 | -3 |
Anthony Scott | WB | 34.5 | 28 | 31 | 3 |
Mason Cox | COLL | 33.5 | 28 | 30 | 2 |
Sam Berry | ADEL | 41.5 | 33 | 29 | -4 |
Jarrod Brander | WCE | 43.5 | 35 | 28 | -7 |
Leo Connolly | STK | 42 | 33 | 28 | -5 |
Tyler Brockman | HAW | 26 | 20 | 27 | 7 |
Marc Murphy | CARL | 46.5 | 36 | 26 | -10 |
Scott Pendlebury | COLL | 30 | 25 | 26 | 1 |
Jason Johannisen | WB | 30 | 25 | 26 | 1 |
Harrison Petty | MELB | 30 | 25 | 25 | 0 |
Liam Ryan | WCE | 27 | 22 | 24 | 2 |
Connor Blakely | FRE | 31 | 25 | 21 | -4 |
Ben Ronke | SYD | 21 | 17 | 19 | 2 |
Trent McKenzie | PORT | 14 | 12 | 19 | 7 |
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti | ESS | 15.5 | 13 | 17 | 4 |
Shaun Burgoyne | HAW | 19 | 15 | 16 | 1 |
Jared Polec | NMFC | 25.5 | 20 | 12 | -8 |
Eddie Betts | CARL | 10.5 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
Alex Keath | WB | 8.5 | 7 | 10 | 3 |
Oleg Markov | GCFC | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
David Mackay | ADEL | 7.5 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
Hayden McLean | SYD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jake Riccardi | GWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Josh Caddy | RICH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sam Mayes | PORT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nakia Cockatoo | BL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matt Guelfi | ESS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tom Sparrow | MELB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cooper Sharman | STK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
LEGEND:
Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.
Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.
Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.
Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.
Download the full breakdowns:
Round 19 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)
Round 19 Summary (General Categories)
Download the quarter-by-quarter scores:
Round 19 Quarter-By-Quarter Scoring (Raw Scores)
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I love your enthusiasm in trying to work out this black box conundrum. I have two thoughts on CD.
1) their score weighting is related to score/time of game. They must have multipliers on individual stats (kick, handballs, goals etc.) for when a team is ‘x’ points behind or ahead, and how long to go in a game. The issue is you have no way of knowing what these multipliers are, or how many there are. For example, a game that has a margin under a goal with 10 mins to go will have less favourable scaling than the same margin when there is 2 mins to go. Ultimately, there are just way too many variables to input
2) even with the knowledge (or lack thereof) of the above, trying to attribute a logical process to CD may be impossible. This is CD remember, the same guys who rate Mason Cox as elite
I love your endeavour, but you may be fighting a losing battle, unless you can find a way to open the CD black box (employee leak hopefully) to find out what’s inside <3
Not always the case. I’ve seen many times where a defender (Jake Lloyd anyone) has chipped the ball around the backline when the game is already decided, but still rack up a pile of junk time points
See my second point haha
You might well be right. I’m going to see if I can have another go this week by splitting the scores into more fine-grained chunks of time than just quarters. But if that doesn’t work then it would suggest there are weightings for things other than just stage of the match, in which case we might be stuck there.