What a weekend of football! Popular trade-out options in Stephen Coniglio and, the week prior, Zak Butters both tonned up, as is the way in Supercoach-Land. Sought-after defensive downgrade targets in Buku Khamis and Rory Thompson, both burnt-coaches in their own ways (all the best Rory, you truly deserved a proper crack at it). Matt Rowell, Greg Clark, and Nick Martin, both popular on-field starters for owners, stunk it up. Lachie Whitfield missed due to an ankle injury (hopefully he’s back to his best soon, but boy do I feel bad for coaches that held). And of course, a plethora of coaches traded in Touk Miller for his very handy 59 points (and for those that captained, a minutes silence). So with the negatives come the positives. The Bont and Bailey Smith are all but guaranteed FWD eligibility come next weeks DPP updates. And finally, if staring at your team causes frustration and anger, I implore you, crack open that boost, burn those trades, and do what the heart says feels right! With that, Let’s get to The Fallen-Premiums Round 11!
“I’m going to let you in on a little secret about these trade-boosts. They’re not going to activate themselves.” – Jordan Belfort.
Defenders
Jack “The Ironman” Crisp (COL, 558.9k, (-$12.1k), 105.5 AVG, 122 BE, R14 bye) 173 consecutive games for the Man of Steele! Wait wrong nickname, wrong player, my bad, let’s try again… More durable than the tools in your grandfathers toolbox, Ultra-consistent scoring, with 7 consecutive tons and a 109.3 three-round AVG. For the season, Crisp is averaging 26 disposals (9.5 contested), only 70% efficiency, 511 meters gained, 5 clearances, 6 tackles and a goal every other game. It’s also nice to know exactly what you’re getting with Crisp. Finally, with the round 14 bye, Crisp also offers that extra cover during the byes in round 12 and 13.
Jack Sinclair (STK, 530.2k, (+$60.5k), 110.3 AVG, 67 BE, R12 bye) I know, not a fallen-premium by the textbook definition. However, after his hot start to the season, Sinclair has dropped a total of (-$40.k). Now, I know what owners and potential suitors alike are thinking. “Damn, I really wish he would cut his hair.” Just how sustainable is his scoring? Priced at 530k, Sinclair is insane value. Jack has been playing as a half back who rotates through the midfield this season, which has resulted in some amazing scoring (only having dipped below 100 on two occasions). Has the round 12 bye, but a BE of 67. Could jump on this week and ride the bye saving 20k or so, or wait til Round 13 to upgrade a Paddy McCartin or Sam DeKoning type.
And just as mysteriously as he appeared in our teams. This past round was time he now disappeared from them…
Backing it up….
Christian Salem, 515k, 203 BE (R14 bye)
Isaac Cumming, 546k, 162 BE (R12 bye)
Alex Witherden, 559k, 157 BE (R13 bye)
Scott Pendlebury, 529k, 142 BE (R14 bye)
Nick Vlaustin, 514k, 140 BE (R12 bye)
Angus Brayshaw, 468k, 138 BE (R14 bye)
Sam Docherty, 543k, 134 BE (R12 bye)
Midfielders
Comments that aged like wine….
Clayton Oliver (MEL, 659.5k, (-$12.5k), 126.4 AVG, 112 BE, R14 bye) last week I mentioned Clarry and noted something specific. I mentioned that Oliver’s ceiling is just as large as the one shown by Callum Mills this season. With that tidbit of knowledge and up against the Kangaroos, guess who I captained? You bet ya! Rory Laird….. Bravo to those coaches that did ride with Clarry this past weekend, and to the ones that finally brought Satan in. Clarry had a career-high 45 disposals, resulting in 178 points and a gut punch to non-owners. Has the final-bye, is currently below his starting price, is a Brownlow contender, bonafide gun and looks like Chucky from The Rugrats all grown up. Non-owners, bring him in!
Marcus Bontempelli (WBD, 587.5k, (-$64.2k), 112.7 AVG, 91 BE, R13 bye) the term “Bont scaling” was coined for a reason and was on full-display Saturday arvo (I know, I know, he scored 3 goals…) 9 clangers, 4 frees-against, 24 possessions (14 contested), going at 75% DE with 3 goals. This may not scream 130 point game to some, but for those familiar with the questionable scoring Bontempelli has received over the years, this wouldn’t come as a surprise. Anyway, largely going under the radar due to a plethora of Bulldogs options, the Bont has only dipped below 100 points once this season, is averaging 112.7 points and has a three round average of 123.3 points. However, the true appeal of the Bont comes from the impending forward eligibility. All but guaranteed, Bont needs to spend less than 5% of the game against the Eagles parked up front, to be granted DPP and help finish off our forward lines.
This sort of play wasn’t deemed acceptable even in the the 1980’s.
Tom Mitchell (HAW, 498.5k, (-$139.6k), 95.7 AVG, 125 BE, R14 bye) SC aside, I’m a huge fan of Mitchell and what he’s provided for the Hawks (call him a useless ball-winner, see what happens…. See what happens…) I mentioned a few weeks ago that his relevancy in Supercoach has finally fizzled, gone are the days of locking him in as a Captain. 129 points and a chance for suspension after a violent push in the back? on Jaxon Prior. However Titch was only seen at 48.6% of the centre-bounces and was once again at times left at half forward, while Sam Mitchell commits to playing the youngsters through the middle. A flu-effected 40 point game against the Dons has seen the once Super-premium dip below 500k. With the last bye I’ve seen a lot of people keen on Titch at M8, and I’ll once again say it, from what we’ve seen role wise, he isn’t SC relevant until those CBA’s and on-ball time improve. Could take the risk, use him as cover for the first two bye rounds. And worst-case trade him out in round 14 if he under-performs. However, I believe there’s better bang for buck elsewhere and wouldn’t be rushing to bring him in.
Sam Walsh (CAR, 609.2k, (-$27.9k), 116.6 AVG, 77 BE, R12 bye) backed up his performance last week with another solid score. If I was looking at Walsh as a trade-in target, I’d be waiting until after he has his bye next week. Offers a solid premium to help complete your midfield and help cover the round 13 & 14 byes. Walsh once again was only prevalent at 12 centre-bounces, but was just about everywhere else in the Friday night clash with the Swans. 133 points this week, and 149 points last week. At only just 21 years old, in a team fighting for top 4 contention. Walsh is becoming hard to ignore for us non-owners.
Limbo land….
Travis Boak, 530k, 190 BE (R12 bye)
Patrick Cripps, 577k, 179 BE (R12 bye)
Lachie Neale, 651k, 169 BE (R14 bye)
Hugh McCluggage, 573k, 169 BE (R14 bye)
Touk Miller, 605k, 167 BE (R13 bye)
Zach Merrett, 532k, 154 BE, (R12 bye)
Jack Macrae, 621k, 145 BE (R13 bye)
Andrew Brayshaw, 554k, 139 BE (R14 bye)
Rucks
Right up there with a last minute decision to start Mitch McGovern over Isaac Heeney…
Max Gawn (MEL, 580.4k, (-$77k), 112.6 AVG, 180 BE, R14 bye) a completely preemptive mention here for big Maxy. Rocketing down in price currently and looking to be cherry ripe for picking post-bye for coaches looking to bail from the Preuss-Express. Largely playing forward against the Eagles last week due to an injury concern, and was very inefficient this week against North. Gawn has continued to show that massive ceiling we’ve become accustomed to over the last few years, but has annoyingly been dropping out-of-character sub-tons. His role has largely remained unchanged from last season, with a similar share of ruck duties to 2021. For the small minority, and I know you exist. Do not trade Gawn out of your team.
Timberrr….
Max Gawn, 580k, 180 BE (R14 bye)
Sean Darcy, 592k, 164 BE (R14 bye)
Reilly O’Brien, 518k, 162 BE (R13 bye)
Forwards
Luke Parker (SYD, 540.6k, (-$51k), 103.4 AVG, 102 BE, R13 bye) was the talk of the media last week for no good reason IMO. Once again, led the Swans in CBA’s this past weekend with 24! And of course, a handy 26 possessions (only 9 contested) and a goal for 114 points. My personal take is that one of Heeney or Parker should find a place in your forward-line (yes even with the likes of English, Bont, Robbie McComb and Bailey Smith on the horizon). With Parker and the Swans facing the Tigers (who have bled points to opposition midfielders). Parker looks set to be a nice smokey VC option.
Isaac Heeney (SYD, 483.3k, (+$28.8k), 105.7 AVG, 99 BE, R13 bye) much like with Sinclair, Heeney had a monstrous start to the season and has cooled off over the last few weeks. Resulting in a (-$61.2k) reduction from his peak-price. In rounds 8 and 9, Heeney found himself with only 1 CBA and primarily parked up forward. Heeney still scored somewhat respectively due to his contested work those weeks. This past Friday against the Blues, Heeney found himself back playing in the midfield with a handy 15 CBA’s on top of it. If Heeney can continue to maintain a spot in the middle, he’s definitely one to consider after his bye in round 13.
Forward thinking….
Tom J. Lynch, 576k, 182 BE (R12 bye) *injured*
Taylor Walker, 464k, 122 BE (R13 bye)
Tim Taranto, 465k, 121 BE (R12 bye)
Shai Bolton, 463k, 119 BE (R12 bye)
Toby Greene, 398k, 119 BE (R12 bye)
Dylan Moore, 466k, 118 BE (R14 bye)
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Bont is very appealing, but with Dunkley, English and soon-to-be Bazza in my forward line, I’m thinking 4 dogs up front might be too many?
This isnt a one size fits all. But something along the lines of:
Pick 3: Dunkley (everyone has him), English, Bont, Bailey Smith
Pick 1: Parker, Heeney
Pick. 2: Brodie, Cameron, Butters, Coniglio (for those that held the last two.)
Obviously, this is a basic template, some have POD’s and different setups in their forward lines. But I do agree, 4 Doggies is a bit much.
Yep…just need a sudden run of the flu…or Covid…and you’re stuffed!
You just be a soothsayer Bailey Smith down with something this week – will there be more
Why would anyone get off the Preuss express? He’s had no sub-ton scores at all…
At the moment? It’s blasphemy.
In 4 or so rounds? A lot could have changed.
I agree CF, you’d want to see some change in Gawn’s output for him to be a must have after R14 bye…
Incorrect. He’s had 4 sub 100 scores … in rounds 1, 2, 5 and 10. 😉
Good call Roo, add round 11 too now FFS….
Goldy in? Aha
Thanks Abs. Bont’s score from last week was absurd.
Get him in your team right now people. He could have 12 posessions, 6 clangers and 150 SC points against the Eagles this weekend 😉
Please be careful guys, Macca might get triggered 🙂
Lmao. That PTS-not owning Bont-D.
Is Boak a sneaky choice for M8 following his bye?
He will be approx $490k and has 11/11 games available at that point. Most other premiums will have 10/11 games available.
Is the maths right that a 115 average from Boak is equal to 126 average from a player that still has a bye (115 x 1.1)?
Edit: Zach Merrett would fall into similar pricing and same bye.
I havent looked at your maths, I am assuming its right, but you are neglecting a couple of things.
Boaks current average is not 115.
His ave/3 rd ave/5 rd ave is 111.9/90.3/95.2 influenced by that 36 points vs North. Even taking the 36 points out as an outlier, his 3 round average becomes 107 and his 5 round average becomes 105.
And then there is this – it is the other premos 10/11 weeks PLUS whoever you fill in the other week with. If you fill that week in with a rookie getting 70 then your numbers become 115 vs 119.5.
But bring your numbers for Boak back to a more likely average from here on in of 105 (purely subjective on my behalf) then it becomes 105 vs 108.5
Do you think Boak will get within 3.5 pts average of other premo mids?
And do you think other premo mids will average more than 108.5?
Well said Dom
I strongly dislike the Boak pick. Zerrett makes more sense, but not sold on these cut-price choices this season. The extra trades and enhanced cash-gen has nullified the use of a sub-par M8 with most opting for an Andy Brayshaw, Petracca type.
Thanks – I missed the good-ol’ replacement points.
I don’t think I have to use a cut price M8 option this year but having a player who has pushed bottom end of premium status so cheap makes you have to consider. We all did it with Stephen May at $400k last year.
Gidday all,
sorry but ” The Fallen Premiums” has lost the plot.
Crisp, Sinclair, Oliver, Bont,Walsh, Parker are not ‘Fallen Premiums . I would have preferred to read about Doc be 134, Darcy be164, Rob be162, Boak be190, Merrett be154 . Doc & Merrett are the perfect ” Fallen Premiums ”
Long time member of SCT talk and they are just my thoughts.
Hey Willy, the players you listed all have a large BE and haven’t quite fallen yet, they’re more akin to “Falling-Premiums.”
In a couple weeks, post-bye and at rock-bottom. I will get to the likes of Doch, Boak & Zerrett. As Darcy continues his drop he’ll also get a mention as the ruck column is practically Gawn’s and his to share.
I just want to commend you two for having a civilised adult disagreement on a community forum. It doesn’t often happen these days, without throw the knives in.
Well done, tip top stuff fellas.
Gidday Abs,
fully understand your commets & in hindsight I could have worded my thread better. Look forward to next week.
No dramas at all Willy, I do appreciate the feedback. My best piece of advice when it comes to the players mentioned, would be to manipulate the byes, let them drop more in price and with question marks surrounding Merrett’s CBA load, Boak’s role etc. – we get extra data.
Essentially hold til after their bye in round 12, and try move guys like McCartin, De Koning, McComb to get them in round 13.
Haha. Good job with the images Abs – very funny!
Thoughts on the better trade in this week?
TU: Stewart to complete backline (G.Clark to play at M8)
TD: Walsh to complete midfield (SDK to play D6)
[Note: already have Cripps]
Put a longer version in the trade talk but tu) Bont and td) parker?
Thanks for this write up, I liked reading about bont walsh and parker
TU: Bont
TD: Sinclair
Which rookies do those two get off the field Dane? And how is your byes looking?
My definition of ‘Fallen Premium’:
Jarryd Lyons. Started at $640K – had a fabulous last couple of years.
Couple of bad scores in the first 10 rounds (not sure why?) that meant he’s dropped to $510K.
118 and 113 last 2 scores. Scottish suitcase out. Buy Buy Buy
Breakeven 70!