Scoring Anomalies – Round 20

Last week, I had a go at weighting the scores on a quarter-by-quarter basis, without a lot of success.

Alfred made the good point in the comments that it’s likely that CD weights things according a more sophisticated pattern, with more variables, than just assigning different weights to different periods of the game, and that it’s probably too hard to reverse-engineer this in its entirety.

I still think that there’s a good chance we’ll be able to get reasonably close if we break the game down into smaller chunks than quarters, but I think he makes a good point: barring something miraculous, we’re going to bump into a limit in terms of how accurate we can get this thing.

But before I throw in the towel and admit defeat, I’m adjusting the system so that it breaks the game down into much smaller periods (I was thinking of defining periods as the time between changes on the scoreboard – let me know in the comments if you can think of something better). I was hoping to have that done in time for this week, but, sadly, it’s not. Sorry, people!

In the meantime, I’ve still included the quarter-by-quarter scoring spreadsheet at the bottom of this post; like I said, it’s not really fine-grained enough to use for weighting the scores, but it might still be useful to somebody.

 

Name	Club	Raw	Linear-Scaled	Actual	Diff
Andrew Brayshaw	FRE	208.5	183	190	7
Zach Merrett	ESS	212	172	168	-4
Clayton Oliver	MELB	190	157	166	9
Jack Steele	STK	212	167	158	-9
Rowan Marshall	STK	190.5	150	158	8
Jaeger O'Meara	HAW	206.5	153	156	3
Karl Amon	PORT	190	148	152	4
Sydney Stack	RICH	151.5	133	149	16
Christian Petracca	MELB	168.5	139	148	9
Adam Cerra	FRE	146	128	147	19
Cameron Guthrie	GEEL	176	149	147	-2
Jack Crisp	COLL	183.5	141	143	2
Zach Guthrie	GEEL	173	146	142	-4
Touk Miller	GCFC	171	141	142	1
Sam Walsh	CARL	168	132	141	9
Luke Jackson	MELB	159	131	141	10
Chad Wingard	HAW	189.5	140	139	-1
Max Gawn	MELB	179	148	138	-10
Jordan De Goey	COLL	179.5	138	138	0
Tom Mitchell	HAW	185	137	132	-5
Jack Macrae	WB	154.5	129	131	2
Brayden Maynard	COLL	169	130	130	0
Bailey Dale	WB	167	139	130	-9
Callum Mills	SYD	182.5	148	129	-19
Caleb Daniel	WB	158	132	128	-4
Aaron Hall	NMFC	153.5	130	128	-2
David Mundy	FRE	148	130	126	-4
Steele Sidebottom	COLL	154.5	119	123	4
Tom Liberatore	WB	148.5	124	123	-1
Jake Stringer	ESS	144	117	123	6
Jordan Dawson	SYD	150	122	122	0
Jacob Weitering	CARL	136.5	107	122	15
Jarryd Lyons	BL	155	115	121	6
Harris Andrews	BL	135	100	121	21
Jack Silvagni	CARL	152.5	120	120	0
Matthew Kennedy	CARL	154	121	120	-1
Taylor Adams	COLL	136	105	119	14
Tom Stewart	GEEL	147.5	125	118	-7
Hayden Young	FRE	130.5	115	117	2
Daniel Rich	BL	138	102	117	15
Justin McInerney	SYD	151	122	116	-6
Sean Darcy	FRE	132	116	116	0
Ollie Wines	PORT	160.5	125	115	-10
Tom Doedee	ADEL	116	97	114	17
Luke Davies-Uniacke	NMFC	130.5	110	114	4
Oscar McInerney	BL	149.5	111	113	2
Dion Prestia	RICH	133	117	113	-4
Ned Reeves	HAW	153.5	114	112	-2
Joel Selwood	GEEL	133	113	112	-1
Tim English	WB	137.5	115	111	-4
Luke Parker	SYD	133	108	111	3
David Swallow	GCFC	144.5	119	110	-9
Brodie Grundy	COLL	156	120	110	-10
Alex Neal-Bullen	MELB	128.5	106	110	4
Jack Payne	BL	153.5	114	109	-5
Reilly O'Brien	ADEL	160.5	134	109	-25
Jake Lloyd	SYD	127.5	103	108	5
Darcy Parish	ESS	146	118	108	-10
Nick Haynes	GWS	138	108	107	-1
Harry Perryman	GWS	126.5	99	107	8
Liam Baker	RICH	118	104	106	2
Jack Ziebell	NMFC	119.5	101	106	5
Isaac Smith	GEEL	125.5	106	106	0
Brayden Fiorini	GCFC	128.5	106	106	0
Bailey Smith	WB	126.5	106	105	-1
Zach Tuohy	GEEL	130	110	105	-5
Nic Naitanui	WCE	114	88	104	16
Jy Simpkin	NMFC	137.5	116	104	-12
Bayley Fritsch	MELB	91.5	76	103	27
Lachie Hunter	WB	108	90	103	13
Peter Wright	ESS	120	97	103	6
Ben Brown	MELB	108.5	90	102	12
Rory Laird	ADEL	130	109	102	-7
Zak Jones	STK	134.5	106	102	-4
Harry McKay	CARL	100.5	79	101	22
Sam Draper	ESS	133.5	108	101	-7
Jeremy Howe	COLL	109.5	84	101	17
James Worpel	HAW	141	104	100	-4
Rory Sloane	ADEL	112	94	100	6
Charlie Dixon	PORT	122.5	96	100	4
Dyson Heppell	ESS	126	102	100	-2
Andrew Gaff	WCE	128.5	99	100	1
James Harmes	MELB	124.5	103	100	-3
Connor Blakely	FRE	97	85	99	14
Travis Boak	PORT	133.5	104	98	-6
Luke Breust	HAW	102.5	76	98	22
Josh Bruce	WB	102.5	86	98	12
Isaac Heeney	SYD	118	96	98	2
Toby Nankervis	RICH	110	97	97	0
Jack Scrimshaw	HAW	138.5	103	97	-6
James Peatling	GWS	108	84	97	13
Sam Taylor	GWS	110.5	86	96	10
Tom Hickey	SYD	113	92	96	4
Daniel McStay	BL	144	107	96	-11
Jack Henry	GEEL	111.5	94	95	1
Hugh McCluggage	BL	121	90	95	5
Luke Ryan	FRE	112.5	99	95	-4
Zak Butters	PORT	132	103	94	-9
Chris Mayne	COLL	111	86	94	8
Josh Kelly	GWS	133	104	94	-10
Bailey Williams	WB	103	86	94	8
Tom Papley	SYD	97	79	94	15
Kyle Langford	ESS	116.5	94	93	-1
Ryan Burton	PORT	116.5	91	93	2
Jayden Short	RICH	96.5	85	92	7
Lochie O'Brien	CARL	121	95	91	-4
Jeremy McGovern	WCE	109	84	91	7
Noah Anderson	GCFC	95	78	90	12
Josh P. Kennedy	SYD	110	89	90	1
Steven May	MELB	98	81	90	9
Dane Rampe	SYD	103.5	84	90	6
Paddy Dow	CARL	99	78	89	11
Tom McCartin	SYD	105.5	86	89	3
Tom McDonald	MELB	96	79	89	10
Jake Lever	MELB	110.5	91	89	-2
Patrick Dangerfield	GEEL	111.5	94	88	-6
Tom Lynch	ADEL	99.5	83	88	5
Will Hoskin-Elliott	COLL	122	94	88	-6
Patrick Cripps	CARL	143.5	113	88	-25
John Noble	COLL	115.5	89	87	-2
Lachie Schultz	FRE	98	86	87	1
Isaac Quaynor	COLL	119.5	92	87	-5
Lachie Whitfield	GWS	109	85	87	2
Marcus Bontempelli	WB	98	82	87	5
Angus Brayshaw	MELB	94.5	78	87	9
Dylan Moore	HAW	90	67	86	19
Dayne Zorko	BL	118.5	88	86	-2
Shaun Higgins	GEEL	101	85	85	0
Connor Rozee	PORT	110.5	86	84	-2
Matt Rowell	GCFC	111	92	84	-8
Jed Bews	GEEL	105	89	84	-5
Jason Johannisen	WB	94.5	79	84	5
Matthew Parker	RICH	85.5	75	84	9
Miles Bergman	PORT	102	80	83	3
Lance Franklin	SYD	92	75	83	8
Ed Curnow	CARL	93	73	83	10
Dylan Shiel	ESS	102.5	83	83	0
Mark Blicavs	GEEL	104.5	88	83	-5
Elliott Himmelberg	ADEL	96	80	82	2
Conor Nash	HAW	114	84	82	-2
Charlie Ballard	GCFC	126	104	82	-22
Trent Rivers	MELB	104.5	86	82	-4
Caleb Serong	FRE	102	90	82	-8
Luke Dunstan	STK	103.5	81	82	1
Riley Bonner	PORT	110	86	82	-4
Josh Walker	NMFC	87	74	81	7
Trey Ruscoe	COLL	133.5	103	80	-23
Brad Sheppard	WCE	92.5	71	80	9
Jamie Elliott	COLL	85	65	80	15
Nick Hind	ESS	98	79	80	1
Zac Fisher	CARL	97.5	77	80	3
Todd Marshall	PORT	100.5	78	79	1
Xavier O'Halloran	GWS	86	67	79	12
Brodie Smith	ADEL	93.5	78	79	1
Sebastian Ross	STK	120.5	95	79	-16
Jacob Hopper	GWS	92.5	72	79	7
Brad Close	GEEL	97	82	79	-3
Isaac Cumming	GWS	94.5	74	78	4
Daniel Lloyd	GWS	102	80	78	-2
Nathan Wilson	FRE	88	77	78	1
Peter Ladhams	PORT	96	75	78	3
Xavier Duursma	PORT	92	72	77	5
Riley Garcia	WB	101	84	77	-7
Tom Hawkins	GEEL	73	62	77	15
Todd Goldstein	NMFC	95.5	81	77	-4
Tim Membrey	STK	108.5	85	77	-8
Tom Williamson	CARL	101.5	80	77	-3
David Astbury	RICH	88	77	76	-1
Jamie Cripps	WCE	110.5	85	76	-9
Ryan Lester	BL	103.5	77	76	-1
Jack Newnes	CARL	94.5	74	76	2
Liam Shiels	HAW	92.5	69	75	6
Trent McKenzie	PORT	93.5	73	75	2
James Aish	FRE	87.5	77	75	-2
Jack Billings	STK	94	74	75	1
Jaidyn Stephenson	NMFC	89.5	76	74	-2
Max King	STK	80	63	74	11
Shane Edwards	RICH	83	73	74	1
Brad Crouch	STK	101.5	80	74	-6
Sam Collins	GCFC	79.5	66	74	8
Jake Kolodjashnij	GEEL	77	65	74	9
Darcy Byrne-Jones	PORT	93	73	74	1
Anthony Scott	WB	90	75	74	-1
Nick Blakey	SYD	82.5	67	73	6
Rhys Stanley	GEEL	86.5	73	73	0
Brody Mihocek	COLL	104	80	73	-7
Tom J. Lynch	RICH	69.5	61	73	12
Luke McDonald	NMFC	84	71	73	2
Jake Waterman	WCE	110.5	85	73	-12
Curtis Taylor	NMFC	81	69	72	3
Jordan Roughead	COLL	102	79	72	-7
Scott Lycett	PORT	96.5	75	72	-3
Devon Smith	ESS	86.5	70	72	2
Bradley Hill	STK	94	74	72	-2
Nic Newman	CARL	98	77	72	-5
Jack Higgins	STK	105.5	83	71	-12
Leo Connolly	STK	82	65	71	6
Cody Weightman	WB	88	73	71	-2
Callan Ward	GWS	115.5	90	71	-19
Matt Taberner	FRE	75	66	71	5
Tim Kelly	WCE	91.5	70	71	1
Jack Martin	CARL	86	68	71	3
Jack Graham	RICH	73.5	65	71	6
Ben Keays	ADEL	85.5	71	71	0
Andrew McPherson	ADEL	99	83	71	-12
Quinton Narkle	GEEL	83	70	71	1
Willem Drew	PORT	103.5	81	70	-11
Lachie Neale	BL	98.5	73	70	-3
Dom Sheed	WCE	96.5	74	70	-4
Tom Highmore	STK	106	83	70	-13
Lachlan Murphy	ADEL	95	79	69	-10
Jack Lukosius	GCFC	82	68	69	1
Dylan Grimes	RICH	78.5	69	69	0
Sam Menegola	GEEL	81	69	69	0
Jayden Hunt	MELB	93	77	69	-8
Brandon Starcevich	BL	92.5	69	68	-1
Atu Bosenavulagi	NMFC	69	58	68	10
Errol Gulden	SYD	76	62	68	6
Shannon Hurn	WCE	94	72	68	-4
Harry Cunningham	SYD	77	62	68	6
Sam Frost	HAW	95.5	71	68	-3
Mitch Hannan	WB	90	75	67	-8
Brent Daniels	GWS	87	68	67	-1
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan	WB	58.5	49	67	18
Jack Madgen	COLL	90.5	70	67	-3
Robbie Fox	SYD	89.5	73	67	-6
Paul Seedsman	ADEL	88.5	74	67	-7
Daniel Howe	HAW	72	53	67	14
Mitch Lewis	HAW	89	66	66	0
Ryan Byrnes	STK	89	70	66	-4
Jack Redden	WCE	96	74	66	-8
Kane Lambert	RICH	80.5	71	66	-5
Josh Thomas	COLL	84.5	65	66	1
Gary Rohan	GEEL	65	55	66	11
Jack Viney	MELB	89.5	74	66	-8
Tom Phillips	HAW	77.5	57	66	9
Ryan Garthwaite	RICH	71.5	63	66	3
Zac Langdon	WCE	87	67	65	-2
Travis Colyer	FRE	77	68	65	-3
Mitch Robinson	BL	94	70	65	-5
Toby Greene	GWS	76.5	60	65	5
Josh Dunkley	WB	70	58	65	7
Chris Burgess	GCFC	79.5	66	64	-2
Josh Honey	CARL	79.5	63	64	1
Shane Mumford	GWS	88.5	69	64	-5
Josh Rotham	WCE	71.5	55	64	9
Griffin Logue	FRE	71	62	64	2
Finlay Macrae	COLL	81.5	63	63	0
Trent Cotchin	RICH	91.5	80	63	-17
Jared Polec	NMFC	72.5	61	63	2
Rhyan Mansell	RICH	81	71	62	-9
Sam Flanders	GCFC	71	59	62	3
Jesse Hogan	GWS	64	50	62	12
Jake Kelly	ADEL	67	56	62	6
Liam Duggan	WCE	66	51	62	11
Oliver Florent	SYD	80	65	62	-3
Dylan Clarke	ESS	77	62	62	0
Jy Farrar	GCFC	104.5	86	62	-24
Charlie Spargo	MELB	69.5	57	61	4
Sam Reid	SYD	79	64	61	-3
Kysaiah Pickett	MELB	83.5	69	60	-9
Callum Ah Chee	BL	72.5	54	60	6
Tom Green	GWS	66	52	59	7
Liam Jones	CARL	70.5	55	59	4
Adam Saad	CARL	86	68	59	-9
Connor West	WCE	79	61	59	-2
Tom Fullarton	BL	89.5	66	58	-8
Tom Jonas	PORT	86.5	68	58	-10
Oliver Henry	COLL	58	45	57	12
Kayne Turner	NMFC	77.5	66	57	-9
Tim Taranto	GWS	69	54	57	3
Harrison Petty	MELB	68	56	56	0
Robbie Tarrant	NMFC	74	63	56	-7
George Hewett	SYD	75	61	56	-5
Dean Kent	STK	66.5	52	56	4
Tim O'Brien	HAW	85.5	63	56	-7
Shai Bolton	RICH	66.5	58	56	-2
Ben McKay	NMFC	65.5	55	55	0
Sam Wicks	SYD	71	58	55	-3
Will Phillips	NMFC	64.5	55	55	0
Trent Dumont	NMFC	62.5	53	55	2
Tom Cutler	ESS	70	57	55	-2
Blake Hardwick	HAW	85	63	55	-8
Will Hayward	SYD	65	53	55	2
James Rowe	ADEL	49	41	55	14
Daniel Rioli	RICH	73	64	54	-10
Hunter Clark	STK	60.5	48	54	6
Mitch Crowden	FRE	69	61	54	-7
Ned McHenry	ADEL	65.5	55	54	-1
Grant Birchall	BL	83.5	62	54	-8
Alex Sexton	GCFC	63	52	54	2
Orazio Fantasia	PORT	59.5	46	54	8
Will Snelling	ESS	74.5	60	54	-6
Josh Schache	WB	55	46	54	8
Lachlan Bramble	HAW	67.5	50	53	3
Jack Ross	RICH	64.5	57	53	-4
Easton Wood	WB	65.5	55	53	-2
Aliir Aliir	PORT	64.5	50	53	3
Roarke Smith	WB	63.5	53	53	0
Darcy Fogarty	ADEL	58	48	53	5
Jordan Ridley	ESS	59	48	52	4
Jake Bowey	MELB	61.5	51	52	1
Jack Riewoldt	RICH	55.5	49	52	3
Jed Anderson	NMFC	61.5	52	52	0
Darcy Cameron	COLL	78.5	60	52	-8
Josh Corbett	GCFC	42	35	51	16
Sam J. Reid	GWS	65	51	51	0
Zac Smith	GCFC	59.5	49	51	2
Callum Wilkie	STK	52	41	51	10
Dan Houston	PORT	83.5	65	51	-14
Elliot Yeo	WCE	75.5	58	50	-8
Zac Bailey	BL	75.5	56	49	-7
Harry Edwards	WCE	63.5	49	49	0
Nakia Cockatoo	BL	67	50	49	-1
Tom Cole	WCE	68.5	53	49	-4
Lachie Ash	GWS	71	55	48	-7
Jason Castagna	RICH	59.5	52	48	-4
Nathan Kreuger	GEEL	50.5	43	48	5
Will Hamill	ADEL	53.5	45	47	2
Josh J. Kennedy	WCE	64.5	50	47	-3
Ben McEvoy	HAW	74	55	47	-8
Dan Butler	STK	66.5	52	47	-5
Paul Hunter	STK	50.5	40	47	7
Mason Redman	ESS	58	47	47	0
Aaron Naughton	WB	33	28	46	18
Harry Schoenberg	ADEL	74	62	46	-16
Joel Western	FRE	49.5	43	46	3
Jordon Butts	ADEL	57	48	45	-3
Bailey Scott	NMFC	59.5	50	45	-5
Connor Idun	GWS	52.5	41	45	4
Trent Bianco	COLL	65.5	50	45	-5
Charlie Curnow	CARL	56	44	45	1
Tom Sparrow	MELB	68	56	45	-11
Nick Larkey	NMFC	42.5	36	44	8
Lincoln McCarthy	BL	59.5	44	44	0
Sean Lemmens	GCFC	45.5	38	44	6
Harry Himmelberg	GWS	53	41	44	3
Jimmy Webster	STK	60.5	48	43	-5
Jack Darling	WCE	54.5	42	43	1
Luke Dahlhaus	GEEL	47.5	40	43	3
Jack Petruccelle	WCE	52	40	42	2
Jack Bowes	GCFC	56.5	47	42	-5
James Madden	BL	57.5	43	41	-2
Darcy MacPherson	GCFC	59.5	49	41	-8
Tyler Brockman	HAW	60.5	45	40	-5
Taylor Walker	ADEL	59.5	50	40	-10
Joe Daniher	BL	49.5	37	40	3
Christian Salem	MELB	55.5	46	40	-6
Zaine Cordy	WB	56	47	40	-7
Darcy Tucker	FRE	47.5	42	40	-2
Mitch Georgiades	PORT	59.5	46	39	-7
Jack Ginnivan	COLL	50	39	39	0
Denver Grainger-Barras	HAW	63	47	39	-8
Ed Langdon	MELB	59	49	39	-10
Ben Ainsworth	GCFC	51	42	39	-3
Liam Henry	FRE	56	49	38	-11
Tobe Watson	FRE	51	45	37	-8
Josh Treacy	FRE	39	34	37	3
Eddie Ford	NMFC	52.5	44	37	-7
Phil Davis	GWS	43.5	34	37	3
Jarrod Berry	BL	47.5	35	37	2
Esava Ratugolea	GEEL	42.5	36	35	-1
Shaun Burgoyne	HAW	54.5	40	35	-5
Liam Stocker	CARL	40.5	32	34	2
Jack Mahony	NMFC	41.5	35	34	-1
Nik Cox	ESS	47	38	34	-4
Ben Long	STK	49	39	34	-5
Cooper Sharman	STK	56.5	44	34	-10
Oscar Allen	WCE	47.5	37	33	-4
Sam Durham	ESS	46	37	33	-4
Nick Murray	ADEL	52	43	32	-11
Mabior Chol	RICH	50	44	32	-12
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti	ESS	36	29	31	2
Jayden Laverde	ESS	38.5	31	31	0
Brandan Parfitt	GEEL	30.5	26	30	4
Charlie Cameron	BL	55	41	30	-11
Matthew Owies	CARL	34.5	27	29	2
Aaron Francis	ESS	40	32	29	-3
Sam Berry	ADEL	42	35	28	-7
Joel Jeffrey	GCFC	31	26	27	1
Jeremy Sharp	GCFC	26	21	27	6
Tanner Bruhn	GWS	37	29	26	-3
Lachie Plowman	CARL	29	23	26	3
Dougal Howard	STK	23.5	18	26	8
Wil Powell	GCFC	35.5	29	25	-4
Lloyd Meek	FRE	31.5	28	24	-4
Brandon Walker	FRE	27	24	24	0
Xavier O'Neill	WCE	21.5	17	23	6
Sam Powell-Pepper	PORT	32.5	25	23	-2
Tristan Xerri	NMFC	25.5	22	21	-1
James Bell	SYD	23.5	19	18	-1
Tom De Koning	CARL	20	16	18	2
James Stewart	ESS	20.5	17	18	1
Damon Greaves	HAW	37.5	28	17	-11
Jake Aarts	RICH	16	14	17	3
Bailey Banfield	FRE	20	18	17	-1
Chayce Jones	ADEL	10.5	9	15	6
Marc Murphy	CARL	25	20	15	-5
Kyle Hartigan	HAW	18.5	14	14	0
Ben King	GCFC	20.5	17	12	-5
Archie Perkins	ESS	18	15	12	-3
David Mackay	ADEL	20.5	17	10	-7
James Jordon	MELB	13.5	11	9	-2
Patrick Lipinski	WB	0	0	0	0
Dylan Stephens	SYD	0	0	0	0
Nathan Murphy	COLL	0	0	0	0
Keidean Coleman	BL	0	0	0	0
Jordan Clark	GEEL	0	0	0	0
Brayden Ham	ESS	0	0	0	0
Mark Hutchings	WCE	0	0	0	0
Josh Caddy	RICH	0	0	0	0
Shaun Atley	NMFC	0	0	0	0
Will Brodie	GCFC	0	0	0	0
Boyd Woodcock	PORT	0	0	0	0

 

LEGEND:

Raw: SuperCoach points, added up according to the formula put out by Champion Data, before any scaling.

Linear-Scaled: Raw points, multiplied by a multiplier (3300 / total raw points for the match) to get the scores in each game to add up to 3300.

Actual: Actual SuperCoach points, as awarded by Champion Data.

Diff: Difference between actual and linear-scaled points. In practice, this is how favourably or unfavourably a player was scaled – this is ultimately what I’m setting out to investigate.

 

Download the full breakdowns:

Round 20 Summary (General Categories)

Round 20 Full Breakdown (Stat-By-Stat)

 

Download the quarter-by-quarter scores:

Round 20 Quarter-By-Quarter Scoring (Raw Scores)

 

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