SuperCoach BlackBook 2019

Written by Schwarzwalder on July 22 2019

Wighty has lost all hope for his team this year with most League Finals slipping away.  He’s already focusing on next year, getting in early with the planning.  Wighty asked us in the Polling Station if anyone else had been looking ahead to 2019 with their Supercoach planning.

You’ll be able to come back to this thread in the future and see if you were right or wrong with your selections.

Apart from the obvious players (Mitchell, Gawn, Dangerfield, etc), I’ll be starting 2019 with young guns Clayton Oliver and Patrick Cripps.  Great temperament on both players and they just keep racking up the contested stats (very SC-friendly).  Plus I’ll be interested in the starting price of Aliir Aliir in 2019, just starting to find his stride now.

Which names have you already scribbled down for future reference?  Tell us all about it……………….


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53 thoughts on “SuperCoach BlackBook 2019”

  1. Zac Williams, Docherty, Cripps, TMitchell, Clarrie, Laird for premos, hopefully some new Mid/Fwds as McLean, Heeney will probably lose it.


    1. Williams could be an awesome pick and I would have started him this year if it weren’t for his injury but do you reckon Whitfield could take some points off him if he remains at half-back? He’s someone you have to probably pick at such a discounted price.


      1. i feel like Williams is a pure runner off half-back whereas Whitfield seems to play more of a ‘behind play’ role. i could be talking out of my arse, but based on that i would probably start Williams (as you say, he’ll have such a discounted price) and put Whitfield in the ‘future target’ folder.
        at current averages/situations they will start next year priced at:
        Whitfield: $542.9k
        Williams: $361.5k


        1. current price x .20/.30 = rough discount*
          current price – discount = rough starting price for next year*
          *It’s a rough price because we don’t know what the magic number at the start of the year will be

          Following that this would be Williams rough price:
          516,200 x 0.20 = 103,200
          516,200 – 103,240 = 413,000


    1. I just can’t see them giving Danger mid/fwd status. Hope they do but i just can’t see it happening.


  2. Locked at the moment:

    Hibberd (Hoping he gets back to old role)
    Dahlhaus (New club mid role)
    Tyson (New Club)
    Miles (New Club)
    Newman (New Club)
    Kade Kolo
    Brodie Smith
    Hall (New club)
    Barlow (New Club)
    De Goey
    Wingard/Rocky (IF DPP)
    Matt Crouch


      1. Brad should be priced around the 300k mark not bad for a bloke who will average high 90s low 100s would be a decent stepping stone


  3. Def – Doc, Laird, Webster & Lloyd

    Mids – Oliver, J Kelly, Cripps & Fyfe

    Rucks – Stef Martin ( had him last couple of years & has been great at a discount)

    Fwd – Wingard, Heeney, De Goey & Gray

    Hope that isn’t ridiculously expensive


  4. The Docherty’s & Williams’ are easy picks obviously, while I imagine Liberatore will be a 50/50 call dependant on price. But looking at the next emerging SC stars, 2019 might be too early for some of them but;

    D: Jayden Short, Aliir Aliir, Bailey Williams

    M: Tom Phillips, Anthony Miles (if he gets a trade), Hugh Greenwood (as a M/F)

    F: Jordan De Goey, Orazio Fantasia, Jed Anderson

    Some more speculative than others…


  5. Def: Laird/ Lloyd, Docherty ,Williams

    Mid: Oliver, Cripps, Fyfe, Kelly, Titch

    FWD: Danger, Gray, Anderson if below 400k

    Ruck: Grundy, Preuss

    I think we are a year too early for

    Short/Witherden/Anderson/Simpskin, Acres, Fantasia


  6. Outside the popular picks
    Jayden short and degoey are a lock, jed anderson if he’s m/f.
    Will watch Rory lobb during preseason if he is ruck/fwd but not sold on him.
    Pearce hanley might be worth a punt if his price is right.


  7. Hope he’s still at North as a back up but if Preuss was to look for greener pastures elsewhere he’d be a lock as a cheaper R2.


  8. De Goey
    Tom Lynch (If Cheap and if he leaves)
    Nankervis for the third year in a row, loved having him at a cheaper price this year
    Obviously Docherty
    Luke Ryan
    Bailey Williams (Price and Form)
    Martin (Price)
    Macrae (Just a gun)
    Corey Ellis
    Then a few obvious ones pending on price like Williams, Libba and a few others
    Parker on end season form
    Bont on end of season form
    Dawson Simpson??
    Wallis, Liking the look of him especially if he moves or someone from the dogs moves
    Brayshaws if he stays a defender
    Tom Stewart


  9. Locks:
    Gawn, Mitchell, Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, Oliver, Laird, Docherty, Lloyd, Sicily, Yeo, Smith, Westhoff, Brayshaw
    Whitfield(It gains DEF Status), Danger(If gains foward status), Martin(If gains foward status), Merrett, Z Williams, Simpson, McDonald, Hurn, Crisp, Higgins, Goldstien, S Martin, B Grundy, Gray, McLean, Bruest, Darling, Hogan, De Goey, Deledio, B Crouch, Pendlebury, Kennedy, Gray, Allir


    1. I made a similar reply in another post. Assuming you mean D Smith and A Brayshaw, and allowing for a 20% discount for Doch, these 14 “locks” total 7.767million. That leaves 2.233m for the remaining 16 players, or about 140k each.
      I managed to come up with a potential side that came in just under 10m on current values…thats the challenge !!


  10. DEF: Docherty and Williams will be very popular with discounts, will be interesting to see Williams run and carry post ACL as this was his forte. Otherwise Laird and Lloyd are lock for me – ultra consistent defenders. Whitfield will need some serious consideration if given defender. Might be worth holding off both GWS boys and see how they go.

    MID: Titch, Oliver and Cripps walk up starters for me. Probably Dangerfield given his average, consistency (1 sub 100 score this year, which was 94). Z.Merrett looks to be a 10ppg underpriced premium like Cripps was this season. Kelly, Macrae and Fyfe make for huge cases though. Libba/BCrouch would make for mid-priced M6 with premo scoring history.

    RUC: Ruck trends show someone won’t back it up but with Gawn/Grundy hitting their prime years it’s really hard not to start one. Maybe a Preuss or Darcy could be a cheap No2 to start before mid season upgrade if either get No1 ruck status.

    FWD: Not so excited about this line, feel like it could be similar to this season pending who retains/losses MID/FWD status.


  11. I’m pleased to announce that rumours of my demise in SC for this year are greatly exaggerated. My team, Sackwoosha!!!, is in 6/6 finals, including 2 Salamanders, and sitting on top of 4 leagues. Overall rank about 2000.
    My mind drifted to 2019 as I dont have to trade until the week of the finals, with four trades, only that smelly brown stain Robinson to deal with, and cash to get anyone I want…so, I started to think ahead.
    I posted a possible team elsewhere and copped a bit of criticism for its makeup, but have yet to see any alternative teams.


    1. I love that my leagues have the sort of reputation that warrants mentioning them seperately…


  12. With the stats on ruckmen backing up their great years being what they are, I won’t be starting Gawn or Grundy. Preuss, Sean Darcy, Archie Smith, and others could all be great options, should the right moves happen over the off-season. I think I’ll be swearing off set-and-forget rucks from now on: it’s just too hard to predict the top-2 rucks each year. I’d much rather save myself the money and stress by starting two cheap placeholders, and seeing how the chips fall.

    Moving on from the ruck, Docherty and Williams are two obvious choices. Though nowhere near their level, Brodie Smith will be cheap after his ACL-induced year off, and if he doesn’t play this year but stays on the Hawks’ list Grant Birchall will be *really* cheap.

    Allir Aliir has also stormed into my 2019 calculations in recent weeks.

    Kade Simpson will probably lose around 10 points per week with Docherty’s return, so I won’t be starting him. There is still a good chance he will find his way into my team during the season, however.

    Oh, and if I try to find some excuse to not start Lloyd, please ban me from the site.

    I know we all said this last year, but Harrison Wigg will be the must-have rookie of 2019. Nathan Freeman, too, if he can finally get his body right.

    Entering their third year, Zac Fisher and SPS are both interesting prospects, particularly if they can retain forward-status. I’ll be monitoring the ruck situation at GWS closely, too – if Rory Lobb is fit, and ends up being the number 1 ruck, then perhaps next year will be his year.


    1. Rule changes had been made to the ruck in recent years and Gawn/Grundy are a very good age. I don’t see them slowing down.


  13. I didn’t T/D your team but I will give it a go Wighty

    All players prices are based on this rounds prices. I have rounded them up or down to the nearest 50K.
    Rookies are priced at 125K
    This just makes it easier.

    D: laird $550k, Doc $550k, Williams Or Whitfield$500k, +5 rookies = 1.725 mil

    M: Titch$650k,Fyfe, Oliver ( $600k each),Macrea$550k, Dusty, M.Crouch (500k each)+ 5 rookies
    =$3.975 Mil

    R: Gawn $650K, Martin $550k = 1 rookie.
    = $1.325 mil

    F: Danger $600k, R Gray ,de Goey,($450k each) Mc Cluggage $400k. + 4 rookies.
    = $2.4 mil.

    Grand total of $9.425.000

    I know prices will change and I might be tempted by some expensive rookies. Thats why I left the $5ook wiggle room.

    I really like one of Brisbane’s early draft picks breaking out next year .M Cluggage?


    1. Nice work tragic. I love the idea of cash left over. 15 rookies a few too many…will there be enough of them ?
      This does highlight the folly of having 13/14/15 “locks”.


    2. Don’t base your prices for next year on their prices now. Prices are based on their average score for the year.
      For example Macrae is averaging more than Fyfe, Oliver and Dangerfield so he is not going to be cheaper.


  14. Doch, Short, Witherden

    Titch, Yeo, Dusty, Heeney, Merrett,

    Gawn, Grundy

    Danger, De Goey, Daniher

    Think Yeo and Heeney have 110+ potential as mid only players and think Merrett will be underpriced. Daniher will be very very cheap and could be a decent mid priced cash cow at the very least if fit


    1. I’ll be picking Oliver or Cripps as well but I wouldn’t say either are locks. I don’t like Fyfe at his price due to injury and suspension risk next year and I reckon Macrae will be a bit overpriced. I also favour Oliver over Cripps due to Cripps being slightly more injury prone.


      1. I agree about not having ‘locks’ at this point as a lot will depend on pricing and rookie availability.

        Regarding the ‘injury-prone’ comment, I don’t think that’s a fair comment:

        1) It’s a small sample size (this is Oliver’s 3rd season and Cripps’ 5th)
        2) They’ve both missed chunks of a season – Cripps at the end of last year and Oliver in the middle of the year before.
        3) Over the past three years (including so far this season), Cripps has played 53 games and Oliver has played 52.

        The difference for me is more their playing styles – Cripps takes a lot more knocks as he does not get a lot of help from his teammates with the contested, in and under stuff.


        1. I said slightly more injury prone, not that Cripps is injury prone. He’s missed more games due to injury in his career per season, his first full preseason was this year, meaning he has always been injured in a preseason for the first 4 years of his career and his game style is more likely to wear the body down than Oliver’s (even though Oliver is very very tough he gets more help and doesn’t seem to be as in and under). Based on those facts I think you have to agree that we would guesstimate that Cripps is more injury prone, however little that gap is. I started Cripps this year and would start the pair of them along with Titch, Yeo, Heeney and Dusty if I have the required money. Dusty will not be named in the forward line by the way, not playing there enough this year.


    2. I reckon you have a shout with Yeo and Heeney 110+
      I reckon Yeo is more likely
      Depending on price and the way he finishes I may just trade him in if he starts next year like a house on fire


      1. I don’t see a season in the future where I do not start Heeney. Averaging 105.8 if you take out the injury affected game and will go 120+ in a season where he as over 25 disposals per game. Yeo is in the same boat. I might start a more reliable high scorer than Merrett but those two and Dusty are non negotiables for me barring injury.


        1. Heeney & Dusty were 1st picked FWD / MID respectively & Yeo was 2nd picked DEF after Laird for me to start my team this year


  15. Hey coaches, does the G.O.A.T. rookie Michael Barlow have any SC relevance in 2019? Age and injuries make him too risky? Still carves it up in the NEAFL, saw he had an easy fiddy last game…



    1. if he doesn’t play again this year, he should be priced around $243k next year. Cash generator if he plays?!? but he is 30 already!



    As i promised earlier in the week, i have done some detailed analysis on starting prices for any given SC season. i’ve used a sample size of 62 players and have gone back 5 years in some cases just to make sure (test/validate assumptions) and as far as i can work out, the following is true.

    FD’s magic number.
    at the start of every year, the SC algorithm sets a magic number for pricing. it appears that this number takes into account the history of every players’ SC score since day dot and has a significant bearing on how starting prices change from season to season. the more NEW players that play in a given season and the more points they score, the less impact on ‘inflation’ there will be (and vice-versa) for the following season, but without having access to all that data, we have to make some assumptions (based on the data that i can access). this is applied to all established players and rookies for the forthcoming season. it increases from year-to-year, a little like inflation, which is why our base rookie prices increase from c. $92k back in the ’80s 😉 to $102,400 this year.
    this year the magic number was approx. $5498
    in 2017 it was approx. $5438.7
    in 2016 it was approx. $5396.2
    interest rates over the last four-five years have fluctuated from a low of .43%, to a high of 1.1% (this year). for next year, i will assume the largest increase will be inflicted upon us. if we do that, we assume that the magic number will be $5558.478 in 2019. it will likely be less than that, but this way it serves its purposes for planning (ie we will likely overprice our desired premos, but i’d suggest by no more than $100) given the decimal range we’re working to.

    Right, now to pricing.

    You can get a pretty good indication now on the premos you like/want given that their starting price in 2019 will be their average at this season’s end x $5558.478.
    This ‘rule’ will ring true for ALL players who have played 8 or more games in 2018. There are no exceptions. It is for players who have played less than that, that discounts apply.
    an example: Dangerfield currently averages 116.5625. At that average,
    Starting Price in 2019 will be $647,900


    If a player plays less than 8 games then there are some generic discounts that apply (regardless of whether they are an established player or a rookie).

    6-7 games: if a player plays only six or seven games in a season, then you can calculate his starting price as above, but then apply a 10% discount (or multiply your answer by 0.9). there are no exceptions i can find.

    4-5 games: if a player plays only four or five games in a season, then you can calculate his starting price as above, but then apply a 20% discount (or multiply your answer by 0.8), again there are no exceptions i can find.

    0 games: for established players who miss an entire season (eg Docherty, Williams) you have to take their average from the previous year (2017) then calculate their starting price as normal, but then apply a 30% discount! Or multiply the answer by 0.7.
    Docherty in 2019 will be priced at: $446,300
    I could only find one exception to this rule over the last 5 years and that was Liberatore in 2016, who received a discount of 40%. All 13 players I looked at from last year, received the 30% discount, bar none.
    Rookies: Round1 draft picks who don’t play a game will be priced at the higher base-priced rookie, (ie $123,900 in 2018), while standard rookies will be priced at a discount down to and including the minimal rookie price (ie $102,400 in 2018).

    For one, two and three game players it becomes a little more complicated, but there are some rules. Start all calculations in the usual manner, ie average * magic number, then:

    Three-game players: there are two rules. Usual calculations apply, but
    If a player averages 50 he receives a 30% discount (yes, I know that seems counter-intuitive, but is correct)

    One and two-game players: again usual calculations apply (ave*5558.478), then:
    All players who average >70 from their two games receive a 40% discount
    Rookies who average between 50 and 70 receive a 30% discount
    Established players with the same average get a 20% discount
    Rookies who average <50 receive a 20% discount (but will not be priced less than the standard rookie price, ie $123,900 in 2018)
    Established players who average <50 are potatoes and should not be considered under any circumstances 😉

    Hope that makes sense and proves useful to those interested.


    1. Slight error at the towards the end there for those who play three-games in the previous season. It should read:

      Three-game players: there are two rules. Usual calculations apply, but
      If a player averages 50 he receives a 30% discount (yes, I know that seems counter-intuitive, but is correct)


      1. it’s done it again because www. thinks i’m writing in html format. Finally:

        Three-game players: there are two rules. Usual calculations apply, but
        If a player averages less than 50 he receives a 20% discount off starting price, and
        If a player averages above 50 he receives a 30% discount (yes, I know that seems counter-intuitive, but is correct)


    2. Look at you go! My Maths students always ask me “where will I use this in life”… I might just send them your way to explain the path to SuperCoach glory!

      And I’ll give them the magic number to put on their cheat sheets and hope it can come in handy while calculating the long side of the triangle or the volume of a sphere or something.

      You’ve obviously got some time on your hands Allsaints – much appreciated!


      1. Haha. I’ll call the Midwife if I ever get stuck 🙂

        Seriously though, I had a wonderful Maths teacher who taught Maths by using real-world examples to bring it to life. Result: A grades all through school and did a fair bit of stats at Uni. I still love doing it and I’m nearly 50!

        PS work is struggling a little tho!


  17. I’ll throw 2 names into the mix for R2:
    Lobb (might get DPP) and Lycett

    I’m locking in atm: Laird, Lloyd and Doc, Dangerfield, Martin, Titch, Cripps, Gawn and Grundy. The forward line will be the hardest line next year once again. Yeo will become a mid only, D.Smith, McLean and Heeney will all be mid only.

    Gaining DPP potentially:

    The next potential MPP to turn premium:
    Darcy, Taranto, Phillips, Worpel, SPP.


  18. YEh defense will be easy,
    Docherty, Laird, Whitfield

    Mid a bit harder, but the locks are
    Fyfe, Titch, Cripps, Oliver

    Rucks I’m going for
    Gawn, Lycett, (Preuss)

    And the forward DPP will be vital
    Dunkley, Billings, Lynch, Dangerfield



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