Hard to decide what the highlight of this round was. Hawks winning the Clarko-showdown? Jack Lukosious sizzling from 65m out, which leads the question of whether Geelong are cutting too deep and are deliberately tanking? Port Adelaide getting shackled and sent behind bars in the fourth quarter? Or, the Dockers edging out the the Western Derby, doing backflips in celebration against a team struggling to field 18 players. My personal favourite however, was my rookies in SC out-scoring my so called “premiums.”
With regular programming resuming, It’s time to get those watchlists ready, and to start looking at when, and who you’ll be targeting in the upcoming rounds. Some great premium choices are slated to be found at a discount, and planning goes a long way in such a cohesive, and consistent, skill based game like Supercoach… Welcome to The Fallen Premiums, Round 4!
The person ruining my team this whole time has been….. Me? (No I didn’t trade Cox in, I’d probably have deleted my team if I did)
Defenders
Will Day (HAW, $402.6k, (+40.5k), 99 AVG, -6 BE)
Compared to every other player we’ll be discussing, Day has never been a premium, and hasn’t fallen, but he will definitely be a popular trade-in option this week. Just quickly, I will note that Day is slated to gain Mid/Def DPP in Round 6, making him a potential season long keeper as cover for both those lines. Noted previously that Day has actually had a proper pre-season under his belt this year, and heading into the season you can definitely tell. The role he’s currently rocking seems to be enough to have him score between 60-130 points, which will result in some quick cash-gen, with psuedo-premium scoring, can do a lot worse than bringing in Will Day this week for a Worpel/JHF-type of player, if there’s no pressing matters to deal with.
Jack Sinclair (STK, $595.5k, (-$30.7k), 97 AVG, 154 BE)
After a strong two rounds to the season, Sinclair dropped 63 points against the Dons, in what is largely attributed to a heap of uncontested possessions. The good news for non-owners, is that the 63 will stay in Sinclair’s price cycle for another two weeks, and two scores of 110 will see Sinclair drop to approximately 555k. I’ve slated two ideal times to pick Sinclair (as I think we all need to end up with him in our final teams), either in two weeks when he bottoms out, or after his bye in Round 12.
James Sicily (HAW, $608.4k, (-$16.3k), 107.3 AVG, 138 BE)
Another defensive premium that needs to be in our final teams. Sicily however doesn’t really believe in a stinker game, so the timing in regards to bringing him in doesn’t matter as much compared to others. Non-owners have largely been bailed out, against the Roos, Sic had a shocking start to the game, but still ended up with a casual 112 points. Has a BE of 138 heading into the Easter Monday clash, and a 115 score will see him dip just below 600k which is a great price for the consistent scoring that Sicily offers. Definitely look to bring him in whenever you can.
Backing it up…
Sam Docherty, 568k, 166 BE
Tom Stewart, 604k, 161 BE
Jack Sinclair, 595k, 154 BE
Hayden Young, 499k, 152 BE
Daniel Rioli, 492k, 151 BE
Angus Brayshaw, 514k, 148 BE
James Sicily, 608k, 138 BE
Midfielders
Marcus Bontempelli (WBD, $618.9k, (-$20.6k), 107 AVG, 141 BE)
Perhaps the best “89 point” game I’ve ever witnessed. The FA’s, and “clangers” hurt what should have been a monster score from the Bont. The good news for non-owners is that Bont has largely let them off the hook, and is still attainable for a healthy 620k. Tigers this weekend, I’m personally expecting a large game from him, and if he delivers as expected, look to potentially grab him before he rockets up in price.
Touk Miller (GCS, $639k, (-$23.4k), 109.3 AVG, 151 BE)
This beautiful man helped lead the charge against the Cats, sending the hapless Geelong to the bottom of the ladder. As a Hawks fan, I’d like the Cats to be investigated for deliberate tanking at this point. Touk with three non-ideal fixtures to kickstart the season has seen himself averaging 109 points, which is just an absolute let off. Has the Saints this week, with a BE of 151, we could potentially be looking at Touk being available at around the 600k mark. Has a favourable bye in Round 13, quite frankly, set Touk on your watchlist, and look to bring him in shortly!
Rory Laird (ADE, $662k, (-$41.9k), 103.7 AVG, 118 BE)
A pretty poor start to the season for Laird, to put it into context, LDU has scored 13 points less than Laird, having played one fewer game. Or I could take it a step further; Setterfield has outscored Laird by 17 points this season thus far… Now taking the horrid 50 points from Round 1 out of the equation, Laird has been Mr Consistent since Round 2 of 2022. The large score of 147 points against the Tigers will be out of his cycle after this weekend, and his breakeven should most likely rise, slating him for a few price drops to come through. Laird at around the 630k would be a great pickup, so keep a watch on how his breakeven is looking.
Limbo Land…
Will Brodie, 564k, 178 BE
George Hewett, 613k, 175 BE
Hugh McCluggage, 507k, 172 BE
Jack Steele, 604k, 160 BE*
Lachie Neale, 642k, 151 BE
Touk Miller, 639k, 151 BE
Jack Macrae 608k, 149 BE
Rucks
Brodie Grundy (MEL, $509.3K, (-$3.6k), 95.3 AVG, 75 BE)
I’ll quickly mention that in the first edition of FP this season, I wrote about Max Gawn in the Ruck section. Yep, we know how that turned out… Then last week, Darcy Cameron got the mention. So heading into the third iteration of the FP, this section is 2/2 for getting straight injured. Anyway, Sunday against Ladhams and Amartey, Grundy had an absolute Vintage performance. With many looking to move Darcy Cameron on, Grundy offers a great selection for those without the cash for Tim English. Gawn is the obvious elephant in the room, but with Grundy and the Dees facing the Eagles, Dons, and then the Tigers over the next three games. Until Max returns, I can see Grundy letting you ride that strong cash-gen, scoring as the best Ruck, and then turn that into whichever Ruck premium is looking the best, even Gawn himself. Let it be of note, I fully expect Tim English to be down with injury by then.
Timberrr…
Max Gawn, 622k, 217 BE*
Sean Darcy, 538k, 135 BE
Forwards
Stephen Coniglio (GWS, $552.4k, (-$5.3k), 102.7 AVG, 152 BE)
A hot start to the season for Cogs was halted by a poor 58 points against the Blues, and a dissent call against him that was a disgrace, and practically gifted the Blues the game. Take the 4 points and run Blues fans. Quite frankly, barring injury, Cogs is a must-have for your forward line, again it’s all about timing, you don’t want to buy high, sell low. GWS have the Bombers and Hawks the next two, I firmly have Josh Kelly getting any/and all significant attention over both Green and Coniglio, which is another tick to the Cogs pick. The role is great, and his performance against GWS was fine, but similar to Sam Docherty, poor usage really hurt his scoring. One to monitor, and grabbing him in Round 6, when you swing Sheezel & Ziebell into your defensive lines could be the play!
Forward thinking…
Tom Hawkins, 450k, 188 BE
Isaac Heeney, 497k 170 BE
Stephen Coniglio, 552k, 152 BE
Zak Butters, 504k, 143 BE
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Would be nice if they could all line up and drop one at a time. Not all at the same time.
Knowing Stewart, he probably won’t be a fallen premo because he will just casually pump out another 150+ score against Hawthorn
Would be hoping Finn gets sent to him if he’s on a tear. Can’t let Stewart just go about business as usual.
However, if we just dump kick into our F50 and don’t pay Stewart any mind, he goes 150+ easy lol.
Always a good read Abs, thanks for your research a laugh or 2 along the way!
Stewart and Touk are must haves for mine with the Cats Suns bye round this year.
I am bringing Grundy in for Cameron and am hoping the same pans out as you wrote – get that price up then off him to a premium like English or Witt’s when Gawn returns.