The Fallen Premiums – Rd 15

Written by MJ on July 10 2012

For those who haven’t been around the last few weeks, The Fallen Premiums is a list of guys who have averaged well in the past, but whether it be through injury, being played out of position, or a poor game somewhere along the track, have dropped heavily in price since the start of the season and now represent good value for money. With trades running low at this stage, you’re probably looking for someone with the potential and ability to crank out 100s without using an extra 1 or 2 downgrades to get there.


Brett Deledio $544,700; 115.36, BE 132.

Has only dropped $24k since the season opener, but was $615k four weeks ago, so if you’re one of the 44.50% of coaches who don’t have him, you’d better make your move now. Has a high breakeven at 132, but could go bananas against Gold Coast this week. Has scored a massive 279 more than the 2nd highest defender in terms of total points this season, so is well worth the extra coin over other premium defenders.

Grant Birchall $478,800; 96.58, BE 72.

There are plenty of quality defenders going around in the $470k-$500k price bracket and if you’re in the market this week for a straight swap Waters trade, Birch could be your man. Averaged 94 last season, and 96.58 this year you know what you’re going to get from him. Scores of 107, 102, 83, 113, 109 in his last 5, spell consistency. Corey Enright is still a decent pick for $485k, if you’ve already got Birchall, but it must be said that there will be better value top end premiums in coming weeks, Shaw, Scotland and Goddard all on the waiting list with high BEs. Don’t let a high breakeven put you off buying one of them if you’re looking for a Waters swap this week though as all are reasonably priced as it is (Of course, Goddard is suspended this week, so don’t grab him yet).

Sam Fisher $405,600; 84.89, BE 80.

Great value for a guy who averaged 99.2 last year and you just get the feeling he’s building steadily after returning from injury with 69, 81 and 88 in his last 3. Got 116 against the Lions at the Gabba last year, which is who the Saints have got this week. Dropped $132k since Rd1 and is probably my defensive pick of the round in terms of value for potential.

Chris Newman $384,400; 81.64, BE 56.

Gave him a good wrap last week for only a 74 against Melbourne, as he was tagged by Magner for most of the game. The Tigers have Gold Coast this week, and Newman dominated the game last time against them with a 154. I’d expect him to lift his average closer to his 98.8 of last season with Richmond’s kind run home.

Bachar Houli $360,300; 80.86, BE 51.

Now, I know he’s never quite been a premium before (ave 89.2 last year), but I feel he has to be highlighted at his current price. ($123k less than Rd1). Coming off 133 against Melbourne, when Houli scores well he goes big. 5 games of 30+ disposals last year resulted in 5 tons including 121, 149, 133, 131 & 148. Would recommend buying Fisher or Newman for not much more, but just thought I’d point him out as a left of field POD with potential.

Chris Yarran $293,300; 64.70, BE -32.

No, that BE is not a typo. Brought him into my team last week as a cheap replacement for Lee Spurr for a 114 straight up, which kept money in the bank for Goodes this week. If you’re tight on funds, he’s the best you’ll get for less than $300k and averaged 87.3 last season. Certainly has better potential than Mohr, Morris, Ellis, Bugg, who you can trade to Yarran at little or no cost.

Wait for:

Heath Shaw $498,900; 102.90, BE 128.

Heath Scotland $488,300; 99.54, BE 117.

Brendan Goddard $475,500; 101.46, BE 140. *suspended for 1 more week

Greg Broughton $412,000; 86.00, BE 129.


Scott Thompson $539,000; 117.79, BE 87.

Making the list three weeks in a row, you probably all know about him by now. Smashed out 143 against Port on the weekend and has GWS to play this week, with Freo, Brisbane, Melbourne and GC in finals. Still attractively priced.

Matthew Boyd $528,100; 112.43, BE 68.

The 63 in his price cycle is now gone with 133 & 123 in his last two weeks, and as a result you can pick up the Bulldogs captain at $98k less than Rd1. Playing Hawthorn this week, but has scored 100+ on the last 6 outings against them so I wouldn’t be too concerned. Barely ever misses a game either and plays his 200th this week.

Dale Thomas $505,100, 100.20, BE 96.

Averaged just short of 110 last year and averaged 118.44 in 2011 across all games against the opposition he is yet to play for the remainder of this season. A definite smoky option, as he’s only in 3.35% of teams.

Chris Judd $471,700; 105.85, BE 36.

With 126 in both his last two matches, Judd is looking the goods again after his shocker against Scott Selwood in Round 13. An absolute steal at his current price and I would class him as the best value midfield pick of the round. Has averaged a whopping 114.1 since SC was introduced in 2005! Should be around $500k after this week, so don’t hesitate in snaffling him.

Bryce Gibbs $424,200; 88.64, BE 56.

If you can’t afford Judd, Gibbs is an option at $50k cheaper. Averaged 107, 104.4 & 103 in the last three seasons, he may have found a bit of form with 102 and 103 in the last 2 games and has dropped $134k since Rd1. You never know what role he’s going to play each week though, so be warned as many have been burned by him this year. Would be a gutsy pick, but there is value here if Ratts decides to play him in midfield.

Plenty of good midfielders becoming bargains in the next few weeks, so if you don’t need to trade in a midfielder this week, you may consider holding out for:

*Gary Ablett $624,400, 132.33, BE 187.*

*Scott Pendlebury $620,400, 124.20, BE 176.*

*Marc Murphy $505,600; 104.25, BE 186.*

Nick Dal Santo $514,200; 104.86, BE 130.

Tom Rockliff $534,600; 108.43, BE 151.


Ben McEvoy $489,700; 98.38, BE 62.

Sam Jacobs and Jarryd Roughead have both gone up around $40k in the last few weeks after making the first edition of ‘The Fallen Premiums’, so you may be more inclined to go with this big man. Gone for 130 and 108 in the last two weeks after coming back from injury, he’s enjoying handling the bulk of the ruckwork, the role which he played brilliantly last season, averaging 101.2. Jonathon Griffin is another handy cheap option, but I can’t really class him as a fallen premium. Shane Mumford is still in rugged form and isn’t scoring that highly with Pyke in the team as well, so proceed with caution if you decide to pick him.

Wait for:

Todd Goldstein $519,600; 94.50, BE 117.

Shane Mumford $441,600; 82.00, BE 114.

Matthew Leuenberger $498,100; 70.33, BE 195. *returning from injury soon


Jordan Lewis $454,100; 98.08, BE 46.

Never really been a super premium, with 93.6 being his highest average before this season, but he still looms as a bargain on recent form. 103 and 130 in his last two will convince many to pick him this week, but you surely you can’t go past the next guy on the list.

Adam Goodes $446,900; 96.88, BE 47.

If Carrazzo was bargain of the round last week, then Goodes claims the title this week. Coaches such as The Hairy Cat were spewing that he scored so highly on the weekend, as he was expected to fall closer to $420k. Averaged 108.1 last season and if you take out his first week back from injury (in which he was subbed), his 2012 average jumps to 106. This is the cheapest he’ll get. Was $585,500 in Rd1 and you can get him in midfield if none of the Fallen Premium mids jumped out at you. Dual Brownlow medalists and four time All Australians don’t come around this cheap very often folks.

Colin Sylvia $390,500; 66.44, BE 38.

Justified his selection in The Fallen Premiums last week with a 103 against the Tigers and hence rose $35k. Still under $400k, this is your last chance if you were really desperate for him, but find the extra $56k for Goodes if you can.

Wait for:

Patrick Dangerfield $511,600; 107.93, BE 132.

Dustin Martin $433,800; 89.15, BE 31 *suspended for 1 more week.

Steve Johnson $493,600; 92.31, BE 126.


Anyone alarmingly obvious that I’ve missed?


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34 thoughts on “The Fallen Premiums – Rd 15”

  1. I’m loving these articles, MJ! Keep up the great work!

    I think you could have put in Brent Stanton. $489,700 for someone who has averaged 116.7 for the season sounds like great value to me.


  2. With very few trades, would you go Bruest to goodes and leave yourself 1 trade or is it a good swap


  3. Ok, I am in a hard spot. I would appreciate any input you guys could give me to weigh up the following decision regarding Buddy and Bartel being out. This decision may be the difference between 50K or zip!……… If you were ranked 34 in the competition, had 3 trades left, and had the following team :





    Would you:

    A -thumbs up) save your trades for finals. (currently undefeated in league so making the finals isnt an issue)

    B -thumbs down) go for the big prize by trading Buddy for Goodes and either Bartel to Swan, or Mcdonald to Stanton (and benching Bartel as a backup for the finals)

    I currently have 51,300 in the bank and the Franklin to Goodes would give me plenty of cash to get any of the top midfielders for Bartel.

    I am currently leaning towards saving my three trades and having Adams,Smith fill in for a few weeks but this may potentially cost me 100+ points a week, what you think?


  4. Great work again MJ.

    Is Yarran the Messiah or is he just going to be a very naughty boy when he gets injured or tagged?


  5. I’m thinking of trading rockliff to Thompson this week.
    Not a fan of sideways trades but rockliff is only playing one decent quarter each game and I’m sick of telling myself that he’ll come good


  6. 4 trades left.
    I have only one player left to upgrade (Porplyzia) and was originally going to upgrade him to Goodes. But I am left an agonising 8k short.
    Is it worth making a downgrade to allow this upgrade?

    Thumbs up- Worth it, complete the team with 2 trades left for injuries/suspensions.

    Thumbs down- Not worth 2 trades


  7. Trade out Buddy??? Or hold him.
    T/U Trade Buddy for Goodes
    T/D Hold Buddy
    Anyone else ou would suggest trading Buddy for?

    And also, who is the best replacement for Marley Williams, as he is out for the rest of the season.

    Thanks 🙂


  8. All right. Making two moves this week. Bringing in Goodes and getting rid of Giles. What’s the best move then:

    T/U – T Adams-Goodes and Giles-Jacobs
    T/D – Porps-Goodes and Giles-Nic Nat
    Comment – Cloke/Martin-Goodes and Giles-Cox


  9. Option 1. Porps has a great run in SC finals, so should provide better bench cover than Adams. Jacobs is a decent buy, but also consider McEvoy for your Giles trade.



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