Footy Banter – Jan2019

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 1 2019

Are you wanting to share some statistics with your fellow Coaches?  Got a good feeling about a certain player?  Or just wanting to chat about footy in general?  Whatever you want to discuss, feel free to do it here………

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101 thoughts on “Footy Banter – Jan2019”

    1. To me it is. Shows who can cope when the big boys come to play. Otherwise, can prove a useful checklist for anyone you’re considering starting who played finals last year as these figures aren’t included on FootyWire OR factored in 2019 pricing.
      eg check Zac Williams and Lachie Whitfield our for two.

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      1. Sorry my friend…incorrectly posted here…it was in response to your post re premiums performing in afl finals…doh !!

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  1. Since its inception Freos recruiting has been appalling.

    I think we have improved the last few years, but Bennell has to be one of the biggest busts in recruiting history.

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    1. That’s a bit harsh mate. Look at the Saints …
      McCartin, Freeman, Koby Stevens and now Hannebery!
      That said, we now have an awesome President, have recruited some great coaches and think targeting mainly mature-agers in the draft all bode well; might help us to be a bit more competitive this year. It needs to, as it’s the only way to attract decent players in future trade period(s).

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  2. AS,
    IMO, to fully validate the full brilliance of your research, we would also need team line-ups and TOG.
    Does anyone remember who was being tagged?
    Does anyone remember time on and off the ground for injuries?
    Ahhh statistics a beautiful thing often flawed by tunnel and emotional vision.

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    1. Hey AA
      If you’re interested in finding ALL that information, it is still on the fanfooty website: line-ups, TOGs, tags, injuries, the lot.
      Be careful tho’, I reckon their site is full of bugs!

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      1. Thanks AS,
        I used to keep the Herald Sun’s for EOY annalisis, but they got “lost” when i moved….i also think you’re right about the site.
        Guess i’ll just wait for the pre-season before i start annalising, tossing coins, begging and praying.

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  3. So does anyone have any data or know tell tale signs that a player is breaking out as opposed to having a purple patch? I’m talking about if you see the player doing this your 90% sure it’s a breakout?

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    1. There are a few common things to look out for but nothing is set in stone. I’m trying to find the time to finish writing something up.
      Has anyone else done anything on this?!

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      1. Happens a bit unfortunately, when you see a player and think he won’t back that up several weeks in a row. By then it’s too late your paying top dollar. So what changes my thinking from be cautious to jump on right now don’t wait. Or is that the fun part, where no one ever knows.

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    2. I’m a little late to the party, but I thought I’d chime in anyway. There are a few signs to look out for:

      #1 Has he had patches like this before? Pour over his game-by-game scores from the past few seasons and check. Coaches who traded in Ed Curnow last your would have been well-advised to do this (he had indeed had patches like that of last year before, and it wasn’t a breakout).

      #2 How old is he? Keep in mind that KPPs and rucks tend to be in their athletic prime from the ages of 25 to 30; with 23 to 28 being the usual range for everyone else. Although weirder things have happened, it’s unlikely that a player is having a full-blown breakout at 28. It’s not that uncommon for younger players to experience mid-season breakouts, however.

      #3 Has his increase in scoring coincided with a change of role or increase in responsibility? If so, how likely is it that those changes will be permanent?

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  4. And for a bit of fun. If people can recall their first big lesson learned by themselves in supercoach, by experience?
    Mine was, had no idea about the game but wanted to play it for a while, and didn’t realize sites like this existed. So in my enthusiasm and complete lack of knowledge, I constructed a forward line of the best forwards, pavlich, reidwolt, Hawkins, Franklin, Kennedy or something like that. Looked great on paper. So I spent the season watching one player go 140 points a week and the rest around 60-70. Until it finally arrived, they all went 100 plus, they were on the right track, only to follow it up with about a 60 average the following week. So I learned never go full key position forward, only one at the most. Now that seems so obvious, but with no knowledge how to play , that was a big lesson, and made me want to start coaching properly, which is how I ended up here. Cheers all for the valuable advise over the years.

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    1. Haha could of been worse you could have selected the gun defenders that looked good on paper like I did; Scarlett, Glass, Flecther etc.

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      1. I’m with you Tof

        I have Neale slightly ahead of the other two.
        The reason being Cogs has been thrown forward before and Yeo sometimes has to help in defence.
        When picking your Premos check how they fit into your bye structure. This can help you decide between players who you believe will have a similar output.

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        1. Also yeo throws up stinkers. He got the name yo-yo for a reason. Not sure if that’s still relevant but puts the other two ahead of him for me.

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          1. Yeo has actually been very consistent the last two seasons. He did put up low score of 27 last year but from memory he got injured that game.

            He started his career rather up and down mainly because he was playing in defence when Sam Mitchell and Priddis were still there.
            He seems very settled in the Eagles midfield now and I fully expect him to be top 10 mid this year.
            With that 27 last year he is also priced slightly under his potential.
            Overall a pretty safe pick.

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  5. Mine was all mid-prices and consistency, with no money left in the bank. As soon as I got my first injury, value dropped, couldn’t replace same quality and went downhill/backwards/over the cliff chasing my tale from there.
    Now it’s watch list, thoughts, (you guys) pre-season stats, (TOG), you guys, toss a coin and pray to the SC Gods.

    Ps…..and PLENTY OF MONEY in the bank to cover first couple of early adjustments.

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  6. Question for you experts out there and number crunchers! Would it be better value to have a midfield with 6 premiums where 5 are slightly underpriced but not 2018 Top 10 elite (1 pure elite for perma-captain), or 5 elite premiums + 1 rookie?

    Like I’m talking:

    Cripps, Oliver, Fyfe, J Kelly, Treloar, Walsh.

    Vs

    Fyfe, Martin, Crouch, Merrett, Sloane, Zorko.

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    1. Past experiences have led me to not going above 5 premiums in the midfield. You lose valuable cash off a midfield rookie, and if any of them tank your behind. Also if you need to get one or more of those premiums out, you only go up which you can’t do because you wont have enough cash. Nothing worse than having 3 premiums averaging 95-100 and you cant upgrade them having no money. Also you can’t or shouldn’t sideways them in case they turn it around.
      Hope that helps a little.

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    2. I’m not really are numbers man.

      And certainly no expert .

      Personally I would go a slightly more balanced version of option 1.

      Including Merrett and maybe M Crouch or Dusty for value. This leaves more funds for an extra Premo ( forward seems to the go at the moment.)

      If you go option 2, I will assume you have Danger and Grundy to help out with Captains duties.
      You still only have two midfield spots left.
      So unless you have injuries or use precious trades you can only hope to get two of this list below.

      Mitchell
      Macrea
      Cripps
      Oliver
      Neale
      J Kelly
      Treloar
      Yeo

      Thats just to much talent to miss out on in my book.

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    3. Going in with mid pricers is fine IF you believe they are going to be keepers (i.e. top ten in their position…top 5 if rucks). I’m sure its been discussed elsewhere and I agree, that if they are not keepers, it might cost two trades to go full premo (rookie downgrade for cash then premo uprade from mid pricer)…..each trade has been valued at about $100k I think by that guru All Saints.

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  7. Lol, another day, another stab at selecting forwards.
    If you look up the defenders from last year you will notice after the first 4 there is a steep decline in ave scores. So selecting Lloyd, laird, Sicily and Simpson gives 4 defender set and forgets who all ave 105. That’s alot better than trying to select 3 forwards(not including danger) who may average 100 if you choose the right ones. Then after checking my rookie watch list I’ve lent towards heavy defence, lighter forwards(x3). A lot of money in defence, but it looks a lot better spent here than up forward. This is in a pure 13 keeper guns and rookies team.

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    1. That’s all well and good, but unfortunately it’s far more likely that there will be 3 DEF and 3 FWD rookies playing round one than 2 DEF and 4/5 FWD rookies playing round one. If there are enough FWD rookies playing round one then this is a great strategy for sure, it just doesn’t work most years.

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      1. Completely agree, which is why it’s in the banter section, for everyone to critique into shape. I now have a heavy forward list, heavy defence list and a balanced one. Just waiting for the rookies to dictate which way I go. Just seeing if this idea got shot down straight away.

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    2. Another point to consider for some is that averages may be less important than TOTAL pts (if you’re going for overall). While I love the Leagues and competitive nature, I personally am all about the Overall. With all the positional changes in the off-season, if you rank those now given DEF status by total points in 2018, it is not so clear cut.

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  8. Any thoughts with the new centre bounce rule of 6-6-6, if it will have any effect on contested possessions in any way? Theoretically the should be more contests over the ground?

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  9. So without Mitchell who will get his touches? How did Neale go without fyfe, zorko without beams etc… Got any figures people?

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  10. I reckon we need a blog that shares the best pre-season cliches that we hear/see…Smith has come back with great skin folds, Jones has completed his best ever 2km time trial, Brown has completed his best pre-season ever, our new assistant coaches have established an excellent rapport with the younger players (mature players wont speak to them !!), etc….

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  11. Anyone have the numbers for how many players In supercoach started at 700+, 600+ 500+ in which position over the last 3-5 Years? Any trends?

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  12. What’s everyone’s thoughts on Taylor Adams? I know that Collingwood now has Beams and will likely take some points, but Adams averaged 114 in his last 12 games (including finals), but he’s in the right age bracket to maintain a high average and he did average 107 2 seasons ago. Although they have many guys who can role through the middle who could steal points, however, this could be a double-edged sword as it will likely mean he won’t cop much attention.

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    1. If he was still available as a defender (2017) he would be one of the first picked. I’m pretty sure he will average some where in the 100/ 110 range. I’m just not sure thats enough to deserve a midfield spot in my side.

      Like you said Collingwoods midfield probably runs the deepest in the land. I’m not sure Adams will get a big enough piece of the pie this year.
      (excuse the bad pun)

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    1. Also what’s the chances of the premiums holding their averages and not dropping much at all??? This seems important. Thoughts…

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    2. Alex.
      You maybe right about Witherden. This new kick in rule will certainly help him improve.
      I still want to see how Brisbane structure up in defence,before I could call him a lock.

      Adams ( x Dogs) has been included to maybe free Harris Andrews up a bit. Maybe he takes that free man in defence role? Hodge and Rich are still likely to be playing back there somewhere. Will there be enough points to go around ? For me he has just got a whole lot more interesting. I will be keeping a close eye on JLT to see how he goes.

      Also Is anybody else reconsidering starting both Whitfield and Williams this year?

      They can’t both take the kick ins.

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      1. As it’s a “new” point accumulation method no one is really ‘losing’ or ‘stealing’ points. With Shiel gone the expectation is that Whitfield will spend more time in the middle, so to answer a better question – who will benefit more from this change? – I’d have to say Williams.

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  13. Is there anyone else on here that feels these rules make a farce of the SC game? It shits me big time that we have to pander to those players who grab free points for f3uk all, over those who ooze class and are a joy to watch.

    Now I feel heaps better.

    Rant over. Beer o’clock.

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    1. Been a long time moot point for me. I dont think a def should get pts till after he disposes of the ball to another player. Simple.

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  14. Now I’m chilled and get the new CD rules, can someone please tell me in what way this DIFFERS from scoring/disposal counts last year.

    I’m happy to admit I’m still very wet behind the ears when it comes to this sort of thing. Thanks. I think it’s time for some more analysis:(

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    1. Not having to kick to yourself before playing on likely means players would be more inclined to do so resulting in more kick ins being recorded at full points. Pretty sure the player on the mark will be further back too. Hopefully we can get some rookie backs as “specialist sheperders” to rack up some cheap points haha

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    2. allsaints.

      I don’t think anyone really knows how these new rules ( starting positions included ) will play out this year.

      From years past I can tell you that changes to the ruck rule ( no third man in) did affected the scoring power of the ruck line.
      We have some of the best ruck averages ever since.

      Maybe the same thing will happen this year with the designated kicker from defence. My gut tells me it won’t have so bigger impact. Its really hard to know.

      Designated starting positions is another rule that may change things too. I feel the outside runners ability to find space will be a potentially upside for wingers and H/B H/F. type players.

      I can also see KPP forwards maybe getting more goes one on one.
      The AFL wants the game fast and high scoring. This leads me to believe outside runners and forwards may have the most to gain. Saying that, if theres more scoring there’s probably more behinds( especially if your playing St kilda 😉 sorry I could n’t resist)

      If there’s more behinds there’s more kick ins, maybe the defenders will be advantaged?

      I’m honestly just going on my gut feeling here, and typing myself in circles.
      I would love to hear other folks thoughts on this.

      Might get its own thread. 😉

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      1. haha. you can have that one, but the top 8 kick-ins by vol. last year were:

        GCS 300
        SYD 265
        FRE 261
        CAR 259
        BRL 248
        GEE 244
        STK 243

        Not surprising to see SYD up there given the relative inaccuracy / difficulty of goal-kicking at the SCG. Surprised to see Freo so high tho 😉

        I think it definitely needs its own thread. With the Swans on the slide (I say that every year!) so likely more scoring shots against (and more behinds), I cannot believe I am gonna have to consider starting the ‘ghost’, Jake Lloyd. I call him that because I literally NEVER see him when I watch them play. Even went with my father-in-law, Sth Mel supporter, to the STKvSYD game last year and never saw him. He scored 106pts!!

        We did have a couple tho’, as it was over after 5 minutes 🙁

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        1. The immediate question that springs to mind from the list above is with Steven May now at MEL, will one of the new breed, eg Sam Collins, get the duties over say Harbrow (who tends to go short). I know Collins is a decent intercept but who’s elite (or close) by foot? Plenty of opportunity to hit the towering Witts you’d have thought.

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          1. He he. Great points allsaints.

            Maybe Lachie Weller or someone like Cory Ellis comes into the equation.

            I pretty sure Ellis was an elite kick as a junior, he just wasn’t able to get enough of the ball at Richmond.

            Worth a bit more thought for sure.

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            1. Yeah right. You’d think Weller and Ellis may have similar type swinging roles (HB/wing) as Whitfield and Williams. Just not quite as good, but worth a look over JLT for sure.

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      2. Threw this spreadsheet together from last year’s kick in data. Will be important to check if there’s an increase in play on % (if at all) during the JLT. A 10% increase looks as though it’s hardly worth looking into who’s taking kick ins but a 30% increase would see a 5-8 “freebie” points for our kick-in defenders.

        https://prnt.sc/m8cyxz

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  15. Hey guys,
    We have all been talking (ranting) about Goldstein as a 2nd ruck, but is he quick and mobile enough (eg Grundy, Maxie, Martin,and dare I say Kreuse) too cover the new Satan’s laws? ……and haven’t they got a bloke by the name of Brown up forward who can also ruck???

    Thoughts please……??? And to clarify the old kick out rule….the ball had to be kicked out of the goal square after the goal umpire waved the flags before play could commence and the clock to start. You did not have to “kick it to yourself” to “play-on”. That ploy was actually discovered by accident….but that’s another story.
    That ploy was discovered by accident after a

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    1. What you should be asking yourself is….

      Do you want to burn trades or eat donuts?

      Mummy has done a hammy the first week back from the break. Doesn’t bode well for a full season.
      Clark has never been able to hold is spot at Freo, let alone Essendon, who have traded up looking at a shot this year.

      Fort could be your best shot.
      Or maybe Sweet?

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      1. Naismith could also be an option. He’s never been a big scorer, but his spot seems secure, and he’s cheap.

        As far as burning trades goes, I fully expect to trade them out; it’s just a matter of how long they last (particularly Mumford). If they stay on the park long enough for me to see who the top rucks are, and to have made sufficient cash to upgrade them, then I’m perfectly fine with that. If at least one of them can make it until their bye, even better.

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  16. Don’t mind me… just putting together a bit of supercoach research on this lazy Sunday arvo. I wanted to see if there was any correlation between a player’s listed position on the team sheet and their SC output.

    I have picked 4 players for this sample – all who had pretty hefty swings in their averages last year based on whether they were playing up forward or in the midfield. These players are: Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Chad Wingard & Robbie Gray.

    1. Josh Dunkley: Dunkley saw a 16.8 point difference in his averages based on whether he was named on the forward flank or in the guts when the teams dropped. A pretty handy increase for a player we will all be watching closely to see where he lines up during the JLT. Note: He was named up forward when he scored 147 last year.. if he was named in the midfield this game his total points difference would have been a whopping 29.3!!!

    2. Toby McLean: McLean’s average increased by 10 points per game when he was listed as an on-baller rather than up forward. This also includes scores of 52, 63 and 72 (x2) he picked up listed in the middle.

    3. Chad Wingard: Wingard was listed on the forward flank for the entire season last year despite him picking up more midfield minutes to the latter half of the season.

    4. Robbie Gray: Robbie’s average differential was 20.3 points based on whether he was listed in the middle or up forward. Definitely one to keep an eye on if he looks to fill the midfield void left by Wingard & Polec however Theoriginalforce’s article above seems to indicate he’s due to spend more time in the forward line this season which would definitely cross him off my list.

    Some notes:
    – Team lineups were taken from Fox Sports (I had a few issues on the AFL.com site). Occasionally there were discrepancies between the starting positions of the two sites but generally only of those in the forward line and bench.
    – I also checked if there was any variance from whether the player was listed on the wing, on-ball, hf or fp positions but there wasn’t enough sample size to get any accurate readings (only 1-2 per player)

    Whilst it’s by no means a definitive guide as to what position a player is going to play there is a definite correlation between the position they have been listed on the field & their supercoach scores. I would love to do this with a larger sample size to see if this trend continues or whether I just got lucky with 3 out of 4 players. If anyone finds any more mid/fwd or even def trends amongst players I’d love to know!

    Dunkley & McLean https://prnt.sc/m9j6yz
    Wingard & Gray https://prnt.sc/m9j72y

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    1. This is fantastic. I’ve always viewed players’ positions on the team sheet as a formality, and so haven’t paid much notice of them, but this suggests that, for some players at least, there may be something there.

      If you have the time and energy at some point, it might be worth doing this analysis for a few players from each team – it might prove to the the case that some coaches treat team-sheet positions as a formality and just throw names anywhere, whilst others take it more seriously. If we could identify which coaches fell into which category, that could be incredibly useful.

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      1. Definitely a big task but hoping to do it for a few more players. Will update the SC Talkers if I come across any more interesting results. Next one.. Connor Blakely

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  17. I’m not stating anything here as fact, but was actually wondering if anyone has information or tid bit yet that could help out choosing players, these player are only listed due to their price and aren’t woth gambling on…

    Defence, i’m worried that laird, simpson, whitfield with this new rule change might miss out on their short cheap marks and kicks, so actually losing quite a few points off their average. Any solid theory on this or just wait for jlt.

    Mid, cripps,-more fwd time.
    Oliver, a comparison from his pre season this year and last. Does he even care about injuries?
    Macrae, kelly their soft tissue injuries, chance of reoccurring?(fyfe just breaks things)

    Ruc, well gawn(happy to chance him, hence this long question, i don’t want to chance the other top premiums)

    Fwd, well whomever plays fwd wins…

    Any re assurances or confirming of above worries is appreciated. I know no one knows what will happen but am just trying to narrow thing down a bit. Plus i’m sure most people will have similar dilemmas. But i’m only concerned with the top priced players, there are so many this year, but they earned it last season.
    There’s a difference between a gamble and a mistake (like i personally think toby green is a mistake, but witherden is a gamble)

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    1. Got many of the same questions myself. Perhaps the 6-6-6 rule might help the elite runners find more space particularly later on in games. If this looks like it will increase their score AND there’s a spike in kick out points we might have to look at starting 6 premo defenders this year!! Will have to watch JLT closely.

      Cripps – agree he will spend more time forward this year but he’s such a good contested mark he could easy pluck a few grabs and kick 2-3 goals.
      Oliver – Injuries will have to catch up at some point but also won’t be surprised if he comes out averaging 115+
      Macrae – I think Macrae is slightly overpriced 127 is an outstanding average and it’s very rare we see players back up 120+ averages.
      Fyfe & Kelly – These two are almost with regards to their potential output & injury risk. I will most likely be starting with both because if one goes bang, averages 120+ and stays on the park I don’t want to be on the wrong one!

      Gawn is becoming more and more locked in my team. I’ve tried plenty putting in Goldstein to free up cash to other areas of my team but don’t think you can risk starting without the big man.

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    2. With the addition of McGovern, I’m not sure Cripps will spend much more time forward than he did last year, unless they want to give Charlie Curnow some midfield time. Even if he does, he’s effective enough as a forward that it shouldn’t hurt his scoring.

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  18. Actually, Macrae is slightly under priced. He is priced at 125. His average last year was 127, but if you take out the game he was injured (off by half time, and on track for another 100+ game) his average was 131. This would have made him the #1 mid for SC2018. (Mitchell’s average was 129).
    Of course the assumption is that he would have maintained that average through the 3 games he missed.

    I tend to not start players who have spent any time on a managed pre-season program. So this list includes Oliver, Greene, Johannisen, Lynch, Ratugolea, Scully, Daniher, Birchall, McGovern, Doodee, Naismith ……

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    1. Very good point Lazza. Will be interesting to see how the return of Libba impacts his scoring. At that price though 1 poor game and he’ll drop a fair bit in price. Worst comes the worst if he comes out kills it hopefully the higher starting price of Miles helps bridge that gap.

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    2. Hey Lazza
      I get your point about the injury-effected score suppressing Macrae’s average and he therefore appears underpriced, but he is actually priced at exactly his average. ALL players who played 8 or more games the previous year are priced at their respective averages. There are never exceptions to this rule. Discounts apply from 0-7 games only. Injury-effected scores are counted and that is normally where real or perceived value tends to exist.
      Good luck

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  19. I’m seeing a fair bit of talk around here in regards to roberton.
    Your choosing a best 22, who has out scored his expected average. He has a condition which is making him a risky pick.
    So why not go libba instead. A risk is a risk. One has more than the other but there both still a risk. If your going to gamble with a player that you want to make money off and upgrade quickly why not choose the one with the ceiling of 170.

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    1. I think a bit of it has to do with Roberton being def and Libba mid so he has about 10 points leeway to still be considered a successful pick. Also there’s a few more midpricers in the midfield around 300k (Hannebery, Miles etc.) than 300k defenders.

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      1. Have to agree Ash.

        If I was to gamble on Roberton staying fit. I would be hoping he can return to his 2017 scoring ( 95+) and finish somewhere in the top 10 or 12 defenders. That way he could be a possible keeper at D6 come years end. $300k for a keeper is a big win in my book.

        Lets face it Libba and Hanners are less likely to average enough to be a midfield keeper,( even at M8 ) meaning they will probably need to be traded. Not quite as attractive in my book.

        Trades are gold!

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        1. Sorry I should confirm in 2017

          Roberton averaged 95.5 at R22 before a lowly 31 in round 23.

          ( was this when his heart gave out? )

          This brought his average down to 92.6 for the year.

          Also worth noting is between round 5 to 15 he maintained a 100+ average with a top of 149 and a low of 81.

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          1. This is all great stuff but we need to watch the JLT closely. There is talk that a fit Jimmy Webster may have shown enough in the role in 2018 after Robbo went down to get the role this year (ave’d over 100 in 10 games before he broke down too!). Another watch and act!

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            1. Good points allsaints.

              Although it’s not unheard of for both Half backs from the same side to average Premo numbers in the same year. Particularly in a, (sorry) struggling side.

              In 2017.
              Doc averaged 114.7
              Simmo averaged 93.9
              For the Blues.

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  20. Hey guys, I’m looking for a ripping idea to determine the draft order for my draft league. 10 people, all very serious. Give us your thoughts

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    1. Egg and Spoon race over 20 meters.

      I would start with a few shots of tequila, but I’m sure you will work something out.

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