With Round 2 in the books, we have double the data to go off of heading into Round 3, as many of us look to collectively fix our teams up with a trade (or three).
Normal programming will resume shortly for the Fallen Premiums. Until then, we can once again have a look at the Table of Misery and under-priced players showing premium potential!
I’ve excluded players that are not on the bubble (Sam Walsh, BE 166 – breathing a sigh of relief). Once again, price predictions are theoretical.
|Player||Position||Breakeven||Projected price change||Projected price|
George Hewett & Dan Houston were both featured in last week’s write-up and both backed it up with solid outings. George Hewett (CAR, 399k, 124 AVG, -15 BE) will definitely be a popular trade-in target this week, with Dan Houston (PTA, 467.9k, 119 AVG, 37 BE) being a bit more of a point of difference selection. Who do we think goes larger from here-on out?
Hewett’s teammate, Sam Docherty (CAR, 533k, 122 AVG, 68 BE) after a major outing in RD 1, scoring 141 points in his return to football. Also, backed it up with a respectable 100 points. Docherty is definitely a nice POD with a major ceiling! Question is, without a proper pre-season, will he slow down as the season progresses?
Patrick Cripps (CAR, 454.8k, 147 Avg, -28 BE) after a huge AAMI score and a fit and firing Cripps was presented to us in pre-season, I said to myself, “Patrick Cripps will not be in my team in 2022” – a statement that aged as well as
Travis Boak, Tom Morris saying that ‘Fox backs him….’ Anyway, Cripps showed out with a monstrous 161 points, 2 goals, 11 clearances, 35 disposals, 23 contested and 83% efficiency against the Dogs on Thursday night, all while rocking a very stylish headband. Being the most traded in player this round, many seem to think he’s back to his super-premium days. If so, a super-premium midfielder at 454k is impossible to ignore. Can he keep it up? (I’ve always thought so)
“Ladies and gentleman, we got him” – The SC Gods.
Tom Green & Luke McDonald after a great round 1 for these two, they both showed exactly what you’d have wanted to see if you’re considering them. Luke McDonald (NTH, 372.1k, 114 AVG, -10 BE) for those unaware, will be given Def/Mid DPP in 4 rounds and will slot nicely into most people’s back lines. A true fallen premium that could most certainly get back to that ‘premium’ status. Tom Green (GWS, 430k, 137 AVG, -19 BE) went strong with 34 possessions, 16 contested, 6 clearances, 106 points and 1 hit-out. Yep, Leon Cameron played Tom Greene in the ruck for a brief stint. Surprised?
Andrew Brayshaw (FRE, 584.3k, 158 AVG, 26 BE) going into the season, there was a lot of speculation that Andy would break out into super-premium status. Well, he is definitely making a claim and left the 6% of his owners very happy with a whopping 189 points against the Saints on Sunday. Is Andy finally breaking into the top eight midfielders? Speaking of whopping scores, Lachie Neale (BRI, 543.2k, 169 AVG, -20 BE), the 2020 Brownlow Medalist, is back to his absolute best. Unfortunately for the “Neale C gang”, Lachie, with only 198 points, didn’t even crack the double ton… Poor effort! For non-owners, it’s not negotiable. Bring Neale in!
Travis Boak (PTA, 578.5k, 152.5 AVG, 33 BE) we’ve been waiting for this man to slow down and it never seems to happen. 33 years old and still pumping out 153 points in a losing effort to the Hawks. A super POD with only 2% ownership. Christian Petracca (MEL, 606.2k, 146 AVG, 62 BE) has started this season by picking up exactly where he left off. Petracca had, 6 marks, 14 inside 50’s, 6 clearances, 780 metres gained, 40 possessions, 17 contested, but only went at 52% efficiency. Still leaving Tracca with a healthy 129 points. With a Brownlow medal push on the horizon for Christian, keep an eye on his efficiency, as if he can clean it up, he’s going to be a must have Mid!
Tim English & Luke Jackson: I wouldn’t be surprised if these two become the new “Gawndy” in a few years. Both popular trade-in targets this week as coaches look to free up funds from Max Gawn (BE 204) who’s unfortunately started the season slow. A trade I’m not too fond of… Tim English (WBD, 482.6k, 111 AVG, 60 BE) punched out a conservative 99 points and was beaten by Pittonet in the contest. However, his work around the ground was once again impressive. 1 goal, 6 marks, 24 disposals, 9 contested with a solid 88% efficiency is a solid outing for a ruckman. Ruc/Fwd split will be a close watch with Stef Martin not far away from returning to the Doggies line-up. Luke Jackson (MEL, 389.8k, 112.5k, 3 BE) was phenomenal. 16 HO’s, 2 goals, 5 marks, 21 possessions, 11 contested, with 76% efficiency. It’s no surprise that he churned out a massive 137 points. Is this the season Luke Jackson puts his hand up and enters premium status?
Isaac Heeney (SYD, 454.5k, 140.5 AVG, -15 BE) with many opting to grab Cripps this week, who’s priced identical. Heeney luckily looks to sneak under the radar for those that started him. As long as he stays fit, his role and the eye test suggest he’s a lock for top 6 FWD’s this season. Zak Butters (PTA, 443.6k, 125 AVG, 9 BE) is another player who looks set to finish in the top six after scoring 114 points in round one and 136 points against the Hawks.If you are not one of the 48% of owners, consider moving heaven and earth to get him in.
Adam Treloar (WBD, 483.2k, 95 AVG, 93 BE) a somewhat popular pick with 18% ownership, after a subpar 79 points, Treloar rewarded owners with an increased CBA load (with Bailey Smith missing) and 111 points in round 2. A proven SC scorer, definitely one to keep an eye on for non-owners. And finally, Mitch McGovern (CAR, 256k, 55 AVG, 40 BE) just kidding… If you were silly enough to start him like myself, we can rejoice knowing it isn’t the end of the world. Tristan Xerri (NTH, 208.2k, 96 AVG, -77 BE) and Will Brodie (FRE, 224.3k, 88.5 AVG, -46 BE) both with major scores make excellent trade-in options before their prices skyrocket.
Someone had to say it.
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30 thoughts on “The Pre-Fallen Premiums – RD 3, 2022”
Great little write up abs, thank you!!
I have Tom Mitchell on the chopping block this week he is absolutely gone and Whitfield 50/50. I don’t think I have the plums too go McDonald but I do like the pick if you can squeeze him in your midfield for 4 weeks til his DPP comes in he has that juicy role that he had 2 seasons ago and dominated. I just can’t squeeze him in my mid structure at the moment.
Titch to Crippa or Brayshaw for me If I don’t believe Cripps is top 8-10 mid.
Whitfield too probably hall.
Solid trades if you go that way. Hall pretty much guarantees 110+ weekly while he’s on the park. And from how it’s looking, that’s at least a 20+ point increase from Whitfield.
Titch an interesting one. The worst start to a season he’s ever had. I fully expect him to start pumping out solid scores as the season progresses. But I completely understand switching him to Andy / Cripps, banking the cash and letting Titch plummet in price for the time being.
Yeah I’ve watched Titch very closely in both round 1&2. He just looks slow uninterested almost and making clangers and looks to be drifting forward too much and doesn’t impact the game. I was actually very shocked he had a game high 20 CBAs for the Hawks. I have no doubt he bounces back but when?! I don’t think I can wait til the byes for it too happen. I’m not sure if he’s carrying that groin still or it’s a slight role change under Sam Mitchell but back to back 80s and genuinely looking bad scares me.
Trying not too get sucked into Whitfield -> bowey too! As he may make a stack with Salem’s role but it’s costing two trades. What are people’s thoughts on that move to bowey..
Yeah can completely understand moving Titch. Hasn’t show much at the moment to suggest he’s going to turn it around ASAP. And in the mean time he will plummet significantly. Don’t mind switching him to Cripps, banking the cash.
Bowey is a very interesting one. Lever looking to return this week. He scored a monster score against GC, but GC have been letting opposition defenders score well regardless. Salem went down very early in Round 1 and Bowey churned out a 58 that game. I wouldn’t be expecting much above 70 from Bowey.
Here’s how defenders have scored v GC thus far.
McGovern 115 / Nelson 95 / Barrass 75 / Hurn 86 / Foley 98
Round 2: Bowey 151 / Tomlinson 109 / May 108 / Rivers 80
Thanks Abs – started my morning with food for thought, and a laugh.
Glad you could enjoy.
Great combo with a morning coffee!
How soon do we forget the lessons of 2021 Tex Walker…..
Tex made 190k in 2021 from rounds 1-5.
I never had him but he was a great trade-in to make some quick funds for coaches. However, he definitely burnt owners that held him long term.
Hey abs, nice write up.
What are your personal thoughts on Luke Jackson?
Luke Jackson. (R1 – 88 : R2 – 137 : AVG 112.5, BE 3 & R/F DPP)
Bringing Jackson in @just below 400k is expecting him to be a keeper in your forward li e. The DPP flexibility he provides is nice as well to potentially cover injuries and covid related outs.
I’ll be lying if I said I’m not heavily considering moving Gawn to him to allow me to improve my team in ways moving Whitfield won’t let me.
Gawn was clearly effected by the heat, spilled marks and had terrible DE%. However, Jackson was just superb. One noteworthy piece of information is that Gawn & Jackson ruck split is pretty much identical to last season.
Jackson isn’t effecting Gawn’s scoring. Gawn playing poorly is effecting Gawn’s scoring.
For those on the fence (and rightfully so) – if Gawn scores 90 odd, he’ll drop 50-60k while Jackson scoring 90 off will net him 40k.
So all that information to say, I’m not sure lol. I love what the free 270k allows. But it’s a big risk…
More so than any other year there’s a wealth of candidates for side swaps that will net cash and possible point increases. There’s usually a clear candidate or two but this year i can think of a dozen that you could mount arguments as ‘must haves’. We can’t have them all (yet) so it’s gotta be about identifying the weaknesses in our squads and minimising the risks with those you bring in. Lots of the above names fit a ‘must have’ list but arguably fit better on a ‘geez i wish i started them but is it really worth burning a trade for them’ list.
With that logic Butters is surely a must have. Cheap, mid minutes, scoring a bomb. Screams breakout and screams F1.
Similarly, a combo of Trac/Neale/Cripps. They’re proven premiums that you can bring in with some level of certainty. If you started them all you’d be smiling but if you haven’t then you play the sums and get Crippa out of that trio cause he’s the cheapest. I wouldn’t suggest trading out other premos at all cost to get them, but if you’ve got an obvious candidate or some spare moolah they’re worth targeting.
Cogs/Brodie/Xerri all seem must have cut price midpricers too and are worth getting if you haven’t already.
For transparency my initial plans involve Gresham and Berry >> Crippa and Hayes.
Perfect trade Roo. Moving on from two slow burn Mid-pricers to a rookie that will shoot up in price and a keeper.
I agree with the sentiment.
The 3 players I named as must have were, Neale, Butters and Petracca later on as an upgrade target, if he keeps this scoring up and can continue to clean his efficiency up.
I wholeheartedly believe any teams without Butters or Neale will be left behind. Neale is looking like the super-premium version we were accustomed too at a cut-price $543k, while Butters is 100k cheaper, looking like a serious candidate to go 105+ and even finish as a F1-F2. Neale with 60% & Berry with 50% ownership.
Petracca is a watch and looking like an early upgrade target depending on how he’s tracking. Not must must have atm. I wouldn’t swap anyone like Titch / Steele / Clarry to him.
Berry to Caldwell
Not worth burning a trade over.
Alternatively, Whitfield and Ward to Young and Caldwell?
Trade Dusty to Nic Martin or keep Dusty??
Sounds like Dusty is out again this week with his future uncertain. I’d look at moving him.
Is there an actual reason to trade out Steele?
He hasn’t put it all together but also isn’t too disappointing, probably 20ppg or a 160 from a normal season. The tackles are there, a bit lower DE% and some clangers.
What am I missing?
Definitely hold Steele.
I still believe he finishes in the top 8 mids this season.
I am trading Steel to Cripps as I held Neale for way too long last year and got burned. I can’t see Steel outscoring Cripps and extra cash will allow me to upgrade to another premo round 6/7.
Find another way to get Cripps in, maybe downgrading a midpricer and upgrading a slow burner?
Poor decision. Sideways trade.
I get the immediate logic of trading Steele to Cripps. It’s a 231K bonus to your kitty. It can lead to some improvements now or in the next few weeks.
That said, it’s flawed logic lacking long term vision. Steele is a Brownlow favourite, an elite mid, a SC gun. You’ll want him in your final team and you’ll spend weeks struggling to find the cash to get him back in.
In Steele we trust. I’m keeping him, I do not believe that Cripps will be a premium mid by seasons end. Cripps is far too hand ball happy for my liking. I’ve gone Brayshaw. Besides, it will all end in tears for Carlton, as it always does.
Thoughts on Mcinerny from Swans to Bowey? I know he only played one round but he didn’t look great.
T/u – trade
T/d – keep
Whitfield -> hall
TMitchell -> Cripps
Whitfield -> bowey
Berry -> Cripps
Titch -> Brayshaw/petracca
$118k in bank
Say goodbye to
Comment both and keep McGovern