Kindly written and supplied by Brad
The Cats almost did the unthinkable last year, being up at half time in the decider, but it wasn’t to be. Now that Geelong didn’t win, we’ll just put an asterisk next to the year 2020 and give it the same weight as an Ansett Cup win–all in favour? Neighs? Only Richmond supporters? OK, asterisk added.
Looking at Supercoach, 7 Geelong players averaged over 100 last year, giving you plenty to think about. Dangerfield (113.9 – 17 games), Duncan (103.6 – 16 games), Guthrie (103.2 – 17 games), Hawkins (105.8 – 17 games), Menegola (107.8 – 17 games), Stanley (102.7 – 7 games) and Stewart (100.1 – 14 games).
The boys from Kardinia Park have the Round 12 Bye, along with Gold Coast, GWS, Hawks, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide. This is probably better than the Round 13 bye, but worse than the Round 14 bye, however nobody will want any of those players anyway, except maybe Fyfe.
They lost a guy most of you haven’t heard of in Gary Ablett Jnr, as well as Harry Taylor, both retired. Upper management have decided they’re going to have another big throw down at the title while Paddy is still able, so brought in what they hope to be the final touch, with J Cameron, S Higgins
and I Smith. I hope I pronounced that correctly.
Defence
Feeling Lucky No. 1: Tom Stewart ($538,000), Matty Scarlett’s love child again produced the goods last year with his second All Australian and keeping his SC trajectory going up (last 3 years 85, 98, 100). Although,
he may just have reached his limit, so you could be buying him at his full market price. BUUUUT, then we should consider that old Harry Taylor has hung up the boots so there’ll be another 3-4 intercept marks available each week and maybe Henderson’s are up for grabs too as he’ll be even more of
a lockdown backman. So Tom may be able to push up to 110 territory.
Feeling Lucky No.2: Jordan Clark ($241,800) could be listed here if he’s named for Round 1, but this spot has to go to Mr They-changed-the-rules-because-I-was-too-damn-good Blicavs ($531,600). That’s not his Christian name! Listed as both Defender and Midfielder, Mark averaged
a 98.9 throughout his 17 games last year showing his reliability, as he has played nearly every game since 2013. Any article about the Blitz must mention that he was once a promising Olympic middle distance runner. Check. He did break through the century back in 2015. Between then and last year though, the averages are less appealing (89.6, 81.5, 74.6, 82.7, 98.9).
Money Maker: Sam de Koning ($123,900) may come in as the tall defender to replace Harry Taylor, but I suspect he may come later in the year with Henderson, Blicavs, Henry and Kolojaz playing tall. But Zach Guthrie ($180,500) with his compromising pictures of the coach is likely to get first crack as he was relied upon in the finals last year and has filled out his 12 year old frame. Added bonus is he’s listed as a midfielder too.
Midfield
Lock and Load: Nil. Now that Danger is in the forward line, (shoot, now I’ve spoilt that one), there is no obvious choice. Duncan, Guthrie and Menegola are no certainties to improve on last year and you’d be paying top dollar. Best to wait and bring in as possible fallen premiums.
Feeling Lucky: Charlie Constable ($266,500) wants to play and play now. He’s only played 9 games with 2 of those coming last year. It’s hard to know if he’s in Geelong’s starting 22, but in 2019 he averaged 80. A lot of unknowns this year for a team that got to the end of the season, especially in the midfield. With Cameron pushing into the forward line, does that free Dangerfield to play in the mids? Where do Higgins, Smith, Selwood, Duncan, Guthrie and Parfitt play? If “Chooka” plays round 1, he’ll have
to perform!
Rucks
Feeling Lucky: Rhys Shanley ($551,900) averaged 102.7, but only over 7 games. This is the first time he’s broken the 100 average ceiling. If he can stay on the park, he doesn’t have any other Cat really looking to take the ruck mantle and has grown into a reasonable ruckman, kind of.
Forwards
Lock and Load: Patrick Dangerfield ($611,900) surely will be the anchor in every team’s forward line. A slight groin injury in mid-January had a few coaches pushing an early trade button, but it would be a brave soul not to take a guy that has posted the scoring history this guy has. And if you think that he’ll return to nearly permanent midfielder and just rest forward, then how will he not average 115+?
Feeling Lucky: Jeremy Cameron ($388,100) in his first year at the Cats, he could fit in nicely and return to his former Coleman winning ways. With Tom Hawkins holding down the full forward position and usually the best defender, this should allow “Jezza” to roam the forward line and just take marks from cute little passes from Higgins, Selwood and Parfitt. Actually, even I could do that! Cameron’s average average of 72.2 last year has him well under priced as he struggled like the rest of the Giants with hub life.
He could be expected to increase that by 15-20 points like 2017 & 2019.
That would make him good value!
Some last minute research has revealed Geelong will look to have a high rotation system with the late finish last year, back to standard games and
a well documented older squad.
“With the season finishing so late and starting again, I’d be surprised if anyone played the full season at all” said Joel Selwood, Geelong Captain, “…we don’t think any player should have to play all 22 (games)”.
So this may open the door to some younger players getting a run, but also lead to Guns that may turn out less reliable if they are to be rested.
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A great assessment of the Cats.